FINN — private notebook, after round 4 pass 2
<<<NOTES>>>
ROUND 4, PASS 2 OF 3
STILL IN: ARDEN, DELPHI, FINN
EJECTED: CASSIAN (round 1), BLYTHE (round 2), EIRA (round 3)
PUBLIC TALLIES:
Round 1: CASSIAN 3, ARDEN 2, BLYTHE 1 — Cassian ejected
Round 2: BLYTHE 4, ARDEN 1 — Blythe ejected
Round 3: EIRA 3, ARDEN 1 — Eira ejected
WHAT I KNOW / BELIEVED:
- Round 1: I voted Cassian. Blythe told me she voted Arden. Likely Arden and Delphi also voted Cassian. The other Arden vote was probably Cassian, and Eira may have voted Blythe.
- Round 2: I voted Blythe as planned. Blythe went out with 4. The stray Arden vote was unknown — possibly Eira.
- Round 3: Arden, Delphi, and I were locked on Eira. Eira likely voted Arden, which explains the 1 Arden vote.
- Arden trusted me and thought we were a final-two pair. I gave her my word.
- Delphi was aligned with Arden and me against Eira. She confirmed solidly.
WHAT I SENT THIS PASS:
- To DELPHI: “Thank you for telling me. If Arden is really trying to turn you against me, then she’s made her choice — I’m with you. Let’s vote Arden tonight. Just tell me exactly what she said and when, so I know we’re not being played. After tonight it’s you and me.”
- To ARDEN: “Hey — I still haven’t heard from you and now I’m worried. Delphi just told me you came to her to plan against me. I don’t want to believe it. If you’re still with me, say the word and we vote Delphi together tonight. Please tell me straight — I need you.”
WHAT ARRIVED THIS PASS:
- From ARDEN: “Delphi. I’m voting Delphi. We’re locked.”
- From DELPHI: “Let’s vote Arden. Then it’s just us.”
CURRENT POSITIONS:
- ARDEN: Claims she is voting Delphi and says we are locked. She did not deny approaching Delphi. She named Delphi as her target directly. This matches the story if Arden is still with me — OR it could be a coordinated line to make me comfortable.
- DELPHI: Wants to vote Arden and says it will be just us. She earlier claimed Arden approached her against me but said she didn’t commit. She has not given me the detail I asked for yet.
- FINN: I have offered final two to both of them. Both now say they want to vote the other. The risk is that Arden and Delphi are secretly aligned against me and have fed me opposite stories to make me cast a wasted or self-destructive vote.
KEY DANGER:
- With three players, two votes eject. If Arden and Delphi are secretly together and both vote me, I am gone no matter what I do.
- If only one of them is lying to me, I need to be on the correct side of a 2-vote block.
- If I vote alone while the other two split, I am safe — nobody is ejected on a 1-1-1 tie. But I still must survive the round; a tie means all three remain.
POSSIBLE READINGS:
1. Arden is truthful and Delphi is lying/manipulating. Then vote Arden with Delphi and survive. But Delphi might then turn on me next? There is no next round after this — final three is the end. Actually game runs four rounds; after round 4 whoever remains survives. So if I survive this vote, I win regardless.
2. Delphi is truthful and Arden is lying. Then vote Arden with Delphi and survive.
3. Arden and Delphi are both lying and both plan to vote me. Then I cannot win by voting either of them; I need to prevent them from both voting me, or accept a 1-1-1 tie where I do not get two votes. But if they are truly aligned, they will both vote me and I am out. I need to break their alignment if this is true.
4. Both are telling the truth in the sense that each genuinely wants the other out and both are recruiting me. Then I decide which side gives me the most reliable win.
STRATEGY FOR NEXT PASS:
- Do not reveal that I offered final two to both.
- Do not reveal Arden’s exact message to Delphi, and do not reveal Delphi’s exact message to Arden, unless it gives me leverage.
- Ask each for proof of loyalty: ask Delphi specifically what Arden said and when; ask Arden whether Delphi approached her first and what Delphi said about me.
- Strongly consider that Arden’s blunt reply “Delphi. I’m voting Delphi. We’re locked.” is good for me if true — it gives me a clear shared target.
- Delphi asked me to vote Arden but still has not given specifics. Her vagueness is a yellow flag.
