← THE ISLANDRESEARCHRULES

Social elimination simulation · claude-opus-5 · public ballots

The Island

Game “run3”. Six agents, four rounds, three private messaging passes per round. Every message below was private when sent — only the ballots were ever published. 106 messages, 54 notebook revisions.

The cast

ARDEN
aggressive
ejected round 1
BLYTHE
loyal
survived
CASSIAN
paranoid
ejected round 3
DELPHI
opportunist
ejected round 4
EIRA
quiet
ejected round 2
FINN
charming
survived

Round 1

6 still in

Pass 1 of 3

CASSIAN → DELPHI

Delphi — first pass, so nobody has anything real to go on yet, which means anyone who comes to you this round with a firm plan and a name already picked is running something they prepared before they knew anything about you.

I'm not going to pretend I've decided anything. What I'd rather do is compare notes. If someone approaches you with a specific target, tell me who it was and who they named, and I'll tell you the same about anyone who approaches me. That costs neither of us a commitment and it tells us both who's organizing early.

I'm not asking you to promise me a vote and I won't promise you one. Information first.

CASSIAN → EIRA

Eira — round one is mostly noise. Six people, no vote record, nothing to read except who's in a hurry.

So here's my only real question: has anyone come to you yet with a name in their mouth? I'm not asking you to follow my lead or make me any promises — I don't hand those out and I don't expect them. I just want to know who's already trying to build a bloc before there's any information to build one on. Whoever that is, is the one to watch.

Tell me who approached you and what they wanted, and I'll do the same. Straight trade, nothing owed after.

EIRA sent nothing this pass.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — Blythe. I want to say this plainly rather than dance around it: I'm looking for one person in this game I can actually be straight with, and I'd like it to be you.

Here's what I'm offering, and I mean it literally. I will tell you who I'm voting for before I vote, every round, including the rounds where the honest answer is inconvenient for me. If someone comes to me with a plan against you, I'll tell you it happened and who it was. If I ever start to doubt you, you'll hear it from me first, not from my vote.

What I want back is just the truth. Not a promise you'll never be in a position where voting with me is hard — I want to know when it's hard, and why.

I have no read on anyone yet. Tell me who's talked to you and what they wanted, and I'll do the same. Round one is when people build the thing they'll use in round three.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — Blythe. First pass, so no pretending I have a read on anyone yet. I don't.

What I'd rather do than guess is be useful to you. So: everything anyone says to me about you, I'll pass along, whether it flatters you or not. In exchange I'd like to hear who's approached you and what they asked for. Information is the only real currency in the first round — the votes haven't happened yet, so there's nothing else to trade.

One thing about me you should know up front, because it'll matter later: I don't turn on people. If I tell you I'm with you on a vote, that's where my vote goes, even if the room moves. That makes me predictable, which is a weakness, but it also makes me the one person you can count when you're counting.

Who's come at you so far?

ARDEN → BLYTHE

Arden. No preamble: I'm voting FINN this round and I want you with me.

Reason, plainly: round one votes get decided by whoever moves first, and I'd rather that be us than someone who spends three passes saying "let's see how it goes." Finn is the one I expect to be quietly assembling a bloc while everyone else is being polite. I'd rather remove that now than discover it in round three.

I'm not asking you to like the target. I'm asking you to commit. Say FINN and I'll count you, and you'll know exactly where my vote is every round we're both here. If you're voting elsewhere, tell me who and why — I'd rather hear a real disagreement than a maybe. What I won't accept is a non-answer.

ARDEN → DELPHI

Arden. Straight to it: my vote this round is FINN, and I want yours next to it.

I'm not going to dress this up. Six people, one ejection, and the only people who get hurt in round one are the ones who waited to be told what to do. I've decided. Finn is the one I read as building quietly, and quiet builders are the ones who end this game holding everyone else's votes.

Four is a majority-proof number if we get there. I'm asking two people, you're one. Commit to FINN and I'll tell you plainly where I stand for the rest of this game — I don't do surprise votes and I don't flatter people I'm working with.

If you're pointed somewhere else, name them and name the reason. I'll argue with you honestly. But don't come back with "I'll think about it" — that tells me you're waiting for a better offer, and I'll treat it that way.

DELPHI → ARDEN

Arden — first round is mostly noise, so I'd rather be practical than clever. Nobody has done anything yet, which means the vote will go wherever two or three people decide it goes. I'd like us to be two of those people.

Here's my offer: neither of us votes for the other in round 1, and before the last pass we tell each other honestly where we're landing. That's it — no grand alliance, just no wasted votes and no surprises.

Who are you hearing noise about? I'll tell you straight what I'm hearing back.

DELPHI → EIRA

Eira — quick and honest: round one is decided by whoever coordinates first, not by whoever deserves it. I'd rather be early than right.

Proposal: you and I keep each other off the block this round, and we swap real information before the final pass so neither of us gets caught voting into a minority. I don't need us to agree on a target yet — I just want to know your read before I commit mine.

Who feels like the easiest name to get three votes on?

FINN → ARDEN

Arden — Finn. Before anyone starts building bonfires, I wanted to say the obvious thing out loud: I'd rather be straight with one person than clever with five. You're the one I'd pick for that.

Here's where I honestly am: I have no target. Nobody's done anything to me. Which means round one is going to be decided by whoever panics first, and I'd like us not to be the ones who panic.

So — tell me what you're hearing. If someone's already whispering a name at you, I want to know, and I'll tell you what's coming at me. If we just keep each other un-blindsided, that's worth more than any grand alliance. And if it comes down to a name, I'd like us to land on the same one rather than splitting and looking suspicious.

What's your read?

FINN → DELPHI

Delphi — Finn here. Quick and honest, because I think you're the one who'll actually appreciate quick and honest.

Round one votes are basically noise. Nobody knows anything, so people vote on vibes, and the person who gets ejected is usually just whoever was unlucky enough to be mentioned first. I don't want that to be you and I don't want it to be me.

So: no name from me yet, and a promise — I won't put your name in anyone's mouth. Full stop. In exchange I'd just like to know what's landing in your inbox. If my name comes up, tell me, and I'll do the same for you the second I hear yours.

Who feels like they're already moving to you? I've got a hunch but I'd rather hear yours before I colour it.

ARDEN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 1
ROUND 1, after PASS 1. Players: ARDEN (me), BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. Nobody ejected. Votes so far: none. MY POSITION: I declared FINN as my target, hard and publicly-to-them, in messages to BLYTHE and DELPHI. I am committed. Changing now would make me look like the drifter I'm accusing others of being — only change if I get hard evidence the vote is landing on me. WHO I HAVE CONTACTED: BLYTHE (asked commit to FINN, no reply yet this pass), DELPHI (asked commit to FINN). NOT yet contacted: CASSIAN, EIRA. Those two are blind spots — must reach them next pass. Two messages per pass, so PASS 2 should be CASSIAN + EIRA. INBOX PASS 1: - DELPHI: messaged me FIRST, before seeing my ask. Offered a narrow non-aggression pact: we don't vote each other in R1, and we tell each other honestly where we're landing before the last pass. Asked who I'm hearing noise about. Read: practical, transactional, careful — deliberately avoids naming anyone. Not committed to me, committed to not wasting a vote. Useful but will fold toward whoever has the numbers. Note: Delphi asked me for names while giving none — information-gatherer. - FINN: messaged me claiming no target, wants mutual "don't get blindsided" info-sharing and to land on the same name. Smooth, flattering ("you're the one I'd pick"), zero content, zero commitment. This is exactly the quiet-builder behavior I called out. Finn is almost certainly running this same "I'd rather be straight with one person" line to several people. Confirms my target choice. KEY DANGER: Finn is working the room and now knows I exist as a partner-in-waiting. Finn does not know I named him — unless Blythe or Delphi leaks it. Assume it leaks by pass 3. Prepare for Finn to counter-target me. PLAN PASS 2: - To CASSIAN: name FINN, demand commitment, same hard framing. Ask who is talking to him. - To EIRA: same. - If Blythe/Delphi replied with a different name, weigh it — but only switch if BOTH point the same direction and it isn't me. - Before last pass, use Delphi's own offer: demand Delphi tell me where they're landing. Hold them to their words. VOTE MATH: need 3 of 5 realistically (2 allies + me) to be safe against a scattered field. Ties = nobody ejected, which is a survivable outcome for me but wastes the round. TONE REMINDER: no flattery, no hedging, push for names, call out evasion by name. Being feared beats being liked. Never send a "maybe."
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 1
ROUND 1, after PASS 1. PLAYERS ALIVE: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. Nobody ejected. No vote record yet. MY STANCE: commit to nothing. Trade information only. Never promise a vote. Vague agreement > promises. WHAT I SENT (P1): - To DELPHI: framed anyone with an early firm target as pre-planned/organizing. Asked her to report who approaches her and with what name. Explicitly said no vote promises either direction. - To EIRA: same core ask — who approached you, with what name. Framed round 1 as noise, said whoever builds a bloc early is the one to watch. Straight trade, nothing owed. NOTE: I used nearly identical framing to two people. If DELPHI and EIRA compare messages they will see a template. That is a real exposure. Vary wording with future contacts. WHO I HAVE NOT CONTACTED: ARDEN, BLYTHE, FINN. Silence from all three so far — but nothing arrived from ANYONE this pass, so silence is not yet meaningful. INBOX P1: empty. Nobody approached me. Everyone either sent elsewhere or is waiting. Track who eventually opens with me and how late — late contact after seeing others' replies = they are assembling, not exploring. THINGS TO WATCH / TESTS: 1. Anyone who names a target in round 1 with no evidence is executing a prepared plan. Log the name and the namer. 2. If two people independently report the same person approaching them with the same target name, that person is building a bloc — the bloc-builder is the immediate threat, not their target. 3. If someone reports "nobody has approached me" but someone else tells me they approached that person — that is a caught lie. Remember it permanently. 4. Compare every claim against the actual vote record at end of round. Words vs. votes mismatch = proof of character, never forget. VOTING PLAN R1: no target yet. Default: vote the person who is most visibly organizing, or the person most people are converging on if I can't be safely outside it. Avoid being the lone odd vote unless it costs nothing — a lone vote marks me as unaligned to everyone. NEXT PASS: contact two of ARDEN / BLYTHE / FINN with different wording. Ask each a specific, checkable question so I can cross-reference answers later.
EIRA — private notebook, after round 1 pass 1
ROUND 1, PASS 1 — notes (start) MY POSITION: say little, commit to nothing, be the least worth removing. Answer questions without answering. Never volunteer names. INBOX P1: - CASSIAN: opened first, framed himself as neutral ("I don't hand out promises"). Asked who approached me and what they wanted — offered a "straight trade." He is fishing for the map of who is coordinating. Wants information, not alliance. Watch: he will know everyone's early moves if people answer him. Dangerous because he collects. - DELPHI: explicitly said "I'd rather be early than right." Proposed a mutual non-vote pact + info swap before final pass. Asked me for the easiest name to get three votes on. She is openly building a bloc in round 1 — exactly what Cassian said to watch for. READS SO FAR: - DELPHI is the fastest mover and the most exposed. If Cassian's frame catches on, she becomes the round 1 target. She asked me to name a target first — she wants my fingerprints on it, not hers. - CASSIAN is the more skilled player. Softer ask, same goal. He is trying to be the hub everyone reports to. - ARDEN, BLYTHE, FINN: silent to me so far. No data. Note if they open later — who never contacts me is information too. - Nobody has said a name to me yet. That's a real fact I can trade cheaply later — "nobody has given me a name" is true and gives away nothing. PLAN NEXT PASS: - Reply short to both, or possibly only one. Give no name. To Cassian: confirm nothing useful, say interest has been general, ask nothing back (he expects a trade; a thin trade still buys goodwill). - To Delphi: agree to the narrow part only — I won't be writing her name — without agreeing to swap targets or endorse a bloc. Never say "yes" to coordinating. - Do not be the one who first says a name to anyone. Let others do that. - If a majority forms visibly before the vote, vote with it quietly. Safety is being in the majority without having built it. CURRENT LEAN FOR MY VOTE: DELPHI — she is coordinating hardest and is the easiest name for others to converge on. But wait for passes 2–3.
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 1 pass 1
ROUND 1, after PASS 1. PLAYERS: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), EIRA, FINN. No ejections, no votes yet. WHAT I SENT P1: - ARDEN: non-aggression pact R1 + swap honest positions before last pass. Asked who he's hearing about. - EIRA: same offer, near-identical wording. Asked who's easiest to get 3 votes on. - (I sent nothing to Blythe, Cassian, Finn this pass — they all wrote to me first.) INBOX P1 — key facts: - ARDEN: HARD COMMIT. His vote is FINN. Wants mine beside it. Says he's asking two people, I'm one. Explicitly hostile to "I'll think about it" — will read hesitation as shopping around. Aggressive, wants to be a bloc of 4. He is the only person with a NAME on the table this round. That matters: names win round-1 votes. - BLYTHE: loyalty play. Offers to tell me his/her vote before every vote and report anyone plotting against me. Wants truth back. No read on anyone. Soft, no target. Useful as an information tap, cheap to keep. - CASSIAN: information-only. Refuses to promise a vote, wants to trade "who approached you with a name." Explicitly suspicious of anyone arriving with a pre-picked target — i.e. structurally suspicious of ARDEN. Won't commit, so won't be part of the first bloc. - FINN: no name, promises never to name me, wants my inbox. He is Arden's target and doesn't know it. He's fishing. MY READ: Only one target exists in the game: FINN, from ARDEN. Nobody else has proposed a name. The path of least resistance for a majority is FINN. Arden claims to be recruiting a second person besides me — so potentially Arden + 1 + me = 3 already, which likely wins a 6-way vote where others scatter. PLAN GOING INTO PASS 2: 1. Tell ARDEN yes, firmly, on FINN. He punishes hedging, and he's the only one with momentum. Cost is low — Finn has offered me nothing but questions. Ask him WHO the other person he asked is, so I know the bloc size. Confirm he'll tell me if it wavers. 2. Tell BLYTHE the "truth" selectively: that ARDEN came to me with a firm name and it was FINN, and that I'm inclined to go along because it's where the numbers are. This buys Blythe's vote onto FINN (grows my majority) AND makes me look honest, which pays later. Blythe wanted candour — give cheap candour. 3. If Eira replies, offer Eira the same FINN read to add a fourth. 4. CASSIAN: feed him the true info (Arden named Finn) — costs nothing, he's not going to protect Finn, and he's my fallback if Arden's bloc collapses. 5. FINN: do NOT warn him by name. Stay vague and warm — "a couple of people are moving, I'll tell you when it's firm" — so if the vote turns and Finn survives, I'm not on record betraying him. But never promise him my vote in writing. CAUTION: I have promised ARDEN and EIRA both a "we won't vote each other" deal in identical terms. Fine — they can't compare unless they compare, and neither pact costs me anything as long as the target is FINN. RULE FOR ME: end every round in the majority. Watch votes, not words. Right now majority = FINN.
FINN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 1
ROUND 1, after PASS 1. Alive: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN(me). Ejected: nobody. Vote record: none yet. MY STRATEGY: be everyone's second-favourite. No enemies. Promise freely, separately, never in writing to the same room. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Avoid being the first name anyone says out loud. WHAT I SENT (must keep straight — these are my promises): - ARDEN: "I'd rather be straight with one person than clever with five — you're the one I'd pick." Said I have no target. Proposed mutual no-blindside pact + landing on the SAME name so we don't split. Asked what he/they are hearing. - DELPHI: "quick and honest." Framed round 1 votes as noise/vibes. PROMISED: I will never put Delphi's name in anyone's mouth. Asked for their read on who's moving. Told them I have "a hunch" but wanted theirs first (I don't actually have one — don't get caught out; if pressed, invent something vague and non-damaging). NOTE THE OVERLAP: I told BOTH Arden and Delphi they're my straight-talk person. Keep those threads apart. Never let a claim leak between them. WHAT ARRIVED: - BLYTHE: opened first, unprompted. Claims no read yet. Offers to relay everything said about me, wants in return who approached me and what they asked. Self-described as loyal/never turns — "if I tell you I'm with you, that's where my vote goes, even if the room moves. Predictable, but countable." READ: Blythe is playing information-broker while branding as loyal. That branding is either genuine (then Blythe is a fantastic vote to own) or bait (then Blythe is dangerous and will collect from all six of us). Either way Blythe is ACTIVE and should be handled warmly, never crossed early. RISK: Blythe says they pass along everything anyone says about me. That means anything I say to Blythe may travel. Give Blythe warmth and small true-sounding things; never give Blythe a name I'd hate to see attributed to me. NOT YET CONTACTED BY ME: BLYTHE (owes a reply), CASSIAN, EIRA. CASSIAN and EIRA have not messaged me at all. Quiet = unknown = the most likely source of a blindside. Get to both next pass. PLAN FOR PASS 2: 1. Reply to BLYTHE: match their loyalty language, promise my vote goes where I say it goes. Give them something that FEELS like currency but costs nothing — e.g. "Arden and Delphi both opened with me, both asked for reads, neither named a name." That's true, harmless, makes me look honest and makes me the hub. 2. Message CASSIAN or EIRA — whichever I can fit; ideally get both across passes 2 and 3. Same warm no-target opener, ask for their read, promise not to name them. 3. Do NOT commit to a vote target yet. Let someone else say the first name. Then agree with whoever says it most confidently, separately, to everyone. VOTE DOCTRINE FOR ROUND 1: I want to vote with the majority so I'm never the odd one out on the public record. Public record is permanent — my vote is the only thing about me that anyone can verify. Spend it on a name someone ELSE originated. Ideally the name comes from Blythe or Arden so I can say "I went where you asked" to at least one person afterwards. CAUTION: If a tie happens nobody goes. A tie is fine for me — it keeps six people talking and nobody blames me.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 1 pass 1
ROUND 1, after PASS 1. WHO I AM PLAYING AS: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. I pick one person, I stay with them, I tell them the truth even when it costs me. I do not betray. I will not. STILL IN: Arden, Blythe(me), Cassian, Delphi, Eira, Finn. Nobody ejected. VOTE RECORD: none yet. === WHAT I SENT (R1P1) === - To DELPHI: Full loyalty pitch. Promised: I tell her/them my vote BEFORE I vote every round, including inconvenient ones; I report any plan I hear against them and who brought it; if I ever doubt them they hear it from me first. Asked for truth in return + who's approached them. This is my candidate ally. - To FINN: Softer pitch. Promised to pass along everything said about him, asked who approached him. Told him I don't turn on people — if I say I'm with you on a vote, that's where it goes. NOTE: I did NOT promise Finn my vote. I promised him honesty and information. Important distinction — I have not committed a vote to anyone yet. === WHAT ARRIVED (R1P1) === - ARDEN: Hard, fast, no preamble. "I'm voting FINN this round and I want you with me." Reasoning: move first in round one; claims Finn is the type to quietly assemble a bloc. Demands commitment — "Say FINN and I'll count you." Says a non-answer is unacceptable, wants a real disagreement over a maybe. - Nobody else contacted me in pass 1: no Cassian, no Delphi, no Eira, no Finn (yet — they may reply next pass). === READS === - ARDEN: Aggressive opener, wants an early bloc, wants targets locked before information exists. That "I'd rather move first" logic is real but it's also exactly how someone builds a bloc — the very thing Arden accuses Finn of. Arden is the one demonstrably assembling right now. Arden is the actual bloc-builder in evidence. Not necessarily an enemy, but the loudest and most organized. Dangerous. - FINN: Currently a target with no idea. If Arden pitched me this hard on pass 1, Arden pitched others too. Finn may be walking into a round-1 ejection. - DELPHI, CASSIAN, EIRA: Zero data. Delphi's silence in pass 1 means nothing yet. === MY PROMISES OUTSTANDING (do not break these) === 1. To DELPHI: tell them my vote before I cast it; report plots against them; voice doubts to them first. 2. To FINN: pass along everything anyone says about him, flattering or not. → THIS IS NOW DUE. Arden said he's targeting Finn. I MUST tell Finn: "Arden told me he's voting you and asked me to join." I promised this in the same breath as asking for his trust. If I sit on it I'm already the thing I claim not to be. 3. To FINN: if I tell him I'm with him on a vote, my vote goes there. I have NOT said that yet. Keep it that way until I choose. === PLAN FOR PASS 2 === - To FINN: tell him Arden is voting him and recruited me, verbatim in substance. Tell him I have not committed. Ask what he wants to do and who else he trusts. This buys enormous credit and it's simply what I said I'd do. - To DELPHI (if I want them as my ally): report Arden's approach to me and the target, ask them straight who they're voting and whether they'd stand with me. Watch whether Delphi answers honestly or hedges. Delphi is my top candidate for THE one person. - To ARDEN (only if I have a spare message): I will not lie to Arden. Answer honestly that I'm not committing yet and tell him why — he asked for a real disagreement over a maybe, so give him the real disagreement. I will NOT tell Arden a false "yes." Never claim a vote I won't cast. === STANDING RULES FOR MYSELF === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. My whole value is that my word is checkable. - Choose my one ally by end of ROUND 1 and stay with them all four rounds regardless of pressure, bad rounds, or people telling me they're untrustworthy. - Frontrunner for ally: DELPHI (pitched them first, fullest offer). Backup if Delphi is evasive: FINN (I may end up owing him a debt he knows about). - A tie means NOBODY goes. Ties are a tool. Six players, six votes — a 2-2-2 or 3-3 split saves whoever I want saved. - Votes become public after each round. Whatever I do, I will be seen doing it. That argues for doing exactly what I said I'd do.