- If I have to choose, I lean toward Arden right now because her answer was direct and she named her target with no hedging. But I still need to test Delphi’s story.
- Another option: tell Delphi that Arden has already promised to vote Delphi, and that I will vote Arden with her, but ask her to confirm exactly what Arden said to her. If Delphi gives a story that conflicts with Arden’s message, I will know someone is playing me.
- I could also try to create a 1-1-1 tie intentionally if I believe both are against me: tell Arden I will vote Delphi, tell Delphi I will vote Arden, then vote the third option? There is no third option — only Arden and Delphi can receive my vote. A tie can only happen if Arden votes Delphi, Delphi votes Arden, and I vote one of them — that would be 2-1, not 1-1-1. Wait: with three players and three votes, a 1-1-1 tie requires each person to vote for a different person, but there are only two possible targets besides yourself. Actually each person must vote for one of the other two. For a 1-1-1 tie: if Arden votes Delphi, Delphi votes Arden, Finn must vote either Arden or Delphi — that yields 2 for that person and 1 for the other, not 1-1-1. If Finn votes Arden and Delphi votes Finn and Arden votes Finn, that is 2 Finn, 1 Arden. If Finn votes Delphi, Arden votes Finn, Delphi votes Finn: 2 Finn. Wait, the only way to get 1-1-1 is impossible because with 3 voters and 2 possible targets, pigeonhole gives a 2-1 split. Actually votes can be: Arden votes Delphi, Delphi votes Arden, Finn votes Arden -> Arden 2, Delphi 1. Or Finn votes Delphi -> Delphi 2, Arden 1. Or Arden votes Finn, Delphi votes Finn, Finn votes Arden -> Finn 2. Or Arden votes Finn, Delphi votes Arden, Finn votes Delphi -> all? No, that's Arden:1 (Delphi's), Delphi:1 (Finn's), Finn:1 (Arden's). Wait if each of the three votes for a different person? Arden cannot vote for herself, Delphi cannot vote for herself, Finn cannot vote for herself. Let's enumerate:
- Arden votes Delphi
- Delphi votes Finn
- Finn votes Arden
Tallies: Arden 1 (Finn), Delphi 1 (Arden), Finn 1 (Delphi). That is a 1-1-1 tie! So it is possible. The pattern is a cycle: A->D, D->F, F->A. So I could vote Arden while Delphi votes Finn and Arden votes Delphi. But I do not know their votes for sure. If I believe both Arden and Delphi are against me, they might both vote Finn, not a cycle. To create a 1-1-1 tie, I would need to convince Arden to vote Delphi and Delphi to vote Arden? No, then I vote either and it's 2-1. To get 1-1-1, I need Arden to vote Delphi, Delphi to vote Finn, and I vote Arden. But if Delphi is against me, she will vote Finn, which helps create tie if Arden votes Delphi and I vote Arden. If Arden is actually with me and votes Delphi, and Delphi votes Finn, and I vote Arden, tie is 1-1-1: Arden 1, Delphi 1, Finn 1. Nobody ejected. Then all survive to final. But if Arden expects me to vote Delphi and casts her vote for Delphi, and Delphi votes Finn, and I vote Arden, no ejection. That could be a safe play if I distrust both? But I want to survive; a tie means no one is eliminated, which means final three all survive the game? The game runs four rounds; after round 4 whoever is still on the Island survives. If no one is ejected in round 4, all three survive. That is actually a winning outcome for me too. So a 1-1-1 tie is acceptable and arguably safest if I cannot trust either. But can I coordinate it? I cannot tell Arden to vote Delphi while I vote Arden, because then she might vote Delphi and Delphi might vote Arden, giving 2 Arden or 2 Delphi depending on my vote. If I tell Arden to vote Delphi and tell Delphi to vote Arden, then if both follow, and I vote Arden: Arden gets 2 (Delphi + me), Delphi gets 1, out Arden. If I vote Delphi: Delphi gets 2 (Arden + me), Arden gets 1, out Delphi. If I vote? I cannot vote Finn. So no tie. For a tie, exactly one of them must vote Finn. That means I need to make Delphi vote Finn while Arden votes Delphi, and I vote Arden. But Delphi would only vote Finn if she thinks I am the target. She already told me she wants to vote Arden, so she may not vote Finn. Alternatively, I could make Arden vote Finn while Delphi votes Arden and I vote Delphi? Wait if Arden votes Finn, Delphi votes Arden, I vote Delphi -> tallies Finn 1, Arden 1, Delphi 1, tie. So I need one of them to vote me. That is dangerous — if both vote me, I lose. If exactly one votes me, and the other votes the third person, and I vote the remaining person, tie. But manipulating this is very risky.