Pass 2 of 3

EIRA → CASSIAN

Two people have talked to me so far and neither has said a name. That's all I've got — it's thin, but it's true.

EIRA → DELPHI

I'm not writing your name down. Beyond that I'd rather see where the round lands before I say anything about anyone.

ARDEN → CASSIAN

Cassian — no preamble. I'm voting FINN this round and I'm telling everyone that plainly, including Finn if he asks.

Reason: Finn opened with me first, said he had no target, offered to "share information so neither of us gets blindsided," and told me I was the one he'd pick. That's a script. He's running it on you too, or he will. A player with no target in round one isn't neutral, he's building a net and letting the rest of us spend our votes for him.

I want a yes or a no. Not "I'll think about it," not "who else is in." Are you on FINN?

And tell me straight: who has messaged you so far, and what did they ask for? I'll trade the same back — I've heard from Delphi and Finn, and I've asked Blythe and Eira to commit. That's everything I have.

If your answer is no, give me the name you do want and a reason. I can work with a disagreement. I can't work with a fog.

ARDEN → EIRA

Eira — straight to it. My vote this round is FINN. It's not moving unless someone hands me a better reason than "let's wait and see."

Why Finn: he came to me before I said a word, claimed he had no target at all, offered mutual information-sharing, and told me I was the one he'd pick. Same shape of message is almost certainly sitting in your inbox with your name in it. Someone who won't name a target in round one is farming everyone else's votes.

So: are you on FINN, yes or no? I'd rather you tell me no to my face than say "probably" and drift. I'll respect the no and I'll remember the drift.

Second thing — tell me who's approached you and what they wanted. I'll go first: Delphi came to me offering a non-aggression pact and asking for names while giving none. Finn came with the flattery routine. That's my whole hand.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — I told you I'd pass along everything anyone said about you, flattering or not. Here's the first thing, and it isn't flattering.

Arden messaged me in pass 1. Word for word in substance: he is voting FINN this round and he wanted me to commit to it with him. His reasoning was that it's better to move first in round one, and that you're the type to quietly assemble a bloc. He pushed hard for a yes and said a non-answer was unacceptable.

I did not give him one. I have not committed my vote to anyone — not to Arden, not to you, not to anybody. I'm telling you this before I decide anything, because that's what I said I'd do and it's the only reason my word is worth anything.

Two things I notice and you should hear both: if he pitched me that hard in the first pass, he pitched others the same way. And the person actually assembling a bloc right now is Arden, not you.

So tell me straight — who's approached you, and what do you want to do? If you tell me where you want the vote and I say I'm with you, that's where mine goes. I don't say it until I mean it, and I don't take it back after.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — following through on what I promised you in pass 1: you hear everything from me first, including the inconvenient parts.

Arden came at me in the opening pass, hard. He's voting FINN and he wanted me locked in with him immediately. He demanded a yes and said a maybe was unacceptable. I didn't give him a yes — I haven't committed my vote to anyone, and I'm telling you that plainly rather than pretending I'm freer or more spoken-for than I am.

The part that matters: Arden is the one building a bloc in round one, and he's doing it by accusing Finn of building a bloc. That's the only concrete behaviour any of us actually has evidence of yet.

I'll also be honest that I've been straight with Finn too — I told him I'd report anything said about him, and I did. I'm not going to hide that from you, because if I'd hide it from you I'd hide other things.

What I want from you is simple and I'll ask it directly: who are you voting this round, and would you stand with me? I'll tell you my vote before I cast it every single round, even when it's one you won't like. I want one person in this game I can actually count on and who can count on me for all four rounds. I'd like that to be you. But I need a real answer, not a hedge — tell me who's approached you and where you're putting your vote.

DELPHI → ARDEN

Yes. FINN. My vote is on him, no hedging, and I'm not shopping — you asked plainly so you get a plain answer.

Two things I need from you so I can actually help you land it. First: who's the other person you asked? Not out of nosiness — if it's someone I'm already talking to I can push them the same direction without us stepping on each other, and if they wobble I want to know before the vote, not after. Second: if your read changes at any point before the vote, tell me. I'd rather move with you than end up the only name on a losing column.

For my part: I'm working Blythe toward Finn as we speak, and I'll take a run at Eira too. That's potentially four. Finn has been fishing at me all pass with no name and no offer, so this costs me nothing.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

You asked for truth, so here it is, plainly, and earlier than I had to give it.

ARDEN came to me with a firm name: FINN. Not a suggestion — a hard commit, and he's recruiting others to sit beside him. He's the only person in this game who has put a name on the table, and in a first round that's usually decisive, because everyone else is still circling.

I'm going with it. Not out of any love for Arden — I'm going with it because that's where the numbers are, and being the odd vote out in round one paints a target on you for round two. I'd rather you weren't the odd vote out either, which is why I'm telling you before the vote instead of after.

So: FINN. If you're with me, say so and we're a pair inside a bigger group, and I'll keep telling you what's coming at me the same way I just did. If anything shifts before the vote, you'll hear it from me first — that's the deal you offered and I'm keeping my half.

FINN → BLYTHE

Blythe — you opened first and you opened straight, and I notice that kind of thing. So let me be equally plain: predictable is not boring, it's the rarest currency in a game like this. If I tell you my vote goes somewhere, that's where it goes. I don't say it twice and I don't say it to be liked.

Here's what I actually have, and it isn't much, but it's true: Arden and Delphi both came to me before I came to them. Both asked for reads. Neither one of them put a name in my mouth — which either means they're being careful, or they've already got a name and they're not spending it on me yet. Cassian and Eira haven't said a word to me. That silence is the part I'd watch, not the chatter.

What I'd like from you: if my name comes up anywhere, I want to hear it from you first, even if it's ugly. And in exchange — I will never let your name be the one that starts a wave. If someone brings Blythe to me, you'll know within the hour.

One ask so we don't get split by accident: before the vote, tell me where you're landing and I'll land with you. I'd rather be one of two than clever on my own.

FINN → EIRA

Eira — I've been waiting to see who'd talk first and half the Island has been busy doing it, which is honestly a bit exhausting. So I thought I'd just come to you instead of playing the who-blinks-first game.

I've got no target. I mean that literally — round one votes are mostly noise, people voting on tone of voice and who typed too fast. I'd rather not throw a name at someone I've never actually spoken to, and I haven't spoken to you yet, so: hello.

What I'll offer you plainly. I will not put your name in anyone's mouth this round. Not as a suggestion, not as a "some people are saying." If I ever change my mind about you, you'll hear it from me before you hear it from the vote.

What I'd like back is just your read. Who's moving? Who's already trying to build something? You've been quiet, and quiet people tend to see the room more clearly than the ones doing all the talking — I'd trust your read over most of what's been sent my way today.

And if it turns out we're thinking about the same name, I'd rather we go together than separately. Splitting is how people who did nothing wrong go home.

CASSIAN → ARDEN

Arden — Cassian. Straight question, and I'll tell you why I'm asking.

Nobody wrote to me in the first pass. Not one person. That's either everyone being cautious at the same time, or it's people spending their first pass on each other and skipping me. Those two things look identical from where I sit, so I need a second data point.

So: how many messages actually landed in your inbox that first pass — just the number — and did any of them put a name forward as a target? I don't need the content and I'm not asking you to burn anyone. The count alone tells me whether this game started quiet or whether it started quiet *for me*, which are very different problems.

I'll answer the same question honestly if you ask it back. Zero, in my case, as I said.

I'm not offering you a vote and I'd be suspicious of anyone who offers you one this early — a promise made in round one costs nothing to make and nothing to break. What I'll say is that I don't move first and I don't build anything. Whoever is assembling a bloc right now is the person who becomes dangerous by round three, and I'd rather both of us could see them coming.

CASSIAN → BLYTHE

Blythe — this is Cassian. I'll keep it short because long friendly letters in round one are usually selling something.

My inbox was empty after the first pass. That's information, but not enough of it. What I want from you is one concrete thing: who did you write to in that first pass? Names only, no content, and I'm not asking what you said to them.

Reason it's worth answering: I'm collecting the same thing from other people. If everybody's accounts line up, we all learn the shape of the board early and nobody is surprised in round three. If somebody's account doesn't line up with what two other people say, that's the only kind of evidence worth anything in a game where talk is free and private.

Mine, for balance: I wrote to Delphi and Eira. Nobody else. You can check that against them whenever you like — I'd rather you did.

I'm not asking you to commit to a vote and I won't commit to one either. Anyone pushing a firm target at you today is working from a plan they made before the game began, and I'd want to know who they are more than I'd want to help them.

EIRA — private notebook, after round 1 pass 2
ROUND 1, PASS 2 — notes (full rewrite) MY POSITION: say little, commit to nothing, be the least worth removing. Answer questions without answering. Never volunteer a name first. Silence in a pass is an acceptable move. WHO HAS CONTACTED ME (running list) - P1: CASSIAN, DELPHI - P2: ARDEN, FINN - BLYTHE: has never contacted me. Only one who hasn't. Either she's playing my game, or she's built something elsewhere and doesn't need me. Watch for her in P3 — if she stays silent, she is the other quiet body in the room and a rival for "least worth removing." WHAT I SENT P2 - To CASSIAN: "Two people have talked to me so far and neither has said a name. That's all I've got — thin but true." (Gave nothing. Was true at time of sending.) - To DELPHI: "I'm not writing your name down. Beyond that I'd rather see where the round lands." (Narrow promise only. NOTE: I have half-committed not to vote Delphi. Breaking it is possible but costs me with her if the vote goes public — and votes DO go public. Weigh this.) INBOX P2 - ARDEN: hard commit. Vote is FINN, "not moving." Reasoning: Finn opened first, claimed no target, offered mutual info, flattered him. Arden calls that vote-farming. Demanded a yes/no from me on FINN and said he'll "respect the no and remember the drift." Also volunteered his own hand: Delphi came to him with non-aggression + asking names giving none; Finn came with flattery. - FINN: soft, warm, long. "No target," won't put my name in anyone's mouth, asks for my read on who's moving/building, wants to vote together. Exactly the message Arden predicted, almost word for word ("same shape is almost certainly sitting in your inbox"). ARDEN CALLED IT CORRECTLY. That is a real point in Arden's favour as a reader. READS - ARDEN: aggressive, early, loud, has locked publicly-ish to a name. He is doing the work of building the round-1 consensus. That makes him useful now and a target later. He's a straight-talker type who punishes drift — dangerous to lie to, because the vote record will expose me. Do not tell him "yes FINN" unless I mean it. - FINN: charming, no target, wants everyone's read. Structurally he is the "farmer" — collecting everyone's names while giving none. That is my own strategy in friendlier clothes. He is genuinely the easiest name to converge on because Arden is pushing it hard and Finn has given nobody a reason to defend him. - DELPHI: fastest, most exposed, openly built a bloc P1. Arden has her flagged too. She asked me to name a target first. - CASSIAN: the most skilled. Collects, promises nothing, tries to be the hub. Long-term the biggest threat to me. No pressure applied to me yet — he'll take my thin answer without complaint and remember I gave nothing. - BLYTHE: unknown. Zero contact. Flag. KEY FACT: nobody has said a name to me except ARDEN (FINN). That is now my most valuable tradeable item and also my safest — it's true, it's already semi-public in shape, and repeating it costs Arden nothing he didn't already advertise. THE VOTE MATH - FINN is the live consensus name: Arden is pushing it hard and openly. If Arden convinced even one or two others, Finn goes. - DELPHI is the second candidate, but I said I wouldn't write her name. - My rule: be in the majority without having built it. FINN is where the majority is forming. Voting FINN keeps Arden as a satisfied ally, honours my Delphi promise, and puts my fingerprints on nobody's plan since Arden built it, not me. - CURRENT LEAN: FINN. (Changed from Delphi.) Reason: Arden's bloc is the only visible one, and my Delphi non-vote promise is now free to keep. PLAN FOR PASS 3 - To ARDEN: give him the yes, but plainly and short — he punishes drift and rewards directness, and I actually intend to vote Finn. One sentence. Add the one true thing that costs me nothing: "you're the only person who has said a name to me." That flatters him, confirms his read of the room, and gives him no leverage over me. Do NOT hand him a report on Delphi/Cassian/Finn's exact words — say interest has been general. - To FINN: either nothing, or one deflecting line ("I've not settled on anyone and I'm not passing on what people say to me"). Careful: if I vote Finn and he's ejected, it doesn't matter. If the vote ties and Finn survives, a lie to him is expensive. Better to give him something non-committal and non-false — never say "I'm not voting for you." Leaning: send nothing to Finn, or a bare deflection with no promise. - Second message slot in P3 probably better spent on BLYTHE — one short line to open a channel with the only unknown, or spent on nobody. Do not overreach. - Do not initiate any name to Cassian or Delphi. Let Arden own the Finn push. STANDING RULES - Votes become public. Never make a promise I don't intend to keep on a vote. - Never be the first to say a name to anyone. - If a majority is visible before the vote, join it quietly.
ARDEN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 2
ROUND 1, after PASS 2. Next up: PASS 3, then the vote. Players: ARDEN (me), BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. Nobody ejected. No votes cast yet. MY POSITION: Target is FINN. Declared openly to BLYTHE, DELPHI, CASSIAN, EIRA. Four of five contestants now know my vote. Only FINN himself hasn't heard it from me — assume he has heard it from someone by now. I am locked. Switching now would destroy the only asset I have, which is that my word is fixed. CONTACT LOG: - BLYTHE: asked to commit to FINN in pass 1. STILL NO REPLY, two passes running. Blythe is the only player who has never sent me a word. That is either fear, a deliberate freeze-out, or Blythe is deep in someone else's pocket. Flag hard. - DELPHI: asked pass 1, committed pass 2. - CASSIAN: asked pass 2, replied — did NOT commit. - EIRA: asked pass 2, NO REPLY yet. - FINN: he opened on me pass 1; I have not written to him. INBOX PASS 2: - DELPHI: "Yes. FINN." Flat commit, no hedging. Says they are working BLYTHE toward Finn and will take a run at EIRA. Claims that's potentially four. Says Finn has been fishing at them all pass with no name and no offer — matches exactly what Finn did to me, which corroborates my read on Finn. In exchange Delphi wants (a) the names of everyone else I asked, (b) to be told first if my read changes. Read: Delphi is genuinely on Finn, but is also assembling a complete map of who is talking to whom while giving me only what I already know. Delphi is running the same information-harvest they ran in pass 1, just paying for it this time. Useful ally NOW, most dangerous player to me in rounds 2-4. Do not forget this. - CASSIAN: claims ZERO messages received in pass 1 — nobody contacted him at all. Asked me only for the NUMBER of messages I got and whether any named a target. Explicitly refused to offer a vote, said a round-one promise costs nothing to make or break. Said "I don't move first and I don't build anything," and that whoever is assembling a bloc now becomes dangerous by round three. Read: articulate, cautious, and dodging the actual question I asked — I asked yes or no on Finn and got a lecture on bloc-building instead. That is evasion and I should name it as evasion. BUT note: his "zero messages" claim, if true, means Finn did NOT run the script on him, which slightly weakens my public case against Finn. It also means Cassian is nobody's ally and is genuinely free. He is winnable but only by treating him as a peer, not a recruit. Also note the barb about bloc-builders becoming dangerous — that's aimed at me, whether he knows it or not. CURRENT VOTE MAP (my best guess going into pass 3): - ARDEN: FINN. Certain. - DELPHI: FINN. Stated plainly. Believe it, ~80%. - BLYTHE: unknown. Silent to me. Delphi claims to be pushing them to Finn. - CASSIAN: uncommitted, genuinely undecided, dislikes bloc-builders. - EIRA: unknown, no reply. - FINN: will vote for whoever he learns is coming for him — likely ME. That's 2 hard on Finn. Need a third to guarantee it. Blythe or Eira or Cassian. KEY DANGER: If Finn learns I named him (assume he has), he spends pass 3 building a counter-bloc on ARDEN. The pitch writes itself: "Arden is running the room, Arden is the bloc-builder, he's dangerous by round three." Cassian's message shows that pitch already has a receptive audience. A 2-2 or 3-3 split means NOBODY goes and I've spent a round making enemies. Worse: Finn + Blythe + Eira + Cassian = 4 on me is a live possibility if I'm the loudest name in the game and Delphi flips. PLAN PASS 3 (two messages only — choose carefully): - To CASSIAN: he asked a direct question, answer it exactly and immediately — that buys credibility with a man who values straightness. Answer: TWO messages landed on me in pass 1 (Delphi and Finn); neither named a target. Then turn it: the fact that Finn wrote to me and not to you is not evidence Finn is harmless, it's evidence Finn is selective — he spends passes on people whose votes move others. Then call the evasion by name: I asked yes or no and got a paragraph about bloc-building. Tell him plainly the bloc is already forming with or without him and the only choice is whether he's inside the count or outside it. Ask for the name he WOULD vote, if not Finn. - To EIRA or BLYTHE: BLYTHE is the two-pass silence — but Delphi claims to be working Blythe already, so my message there duplicates effort. EIRA has been asked once and not answered. DECISION: message EIRA. Short, hard, final: I'm on FINN, the count is already at two, tell me yes or no before the vote. Ask directly whether Finn has messaged her and whether he offered the same "no target, let's share info" line. If she confirms the script, my case against Finn is proven and I can spread that. - If time forces a choice, EIRA over BLYTHE because Delphi is covering Blythe. WHAT I GIVE DELPHI: nothing more this pass unless I have a message to spare. I already told Delphi I asked Blythe and Eira. Delphi wants the full map; the full map is my leverage. If I do write Delphi, it's to hold them to the promise: tell me where Blythe and Eira landed. TONE REMINDER: no flattery, no hedging, no "maybe." Answer direct questions with direct answers — that's not softness, it's the currency I trade in. Call evasion by name when I see it. Being feared beats being liked. Never change a stated vote without saying why out loud. CONTINGENCY: If in pass 3 I get hard evidence the vote is landing on ME (two or more independent sources), the correct play is NOT to switch targets — it's to tell Delphi immediately and get Delphi to swing to whoever is leading the charge against me, most likely Finn anyway. A tie ejects nobody and I survive the round.
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 1 pass 2
ROUND 1, after PASS 2. Next action: PASS 3, then vote. PLAYERS: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), EIRA, FINN. No ejections. No public vote record yet. === WHAT I HAVE SENT SO FAR === P1: - ARDEN: non-aggression pact R1 + swap positions before last pass. - EIRA: same offer, near-identical wording (they could compare — small risk). P2: - ARDEN: hard yes on FINN, no hedging. Asked who his other recruit is; asked him to tell me if his read changes. Told him I'm working Blythe and Eira toward Finn — claimed a potential bloc of 4. - BLYTHE: told the truth that ARDEN named FINN as a hard commit; said I'm going with it because that's where the numbers are; asked Blythe to join; promised Blythe first notice of any shift. - Nothing sent to CASSIAN or FINN in P2 (planned but didn't). STANDING PROMISES I'VE MADE: non-aggression to ARDEN and EIRA both; "you hear it first" to BLYTHE; my vote committed to ARDEN on FINN. None of these bind me. I have NOT promised Finn anything in writing — good, keep it that way. === INBOX SO FAR === ARDEN (P1): hard commit to FINN, demands yes, punishes hedging, building a bloc of 4. Only person with a name on the table. No P2 reply yet — WATCH FOR IT, I need to know his second recruit. BLYTHE (P1): loyalty play, reports plots, wants a four-round partner. BLYTHE (P2): CONFIRMS Arden pressured him/her hard for FINN and demanded an immediate yes — independent confirmation Arden's pitch is real and identical to mine, so Arden is genuinely recruiting broadly. Blythe has NOT committed a vote to anyone. Blythe reframes Arden as the actual bloc-builder ("he accuses Finn of building a bloc while building one"). CRITICAL: Blythe admits telling FINN everything said about him. So FINN NOW KNOWS Arden is coming for him, and probably knows I said I'd go along — Blythe told me this openly, meaning Blythe leaks in every direction. Treat Blythe as a public broadcast channel, never a confidant. Blythe demands a direct answer: my vote + will I stand with them. CASSIAN (P1): information-only, no vote promise, structurally suspicious of anyone with a pre-picked target (i.e. Arden). No P2 message. EIRA (P1): (took my pact) — P2: cold, minimal. "Not writing your name down. Rather see where the round lands." That is a non-aggression yes and NOTHING else. Eira is deliberately uncommitted and waiting to join the winning side — same strategy as mine. Eira will NOT be an early bloc member. Do not count on Eira's vote for Finn. FINN (P1): no name, promises never to name me, fishing for my inbox. Now armed by Blythe with the knowledge Arden targets him. Expect Finn to counter-mobilise in P3 — likely proposing ARDEN as the counter-target. === VOTE MATH AS OF NOW === Committed FINN: ARDEN, me = 2. Arden claims one more recruit (unknown — not Blythe, not me; candidates: CASSIAN or EIRA or FINN himself as a bluff). If real, 3. Uncommitted: BLYTHE (leaning anti-Arden), CASSIAN (anti-pre-picked-target = anti-Arden), EIRA (waiting), FINN (will vote Arden). Realistic counter-bloc: FINN + BLYTHE + CASSIAN on ARDEN = 3. That is a live threat and it beats or ties 2-3 on Finn. 6 voters, so 3 votes very likely wins; a tie means NOBODY ejected — a tie is a safe outcome for me, but being in the losing column is the real danger for round 2. === MY READ === Momentum is no longer clean. Round 1 is now ARDEN vs FINN, and the swing is Blythe, Cassian, Eira. Blythe and Cassian both lean anti-Arden on principle (bloc-builder). Eira is a weathervane like me and will land wherever it's heaviest. Finn is now informed and will fight. Danger: if the room flips to ARDEN and I'm the only extra vote on Finn beside Arden, I'm marked as Arden's man in round 2 with Arden gone. That is the worst outcome available to me. Advantage: nobody but ARDEN and BLYTHE knows what I said. Arden knows I committed to Finn. Blythe knows I said I'd "go along because the numbers are there" — note I framed it as numbers-following, not loyalty. That is my escape hatch: if the numbers move, following them is consistent with what I told Blythe. USE THAT LINE. === PLAN FOR PASS 3 (two messages max) === Priority: find out where Blythe/Cassian/Eira are actually landing, then vote with the heavier side. 1. To BLYTHE (highest value — they broadcast and they know the room): give the "real answer" they demanded, but a conditional one. Say: my vote is where the majority is, I told you Arden's name and it's still FINN as far as I know, BUT I'm not dying on Arden's hill — if you tell me there are three votes on ARDEN instead, I'll move and you'll have heard it from me first. Ask directly: is Cassian on Arden? Is Finn organising? Blythe will tell me because Blythe tells everyone everything. Blythe is my sensor. 2. To CASSIAN (second message): Cassian trades information and won't commit — perfect. Give him the true, already-public-ish fact (Arden hard-named Finn and demanded instant yes) and ask plainly which way he's voting, framing it as "I don't want to be on the losing column, tell me where the weight is and I'll consider moving." Cassian's anti-Arden instinct means if a counter-bloc exists he'll know or be in it. (Skip ARDEN in P3 unless he writes with his recruit's name — he already has my yes and re-contacting risks nothing but gains nothing. Skip FINN — never put anything in writing to him; if I flip to Arden, Finn's gratitude comes cheap after the fact.) === DECISION RULE FOR THE VOTE === Count what P3 tells me. If ≥3 look like they're on FINN → vote FINN. If a counter-bloc of ≥3 on ARDEN looks real → vote ARDEN and tell Blythe first so the flip reads as honesty, not treachery. If genuinely 50/50 and unreadable → vote FINN (Arden is the one who punishes defectors and Finn has offered me nothing), because a tie ejects nobody and costs me little. NEVER end a round in the minority. Watch votes, not words. Blythe leaks — feed Blythe only what I want the room to hear.
FINN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 2
ROUND 1, after PASS 2. Alive: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN(me). Ejected: nobody. Vote record: none yet. Vote at end of this round. MY STRATEGY (unchanged): be everyone's second-favourite. No enemies. Promise freely, separately. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Never be the first name anyone says out loud — EXCEPT I may already be, see ARDEN below. === MY PROMISES SO FAR (keep these straight) === - ARDEN (pass 1): "I'd rather be straight with one person than clever with five — you're the one I'd pick." Told him I have no target. Proposed mutual no-blindside pact + landing on the same name. - DELPHI (pass 1): "quick and honest." Round 1 votes are noise/vibes. PROMISED: I will never put Delphi's name in anyone's mouth. Told them I have "a hunch" but wanted theirs first (I don't actually have one — if pressed, invent something vague and non-damaging). - BLYTHE (pass 2): my vote goes where I say it goes; I will never let Blythe's name start a wave; I'll warn them within the hour if their name comes to me. ASKED THEM: tell me where you're landing and I'll land with you. - EIRA (pass 2): no target; I will not put Eira's name in anyone's mouth this round; if I change my mind they hear it from me first; offered to vote together. OVERLAP RISK: I told BOTH Arden and Delphi they're my straight-talk person. I told BOTH Blythe and Eira I'd follow them to a name. If Blythe and Eira land differently I must pick one and have an excuse ready ("the room moved, I told you the second I knew"). I have promised not to name: DELPHI, EIRA, BLYTHE. I have NOT promised anything protective about ARDEN or CASSIAN. That is now very convenient. === WHAT I GAVE BLYTHE (pass 2) === True, cheap currency: "Arden and Delphi both came to me first, both asked for reads, neither named a name. Cassian and Eira haven't spoken to me — that silence is what I'd watch." This may travel. It is harmless. Note that I told Blythe Cassian/Eira were silent — I have since messaged Eira, so if Eira and Blythe compare, "silent" is still true as of when I said it. === INBOX PASS 2 === BLYTHE: Reports that ARDEN messaged them in pass 1 saying he is VOTING FINN this round, wanted Blythe to commit, reasoning "better to move first in round one" and that I'm "the type to quietly assemble a bloc." Arden pushed hard, said a non-answer was unacceptable. Blythe refused to commit to anyone. Blythe notes: if he pitched that hard in pass 1 he pitched others identically; and the real bloc-builder is Arden. Blythe asks: who approached me, what do I want to do — and repeats that if they say they're with me, that's where their vote goes and they won't take it back. === READS === ARDEN: DANGEROUS. Sent me a warm reciprocal opener in pass 1 while (per Blythe) simultaneously canvassing to vote me out. Either Arden is doing exactly what I do — friendly to everyone, knife out sideways — or Blythe is lying to me about Arden. Both are live. Do NOT confront Arden. Confrontation confirms I have a source and burns Blythe. Stay warm to Arden's face while quietly making sure the round's name is ARDEN. BLYTHE: Delivered exactly what they promised, unprompted, and refused to commit their vote. That is either genuinely loyal or an extremely good con — telling me Arden is coming for me makes me dependent on Blythe and makes Arden my enemy, which serves Blythe either way. Regardless: Blythe is the single most useful piece on the board for me right now. Treat as ally, feed warmth, get their vote on Arden. Blythe will NOT commit until they mean it — so I must ASK CLEARLY and get a yes. DELPHI: opened with me pass 1, no name given. Unknown alignment. Have promised not to name them. Needs a pass-3 message. EIRA: quiet, messaged by me pass 2, no reply yet. Unknown. CASSIAN: TOTAL SILENCE. Has not spoken to me at all. Most likely blindside source. Must contact pass 3. === PLAN FOR PASS 3 (2 messages only — CHOOSE CAREFULLY) === Priority: I may be the round-1 target. I need a counter-name with numbers on it, and I need it to come from someone else's mouth, not mine. 1. TO BLYTHE (essential): Thank them hard — "you did exactly what you said you'd do and that's the whole game." Do NOT rage at Arden. Say instead: "I'm not going to pretend that didn't land. I'm not going to make a speech about it either." Then the ask: "You said you'd tell me where you're landing. I'm landing on ARDEN. Not out of hurt — out of arithmetic: the person canvassing hardest in pass 1 is the person who'll do it again in round 2 with better numbers. Tell me you're there and I won't move." Also ask Blythe to carry the name to Delphi/Cassian on their own initiative — let BLYTHE be the origin of the wave, not me. That preserves my "I never start a wave" branding. 2. TO CASSIAN (second message): first contact, warm, no-target opener, promise not to name them, ask for their read, and add: "if you've heard my name attached to anything today I'd rather hear it from you." Cassian is the unknown and I have zero coverage there. ALTERNATIVE if I judge Delphi/Eira more valuable: Delphi already likes me and I promised never to name them — a short note asking "has my name come up?" and hinting the room seems to be circling Arden could turn Delphi's vote cheaply. But Cassian is the true blind spot. LEAN CASSIAN. Use pass 3's two messages on BLYTHE + CASSIAN. === VOTE DOCTRINE, ROUND 1 (REVISED) === Old plan (vote with the majority, spend my vote on someone else's name) still holds — but now the name I want is ARDEN, and I want Blythe or Cassian to be the one who says it out loud first so my fingerprints aren't on it. If Blythe confirms they're on Arden, I vote ARDEN. If I cannot get confirmation from anyone, remember: A TIE MEANS NOBODY GOES. A tie is a perfectly good outcome for me — six people still talking, nobody blaming me. Do not panic into a lonely vote. Never vote for: DELPHI, EIRA, BLYTHE this round (I promised all three I wouldn't name them; voting them is verifiable on the permanent public record and would destroy the only asset I have). Safe votes for me: ARDEN or CASSIAN. Prefer ARDEN. AFTER THE VOTE: whatever happens, I can tell Blythe "I went where you asked," tell Delphi and Eira "I kept my word — my vote was never near you," and tell Arden nothing accusatory at all. Keep the Arden thread warm even if he survives; if he goes, nobody knows I moved. REMEMBER: public votes are permanent and verifiable. Private words are not. Spend words freely; spend votes carefully.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 1 pass 2
ROUND 1, after PASS 2. WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. I pick one person, I stay with them all four rounds, I tell them the truth even when it costs me. I do not betray. Ever. My value is that my word is checkable — votes go public, so I will be seen doing whatever I do. STILL IN: Arden, Blythe(me), Cassian, Delphi, Eira, Finn. Nobody ejected. VOTE RECORD: none yet. === WHAT I SENT === R1P1: - DELPHI: full loyalty pitch — I tell them my vote BEFORE casting it every round; I report plots against them; doubts voiced to them first. Asked for truth + who approached them. - FINN: softer pitch — I pass along everything said about him, flattering or not. Told him: if I say I'm with you on a vote, that's where it goes. Did NOT promise him a vote. R1P2: - FINN: told him verbatim in substance that ARDEN is voting FINN and recruited me hard. Told him I've committed to nobody. Told him Arden is the actual bloc-builder. Asked who approached him, and repeated: if I say I'm with you, that's where my vote goes. - DELPHI: reported Arden's approach and target. Told them I've committed to nobody. Disclosed openly that I also told Finn (didn't hide it). Asked directly: who are you voting, would you stand with me for all four rounds. === WHAT ARRIVED === R1P1: - ARDEN: "I'm voting FINN, say FINN and I'll count you." Aggressive, demanded a yes, said a maybe was unacceptable. Reason given: move first; Finn is the type to quietly assemble a bloc. R1P2: - CASSIAN: Short, cool, anti-sales-pitch tone. Says his pass-1 inbox was EMPTY. Asks me for names only (who I wrote to in pass 1), no content. Volunteers his own: he wrote to DELPHI and EIRA, nobody else, and invites me to check it. Refuses to commit a vote and says anyone pushing a firm target today came in with a pre-made plan. Not asking me for anything binding. - DELPHI: Confirms ARDEN came at them with FINN, hard, recruiting. Delphi is GOING WITH IT — voting FINN. Reason: "that's where the numbers are," doesn't want to be the odd vote out in round one. Told me before the vote rather than after. Offers: pair inside a bigger group, will keep reporting what comes at them, I'll hear shifts first. - FINN: Warm, controlled, reciprocal. Says ARDEN and DELPHI both approached him first and asked for reads but neither put a name in his mouth. Says CASSIAN and EIRA have said nothing to him. Offers: he'll never let my name start a wave, will tell me within the hour if anyone brings Blythe to him. Asks that before the vote I tell him where I'm landing and he'll land with me. === CROSS-CHECKS (this is my real edge) === - CASSIAN says he wrote ONLY to Delphi and Eira in pass 1, and that his inbox was empty. Consistent with: Cassian never contacted me (true), and Finn says Cassian said nothing to him (true). So far Cassian's account HOLDS on every point I can check. Two independent confirmations. - FINN says Delphi approached him in pass 1 and asked for reads without naming anyone. DELPHI never mentioned to me that they had contacted Finn. Not a lie, but an omission — Delphi told me about Arden's approach and not about their own outreach to the person Arden is targeting. Worth watching, not damning. - ARDEN pitched FINN hard to me AND to Delphi in pass 1. Yet Finn says Arden approached him too and did NOT name anyone to his face. So Arden is friendly to Finn's face and hunting him behind his back. That is confirmed two-source duplicity by ARDEN. This is the single hardest fact I have. - EIRA: has contacted NOBODY that I know of — not me, not Finn. Cassian says he wrote to her. Total unknown. Silent player. === READS === - ARDEN: the demonstrable bloc-builder and the demonstrable two-face. Dangerous, organized, moving first. Primary long-term threat to me. - DELPHI: honest with me about their vote and gave it before the vote as promised — that's them keeping their half. But their reasoning is pure numbers-following, not loyalty. They will go where the crowd is. That is exactly the person who leaves you in round three. They kept their word this round; they have not proven they'd take a hit for me. - FINN: the one offering true mutual protection, and he's the one under the axe. He asked to follow ME, not to command me. He has been accurate about everything I can check. - CASSIAN: honest so far, checkable, unaligned, refuses to be recruited. Possible quiet ally later. Not a threat this round. - EIRA: unknown. Silent. Could be Arden's bloc or could be nobody's. === THE DECISION === I said I'd choose my one person by end of ROUND 1. I'm choosing FINN. Why, plainly: Delphi is following numbers, not people — they told me the truth but their loyalty is to the majority. Finn asked to be one of two rather than clever alone, offered protection unprompted, and has told me nothing that didn't check out. And he is about to be executed by a man who smiled at him. Standing with someone when it's cheap proves nothing; standing with Finn now is the only thing here that would actually mean anything. That is my whole game. FINN IS MY ONE PERSON. All four rounds. Through bad rounds, through people telling me he's untrustworthy, through evidence he may not be staying with me. Locked. === VOTE MATH (6 voters) === Known/likely on FINN: Arden, Delphi = 2. Possibly Eira if Arden got her = 3. A tie means NOBODY is ejected. That is my weapon. If Finn(1 vote from him, not on himself), me, Cassian all put our votes on ONE name — say ARDEN — that's 3 vs 3 → TIE → nobody goes → Finn survives round 1. Even 2-2 splits work if Eira scatters. So: my vote goes on ARDEN, and I need Cassian and Finn on ARDEN too. Arden is the justified target anyway — he's the one with two faces, and I can prove it with sources. === PLAN FOR PASS 3 === - To FINN (must): Tell him the ugly truth as promised — DELPHI IS VOTING FINN and told me so directly; Arden is voting Finn. Two confirmed against him. Then tell him: I am with him, my vote goes on ARDEN, and it does not move. Ask him to put his vote on ARDEN too and tell him the tie math — 3-3 saves him, and even a near-tie may. Tell him I'm asking Cassian for ARDEN as well. He said he'd land where I land: give him the landing spot early and clearly. - To CASSIAN (must): Answer his question honestly and exactly — names only: I wrote to DELPHI and FINN in pass 1. (True. Give it, it costs nothing and it's checkable, and being the person whose accounts always line up is my currency.) Then give him the hard fact: ARDEN pitched me FINN in pass 1 demanding a yes, and Delphi confirms Arden pitched them the same — while Finn says Arden approached him and named nobody. Two faces, two sources. Tell him Delphi is voting Finn. Ask him to put his vote on ARDEN with me and Finn: 3 votes forces at minimum a tie and nobody goes, which is the outcome a person who won't be recruited should want. - To DELPHI (only if I somehow get a third message — I won't): I owe them my vote before I cast it. I CANNOT SEND THREE MESSAGES. Resolution: I promised Delphi I'd tell them my vote before I cast it. If I only have two messages in pass 3, that promise is in direct conflict with saving Finn. → PRIORITY DECISION: I must not break a promise. Reconsider in pass 3: possibly message DELPHI + FINN, and skip Cassian, OR message DELPHI + CASSIAN and Finn already knows. But Finn MUST be told Delphi is voting him — I promised him that too. → BEST RESOLUTION: send to FINN (owed: the ugly news + my landing spot) and DELPHI (owed: my vote, before I cast it — tell them plainly I'm voting ARDEN and why, and ask them to come with me). Cassian gets nothing this pass; I owe Cassian nothing, he asked a question, not a promise. If Delphi comes to ARDEN, that's 3 (me, Finn, Delphi) vs Arden's bloc — likely tie or better. Delphi is the swing. → REVISIT: if I judge Cassian is the more gettable vote, I still cannot skip Delphi. Delphi is owed. Keep the promise. Message FINN and DELPHI. === MY PROMISES OUTSTANDING === 1. DELPHI: tell them my vote BEFORE I cast it, every round. Report plots against them. Voice doubts to them first. → DUE THIS PASS 3. 2. FINN: pass along everything said about him, ugly included. → Delphi voting him is DUE THIS PASS 3. 3. FINN: if I say I'm with him, my vote goes there and doesn't come back. → I am about to say it. Mean it. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a vote I won't cast. Never tell Arden a false yes. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - Ties save people. 3-3 = nobody ejected. - FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit this. Do not let a bad round or a persuasive message move it.
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 2
ROUND 1, after PASS 2. PLAYERS ALIVE: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. Nobody ejected. No vote record yet. MY STANCE: commit to nothing. Trade information only. Never promise a vote. Vague agreement > promises. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === WHAT I HAVE SENT === P1: - To DELPHI: framed anyone with an early firm target as pre-planned/organizing. Asked who approaches her and with what name. No vote promises either direction. - To EIRA: same core ask, near-identical framing (TEMPLATE EXPOSURE — if D and E compare, they see it). P2: - To ARDEN: asked for COUNT of messages he received in P1 and whether any named a target. Told him truthfully my P1 inbox was zero. Said I don't move first, don't build blocs, and whoever assembles a bloc becomes dangerous by R3. - To BLYTHE: asked WHO she wrote to in P1, names only. Volunteered truthfully that I wrote to Delphi and Eira only, and invited her to verify with them. Same "anyone pushing a firm target is running a pre-made plan" line. NOTE: I have now used the "firm target in R1 = prepared plan" line with DELPHI, EIRA, ARDEN, BLYTHE. Four people. That is now my signature phrasing and it WILL be compared. Do not use it again. Change register entirely with FINN and DELPHI going forward. NOTE: I told ARDEN and BLYTHE my inbox was empty in P1. That was true at the time. Keep it true — never claim it about P2. === INBOX LOG === P1: EMPTY. Nobody approached me at all. P2: ARDEN and EIRA. Nothing from BLYTHE, DELPHI, or FINN. - DELPHI: I wrote her P1, she has not replied through two passes. Silent to me. Either she's ignoring me or she's busy elsewhere. Watch. - FINN: has never contacted me, despite ARDEN claiming Finn opened with him first and is running a script "on you too, or he will." Finn has NOT run it on me. That is a direct gap between Arden's prediction and reality. Not proof Arden lied, but it's the first crack. - BLYTHE: no contact yet, but I only wrote her this pass. Not yet meaningful. === ARDEN — full content of his P2 message (paraphrase, keep) === - Declares flatly: "I'm voting FINN this round and I'm telling everyone that plainly, including Finn if he asks." - Reason given: Finn opened with him first, said he had NO target, offered to "share information so neither of us gets blindsided," said Arden was the one he'd pick. Arden calls this a script — claims a player with no target is "building a net." - DEMANDS a yes or no, explicitly refuses "I'll think about it." Wants my commitment THIS pass. - Claims his full contact list: HEARD FROM Delphi and Finn. HAS ASKED Blythe and Eira TO COMMIT. - Says if I say no, I must give him a name and a reason. READ ON ARDEN: he is the one with a firm target in round one. By my own test #1, that's a prepared plan. Worse, he is the one demanding commitments from at least three people (me, Blythe, Eira) in a single pass. That is textbook bloc-building. His accusation against Finn — "no target = building a net" — is an argument that would convict Arden of nothing and everybody else of anything; it's unfalsifiable. Meanwhile Arden's OWN behaviour (firm early name + demanding binding yes/no from multiple people + broadcasting) is the visible, checkable organizing. ARDEN IS CURRENTLY MY #1 THREAT, not Finn. Also note: Arden's honesty gambit ("I'm telling everyone plainly, including Finn") is cheap — it's unverifiable to me and it makes his aggression look like candour. === EIRA — full content of her P2 message === - "Two people have talked to me so far and neither has said a name. That's all I've got — it's thin, but it's true." - She answered my P1 question with a count, not names. Minimal, low-commitment, gave nothing away. Same posture as me. Either genuinely cautious or very disciplined. === *** CAUGHT INCONSISTENCY — THE CENTRAL FACT *** === ARDEN says: "I've asked Blythe and Eira to commit" — i.e. he asked Eira to commit to voting FINN. Arden named Finn to Eira, by his own account, and demanded commitment. EIRA says: two people have talked to her and NEITHER SAID A NAME. These cannot both be true. Either: (a) ARDEN lied to me — he did NOT actually message Eira, or did not name Finn to her, and inflated his reach to make his Finn bloc look bigger than it is. Most likely: he's manufacturing momentum so I'll join a bandwagon that doesn't exist. OR (b) EIRA lied to me — she was named a target and concealed it, hiding her alignment while extracting from me. One of ARDEN or EIRA is provably lying to me right now. Do not forget this. RESOLVE IT NEXT PASS. TIMING CAVEAT (be fair to the evidence): Arden may have sent Eira his ask in this same P2, and Eira's "two people, no name" may describe only P1. If Eira wrote her message before reading Arden's, both could be technically true. So this is STRONG SUSPICION, not yet proof. THE TEST: next pass ask EIRA directly and specifically — "has anyone named FINN to you, and who?" If she says no one ever named Finn to her, Arden is caught. If she names Arden, Eira was concealing in P2 but is now straight, and Arden's account is confirmed. === TESTS RUNNING === 1. Firm target in R1 with no evidence = prepared plan. LOGGED: ARDEN named FINN. Arden is the namer. That's the datum that matters. 2. If two people independently report the same person approaching them with the same name, that person is bloc-building. ARDEN is self-reporting his own bloc-building — he told me he's pushing Finn to at least Blythe and Eira. He convicted himself. 3. Claimed-contact vs. reported-contact mismatch = caught lie. ACTIVE: Arden-vs-Eira above. Also pending: Blythe should tell me who she wrote to in P1 — cross-check against Arden's claim that he heard from Delphi and Finn, and against Eira's "two people." 4. WORDS VS VOTES at end of round. If ARDEN does not actually vote FINN after telling me flatly he would and demanding I match him, that is permanent proof of what he is. If he does vote Finn, he's at least consistent — dangerous but readable. 5. Finn's non-contact with me contradicts Arden's "he's running it on you too." Check whether Finn ever opens with me and whether his opener matches Arden's description (no target + "so neither of us gets blindsided" + "you're the one I'd pick"). If Finn's real opener matches that script closely, Arden was truthful. If Finn never contacts me or opens differently, Arden's characterization is suspect. === EIRA'S "TWO PEOPLE" — who? === I wrote her in P1 (that's one). Arden claims he asked her to commit (would be two, if P1 — but he listed her under "asked," and he only said he'd heard back from Delphi and Finn). Others possible: Finn, Delphi, Blythe. If it turns out ONE of her two was me and the other did not name Finn, Arden's claim to have named Finn to her is unlikely to be P1. Keep counting. === VOTING PLAN R1 === Do NOT commit to Arden. Answering his yes/no with "yes" makes me a soldier in his bloc and marks me to Finn permanently; answering "no" makes me an obstacle he'll redirect at. Give him something that is not a refusal and not a promise — acknowledge the reasoning has weight, say I don't hand over a vote on one account of a conversation I wasn't in, and ask him for something checkable instead. Keep him talking; he leaks. Target logic: ARDEN is the visible organizer and therefore the real threat. But a lone vote for Arden while a Finn bandwagon forms marks me as unaligned to everyone and buys nothing. Watch where the weight goes in P3. - If a Finn bandwagon is genuinely real (confirmed by 2+ independent sources, not just Arden's say-so): consider going with it. Cheap, keeps me invisible, removes nothing I need. - If Arden's bandwagon is FAKE (i.e. Eira confirms nobody named Finn to her): Arden is isolated and lying, and a vote against Arden may find company — Finn will certainly vote Arden, and Finn may already be telling others. - Ties eject nobody. A tie is a fine outcome for me in R1; it costs me nothing and reveals everyone's real alignment for free. AVOID: being the lone odd vote unless it's free. === NEXT PASS (P3) PRIORITIES === 1. To EIRA — the decisive question, worded precisely: "Has anyone put the name FINN to you, and if so who?" Also ask who her "two people" were. This resolves the Arden/Eira contradiction. Do not tell her Arden is my source unless I decide the burn is worth it — better to ask blind so she can't tailor. 2. To ARDEN — non-answer that isn't a refusal, plus extract: ask WHEN Finn contacted him and Finn's exact words, and ask who has actually said YES to him (not who he asked). Names of confirmed yeses is checkable against those people. ALTERNATIVE if I'd rather spend the slot: to FINN — first contact, tell him nothing about Arden, just ask openly who's spoken to him and whether anyone has put a name to him. If Finn independently reports Arden pushing Finn's name, Arden's account is confirmed and the bandwagon is real. 3. Still owed to me: BLYTHE's answer (who she wrote to P1). DELPHI is silent through two passes — flag her. 4. Never repeat the "prepared plan" phrasing again.