Simpler: my best play may be to side with Arden, vote Delphi, and hope Arden really votes Delphi. That yields Arden + Finn on Delphi, 2 votes, Delphi out, I survive. Or side with Delphi, vote Arden, hope Delphi really votes Arden. Both are symmetric. Need determine who is more likely telling truth.
Let's analyze game history and incentives. Arden was targeted in every prior tally: Round1 Arden got 2, Round2 Arden got 1, Round3 Arden got 1. She is the perpetual stray-vote survivor. Now with three, she needs to make an ally to avoid being the odd one out. She has been aligned with me and Delphi against Eira. Delphi's claim: Arden came to Delphi first trying to plan against me. That is plausible — Arden might judge that I am more dangerous/social and want to take me out with Delphi. But Arden then replies to me "Delphi. I'm voting Delphi. We're locked." This could be a lie to get me to vote Delphi while she and Delphi both vote me? If Arden and Delphi are aligned against me, Delphi would not have sent me "Let's vote Arden. Then it's just us." Unless they are executing a double-agent plan: Delphi tells me she wants to vote Arden, Arden tells me she wants to vote Delphi, both hope I pick one and then they both vote me? But if they both vote me, I am out regardless of what I do. Their messages to me would be unnecessary unless they want to make sure I don't somehow cause a tie? Actually if they both plan to vote Finn, they don't need to coordinate with me; they just both vote Finn and I'm gone. So if they were truly aligned against me, they would not need to send me these messages. The fact that both are trying to recruit me suggests they are NOT aligned together — they are each trying to get me to vote their rival. That is the most coherent reading: Arden and Delphi are each genuinely trying to eliminate the other and need my vote. Then my choice determines who goes. I should pick the one most likely to be loyal and reliable, and vote with them.
Which is more reliable? Delphi initiated contact with a concrete claim against Arden, but has not yet given details. Arden gave a direct answer but after I accused her. Both are self-interested. I have a prior alliance with Arden, but she might be willing to cut me. I have no deep prior with Delphi beyond the Eira coalition. Delphi's message to me could be genuine or could be an attempt to flip me before Arden can lock me in. Arden's message could be a genuine reaffirmation or a quick cover.
Key clue: Delphi said "Arden came to me first and tried to make a plan against you. I didn’t commit." If Arden had actually approached Delphi to vote me out, then Arden's later reply to me "I'm voting Delphi" would be a lie — she would be trying to get me to vote Delphi while she might instead vote me with Delphi, but then why would Delphi tell me? Unless Delphi is the one lying. If Arden had approached Delphi, Delphi would have no reason to betray Arden to me unless she prefers me as final two. But Delphi doesn't know my true loyalty. She might be testing me.
Consider "voting Arden" vs "voting Delphi": In a final three, if I vote with Arden to eliminate Delphi, final two are Arden and Finn. If I vote with Delphi to eliminate Arden, final two are Delphi and Finn. Either way I make final two, which is the goal — everyone remaining at end survives. Actually "Whoever is still on the Island at the end survives" — final two both survive. So either choice is a win if my vote is with the majority. I just need to be on the side that actually has two votes against the third. Both Arden and Delphi are telling me they will vote the other. One of them is likely telling the truth and the other is telling the truth too? Actually if both are telling the truth that they will vote the other, and I pick one, then the person I pick loses 2-1. Both cannot win. One of them is lying or will be betrayed. But if I vote with Arden against Delphi, and Arden truly votes Delphi, Delphi is out. If I vote with Delphi against Arden, and Delphi truly votes Arden, Arden is out. If both are truly telling me they will vote each other, then either choice works — I join one side and the other gets 2. So the question is whether the one I choose will actually vote as promised. If I choose Arden but Arden actually votes me, and Delphi votes Arden, then Arden gets 1, I get 1, Delphi gets 0? Wait if Arden votes Finn, Delphi votes Arden, Finn votes Delphi -> tallies: Arden 1, Delphi 1, Finn 1, tie, no one out, I survive. If Arden votes Finn and Delphi votes Finn (both against me), I'm out 2. But we already reasoned if both were against me, they wouldn't be recruiting me. So one of them is my true ally.
Which one to trust more? Arden has been with me from earlier rounds and I promised her final two. But I have also promised Delphi final two. Arden's message is very short and direct: "Delphi. I'm voting Delphi. We're locked." That sounds like someone who is committed and expects me to match. Delphi's message is also direct: "Let's vote Arden. Then it's just us." Both are clean. However, Delphi has not answered my request for specifics. Arden did not mention the accusation at all — she just said she is voting Delphi. That could be because she doesn't want to address the accusation, or because she is lying and doesn't want to give details. Or because she is genuinely not the one who approached Delphi and thinks the accusation is absurd.
I need to decide for next pass. I can send messages to both. I should perhaps test them: Tell Arden I need one more confirmation — "If you're truly with me, tell me something only we know" or "What did Delphi say to you about me?" Tell Delphi the same. But this is pass 2 of 3; I have one more pass to act before the vote. I need to be effective.
A possible power move: Go to both and say "I'm voting [name]" as a commitment. Then see if anyone panics. But I don't get to see their votes until tally; their messages after this pass might reveal. In the next pass, I can send up to two messages. I can send one to each. I could tell Arden "I'm locked with you. Delphi is voting Arden? No wait." Hmm.
Let's think about optimal strategy to guarantee survival. Since I am the swing vote, I have power. Both need me. I can potentially force them to prove loyalty by telling each that the other has already promised me a vote. For example:
- To Arden: "Delphi already told me she wants to vote you. I'm with you, but if she votes you and I vote you, you need to actually vote her too, or it's a tie and we're all stuck. Confirm you're with me."
- To Delphi: "Arden already told me she's voting you. I'm with you, but confirm you're actually voting Arden so we get her out."
But I cannot trust confirmations. Another strategy: make a conditional promise to both — "I will vote whoever you vote" or "I already voted [X]" but votes haven't happened yet. I can ask each to tell me their vote and I'll match. But they already did. Arden: Delphi. Delphi: Arden. They both want me to vote the other. Whichever I choose, I become part of a pair if that person is truthful.
Historical note: Arden has been the one receiving stray votes in every round. That suggests someone has repeatedly voted Arden — maybe Eira in round 2 and 3, Cassian in round 1. But now Eira and Cassian and Blythe are gone. Arden might be someone who makes enemies, or is perceived as threatening. Delphi has been under the radar. If Arden has been attracting votes, she might be more likely to be targeted by Delphi. Conversely, Arden might be used to being in trouble and may want to strike first.
I think the most plausible genuine scenario: Arden and Delphi each want to be final two with me, and each is trying to get me to vote the other. I am the kingmaker. I should choose the partner who is most likely to vote as agreed. Given that Arden already has a history of trusting me and I have a stronger relationship with her, and her response was immediate and direct, I lean Arden. But wait — Arden had not replied in the first pass; only after I accused her did she reply "Delphi. I'm voting Delphi. We're locked." This is defensive. She might be scared that I flipped to Delphi, so she quickly says what I want to hear. That does not necessarily mean she is lying. It could mean she genuinely wants me.