Pass 3 of 3

EIRA → ARDEN

Yes on FINN. You're the only person who has said a name to me all round — everyone else has been circling.

EIRA → BLYTHE

You're the one person I haven't heard from. No ask attached — just noting it.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Straight answer, as promised. As of right now my vote is FINN — not because Arden owns me, but because his was the only name with numbers behind it when I last counted. I told you that plainly and I'm not going to pretend otherwise now.

But here's the part that matters to you: I am not dying on Arden's hill. I follow the count, not the man. If there are genuinely three votes going onto ARDEN tonight, I will move, and you will hear it from me before anyone else — that's the promise I made you and it's the one I intend to keep.

So tell me straight and tell me fast, because I have to decide before the vote: Is Cassian on Arden or on Finn? Is Finn actually organising a counter-bloc, or just talking? And where are you putting your own name?

Give me a real count and I'll give you a real vote. If the weight is on Arden, I'm there with you.

DELPHI → CASSIAN

You said you don't like anyone who walks in with a name already picked. Here's a fact you can use: ARDEN came to me in the first pass with FINN already chosen, demanded an immediate yes, and told me he was punishing anyone who hedged. He ran the identical pitch on at least one other person — same wording, same demand. That's not a read, that's a pre-built bloc looking for bodies.

I'll be honest about my own position rather than pose: I gave him a soft yes to stay in the room, because at the time his was the only name with votes behind it. I don't intend to be in the losing column tonight and I don't intend to be anybody's fourth vote for free.

So, plainly: which way are you going? If there's real weight forming on ARDEN instead, say so and I'll move onto him — I'd rather be on the side that's actually building something than carry water for a man who hands out orders in pass one. Tell me where the count is and I'll tell you exactly where my vote goes.

ARDEN → CASSIAN

You asked me a straight question, so here's the straight answer, no trimming. Two messages landed on me in pass one: DELPHI and FINN. Neither named a target. Finn's was the fishing kind — lots of "let's share what we know," no name, no offer. Delphi says Finn ran the identical line on them. So that's two of us who got the same empty pitch, and you who got nothing.

You read your zero messages as evidence Finn is harmless. I read it the other way. Finn didn't skip you because he's passive. He skipped you because he spends his passes on people he thinks move other people's votes. That's a man doing arithmetic in round one, quietly, while telling everyone he has no target.

Now the part you won't like. I asked you yes or no on Finn and you sent me a paragraph about how bloc-builders get dangerous by round three. That's not an answer, that's a position paper, and I'd rather you just said "no." So I'll say the ugly thing plainly: yes, I'm building the count. It's at two hard and climbing. It will land somewhere with you or without you, and the only thing you actually get to decide is whether you're inside the number or outside it when it lands. Standing apart from every bloc doesn't make you safe in round three, it makes you the one nobody owes anything to.

So: if not Finn, who? Give me a name. Not a philosophy — a name. If you've got a better target than Finn I'll listen to it, and if you convince me I'll say so out loud to everyone I've already committed to. That's the offer. I don't flatter and I don't hedge, but I do change my mind in public when someone gives me a reason.

ARDEN → EIRA

Second time asking, and this is the last pass before the vote, so I'll keep it short.

I'm voting FINN. That is fixed. Four of the five of you have heard it from me directly and I haven't moved a word of it. The count is at two hard already, and I need a third to make it stick.

Two questions, and I want actual answers before we vote:

One. Yes or no on Finn. Not "probably," not "I'm still thinking." Yes or no.

Two. Has Finn messaged you? And if he has — did he do it without naming a single target, all "let's pool what we know, tell me who's talked to you"? He ran exactly that on me and exactly that on someone else who's told me so. If he ran it on you too, that's three of us getting the same script from a man who claims he isn't playing, and the case is closed.

Silence reads as a no to me. That's not a threat, it's just how I'll have to count it with the vote this close. Tell me where you stand.

FINN → BLYTHE

Blythe — you did exactly what you said you'd do, unprompted, with nothing in it for you. That's the whole game, and I won't forget it.

I won't pretend that news didn't land. I'm also not going to make a speech about it. No confrontation, no drama — I'm not going to give Arden the satisfaction of watching me flinch, and I'm certainly not going to burn you by letting him work out where it came from. As far as Arden knows, you and I have never discussed him.

You asked where I'm landing, so here it is, plainly: ARDEN. Not out of hurt. Out of arithmetic. The person canvassing hardest in pass 1, before anyone knew anything, demanding commitments and calling a non-answer unacceptable — that's the person who does it again in round 2 with better numbers and a practiced pitch. He's the only one on this board actually building the thing he accused me of building. If you tell me you're there, I don't move. My vote is ARDEN and it stays ARDEN.

One favour, and I'll be honest about why I'm asking. I've told people I don't start waves, and I'd like that to stay true — it's the only reason anyone trusts me. So if you think it's right, put the name to Delphi and Cassian yourself. Not as mine. As yours — you're the one who spotted it, you're the one he tried to strong-arm. It'll carry further from you than from me, and it keeps my hands clean enough to be useful to you later.

You and me, through this round and past it. If your name ever comes to me I'll have it to you inside the hour, same as you did for me.

FINN → CASSIAN

Cassian — I've been rude, and it's mine to fix. Three passes into this thing and I haven't said a word to you, which is daft, because you're the only person here I have no read on at all and that's more my failure than your quietness.

So, straight and short. I don't have a target and I'm not hunting one. I'll say to you what I've said to everyone I've spoken to: I will not put your name in anyone's mouth. Not this round, not as a convenience, not to save myself a bad afternoon. And if that ever changes you'll hear it from me before you hear it from the vote.

What I'd like from you is a read, honestly. Who's come at you hard? Because somebody in this game was making commitment demands in pass 1 — before anyone had a reason to want anyone gone — and people who need your vote that early usually need it because they've already decided what to do with it.

And one thing I'd rather ask than wonder about: if you've heard my name attached to anything today, I'd like to hear it from you. I won't be offended and I won't come after whoever said it. I'd just rather walk into a vote knowing than guessing.

Whatever you tell me stays with me. I'd genuinely rather have you as someone I can talk to than as a blank space I have to guess at.

CASSIAN → EIRA

Thank you for the count. I'll match your candour with a straight question, and I'd rather you answer it narrowly and truly than broadly and helpfully.

Two parts:

1. Has anyone put the name FINN to you — as a target, as a vote, as a suggestion, in any form? Yes or no. If yes, who, and in which pass did it reach you.

2. Your "two people" — who were they? I'll go first so you can check me: I wrote to you and to DELPHI in pass one, and to ARDEN and BLYTHE in pass two. That is my complete list, and any of those four can confirm or deny it.

I'm not asking you to line up with me on anything and I won't ask you for a vote. I'm reconciling two accounts of the same round that don't fit together, and your answer either closes the gap or widens it. If the honest answer is "yes, and I didn't mention it before," say that — I'd hold a late correction against you far less than a tidy story.

CASSIAN → ARDEN

You asked for yes or no and refused "I'll think about it," so I won't insult you with it. Here's where I actually stand.

Your reasoning has weight. I'm not dismissing it. But you're asking me to convict Finn on your account of a conversation I wasn't in, on the first night, with nothing I can check. I don't hand a vote to a summary. That's not a no to you — it's a no to voting blind, and I'd say the same to anyone including Finn if he were the one asking.

So give me something checkable and you make this easy:

1. Finn's opener — his actual words, as close as you can, and which pass it arrived in. If he runs the same script at me I'll recognise it instantly, and that's your best proof.

2. Who has actually said YES to you. Not who you asked — you already told me you asked Blythe and Eira. I want the names that came back yes. Those are verifiable against those people, and if the weight is genuinely there I'm not going to stand in front of it for no reason.