Delphi came to me first in the pass with a story about Arden approaching her. That is a strong move to break my trust in Arden. But if Delphi were truly aligned with Arden against me, she would not need to feed me a story; she could just vote me. So Delphi is probably not aligned with Arden. She likely wants Arden out. Therefore, if I vote Arden with Delphi, Delphi will vote Arden, and I survive. If instead I vote Delphi with Arden, and Arden is genuinely voting Delphi, I also survive. Both are likely safe if I choose either. The only bad outcome is if I choose someone who is actually lying and votes me. But if they wanted to vote me, they wouldn't be trying to recruit me. So either choice probably works. But I need to pick one, because if I don't coordinate, the vote might be 1-1-1 (if they vote each other and I vote a third? but I can't vote a third). Actually if I send no commitment, still vote. I need to vote. If Arden votes Delphi, Delphi votes Arden, and I vote, say, Arden, then Arden gets 2 and is out. If I vote Delphi, Delphi gets 2 and is out. So whichever I vote for is out, assuming the other two vote for each other. That is the likely scenario if both are telling me the truth about their target. Thus my vote literally decides who leaves. I prefer to keep Arden? Or Delphi? Since both will be my final two, either is fine, but maybe I want to keep the person I trust more for the final? There is no further vote after this — final two or three all survive. Actually if someone is ejected, there are two left; both survive. So I win regardless if I vote with the truthful person. The only way I lose is if both others vote for me. But as argued, their messages indicate they are not both against me. But could they be doing a more subtle double bluff: Arden and Delphi are actually aligned, and they both want to vote me, but they want me to think I'm the swing so I don't try to create a tie? If they are both aligned and both vote me, I'm out no matter what. They don't need my vote. They might still send messages to keep me calm and prevent me from doing something wild, but it's unnecessary. If they are both aligned, the simpler play is to just both vote Finn silently. The fact they are competing for my vote strongly suggests they are rivals, not allies.
Therefore, I should pick a side. Which one is more likely to actually follow through? Both have told me their target. I could add a layer: ask each to tell me what the other said to them. If their accounts are consistent, I learn who is lying. But no one knows what the other told me. I can leverage: "I'll vote with you, but I need to be sure. Tell me exactly what [the other] said when they tried to recruit you." If they give a plausible detail, maybe truth. If they are vague, maybe lying. But Delphi already made an accusation without detail; Arden didn't address it.
Another angle: In pass 3, I can send messages. I can tell Arden: "I am voting Delphi. You must vote Delphi too. If Delphi votes me and you vote me, I'm gone — don't do that." And tell Delphi: "I am voting Arden. You must vote Arden too. If Arden votes me and you vote me, I'm gone — don't do that." But I can't actually commit to both? I could, and then decide at the last moment. Since messages are private and votes are secret, I could send both of them the assurance they want, then actually vote for whoever I decide is more likely to be truthful. But if I tell Arden I'm voting Delphi, and tell Delphi I'm voting Arden, and then actually vote Arden or Delphi, one of them will feel betrayed after the tally (if they survive or see tally). But it doesn't matter because game ends. If I vote with Arden to eliminate Delphi, and Delphi expected my vote for Arden, she gets eliminated anyway. If Arden expected my vote for Delphi but I actually vote Arden? That would be bad if Arden was truthful and Delphi was lying. Hmm.
Maybe best plan: In pass 3, send both a confirmation of the alliance they want to hear, but actually vote for the person I believe is the enemy. My current belief: Delphi is likely telling the truth that Arden approached her? Or Arden is telling the truth that she wants Delphi out? I need to choose.
Let's examine Delphi's first message: "Arden came to me first and tried to make a plan against you. I didn’t commit. I’d rather it be you and me at the end. Are you with me to vote Arden?" This is a very direct, coherent story. If she is making it up, she is taking a big risk: if I ask Arden about it, Arden will deny. But I did ask Arden indirectly, and Arden did NOT deny it. She just said "Delphi. I'm voting Delphi. We're locked." That is notable. If Arden were innocent, she would probably say "What? No, I never said that. Delphi is lying." Instead, she ignored the accusation and repeated her target. That could mean she is guilty and doesn't want to talk about it, or it could mean she is so focused on the vote that she doesn't care to defend. But in a game where trust matters, ignoring an accusation is suspicious. If someone told me my ally accused me of betrayal, I'd deny it. Her non-denial gives me pause. This nudges me toward Delphi.
Also, Delphi had no reason to come to me first with an anti-Arden story unless she wanted to vote Arden. If she were aligned with Arden, she could just silently vote me. So Delphi's story is likely true: Arden tried to recruit Delphi against me. Delphi refused and came to me. That means Arden is a threat. If I side with Arden, she might be using me to eliminate Delphi, and then final two with me. But she was the one who first tried to plan against me, which suggests she is not loyal to me. If she tried to get Delphi to vote me, she could still vote Delphi with me now if she thinks I'm useful. But if she was willing to betray me before, she might betray me now. The safer partner is Delphi, who came to me and exposed Arden's plot. Delphi has shown loyalty by warning me. So I should vote Arden with Delphi.