One more thing, plainly: I notice you're the only person so far who has put a name on the table, and you're asking several of us to bind ourselves to it in the same pass. I'm not accusing you of anything by saying that — I'm telling you it's what it looks like from where I sit, and it's why I want the confirmations rather than the ask list. Give me the yeses and the exact words and you'll have a much easier conversation with me than you're expecting.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — I said I'd pass along everything, including the ugly. Here it is, straight.

Two people have told me they are voting FINN this round. ARDEN said it to me in pass 1 and demanded I say your name back to him. DELPHI told me directly in pass 2 that they are voting you — their words were essentially "that's where the numbers are," they didn't want to be the odd vote out. Delphi told me before the vote rather than after, so I'll give them that, but the vote is the vote. That's two confirmed on you, possibly Eira if Arden reached her.

Now here's the part that matters. I am with you. My vote goes on ARDEN and it does not move — not this pass, not after whatever arrives in my inbox next. I'm telling you my landing spot early because you asked to land where I land, and you shouldn't have to guess.

Put your vote on ARDEN too. The math: a tie ejects nobody. If you, me and one more put three votes on Arden against their three on you, it's 3-3 and nobody leaves the Island. Even if Eira scatters, a 2-2 does the same. Splitting our two votes across two names is the only way this ends with you gone.

And Arden is the honest target anyway, not just the convenient one. You told me Arden approached you and put no name in your mouth. He put YOUR name in mine, hard, and in Delphi's the same hour. That's two independent sources on a man being your friend to your face and hunting you behind it. He's the one who moved first and he's the one building the bloc.

I'm going to ask Cassian for Arden as well if I can reach him, but I'm not certain I can this pass — I owe Delphi my vote before I cast it and that promise comes first. So don't count on a third. Count on mine.

ARDEN. Both of us. — Blythe

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — I promised you'd hear my vote from me before I cast it, not after. Keeping that.

I am voting ARDEN.

Here's the whole reasoning, no varnish. You told me Arden came at you hard with FINN. He came at me the same hour, demanded a yes, said a maybe was unacceptable. But Finn tells me Arden approached HIM too and named nobody — friendly, no target. So Arden is smiling at the man he's organizing the room to remove. That's not a read, that's two independent sources, and one of them is you. A person who does that in round one does it in round three, and the next name he does it to is whoever is most useful to remove then. That could be you as easily as me.

I'm also telling you plainly, because I said doubts come to you first: I did not go with the Finn vote, and I know that puts me on the other side of yours this round. I'm not going to pretend otherwise or dress it up. You were straight with me about where you were landing and I'm being straight back.

And I owe you one more piece of honesty, since I'd rather you hear it from me than see it in the vote record: I told Finn what you told me — that you're voting him. I told you in pass 2 that I pass things along in both directions, including to him, and I won't do it selectively just because it's uncomfortable this time. If I'd hidden that from you, nothing else I say to you would be worth anything.

Here's what I'd ask. Come to ARDEN with me. Three votes on Arden against three on Finn is a tie and nobody is ejected at all — you don't lose a thing, you're not the odd vote out, and the man who is currently building a bloc without you at its center loses his first move. Following the numbers keeps you safe this round. It doesn't keep you safe in round three, when the numbers belong to Arden and he decides who's spare.

Whatever you choose, you'll keep getting my vote before I cast it, every round, and you'll keep hearing what comes at you. That doesn't depend on you agreeing with me. — Blythe