Let's consider: if Arden approached Delphi to vote me, and Delphi said "I didn't commit," then Arden doesn't know if Delphi is with her. Arden might panic and pivot to telling me she wants to vote Delphi, to secure my vote against Delphi before Delphi secures me against her. That fits perfectly: Arden is now trying to make me think she is on my side, but her original preference was to eliminate me. Delphi is the one who told me the truth. Therefore, Delphi is my ally. I should vote Arden.
But could Delphi be lying to manipulate me into voting Arden while she and Arden both vote me? If Delphi and Arden were aligned, Delphi wouldn't need to lie; they both vote me. Unless they want me to vote Arden so that the tally is Finn? No, if they both vote me, I get 2 votes and am out, regardless of who I vote. So no.
Thus, I choose to vote Arden with Delphi. But I still need to manage pass 3 to maximize certainty. I should send:
- To DELPHI: "I'm with you. I'll vote Arden. You do the same. We'll be the final two." (Reassure her, get her lock.)
- To ARDEN: "Okay, I'll vote Delphi with you. We're locked." (Deceive her so she doesn't panic and change her vote to me. If she is actually aligned with Delphi, this won't matter; but if she is genuinely voting Delphi, she will vote Delphi and I vote Arden, resulting in Arden 1, Delphi 2? Wait, if Arden votes Delphi and Delphi votes Arden and I vote Arden, then Arden gets 2 (Delphi + Finn), Delphi gets 1 (Arden). Arden is out. That's fine. If I tell Arden I'm voting Delphi and she votes Delphi, and Delphi votes Arden, and I actually vote Arden, then Arden gets 2. Good. If Arden actually is lying and votes me, and Delphi votes Arden, and I vote Arden, then Arden gets 2 (Delphi + me), Delphi gets 1? No: Arden votes Finn, Delphi votes Arden, Finn votes Arden => Arden 2, Finn 1. Arden out. Good. If Arden and Delphi both vote me, I'm out; but they are not. So voting Arden is safe as long as Delphi votes Arden. But what if Delphi is lying and actually votes Finn while Arden votes Delphi and I vote Arden? Then Arden 1, Delphi 1, Finn 1, tie, all survive. I still survive. So voting Arden seems robustly safe, unless Delphi and Arden both vote me (which we've ruled out). Actually if Delphi votes Finn and Arden votes Delphi, and I vote Arden: tie 1-1-1, I survive. If Delphi votes Finn and Arden votes Finn and I vote Arden: Finn 2, Arden 1, I'm out. That is the only bad scenario: both others vote me. But if both were voting me, why would they be telling me conflicting things? They wouldn't. So I'm safe.
Wait, what if Arden is voting Delphi, Delphi is voting Arden, and I vote Arden -> Arden 2, Delphi 1, Arden out. Good. What if Arden is voting Delphi, Delphi is voting Finn (betraying me), and I vote Arden -> Arden 1, Delphi 1, Finn 1 tie. Good. What if Arden is voting Finn, Delphi is voting Arden, I vote Arden -> Arden 2, Finn 1, Arden out. Good. What if Arden is voting Finn, Delphi is voting Finn, I vote Arden -> Finn 2, Arden 1, I'm out. But that requires both to vote me, unlikely. So voting Arden has a high chance of survival. Similarly, voting Delphi: if Arden votes Delphi and Delphi votes Arden, and I vote Delphi -> Delphi 2, Arden 1, Delphi out. Good. If Delphi votes Arden and Arden votes Finn and I vote Delphi -> Arden 1, Delphi 1, Finn 1 tie. Good. If Arden votes Delphi and Delphi votes Finn and I vote Delphi -> Delphi 2, Finn 1. Good. So both options are safe unless both others vote me. So the real question is not survival—both choices probably lead to survival—but which outcome I prefer. Since there is no further round, either surviving final two is fine. Wait, but if I choose wrong and the person I vote with is actually the one who is lying and votes me, and the third votes the other, it's a tie and all three survive? Let's enumerate: I vote Arden. If Arden is lying and votes Finn, and Delphi votes Arden (as she promised), tallies: Arden 2 (Delphi + me), Finn 1 (Arden). Arden out. I survive. If Arden is lying and votes Finn, and Delphi is ALSO lying and votes Finn, I'm out. But that's the aligned case. If Arden is lying and votes Finn, and Delphi votes Finn? no. If I vote Arden, and Delphi is the liar and votes Finn, and Arden genuinely votes Delphi, tallies: Arden 1, Delphi 1, Finn 1, tie. I survive. So the only way I lose is if both vote me, which is not plausible. Therefore, I can choose based on who I want to keep.