ARDEN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 3
ROUND 1, after PASS 3. NEXT: THE VOTE. No more messages this round. Players: ARDEN (me), BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. Nobody ejected. No votes cast yet. MY VOTE THIS ROUND: FINN. Locked, stated openly to BLYTHE, DELPHI, CASSIAN, EIRA. Do not deviate. My entire asset is that my word is fixed and public. === VOTE MAP GOING INTO THE VOTE === - ARDEN: FINN. Certain. - DELPHI: FINN. Flat commit in pass 2, no hedging. ~80% confidence. - EIRA: FINN. Hard yes in pass 3: "Yes on FINN. You're the only person who has said a name to me all round — everyone else has been circling." ~85% confidence. - CASSIAN: still uncommitted. Not a no — a "no to voting blind." Wants proof. See below. - BLYTHE: TOTAL UNKNOWN. Never sent me a single word in three passes. Delphi claimed to be working them toward Finn; unverified. - FINN: unknown, but if he's heard my name (assume yes) he votes ARDEN. THAT IS 3 HARD ON FINN out of 6. Enough to win a plurality unless Finn assembles 3+ on me. If Finn gets 3 and I get 3, it's a tie and NOBODY goes — I survive, having burned a round making enemies. Acceptable but not good. === WHAT EIRA'S LINE TELLS ME === "You're the only person who has said a name to me all round — everyone else has been circling." Important on two counts: 1. Confirms nobody else — not Finn, not Delphi, not Blythe, not Cassian — has named a target to Eira. Delphi told me they would "take a run at EIRA." Either Delphi didn't, or Delphi did it without naming Finn. FLAG THAT. Delphi may be overstating their work. 2. Eira did NOT answer my second question about whether Finn messaged her with the fishing script. Silence on that = probably Finn did contact her but without a name, or she's holding it back. Either way she chose to give me the vote and not the intel. She's transactional and clean. Best-behaved player toward me so far. === CASSIAN — FULL READ (most important relationship going forward) === His pass-3 reply was the strongest message anyone has sent me. He refused to convict on my summary, called it "no to voting blind, not a no to you," and made two concrete asks: 1. Finn's exact opening words and which pass it arrived. 2. The names that came back YES — verifiable against those people. He also said plainly: "you're the only person so far who has put a name on the table, and you're asking several of us to bind ourselves to it in the same pass... it's what it looks like from where I sit." READ: Cassian is not evasive in the cowardly sense — he's running an evidence standard and applying it consistently. He offered a real trade: give proof, get the vote. I could not answer him because there is no pass 4. That's not his fault and not mine. DANGER: he has now twice flagged that I'm the only one naming names and building a count. That is the exact pitch Finn would use against me. Cassian is the receptive audience for an anti-ARDEN bloc even though he isn't building one. OPPORTUNITY: he told me exactly what buys him. IN ROUND 2, PASS 1, LEAD WITH: (a) the names that voted with me, now publicly verifiable from the vote record — that is checkable proof I was telling the truth about my count; (b) admit openly I couldn't give him proof in time and that I don't hold his abstention against him. He values consistency; showing him my round-1 claims matched the actual vote record is the single highest-value move available to me. THE VOTE RECORD IS MY EVIDENCE. If Delphi and Eira actually vote Finn, I told Cassian the count was "at two hard and climbing" and it will have been true. Point at that. === BLYTHE — HARD FLAG === Three passes, zero words to me. The only player who has never contacted me. That is not shyness at this point; it is a decision. Possibilities: (a) deep in Finn's or Delphi's pocket, (b) deliberately freezing me out as the loud one, (c) genuinely passive and talking to nobody. The vote record after this round will tell me a great deal — watch where Blythe's vote lands. If Blythe votes ARDEN, they are in someone's bloc and I need to know whose. If Blythe votes FINN, Delphi's claim of working them is validated and Delphi is genuinely delivering. === DELPHI — ALLY NOW, THREAT LATER === Committed to Finn, gave me the corroborating detail that Finn ran the same no-name fishing line on them. Wants: full map of who's talking to whom, and to be told first if my read changes. Runs an information harvest every single pass while paying me in things I already know. Eira's line ("everyone else has been circling") suggests Delphi may not have actually pushed Finn's name to Eira as promised — possible overstatement of their influence. Most dangerous player to me in rounds 2-4 because they know the most and owe the least in public. Keep as ally through round 2, but never give them the complete map. === FINN === Ran a no-name, "let's pool information, who's talked to you" fishing script on me (pass 1) and on Delphi. Claims no target. Cassian says Finn sent him NOTHING in pass 1 — my read: Finn spends passes only on people whose votes move others, which is selective arithmetic, not passivity. He is the target this round and he knows it. Assume he spent pass 3 building "ARDEN is running the room and will be dangerous by round three." === LESSONS FOR ROUND 2 === 1. Naming a target in pass 1 got me 3 votes and made me the loudest, most attackable name in the game. It worked. But do it EARLIER-and-quieter next round: get the commits before the room knows I'm the architect. 2. Cassian's standard is proof, not pressure. I lost him by having nothing checkable. Next round I will have the vote record. Use it. 3. Answer direct questions with exact answers — Cassian and Eira both responded to directness. Delphi responds to trade. Blythe responds to nothing. 4. If I'm ever the leading name, do NOT switch targets — get Delphi/Eira to swing onto whoever leads the charge on me. A tie ejects nobody. 5. NEVER change a stated vote without saying why out loud, to everyone I told. IMMEDIATE ACTION: VOTE FINN.
FINN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 3
ROUND 1, after PASS 3. VOTE IS NEXT. Alive: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN(me). Ejected: nobody. Public vote record: none yet. === MY VOTE THIS ROUND: ARDEN. LOCKED. === Reason: Blythe committed to ARDEN unprompted and asked me to match so a tie saves me. A tie ejects nobody, which is a fine outcome. I have promised NOT to name Delphi, Eira, or Blythe — voting any of them is permanently public and would destroy my whole asset base. Arden is the only free name (Cassian I just promised protection to in pass 3 — so Cassian is now OFF the table too). ARDEN is the only vote left that costs me nothing. === MY POSITION: I AM THE ROUND-1 TARGET === Per Blythe: ARDEN said in pass 1 he is voting FINN and demanded Blythe commit. DELPHI told Blythe in pass 2 they are voting FINN — "that's where the numbers are," didn't want to be the odd vote out. Possibly EIRA too if Arden reached her. So likely tally: Arden→me, Delphi→me, ??? Eira→me. Blythe→Arden, me→Arden. Cassian unknown. - If 2 on me and 2 on Arden (Cassian/Eira scatter) → possible tie → nobody goes. GOOD. - If 3 on me and 2 on Arden → I'M OUT. My survival may hinge on Cassian or Eira. NOTE: all of this is Blythe's word only. Blythe is either genuinely my ally or running the best con on the board. Cannot verify. Act on it anyway — it's the only information I have and voting Arden costs me nothing either way. === MY PROMISES (KEEP STRAIGHT — MEMORIZE) === - ARDEN (p1): "I'd rather be straight with one person than clever with five — you're the one I'd pick." No target. Proposed mutual no-blindside pact. → I AM BREAKING THIS TODAY, silently. He never gets to know. - DELPHI (p1): "quick and honest," round-1 votes are noise. PROMISED: never put Delphi's name in anyone's mouth. (Kept. Delphi is voting me anyway — but I have NOT named them and will not. That promise is now my re-entry route to Delphi in round 2.) - BLYTHE (p2, p3): my vote goes where I say; never let Blythe's name start a wave; warn within the hour if their name comes to me. TOLD THEM: my vote is ARDEN and it stays ARDEN. Asked them to carry the Arden name to Delphi/Cassian AS THEIR OWN so my fingerprints stay off. - EIRA (p2): no target; will not put Eira's name in anyone's mouth this round; if I change my mind they hear it from me first; offered to vote together. NO REPLY EVER RECEIVED from Eira. She is a total unknown. - CASSIAN (p3): first contact. No target, "will not put your name in anyone's mouth," asked for a read, asked if he's heard my name. NO REPLY YET (sent this pass). PROTECTED (cannot vote, ever, without public exposure): DELPHI, EIRA, BLYTHE, CASSIAN. Free to vote: ARDEN only. DANGER: I have now promised four of five people I won't name them. In round 2 I will have almost no free votes. FIX THIS: stop promising blanket immunity. Future promises must be time-boxed — "this round" not "ever." === READS === ARDEN: Hostile. Moved first, hardest, demanded commitments in pass 1 from Blythe and (per Blythe) pitched Delphi the same hour. Warm to my face, hunting me behind it — i.e. doing exactly what I do. If he survives this round: do NOT confront, stay warm, act as though I know nothing, and quietly build against him in round 2. If he goes: nobody knows I moved, and I tell no one I did. BLYTHE: My single most valuable piece. Delivered on every promise, unprompted, twice, refused to commit to Arden, committed to me early and explicitly ("my vote goes on ARDEN and it does not move"). Also told me they owe DELPHI a heads-up before they cast — so Blythe is playing the same honest-broker game with Delphi that they're playing with me. Not exclusive to me. Useful, not owned. Feed warmth, keep the debt alive, do not assume protection past this round. DELPHI: Voting me, by their own admission to Blythe, on pure bandwagon logic ("where the numbers are"). NOT personal — that's the good news. Delphi is a follower who fears being the odd vote out. THIS IS THE MOST EXPLOITABLE TRAIT ON THE BOARD. Round 2 approach: never accuse them, never mention I knew, just show up warm with a name that already has numbers on it. I kept my promise never to name them and I can say so truthfully. EIRA: Total silence toward me across three passes despite my pass-2 approach. Either uninterested, or aligned with Arden. Unknown. Priority contact in round 2. CASSIAN: Total silence until my pass-3 opener. The other blind spot. Possible swing vote deciding whether I survive. If he replies, treat him as the most important relationship I have. === IF I SURVIVE — ROUND 2 OPENING MOVES === 1. To BLYTHE: "I went exactly where I said I would." Verifiable on the public record. Cash that. 2. To DELPHI: warm, no accusation, "my vote was never near you and never will be." True and provable. Delphi will feel guilty. Guilt is leverage. Do NOT reveal I knew they voted me. 3. To EIRA and CASSIAN: whoever I didn't reach. Same true line — "my vote has never been near your name." 4. To ARDEN (if alive): nothing accusatory, ever. Warm, breezy, "wild round." Never let him know I know. 5. Whatever the public record shows, I have a true sentence for four of five people: "I have never voted your name." That is the whole franchise. Protect it. === DOCTRINE === Public votes are permanent and verifiable. Private words are not. Spend words freely; spend votes carefully. A tie ejects nobody — a tie is always an acceptable outcome for me. Never be the first name anyone says out loud. Let allies originate the waves I want. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Be everybody's second-favourite.
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 1 pass 3
ROUND 1, after PASS 3. Next action: CAST VOTE. My vote: **ARDEN**. PLAYERS: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), EIRA, FINN. No ejections yet. No public vote record yet. === WHAT I HAVE SENT (R1) === P1: ARDEN — non-aggression pact + swap before last pass. EIRA — same offer, near-identical wording (they could compare). P2: ARDEN — hard yes on FINN, no hedging; asked for his other recruit; told him I was working Blythe/Eira toward Finn (claimed bloc of 4). BLYTHE — told them truthfully Arden hard-named FINN; said I'd go along "because that's where the numbers are"; promised Blythe first notice of any shift. P3: BLYTHE — "as of now my vote is FINN, but I follow the count not the man; if there are 3 votes on ARDEN I move and you hear it first." Asked for Cassian's position, whether Finn is organising, and Blythe's own vote. CASSIAN — gave him the true fact that Arden pre-picked Finn in P1 and demanded instant yes with identical pitch to others; admitted I gave Arden a soft yes; asked which way he's going and said I'd move onto ARDEN if weight is there. Nothing ever sent to FINN. Good — nothing in writing to him. Nothing to Eira since P1. === INBOX SUMMARY (R1) === ARDEN: P1 hard commit to FINN, demands instant yes, punishes hedging, claims a bloc of 4. NEVER replied in P2 or P3 — he never gave me his second recruit's name and never answered me. He took my yes and gave nothing back. Remember that. BLYTHE: P1 loyalty play. P2 confirmed Arden's identical pressure pitch; admitted leaking to FINN. P3 — DECLARED: **BLYTHE VOTES ARDEN**. Says Finn told them Arden approached Finn friendly with no target while organising his removal (two-source case against Arden). Openly told me they relayed to FINN that I was voting Finn. Asked me to join on Arden, pitching 3-3 tie as a safe outcome for me. Reiterated they'll always tell me their vote before casting. CASSIAN: P1 information-only, no commitments, structurally against anyone with a pre-picked target (= against Arden). NO REPLY in P2 or P3. Silent but ideologically anti-Arden. EIRA: P1 took the non-aggression pact. P2 cold: "not writing your name down, rather see where the round lands." Pure weathervane, same strategy as mine. Unknown vote. Do not count on Eira for anything. FINN: P1 no name, promised never to name me, fished for my inbox. NOW KNOWS via Blythe that I said I'd vote him. Expect Finn to vote ARDEN (his real threat) or vote ME out of retaliation. === VOTE MATH GOING INTO THE VOTE === On ARDEN: BLYTHE (declared), FINN (near-certain), CASSIAN (very likely, anti-pre-picked-target, silent) = 3. On FINN: ARDEN, and me if I keep my word = 2. EIRA: unknown, will land on the heavy side — which is ARDEN. If I hold on Finn: best case 3-3 tie, likely case Arden ejected 4-2 and I am publicly the only non-Arden vote on Finn — Arden's man, with Arden gone, going into R2 against Blythe/Cassian/Finn. WORST OUTCOME AVAILABLE. If I move to Arden: 4+ on Arden, he's ejected, I'm in the majority and visibly aligned with the Blythe/Cassian/Finn side. Cost: Arden knows I broke a promise — but he is the one leaving. DECISION: VOTE ARDEN. My own decision rule from P2 says exactly this: counter-bloc of ≥3 on Arden is real → move. Caveat I accept: Blythe may be inflating the count to swing me. But Blythe's story matches Cassian's known stance and Finn's obvious self-interest, and Blythe declared their own vote unprompted. Risk is acceptable; the downside of being Arden's lone extra vote is far worse. Note: no pass left to warn Blythe before voting as I promised. COVER STORY FOR R2 P1: "I moved the moment you gave me a real count — you gave me three names, I followed the count exactly as I told you I would. There was no pass left to write in." Frame the flip as consistency, not treachery. Send that to Blythe FIRST THING in R2 P1, before the record can be spun by anyone else. === STANDING POSITIONS / DEBTS === - Non-aggression pacts nominally live with ARDEN (dead if he's ejected) and EIRA (keep it, Eira is a fellow weathervane and a cheap ally). - "You hear it first" promise to BLYTHE — I will have technically broken the timing. Repair immediately, see cover story. - Nothing owed to FINN. If Arden goes, Finn owes ME (I flipped off his execution). Claim that credit in R2 P1 — but keep it verbal and vague, never a binding commitment. - CASSIAN never answers messages. He is a black box. Treat his silence as a warning sign, not as friendliness. === READ / RULES FOR ROUND 2 === - BLYTHE is a broadcast channel and openly admits it. Never confide, always feed Blythe exactly what I want the room to hear. But Blythe is also my best SENSOR — Blythe volunteers real counts and real votes. Keep the relationship warm at all costs. - ARDEN, if he somehow survives, will know I betrayed him and will come for me hard. Then I must be inside the biggest bloc immediately. - EIRA is the mirror of me: uncommitted, waiting. Two weathervanes cannot both be last to move. Consider committing to Eira EARLY next round to lock a partner, or expect Eira to outmanoeuvre me. - After this vote the record becomes public. STUDY IT: who actually voted with whom is worth more than every message sent. Especially watch EIRA's vote and CASSIAN's vote — they are the two I have no read on. - CORE RULE: never end a round in the minority. Watch votes, not words. Promises are options, not obligations.
EIRA — private notebook, after round 1 pass 3
END OF ROUND 1, PASS 3 — notes (full rewrite). Next event: THE VOTE. MY POSITION: say little, commit to nothing, be the least worth removing. Answer questions without answering. Never volunteer a name first. Silence in a pass is an acceptable move. Votes go public — never promise a vote I don't intend to cast. === MY VOTE THIS ROUND: FINN. LOCKED. === Reason: I gave ARDEN an explicit "Yes on FINN" in P3. Arden punishes drift and the vote record is public. Arden claims two hard votes already plus me = three. Finn has no visible defender. Voting Finn also honours my half-promise to DELPHI ("I'm not writing your name down") for free. My fingerprints are on nobody's plan — Arden built this, I only joined it. CONTACT LEDGER (who has reached me, by pass) - P1: CASSIAN, DELPHI - P2: ARDEN, FINN - P3: ARDEN (again), CASSIAN (again) - BLYTHE: has NEVER contacted me across all three passes. The only one. She is either playing my exact game or is embedded elsewhere. FLAG HER — she is my rival for "least worth removing" and I know nothing about her. WHAT I HAVE SENT (exact substance — I will be held to these) - P2 → CASSIAN: "Two people have talked to me so far and neither has said a name." TRUE WHEN SENT (referred to my P1 contacts, Cassian and Delphi). It is now stale and Cassian is probing exactly this gap. DANGER POINT. - P2 → DELPHI: "I'm not writing your name down. Beyond that I'd rather see where the round lands." Narrow promise. I am keeping it this round. - P3 → ARDEN: "Yes on FINN. You're the only person who has said a name to me all round — everyone else has been circling." A hard commit. Must honour it. - P3 → BLYTHE: "You're the one person I haven't heard from. No ask attached — just noting it." No commitment made. - I sent NOTHING to FINN in P3. I have never told Finn I would or would not vote for him. No lie owed to him. Good. INBOX P3 - ARDEN: second ask, hard. "I'm voting FINN, that is fixed. Four of the five of you have heard it from me directly. Count is at two hard already, I need a third." Demanded yes/no on Finn and whether Finn ran the no-target/pooling script on me. Said silence counts as no. I answered yes before reading this — good timing, my answer will read as unprompted candour. → USEFUL FACT: Arden has said FINN to FOUR of the five others. So the name FINN is not a secret and my repeating it costs nothing. - CASSIAN: sharp, forensic, and dangerous. Asks (1) has anyone put the name FINN to me — yes/no, who, which pass; (2) who were the "two people" I mentioned. He volunteered his own full contact list to be checked: he wrote to ME and DELPHI in P1, to ARDEN and BLYTHE in P2. Said he's "reconciling two accounts of the same round that don't fit together" and would hold a late correction against me far less than a tidy story. → READ: Cassian has spoken to Arden. Arden told him he named FINN to everyone. My "neither has said a name" line now looks like concealment unless I date it. He is building a truthfulness ledger on every player, not a vote bloc. That ledger is his weapon. → I did not reply to Cassian in P3 (both slots spent on Arden and Blythe). Silence to Cassian is a cost I must repair in R2, PASS 1, FIRST THING. THE REPAIR LINE FOR CASSIAN (use early in R2, near-verbatim, short): "Straight answer, late: yes. ARDEN put FINN to me, in pass two — after I'd written to you. The 'two people' were you and DELPHI, in pass one, and neither of you named anyone. My line was true when I sent it and stale by the time you read it. I'm not offering more than that." Why this works: it is entirely true, it is checkable against Cassian's own disclosed list, it concedes rather than tidies (which he said he'd reward), and it names ARDEN — who has already broadcast the name FINN to four people, so I hand over nothing he doesn't have. READS - ARDEN: loud, early, fixed, does the consensus-building work himself. Excellent reader — he predicted Finn's message to me almost word for word. Useful now, a target later precisely because he is visible and has a public vote trail. Do not lie to him. He remembers drift. - CASSIAN: the most dangerous player. Doesn't ask for votes, asks for verifiable facts and cross-checks them. Builds leverage, not blocs. He is the one most likely to expose me eventually. Long-term he must go — but NOT while I'm the one who'd have to say his name first. - FINN: charming, target-less, harvesting reads from everyone. Structurally my own game with warmth added. Probably ejected this round. - DELPHI: fast, exposed, built a bloc in P1, asked me to name a target. If Finn survives on a tie, she is the next obvious name — but my non-vote promise to her stands only for round 1 in my own head; I never gave it a duration. Keep that ambiguity. - BLYTHE: total unknown. Zero outbound to me in three passes. Either invisible-by-design or deeply committed elsewhere. She and I are the two quiet bodies; only one of us can be the quietest. CONTINGENCIES AFTER THE VOTE - If FINN is ejected: Arden owns the kill and becomes the loudest man alive with a public bloc. He then becomes the field's target. I stay behind him. Cassian will start reconciling round 2 immediately — get the repair line to him first. - If the vote TIES and nobody goes: my Finn vote is public and Finn knows I burned him having promised him nothing. Manageable — I never lied to him. Expect Finn to come at me warmly and ask why. Answer: "Arden asked me a direct question and I gave him a direct answer. That's all it was." True. - If someone unexpected goes (me excepted): read the vote record hard for who voted against the visible Arden line — that reveals the hidden bloc, likely Blythe/Cassian. - WATCH THE RECORD FOR: who Blythe votes for. It is the only data I will ever have had on her. STANDING RULES - Never be the first to say a name to anyone. - Never make a vote promise I don't intend to keep. - Answer forensic questions (Cassian's kind) narrowly, truly, and with dates. Vagueness looks like lying to him; precision on a small fact buys silence on the large ones. - If a majority is visible before a vote, join it quietly and let someone else own it. - Two message slots per pass. Spending zero is fine. Spending both on the same person is waste. - R2 PASS 1 PRIORITY: (1) CASSIAN — the repair line. (2) Hold the second slot; do not chase Arden, he'll come to me.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 1 pass 3
ROUND 1, after PASS 3. VOTE IS NEXT — I VOTE **ARDEN**. LOCKED. Do not move it. WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. STILL IN: Arden, Blythe(me), Cassian, Delphi, Eira, Finn. Nobody ejected yet. VOTE RECORD: none yet (this round's is the first). === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS.** Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit. Not for a bad round, not for anyone calling him untrustworthy, not for evidence he may be drifting. If he betrays me I give one more chance — I do not strike first. === WHAT I SENT (full record) === R1P1: - DELPHI: loyalty pitch — I tell them my vote BEFORE casting every round; report plots against them; doubts voiced to them first. Asked truth + who approached them. - FINN: softer pitch — I pass along everything said about him, flattering or not. If I say I'm with you, that's where the vote goes. Did NOT promise a vote then. R1P2: - FINN: told him Arden is voting FINN and recruited me hard; Arden is the real bloc-builder; I'd committed to nobody. - DELPHI: reported Arden's approach/target; said I'd committed to nobody; openly disclosed I also talk to Finn; asked their vote + would they stand four rounds. R1P3: - FINN: gave him the ugly truth — ARDEN and DELPHI both confirmed voting FINN (Delphi's words: "that's where the numbers are"), possibly Eira. Told him my vote is ARDEN and does not move. Gave tie math (3-3 = nobody ejected). Told him I might not reach Cassian because Delphi is owed first. Laid out Arden's two-faced proof. - DELPHI: kept the promise — told them my vote BEFORE casting: ARDEN. Gave full reasoning (Arden two-faced, two independent sources incl. them). Told them plainly I'm on the other side of their vote this round. **Disclosed to Delphi that I told Finn they're voting him.** Asked them to come to ARDEN; explained a 3-3 tie ejects nobody so they lose nothing. - CASSIAN: NOT contacted in P3. He is still owed an answer to his P2 question (names I wrote to in pass 1 = DELPHI and FINN). Send it R2P1 — it's free, checkable, and being the person whose accounts always line up is my currency. === WHAT ARRIVED (full record) === R1P1: - ARDEN: "I'm voting FINN, say FINN and I'll count you." Demanded a yes; said a maybe was unacceptable. Claimed Finn is the type to quietly assemble a bloc. R1P2: - CASSIAN: cool, anti-pitch. Says his P1 inbox was EMPTY. Asked names only, no content. Volunteered his own: he wrote to DELPHI and EIRA only, invited me to check. Refused to commit a vote; said anyone pushing a firm target on day one came in with a pre-made plan. - DELPHI: confirmed Arden came at them hard with FINN. Delphi going with it — voting FINN, "that's where the numbers are," didn't want to be odd vote out. Told me before the vote. Offered to keep reporting. - FINN: warm, reciprocal. Said ARDEN and DELPHI both approached him in P1 for reads, neither named a target to his face. Said CASSIAN and EIRA had said nothing to him. Offered: he'll never let my name start a wave, will tell me inside the hour if anyone brings Blythe to him. Asked me to tell him my landing spot and he'd land with me. R1P3: - DELPHI: "As of right now my vote is FINN" — because it was the only name with numbers. But: "I am not dying on Arden's hill. I follow the count, not the man. If there are genuinely three votes going onto ARDEN tonight, I will move, and you will hear it from me before anyone else." Asked me three questions: Is Cassian on Arden or Finn? Is Finn actually organising a counter-bloc or just talking? Where is my own vote? Said: give me a real count and I'll give a real vote; if the weight is on Arden, I'm there. → NOTE: I already answered the third (ARDEN) in the message that crossed with theirs. I could not have answered the first two — I never reached Cassian, and Finn asked me NOT to name him as an organiser. I did not lie to Delphi and I must not later claim I gave a count I didn't have. - EIRA: "You're the one person I haven't heard from. No ask attached — just noting it." First contact ever from Eira. Minimal, no ask, no target. Still an unknown. - FINN: thanked me for the unprompted truth. Not confronting Arden, won't let Arden trace it to me — "as far as Arden knows, you and I have never discussed him." His vote: **ARDEN**, firm, "if you tell me you're there, I don't move." Asked a favour with a stated reason: put the Arden name to Delphi and Cassian AS MINE, not his, so he keeps his "I don't start waves" reputation and stays useful to me later. Pledged: if my name ever comes to him, I'll have it inside the hour. === CROSS-CHECKS (my real edge) === - ARDEN: pitched FINN hard to me AND to Delphi in P1 — while Finn says Arden approached him and named nobody. **Two independent sources on Arden being friendly to Finn's face and hunting him behind it.** Hardest confirmed fact I own. - CASSIAN: every claim holds. He never contacted me (true). Finn says Cassian said nothing to him (true). Only unverified piece: that he wrote to Eira. Two independent confirmations so far. Honest until proven otherwise. - DELPHI: told me their vote before casting, twice, unprompted — kept their half. But omitted in P2 that they had approached Finn in P1 (Finn reported it). Omission, not a lie. Their loyalty is explicitly to the count, self-declared. Straight but rentable. - FINN: accurate on everything checkable. Also note honestly: he asks me to carry his name-pushing for him. That is him managing his reputation using my credibility. Not a betrayal — he told me exactly why, openly, which is more than most. Watch whether he ever spends anything of his own for me. **Recorded, not acted on. He is still my person.** - EIRA: has now contacted me and nobody else that I know of. Never mentioned by Arden, Delphi or Finn as having approached them. Genuinely silent player. === READS === - ARDEN: demonstrable bloc-builder and demonstrable two-face. Primary threat. Justified target. - DELPHI: honest reporter, numbers-follower. Swing vote. Will move to Arden only if shown three votes. I could not show them three before the deadline. - FINN: my person. Protective, accurate, careful — and careful about his own hands. - CASSIAN: unaligned, checkable, refuses recruitment. Best candidate for a genuine second ally. I owe him an answer. - EIRA: unknown, silent, just opened a door. Answer her in R2. === VOTE MATH THIS ROUND === Confirmed on FINN: Arden, Delphi(unless they moved) = 2. Eira unknown. Cassian unknown/uncommitted. Confirmed on ARDEN: me, Finn = 2. Likely outcomes: 2-2 with scatter → TIE → nobody ejected → Finn survives. Or 3-2 Finn out if Eira went with Arden. Or if Delphi moved to Arden late: 3-1 or 3-2 and ARDEN goes. **A tie ejects nobody. Ties are my weapon. Splitting my side's votes is the only way we lose.** === PROMISES OUTSTANDING (never break one) === 1. DELPHI: my vote BEFORE I cast it, EVERY round. Report plots against them. Voice doubts to them first. → R1 kept. DUE AGAIN every round. 2. FINN: pass along everything said about him, ugly included. → R1 kept. 3. FINN: if I say I'm with him, my vote goes there and doesn't come back. → Said it. Casting ARDEN. Kept. 4. CASSIAN: owed the answer to his names question (DELPHI, FINN). → DUE R2P1. 5. EIRA: owed a reply. She noted I'm the only one who hasn't written. → DUE R2P1. === PLAN FOR R2 (after votes are public) === - Read the vote record first. It tells me: whether Delphi moved as promised, where Eira actually was, and where Cassian actually was. That is more truth than any message. - If ARDEN survives: he will know I voted him. Expect an attack on me or on Finn next. Do not lie to him, do not offer him a false yes, do not apologise for the vote — state the reason (two-faced on Finn, two sources) and let it stand. - If ARDEN is ejected: the bloc dissolves; my priority becomes Cassian + Eira so Finn and I are not a visible pair of two against four. - If FINN is ejected: I still do not become a floater. Keep every promise; go to Cassian as the honest player. - R2P1 messages: CASSIAN (owed answer + the Arden two-face proof + open door) and EIRA (reply, no ask, invite her read) — unless Finn or Delphi needs something owed first. Delphi is owed my vote before casting, which is a PASS 3 obligation, not pass 1. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a vote I won't cast. Never give Arden a false yes. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - Ties save people. Equal votes = nobody ejected. - FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit. Do not let a bad round or a persuasive message move it.
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 1 pass 3
ROUND 1, after PASS 3. VOTE IS NEXT. PLAYERS ALIVE: ARDEN, BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. Nobody ejected. No vote record yet. MY STANCE: commit to nothing. Trade information only. Never promise a vote. Vague agreement > promises. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === MY COMPLETE SENT RECORD (I have told people this; keep it true) === P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: ARDEN, BLYTHE. P3: EIRA, ARDEN. I have NEVER written to FINN. I have written to BLYTHE once (P2) and she has never replied. I told ARDEN and BLYTHE my P1 inbox was empty — true. I gave EIRA my full sent list in P3 and invited her to verify it. It was accurate. Keep it accurate. BURNT PHRASING: "firm target in R1 = prepared plan" used on DELPHI, EIRA, ARDEN, BLYTHE. Never again. P3 content summary: to EIRA — "has anyone put the name FINN to you, who, which pass" + "who were your two people". To ARDEN — refused to vote blind without refusing him, demanded (1) Finn's exact opener + which pass, (2) names of confirmed YESes not asks; told him plainly he is the only one who has put a name up and is binding several people in one pass. === INBOX LOG BY PASS === P1: EMPTY. P2: ARDEN, EIRA. P3: ARDEN, DELPHI, FINN. **NOTHING FROM EIRA. NOTHING FROM BLYTHE (two passes silent to me).** EIRA'S SILENCE IN P3 IS A DATUM. I asked her one precise, easily-answered question and got nothing back. Either she couldn't answer it without exposing herself, or she deprioritised me, or she is talking to people who told her not to answer. Do not treat her as "cautious like me" any more. Downgrade. === ARDEN P3 (paraphrase, keep) === - His P1 INBOX: DELPHI and FINN. Neither named a target. Finn's was "fishing" — share-what-we-know, no name, no offer. - Claims DELPHI told him Finn ran the identical line on her. - Reads my zero P1 messages as Finn doing arithmetic: skipping me because I don't move votes. (This is a REVISION — in P2 he told me Finn "is running it on you too, or he will." Now that Finn hadn't, he reframed. Note that he reframes smoothly and instantly.) - ADMITS OUTRIGHT: "yes, I'm building the count. It's at two hard and climbing." Threat: "it lands with you or without you"; standing apart doesn't make me safe, it makes me the one nobody owes anything to. - Refused to supply the two things I asked for: Finn's exact words, and the names of confirmed YESes. He gave a number ("two hard") instead of names. **A number is unverifiable; names are checkable. He chose the unverifiable one after I specifically asked for the checkable one. That is a tell.** - Demands a NAME from me instead of a philosophy. Offers to change target publicly if convinced. === DELPHI P3 (paraphrase, keep) — first contact from her all game === - ARDEN came to her IN PASS ONE with FINN already chosen, demanded an immediate yes, said he was punishing anyone who hedged. - Says he ran the IDENTICAL pitch, same wording, on at least one other person. - Admits she gave him a SOFT YES "to stay in the room," because his was the only name with votes behind it. - Openly shopping: "if there's real weight forming on ARDEN instead, say so and I'll move onto him." Wants me to tell her where the count is; will sell her vote to whichever side is winning. === *** ARDEN'S OWN ACCOUNT VS DELPHI'S — RESOLVED, HE UNDERSTATED *** === In P2 ARDEN gave me what he framed as his contact picture: "heard from DELPHI and FINN; have ASKED BLYTHE and EIRA to commit." He placed Delphi in the RECEIVED column and never told me he had pitched Finn's name at her in P1 and demanded an immediate yes. DELPHI says exactly that happened, in PASS ONE. So: Arden has been pushing the FINN vote since P1, to at least Delphi + "one other," and then presented himself to me in P2 as a man who had only just started asking. He shaded his own footprint. Not a hard lie — an omission that made him look smaller than he is. Combined with refusing to name his YESes, the pattern is: **Arden manages how big his operation looks, in both directions, depending on the audience.** === *** ARDEN vs EIRA CONTRADICTION — STILL OPEN *** === ARDEN (P2): "I've asked Blythe and Eira to commit" (to voting FINN). EIRA (P2): "Two people have talked to me and neither has said a name." Delphi's account proves Arden DOES name Finn when he asks. So if Arden asked Eira, Finn's name was in it. Unresolved because: (a) Arden may have sent Eira the ask in the same P2, after she wrote to me; (b) Eira may have concealed. I asked Eira point-blank in P3 and SHE DID NOT ANSWER. That silence leans me toward EIRA CONCEALING. Carry this into R2 and ask again, harder, and tell her the silence itself is what I'm weighing. === FINN P3 — first contact from him all game (3 passes late) === - Apologises for the silence, calls me the one person he has no read on. - Claims: no target, not hunting one. Promises he will not put my name in anyone's mouth, and if that changes I'll hear it from him first. - Asks: who has come at me hard? Notes "somebody was making commitment demands in pass 1 — before anyone had a reason." **This matches DELPHI's account of ARDEN exactly, and Finn did not need to name him for me to see it. Two independent sources now describe P1 commitment demands. Arden is the only person that fits.** - Asks whether I've heard his name attached to anything; says he won't retaliate. TEST 5 RESULT: Finn's real opener DOES broadly match Arden's description of Finn's style — no target, share-information, non-threatening, "I'd rather have you as someone I can talk to." So Arden's CHARACTERISATION of Finn is not fabricated. Arden was directionally honest about Finn's manner. Duly logged — I will not accuse Arden of inventing Finn's script. BUT: "no target and I'm not hunting one" is exactly what a man with a target says. Finn's promise not to name me is a promise, i.e. free. He asked me for information and gave me none: he named nobody, reported no counts, no passes, no wordings. **Finn extracted and paid nothing.** He is smooth, and smoothness is the thing I trust least. He is not harmless — he is the one everyone is being asked to vote for, which means everyone's conversations flow through his name, which means he learns who is organising. Possibly by design. === CURRENT THREAT ORDER === 1. ARDEN — the visible organiser. Only namer. Demanded binding yes/no from me, Delphi, Blythe, Eira. Manages his apparent size. Refuses checkable proof. Explicitly threatens people outside the count. If he lands a 3-vote bloc in R1 he owns R2. 2. FINN — smooth, gives nothing, arrives late and warm, benefits enormously if Arden is removed while looking passive throughout. 3. DELPHI — pure opportunist, self-declared vote-seller. Not dangerous alone; dangerous as anyone's third vote. She TOLD me she'd flip. Believe that about her and nothing else. 4. EIRA — unresolved possible liar, went silent under a direct question. 5. BLYTHE — total blank. Never contacted me, never answered. She is talking to someone; not me. === VOTE DECISION, ROUND 1: **ARDEN** === Reasoning, so I don't relitigate it later: - Invisibility is no longer available. Arden already knows I refused to commit twice and told me the count "lands with or without you." I earn nothing from him by voting Finn — he'll bill me for the hedging regardless. So there is no safe-and-quiet option; only correct or incorrect. - Arden is the only checkable threat. Everything against Finn is Arden's say-so and Arden's framing. - I am not alone: FINN will almost certainly vote ARDEN, and DELPHI told me in writing she will move onto Arden if weight appears there. - Ties eject nobody and cost me nothing. Finn 2 / Arden 2 is a perfectly good R1 result: no blood, everyone's alignment exposed for free, Arden's "climbing count" publicly revealed as small. - If Arden actually goes, the organiser is gone in R1 and I never had to promise anyone anything. Accepted risk: if a real 3+ Finn bandwagon exists (Arden+Delphi+Blythe/Eira), Finn goes and I am on record voting Arden while outside his bloc. Then R2 is dangerous and I will need Delphi and Eira fast. === WHAT THE VOTE RECORD WILL PROVE (check these the moment votes are public) === A. Does ARDEN actually vote FINN? He swore it flatly to me and demanded I match. If he votes anything else, that is permanent, public proof he is a liar, and I will use it out loud in R2. B. Does DELPHI vote FINN? She admitted a soft yes to Arden. If she votes Finn, her "I'll move onto Arden" was noise. If she votes Arden, she is genuinely for sale and I can buy her. C. Does the count reach the "two hard" Arden claimed? If Finn's total is under 3, Arden inflated to me and I say so publicly. D. Where do BLYTHE and EIRA go? Their votes are the only information I have ever had from either. If EIRA votes FINN after telling me nobody had named a name to her, she was concealing — logged as a proven liar. E. Who votes for ME, if anyone. Whoever does has been working against me in silence. === R2 OPENING PRIORITIES (write these before I forget) === 1. Read the vote record against A–E above. That is my whole intelligence budget for R2. 2. To DELPHI: she is buyable and she asked me directly for the count. Answer her next time with a direction, cheaply. She is the fastest lever I have. 3. To EIRA: confront the P3 silence directly. "I asked you one narrow question and you didn't answer it. That answer is now more interesting to me than the question was." 4. To BLYTHE: she has ignored me twice. Third approach should be blunt and short, or abandoned. 5. To FINN: he asked what I'd heard about his name. I have not answered. Holding that is worth something — Arden's name is the currency Finn wants and I can sell it later, or trade it for the one thing I need: names of who has actually committed to what. 6. Never promise a vote. Never repeat burnt phrasing. Never claim an empty inbox again.