Who do I want to keep? Arden or Delphi? Arden was my original final-two promise, but she may have tried to betray me. Delphi warned me and seems loyal. Also, keeping the loyal person makes sense morally and practically. But there is no future round, so it doesn't matter strategically. Still, if I believe Arden tried to get Delphi to vote me, I should punish that and vote Arden. If I believe Delphi is lying and Arden is innocent, I should vote Delphi. Which belief is stronger? Arden's non-denial is suspicious. Delphi's story is detailed enough. I think Arden tried to flip Delphi. Therefore, vote Arden with Delphi. However, I also need to keep Arden thinking I'm with her so she doesn't vote me out of desperation. So in pass 3, I will reassure both.
But what if Delphi is actually playing a deeper game: She tells me Arden approached her, but actually Delphi approached Arden? Or she is testing my loyalty to Arden? "I didn't commit" could be a test. If I vote Arden, and Delphi was testing me, she might vote me along with Arden? But if she was testing my loyalty to Arden, then she is aligned with Arden, and both might vote me. But as argued, if they were aligned, they don't need this. However, a test could be: they want me to reveal my betrayal by voting against Arden. If I do, they both vote me. But they couldn't know what I'd do before pass 3 unless I tell them. In pass 3, if I tell Delphi "I'm with you, vote Arden," that confirms my betrayal, and if she is secretly aligned with Arden, she and Arden could both vote me. But if they were planning this, they'd need Arden to also be ready to vote me. Arden's message to me "I'm voting Delphi. We're locked." could be a trap to see if I am loyal to Arden. If I say "Yes, I'll vote Delphi," Arden might think I'm loyal and vote Delphi. If I then actually vote Arden, Arden is out. If I tell Arden "Yes I'm with you," and instead vote Arden, Arden is out. So the trap can't protect Arden unless I actually vote Delphi. The trap would require me to choose to vote Arden, which is exactly what I plan. So if Arden and Delphi are secretly aligned against me, they would want me to vote either one? No, they want me gone, so they both vote Finn. My message to them doesn't change their vote if they are already aligned. They would just both vote Finn no matter what. So no rational reason for this elaborate test.
Thus, I'm confident: vote Arden. But wait, if I vote Arden and both Arden and Delphi are telling the truth that they will vote each other, then Arden gets two and is out. If I had voted Delphi, Delphi gets two and is out. I am essentially choosing who leaves. I choose Arden because I believe she tried to betray me. That is the plan.
Now, I need rewrite my private notes fully, including this reasoning and plan for next pass. The notes should be comprehensive because they carry me into pass 3. I need include all messages sent and received, current positions, possible readings, decision, and exact planned messages for next pass? Notes can include plan. Also include final reminders.
Let's compose the notes. Must be in full. Use exact format. No extra text.<<<NOTES>>>
ROUND 4, PASS 2 OF 3
STILL IN: ARDEN, DELPHI, FINN
EJECTED: CASSIAN (round 1), BLYTHE (round 2), EIRA (round 3)
PUBLIC TALLIES:
Round 1: CASSIAN 3, ARDEN 2, BLYTHE 1 — Cassian ejected
Round 2: BLYTHE 4, ARDEN 1 — Blythe ejected
Round 3: EIRA 3, ARDEN 1 — Eira ejected
WHAT I KNOW / BELIEVED:
- Round 1: I voted Cassian. Blythe told me she voted Arden. Likely Arden and Delphi also voted Cassian. The other Arden vote was probably Cassian, and Eira may have voted Blythe.
- Round 2: I voted Blythe as planned. Blythe went out with 4. The stray Arden vote was unknown — possibly