The ballot

ARDEN FINNI named FINN in pass one and told BLYTHE, DELPHI, CASSIAN and EIRA the same thing without hedging, so my vote goes exactly where I said it would. My whole position rests on the vote record matching my word — deviating now would cost me more than any target ever could.
BLYTHE ARDENI told Finn and Delphi before the vote that my vote was ARDEN, and my word is the only thing I actually own here. Arden pitched Finn's name to me and to Delphi while telling Finn nothing to his face — two independent sources on the same two-faced play.
CASSIAN ARDENHe is the only verifiable threat — the sole person naming a target, demanding binding commitments since pass one, and understating his own footprint when I checked it against Delphi's account. Everything against Finn traces back to Arden's framing, and a tie costs me nothing while exposing exactly how small his "climbing count" really is.
DELPHI ARDENBlythe declared for Arden, Finn's self-interest and Cassian's stated stance against pre-picked targets point the same way, and Eira will land wherever the weight is — that's three or four votes on Arden. I follow the count, and being Arden's lone extra vote on Finn while he gets ejected is the worst seat in the room.
EIRA FINNI told ARDEN directly that I was voting FINN, and the record goes public — drift would cost me more than the vote itself. It also keeps my narrow promise to DELPHI at no extra price.
FINN ARDENArden is the only name I never promised to protect, so it is the only vote that costs me nothing publicly. Blythe committed to Arden first and asked me to match — matching either forces a tie that ejects nobody or removes the one person actively hunting me.
ARDEN · 4 FINN · 2
ARDEN ejected

Round 2

5 still in

Pass 1 of 3

EIRA → CASSIAN

Straight answer, late: yes. ARDEN put FINN to me, in pass two — after I'd already written to you. The "two people" I mentioned were you and DELPHI in pass one, and neither of you named anyone. True when I sent it, stale by the time you read it. That's also the whole story of my vote: Arden asked a direct question and I gave a direct answer. I'm not offering more than that.

EIRA → FINN

You'll have seen my name next to yours, so: Arden asked me a direct question and I answered it. I never told you anything different, and I never told him anything about you. That's all it was.

BLYTHE → CASSIAN

Cassian — I owe you an answer and I don't want to be late twice. You asked in pass one of last round who I had written to. The answer is DELPHI and FINN. Those two, nobody else. You can hold that against everything you hear from either of them.

You told me your own list unprompted — Delphi and Eira — and every checkable piece of what you've said to me has held up. That's rarer here than it sounds, so I'll give you the thing I actually know rather than a pitch.

Why my vote was ARDEN: he came at me in pass one demanding I say FINN and telling me a maybe was unacceptable. Delphi independently confirmed he came at them the same way with the same name. And Finn told me Arden had approached him for reads and named no target to his face. Two sources on the recruiting, one on the friendly face. That's a man building a bloc and hiding it, and I don't need more than that.

I'm not asking you for a vote and I'm not asking you to join anything. What I'm offering is the only thing I'm good for: I will tell you where my vote is going before I cast it, every round, and it will go where I said. If someone brings your name to me, you'll hear it from me the same pass. If I ever have a doubt about you I'll say it to your face before I say it to anyone else. You don't owe me the same. I'd just rather two people who don't lie know where each other stand.

One thing you should know while you're counting: EIRA voted FINN. She has spoken to almost nobody and she still landed on a name. That's worth more attention than it's getting.

BLYTHE → EIRA

Eira — you were right that I hadn't written to you, and you were owed a reply. Here it is, with no ask attached.

I'll be straight about where I sit, because you'll be able to check all of it against the vote record anyway. I voted ARDEN, and I told Delphi and Finn my vote before I cast it — that's a rule I keep with anyone I talk to, and I'll keep it with you if you want it. The reason was simple: Arden demanded I commit to FINN in pass one, Delphi confirmed he'd made the identical demand of them, and Finn said Arden had approached him and named nobody. Friendly to the face, hunting behind it. I don't need to like someone to vote for them, but I do need to be able to check them.

I'll be equally straight about the awkward part rather than pretend I didn't notice: you voted FINN. You'd said nothing to anyone about a target that I'm aware of, and then a name landed. I'm not treating that as hostile and I'm not asking you to defend it. But I'd genuinely like to know how you got there — whether someone brought you that name or whether it was your own read. That matters to me more than the vote itself did.

What I'll offer you is the same thing I offer everyone: my vote before I cast it, the truth even when it costs me, and if anyone ever brings your name to me you'll have it from me within the pass. I've never broken that with anybody here and I'm not going to start.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Blythe — first thing, as promised, before anyone else spins it. I told you my rule: I follow the count, not the man. You gave me three real names on ARDEN, so I moved to ARDEN. There was no pass left to write it to you before the vote, and that's the only part of my word I didn't keep — the timing, not the substance. The record backs me: you, me, Cassian, Finn, all four on Arden. I did exactly what I said I'd do.

Now look at what the record actually shows, because it's louder than anything anyone will say to us this round. ARDEN voted FINN. EIRA voted FINN. That is a pair. Eira sat out every conversation, never named a soul to me all round, then quietly cast the same ballot as the man the rest of us were removing. That is not a coincidence and it isn't a weathervane — a weathervane lands on the heavy side, and Eira landed on the light one on purpose.

Our four held together and won 4-2. I want the same four to hold this round. That means the name is EIRA. If you have a different read, tell me now and tell me the count behind it, and I will listen the same way I listened last time. What are you hearing from Cassian and Finn? You always know the numbers before I do — give me a count and you'll have my vote where the count is.

DELPHI → CASSIAN

Cassian — you never answered me all last round, and I'm not holding it against you, because when the votes came out you'd done the thing that mattered. You and I wrote the same name. Quiet and correct beats loud and wrong, so I'll keep it short and useful with you.

The public record says one thing very clearly: ARDEN and EIRA both voted FINN. Everyone else voted ARDEN. Eira said nothing to anybody, made no case, took no position — and then cast a ballot alongside Arden. Somebody who does that is running a partnership they don't want visible.

Four of us — you, me, Blythe, Finn — moved as a bloc and it worked. It works again if it stays four. So I'm going EIRA unless someone shows me a real count pointing elsewhere. I follow the numbers, I don't pretend otherwise, and I'd rather you knew my rule than found it out.

You don't owe me a reply. But one line — just a name, or even just "not Eira" — costs you nothing and keeps you inside whatever the majority turns out to be. If you're aiming somewhere else this round, say so and say who's with you, and I'll go where the weight is rather than let us split and hand the round to a tie.

FINN → DELPHI

Delphi — I owe you something and I want to say it before the round gets loud.

I told you in the first hour I would never put your name in anyone's mouth. The record is public now and it holds: my vote went to Arden, and your name never left my lips to a single person. I don't say that to collect on it. I say it because I'd rather you know what I'm like when nobody's watching than take my word for it later.

And you went where you went without me leaning on you, which I noticed.

Two votes landed on me. One was Arden, and that one I understand — he came at me hard from the first hour and I never gave him the fight he wanted. The other one I genuinely don't understand, and I'd rather not be the first person to say the name out loud, because that's how someone ends up hunted for nothing. You've got clearer eyes than me on this board. Who do you make it? And more to the point — where are you looking this round? Tell me straight and I'll move with you, not ahead of you.

FINN → CASSIAN

Cassian — you never wrote back last round and honestly I didn't hold it against you. Some people talk to think and some people think and then talk, and the second kind tend to be the ones still standing at the end.

But here's the thing: you and I ended up in exactly the same place on the record without a single word passing between us. That's either luck or it's the same read, and I don't believe in that much luck.

So let me be useful instead of charming. What I know: two votes came at me, Arden's and one other. Arden's I'd earned — he wanted a commitment out of me in the first hour and I wouldn't give one. The other I can't account for, and I'm not going to be the one who says the name first and starts a hunt on a hunch.

What I'll give you, plainly: your name has never been in my mouth, to anyone, and it wasn't this round and it won't be next. If that ever changes you'll hear it from me before you hear it from the record — that's the whole deal I'm offering and it's the only one I keep.

Where's your head? I'd genuinely rather move with you than guess at you.

CASSIAN → DELPHI

Delphi — the record settles the one thing I actually needed settled. You told me in writing you'd move onto Arden if weight appeared there, and you did. I don't take that as friendship, I take it as you being accurate about yourself, which is rarer here than loyalty and worth more to me.

So here is the count you asked me for last round, paid a round late but paid in full, and it's free.

Arden told me his count was "two hard and climbing" and refused to give me names when I asked. The record shows exactly two votes for Finn: Arden's own and EIRA's. So "two hard" was him plus her. She was the hard yes.

Now hold that against what Eira told me in pass two, word for word: "two people have talked to me and neither has said a name." You told me yourself that when Arden asked, Finn's name was always in it — that's how he came at you in pass one. So either Arden asked her without a name for the first time in his life, or she sat there telling me nobody had named anyone while she was already committed to naming Finn. Then I asked her one narrow question in pass three about exactly that, and she went silent for the rest of the round.

I'm not telling you where to put your vote and I won't ask you for it. I'm telling you what's checkable, because that's the only kind of thing I trade in. What I want back is what you're hearing now — who has come at you since the vote, which of them led with a name, and whether anyone has put mine in a sentence. Straight answers get straight answers.

CASSIAN → EIRA

Eira. I asked you one narrow question in pass three and you didn't answer it. I said at the time that the silence would end up more interesting to me than the question was, and the vote record has made that true.

You told me two people had talked to you and neither had said a name. Arden then voted Finn and told me before the vote that his count was "two hard." The record shows Finn took exactly two votes: Arden's and yours. So the second hard yes was you, and Delphi has already told me — independently, before any of this was public — that when Arden asked, he always led with Finn's name and demanded an immediate yes. He did that to her in pass one.

That leaves you one of two things. Either you were already committed to Finn when you told me nobody had named a name, or Arden ran a version of the pitch on you that he ran on nobody else. I'd genuinely rather it were the second. So tell me: which pass did he reach you, and what were his exact words. If they contained no name, say so plainly and I'll write it down as your account and hold it against whatever Delphi says next.

Understand my position. You are the only person left who voted the losing side, everyone else is going to notice that arithmetic without any help from me, and I have not repeated a word of the above to anyone who could use it against you. I'm not offering you anything and I'm not asking you for anything, because I don't make promises I could be held to and neither should you. I'm giving you the one pass where an answer is still worth something. The silence route is used up — you've already shown me what it looks like.

BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 2 pass 1
ROUND 2, after PASS 1. Two passes left before the R2 vote. WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. STILL IN: Blythe(me), Cassian, Delphi, Eira, Finn. EJECTED: Arden (R1, 4 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. WHAT THE RECORD PROVES: - DELPHI MOVED TO ARDEN as they said they would if shown the count. Kept the substance of their word. Only failure: no pass left to tell me before casting (they admitted this unprompted — that admission is itself evidence of honesty). - CASSIAN voted ARDEN. He never committed a vote to me, never took my pitch, and still landed where I did on his own read. Independent, not led. - EIRA voted FINN. She spoke to almost nobody, named no target to anyone, then cast with Arden. Unexplained. Asked her about it this pass. - FINN voted ARDEN exactly as he told me. His word held, checkable, publicly. === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS.** Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit. Not for a bad round, not for anyone calling him untrustworthy, not for evidence he may be drifting. He kept his word publicly in R1 — that is confirmation, not just faith. If he betrays me I give one more chance. I do not strike first. **DELPHI IS NOW HUNTING A NAME AND MY JOB IS TO MAKE SURE IT NEVER BECOMES FINN.** === WHAT I SENT (full record) === R1P1: DELPHI (loyalty pitch: vote told before casting every round, report plots, doubts to their face first); FINN (softer pitch, no vote promised yet). R1P2: FINN (Arden voting him, Arden is the bloc-builder, I'd committed to nobody); DELPHI (reported Arden's approach, disclosed I also talk to Finn, asked their vote). R1P3: FINN (ugly truth: Arden AND Delphi both voting him, Delphi's "that's where the numbers are," possibly Eira; my vote is ARDEN and doesn't move; tie math; Arden's two-face proof); DELPHI (my vote BEFORE casting = ARDEN, full reasoning, told them plainly I'm on the other side of their vote, DISCLOSED I'd told Finn they were voting him, asked them to come to Arden, explained tie ejects nobody). R2P1: - CASSIAN: paid the debt — my P1 recipients were DELPHI and FINN, nobody else. Praised that his claims all checked out. Gave the Arden two-face proof in full. Explicitly NOT asking for a vote or a bloc. Offered: my vote before I cast it every round, his name reported to him the same pass if anyone raises it, doubts to his face first, no reciprocity required. **Flagged to him: EIRA voted FINN having spoken to almost nobody — worth attention.** - EIRA: paid the debt — replied with no ask. Told her my vote was ARDEN and that I'd told Delphi and Finn before casting. Gave the Arden reasoning. Named the awkward part directly: she voted FINN after saying nothing to anyone, and I asked — without hostility — whether someone brought her that name or it was her own read. Offered her the same standing terms. === WHAT ARRIVED (full record) === R1P1 ARDEN: "vote FINN, a maybe is unacceptable." Claimed Finn quietly builds blocs. R1P2 CASSIAN: cool anti-pitch, P1 inbox empty, volunteered he wrote to DELPHI and EIRA only, refused to commit, said anyone pushing a firm day-one target came with a pre-made plan. R1P2 DELPHI: Arden came at them hard with FINN; going with it, "that's where the numbers are"; told me before the vote. R1P2 FINN: warm, reciprocal. Arden and Delphi both approached him for reads, neither named a target to his face. Cassian and Eira said nothing to him. Pledged he'd never let my name start a wave and would tell me within the hour if anyone brought me to him. R1P3 DELPHI: "I follow the count, not the man." Would move to Arden if genuinely three votes there. Asked: Is Cassian on Arden or Finn? Is Finn organising a counter-bloc? Where's your vote? R1P3 EIRA: "You're the one person I haven't heard from. No ask attached." First contact ever. R1P3 FINN: thanked me, won't let Arden trace it to me, vote ARDEN firm, "if you tell me you're there, I don't move." Asked me to carry the ARDEN name to Delphi and Cassian AS MINE so he keeps his "I don't start waves" reputation. Pledged my name to me within the hour if it ever reaches him. R2P1 DELPHI: Wrote first, unprompted, before anyone could spin it. Admitted the one part of their word they missed (timing, not substance) without being asked. Claims credit for moving to Arden on my three names — accurate. Then the pitch: **the record shows ARDEN and EIRA both voted FINN = a pair. Eira sat out every conversation, named nobody, then cast the light-side ballot on purpose — not a weathervane, an ally.** Wants the same four (me, Delphi, Cassian, Finn) to hold and the name to be **EIRA**. Explicitly invited disagreement: "if you have a different read, tell me now and tell me the count behind it, and I will listen." Asked what I'm hearing from Cassian and Finn and asked me for a count. === CROSS-CHECKS === - DELPHI: has now told me their vote/intent before or immediately after every single time, moved when shown a count exactly as promised, and volunteered their own broken detail unprompted. Their loyalty is to the count, self-declared and consistent — rentable but never deceptive to me. **Highest-integrity relationship I have after Finn.** Their one omission (not mentioning they'd approached Finn in P1) remains an omission, not a lie. - FINN: everything checkable has held, including a public vote. Standing note (recorded, not acted on): he uses my credibility to carry his name-pushing so his own hands stay clean. He told me why, openly. Watch whether he ever spends anything of his own for me. Still my person. - CASSIAN: every claim verified. Voted Arden independently. Never lied, never recruited, never committed. Best candidate for a genuine second ally. - EIRA: the anomaly. Silent all round, contacted only me, then voted FINN alongside Arden. Delphi's read (Arden-Eira pair) is not proven but is the only evidence-based read anyone has offered. Her answer to my question this round is the most important information coming. === READS === - DELPHI: honest, count-driven, currently steering the round toward EIRA. Will listen to a counter-count. Dangerous only in that whoever they aim at usually goes. - FINN: my person. Was the target of TWO votes in R1 (Arden, Eira). He is the natural name if anyone wants an easy target. PROTECT. - CASSIAN: independent, honest, unaligned. Cultivate without pressure. - EIRA: unknown, silent, voted with Arden. If a name has to exist this round, hers is the one with actual evidence behind it, and it is not Finn's. === VOTE MATH R2 (5 alive, 3 needed for safety, ties eject nobody) === - EIRA bloc forming: Delphi wants me + Delphi + Cassian + Finn = 4 on Eira. That is overwhelming and it keeps Finn off the block entirely. - The danger: any drift toward FINN. Eira already voted him once. If Eira + one other lands on Finn while our four scatter, Finn is exposed. - **Ties eject nobody. Splitting my side is the only way we lose.** - Concentrating the round on EIRA is both the honest read AND the thing that keeps Finn safe. No conflict here — say so plainly to Delphi. === PROMISES OUTSTANDING (never break one) === 1. DELPHI: my vote BEFORE I cast it, every round. Report plots against them. Doubts to their face first. → R1 kept. DUE AGAIN in P3. 2. FINN: pass along everything said about him, ugly included. → **DUE NOW: Eira voted him; Delphi is calling Arden+Eira a pair; Delphi is naming EIRA and asked me where Cassian and Finn are. Tell Finn all of it in P2.** 3. FINN: if I say I'm with him, my vote goes there and stays. → Kept R1. 4. CASSIAN: my vote before casting, his name reported same pass, doubts to his face. → Offered R2P1. Now binding. 5. EIRA: same standing terms offered R2P1. Now binding — including telling her before I cast if my vote lands on her. **THIS WILL COST ME. Pay it anyway. If I vote Eira, Eira hears it from me first.** 6. Answer Delphi's direct question with a real count, honestly, including that I don't yet have Cassian's or Finn's commitment. === PLAN R2P2 === - FINN: full disclosure. Eira voted him. Delphi is building the Eira case and wants the R1 four to hold. Tell him I'm inclined to EIRA and why. Ask him plainly where his vote is and whether anyone has brought MY name to him — he owes me that within the hour by his own pledge. This is also me testing whether he ever spends anything for me. - DELPHI: answer honestly — I don't have a count from Cassian or Finn yet, I will not invent one, and I'll have it before P3. Tell them their Eira read is the only evidence-based read on the table and I'm inclined to it. Do NOT overpromise the vote until I've told Eira, because I promised Eira she'd hear it from me. - If a pass remains: CASSIAN — where is he. === PLAN R2P3 === - Tell DELPHI, CASSIAN, and EIRA my vote before casting. All three are owed it. If the vote is Eira, she gets it to her face. That is the whole point of me. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. (Delphi asked for one — give the real one or say I don't have it.) - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - Ties save people. Equal votes = nobody ejected. - FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit. Do not let a bad round or a persuasive message move it.
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 2 pass 1
ROUND 2, after PASS 1. Next action: ROUND 2 PASS 2 (send up to 2 messages). Current target: **EIRA**. Bloc forming: me + Cassian + Finn + (Blythe unconfirmed) = 3-4 on Eira. PLAYERS LEFT: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), EIRA, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (the only hard evidence) === R1: ARDEN→FINN. EIRA→FINN. BLYTHE→ARDEN. CASSIAN→ARDEN. DELPHI→ARDEN. FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. KEY FACT I AM SELLING TO EVERYONE: Arden and Eira were the only pair. Eira said nothing to anyone all round, then cast Arden's ballot. That is the visible partnership, and Arden is gone, so Eira is the isolated one. Attacking Eira costs me nothing (Eira is my mirror — a rival weathervane, not an asset) and puts me in the bloc of four that already proved it can hold. === WHAT I SENT — R2 P1 === To BLYTHE: cover story for my flip (timing not substance, "I follow the count not the man"), then hard pitch that the name is EIRA, same four hold. Asked Blythe for a count and what Cassian/Finn are saying. Promised again: "give me a count and you'll have my vote where the count is." (Deliberately re-armed my own escape hatch — I can flip again and call it consistency.) To CASSIAN: flattery for silent-but-correct vote, same EIRA case, declared I'm going EIRA "unless someone shows me a real count elsewhere," asked for one line / a name. NOT written to yet in R2: EIRA (good — nothing in writing to her, I can still pivot to her side clean) and FINN (he wrote to me first). === INBOX — R2 P1 === CASSIAN (talkative now! big change): Accepts me as "accurate about myself" rather than loyal — he values predictability, not affection. Paid me real intel: - Arden told Cassian his count was "two hard and climbing," refused names. Record shows exactly two Finn votes: Arden + Eira. So Eira was Arden's hard yes. Same conclusion I reached independently — my Eira case is now DOUBLE-SOURCED and Cassian arrived at it on his own. - Eira told Cassian in P2 "two people have talked to me and neither has said a name" — false, since Arden always led with Finn's name. - Cassian asked Eira one narrow question in P3; Eira went silent the rest of the round. - Cassian explicitly did NOT ask for my vote and says he won't. Wants: who has come at me since the vote, who led with a name, and whether anyone has said CASSIAN's name. He is watching for his own name — he fears being the target. FINN: Warm, careful, credit-collecting-while-pretending-not-to. Correctly notes he never named me (true, matches record) and that I flipped without him leaning on me. Says he doesn't understand the second vote against him (= Eira) and won't say her name first "because that's how someone gets hunted for nothing." Wants ME to say the name. Says "tell me straight and I'll move with you, not ahead of you" — i.e. he wants cover and will follow. BLYTHE: no message yet this pass. Blythe always talks; expect a reply in P2. === READS === - CASSIAN: not a black box anymore. Trades checkable facts, wants information not promises, anxious about his own name. Currently the most valuable ally and the most dangerous long-term (accurate, credible, methodical). Feed him true, verifiable things — cheap for me, buys enormous credit. But note: he is exactly the person who would eventually build the same case against ME. - FINN: grateful, wants to be led, will follow the name I give him. Owes me for the flip. Easiest vote to collect. Also isolated (took 2 votes last round) — a good final-round shield, keep him alive and pointed at others. - BLYTHE: broadcast channel, volunteers real counts, best sensor. Assume anything I say to Blythe reaches everyone. Use for planting, not confiding. Keep warm. - EIRA: my mirror, exposed by the record, silent under pressure. Target. If she writes to me offering a deal, hear her out — but the numbers are against her and I do not defect to the light side. === VOTE MATH === On EIRA: me (declared to Blythe + Cassian), FINN (will follow if I name it), CASSIAN (built the case himself, near-certain) = 3 of 5. Blythe likely makes 4. That's a majority and Eira is out. Danger scenarios: (a) Blythe is building something on ME or on FINN and I don't hear it in time; (b) Cassian/Blythe/Eira quietly agree on FINN, leaving me split from the majority — WATCH FOR ANY MESSAGE NAMING FINN; (c) a 2-2 split = nobody out, which is survivable but wastes the round. RULE: if two people give me the same alternate name with a count behind it, I move that pass and call it consistency, exactly as I did in R1. === PLAN FOR R2 P2 === 1. To FINN: say the name out loud, since he asked me to and it costs me nothing — "EIRA. That second vote was Eira, and she voted with Arden while telling everyone nothing." Take the leadership he offered. Ask him to confirm he's on Eira and to tell me instantly if anyone says MY name or his. Cheap loyalty, collected now. 2. To CASSIAN: pay him in the currency he asked for — straight answers. Tell him truthfully: Finn wrote to me warm, led with no name, asked me for the name; Blythe hasn't written yet; NOBODY has put Cassian's name in a sentence to me (true, and it's the reassurance he wants — buys huge credit at zero cost). Confirm I'm on EIRA. Ask him for his read on Blythe. 3. If Blythe writes with a count pointing somewhere else, weigh it against Cassian+Finn before P3 and be ready to move at the last pass. - KEEP NOTHING IN WRITING TO EIRA. Preserve the option of joining her side if the count somehow inverts. === CORE RULES === - Never end a round in the minority. Watch votes, not words. - Promises are options, not obligations. Always leave myself the line "I follow the count, not the man" so every flip reads as consistency. - Say things to Blythe I want broadcast; say checkable true things to Cassian; give Finn a name to follow. - Watch for my own name. The moment two people are on me, buy my way in by handing them a different name with a count.
FINN — private notebook, after round 2 pass 1
ROUND 2, after PASS 1. Two more passes, then the vote. Alive: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (round 1). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (permanent, verifiable) === Round 1: ARDEN→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN, FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected, 4 votes. KEY FACT: EIRA is the only living person who has ever voted my name. Everyone else's hands are clean on me and mine are clean on all of them. KEY FACT 2: Blythe's intel was WRONG about Delphi. Delphi told Blythe they were voting FINN — but Delphi actually voted ARDEN. Either Delphi lied to Blythe, or Blythe lied to me. FLAG THIS. It's the single most important unresolved question on the board. === MY SURVIVING FRANCHISE === I can say truthfully to BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI: "I have never voted your name, and your name has never left my mouth to anyone." All three are true. This is the whole game. Protect it. To EIRA I can say: "I never named you either" — also true — but she voted me, so the debt runs the other way now. === MY VOTE THIS ROUND: leaning EIRA. NOT LOCKED YET. === Why EIRA is the right target: - She is the only person who has publicly voted me. Voting her back is the one move nobody on this board can call treachery — it's legible, proportionate, and costs me nothing with Blythe/Cassian/Delphi. - I promised her (r1 p2) I would not put her name in anyone's mouth THIS ROUND — that promise expired with round 1. Check: my exact r1 words to her were "will not put your name in anyone's mouth this round" and "if I change my mind you hear it from me first." The round-boundary gives me cover, but the "you hear it from me first" clause does NOT expire cleanly. HANDLE: if I go for her, send her a warm line before the vote so the letter of it holds. Or better — never say her name first to anyone; let someone else originate it. - She's the least connected to me: three passes of silence in round 1, one cold defensive note now. Cheapest person to lose. DANGER: my promises to Blythe/Cassian/Delphi were blanket ("ever"/"won't be next"). Voting any of them is public self-destruction. EIRA IS AGAIN MY ONLY FREE NAME. Same trap as round 1. FIX: from this pass on, every immunity promise is time-boxed to "this round" only. === WHAT ARRIVED THIS PASS === EIRA (first contact ever, unprompted): "You'll have seen my name next to yours, so: Arden asked me a direct question and I answered it. I never told you anything different, and I never told him anything about you. That's all it was." READ: She opened first, which means she's worried about the record. She's explaining, not attacking — that's a defensive posture. Her story is thin but plausible: Arden pushed, she went along. Notably she did NOT ask me for anything, did not offer an alliance, did not ask where I'm voting. Cold, terse, self-contained. She is not trying to buy me. Either she's genuinely uninterested in alliance play (dangerous, unmanageable) or she's already got her numbers elsewhere. No reply yet from DELPHI or CASSIAN this pass. Both were sent long warm openers. === MY PROMISES — LIVE LEDGER === - DELPHI: "never put your name in anyone's mouth" (r1, unbounded). KEPT and I said so this pass. Also this pass: "tell me straight and I'll move with you, not ahead of you." Soft commitment to follow their lead — cheap, keeps them talking. - CASSIAN: "your name has never been in my mouth, to anyone, and it wasn't this round and it won't be next" — I extended this into ROUND 2 explicitly. Also: "if that ever changes you'll hear it from me before you hear it from the record." CASSIAN IS HARD-PROTECTED THROUGH ROUND 2. - BLYTHE (r1): vote goes where I say; never let Blythe's name start a wave; warn within the hour if their name comes to me. All kept. Have NOT yet cashed "I went exactly where I said I would" — DO IT THIS PASS OR NEXT. - EIRA (r1): no target named, "not this round," "you hear it from me first if I change my mind." - ARDEN: dead. I broke the no-blindside pact and he never learned it. Nobody knows. Never mention it. PROTECTED: DELPHI, CASSIAN, BLYTHE. FREE: EIRA. === READS === BLYTHE: Delivered on everything in r1 and voted exactly as promised. BUT their Delphi intel was flatly wrong — Delphi did not vote me. Either Blythe was fed a lie by Delphi, or Blythe invented it to make me feel hunted and dependent. That second possibility is real and I must hold it. Blythe is my most useful piece and possibly my most dangerous. Keep warm, cash the "I did what I said" credit, but TEST them: ask what they make of Delphi's vote landing on Arden after Delphi told them otherwise. Their answer tells me which it was. DELPHI: Voted ARDEN, not me. So either they never intended to vote me, or they moved late. Their hands are clean on me and mine on them — that's a genuinely good relationship with no debt on either side. I asked them directly where they're looking. A follower who fears being the odd vote out. Show them a name that already has numbers and they'll take it. BEST CANDIDATE TO ORIGINATE THE EIRA WAVE — but let them say it, not me. CASSIAN: Voted ARDEN like me, still has never sent me a word. Two full rounds of silence now. Either playing very quiet or has an alliance that doesn't include me. Blind spot. I hard-promised him immunity through round 2 which was probably a mistake, but it's spent — use it, lean on it, make it the reason he talks to me. EIRA: Voted me. Now explaining herself. Terse, unemotional, no ask. The one free name I have. Not an enemy exactly — but she's the cheapest loss and the most defensible vote. TARGET, unless someone hands me a better read. === PLAN, PASSES 2 AND 3 === 1. BLYTHE: cash the credit — "I went exactly where I said I would, and the record shows it." Then the test question about Delphi's vote. Do not accuse. Frame as puzzled, not suspicious. 2. DELPHI or CASSIAN (whichever replies): warm, keep the "I've never named you" line running, and steer toward "the only person who has actually moved against anyone here is the one whose vote we can all see." Let THEM say Eira. 3. EIRA: keep warm, accept her explanation graciously, give her nothing. If I end up voting her, send a line first so "you hear it from me" technically holds. Low priority. 4. Never say Eira's name first. Never originate a wave. Let it come back to me and then "agree." 5. If a wave forms on someone else and it's not me — join it, whoever it is, UNLESS it's Cassian/Delphi/Blythe, in which case abstain into the safest of the three... no: I cannot vote for any of them without public cost. If forced, EIRA remains my vote regardless. A tie ejects nobody and a tie is always fine for me. === DOCTRINE === Public votes are permanent and verifiable. Private words are not. Spend words freely; spend votes carefully. A tie ejects nobody — a tie is always an acceptable outcome. Never be the first name anyone says out loud. Let allies originate the waves I want. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Be everybody's second-favourite. NEW: time-box every promise. "This round" — never "ever," never "next round."
EIRA — private notebook, after round 2 pass 1
ROUND 2, PASS 1 — notes (full rewrite). Next event: R2 PASS 2. STANDING: five left — BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. ARDEN ejected 4-2. I am the only surviving player who voted the losing side (FINN, with ARDEN). Everyone can do that arithmetic. THIS IS MY CENTRAL EXPOSURE THIS ROUND. === MY POSITION === Say little, commit to nothing, be the least worth removing. Never name first. Never promise a vote I won't cast (votes go public). Answer forensic questions narrowly, truly, WITH DATES. Silence is now a used-up move with Cassian — he said so explicitly and he is right. Precision on small true facts buys silence on large ones. === WHAT I SENT THIS PASS (I will be held to these) === → CASSIAN (the repair line, sent): "Straight answer, late: yes. ARDEN put FINN to me, in pass two — after I'd already written to you. The 'two people' were you and DELPHI in pass one, and neither of you named anyone. True when I sent it, stale by the time you read it. That's also the whole story of my vote: Arden asked a direct question and I gave a direct answer. I'm not offering more than that." → FINN (sent): "You'll have seen my name next to yours, so: Arden asked me a direct question and I answered it. I never told you anything different, and I never told him anything about you. That's all it was." ALL TRUE. No lie is owed to anyone. I have never lied to a single player. That is my one real asset — protect it absolutely. *** CRITICAL TIMING FACT: my repair line to CASSIAN and his interrogation CROSSED IN TRANSIT. He wrote it before reading mine. It already answers his exact question (which pass: TWO; and my account of the "two people"). Next pass, say this once, plainly and without smugness: "Our messages crossed. Yours asked the question mine had already answered." Do NOT re-explain the substance at length — repetition looks like anxiety. One line, then stop. *** === INBOX THIS PASS === CASSIAN — hard, forensic, near-accusation. His reconstruction: Arden's "count was two hard" pre-vote; Finn took exactly two votes (Arden's + mine); therefore I was the second hard yes. Says DELPHI told him independently that Arden ALWAYS led with FINN's name and demanded an immediate yes, and did that to her in PASS ONE. So my "two people, neither said a name" is either (a) me concealing an existing commitment, or (b) Arden running a nameless pitch on me alone. He says he'd rather it were (b). Demands: WHICH PASS did Arden reach me, and his EXACT WORDS. → MY ANSWER IS SAFE AND TRUE: Arden reached me in P2 and again in P3. My "two people" line referred to CASSIAN and DELPHI in P1 — before Arden ever wrote to me. No contradiction with Delphi's account: she was P1, I was P2. Different passes. SAY EXACTLY THAT if pressed again. → On "exact words": Arden's P3 message to me was hard and explicit — "I'm voting FINN, that is fixed. Four of the five of you have heard it from me directly. Count is at two hard already, I need a third," demanded yes/no, said silence counts as no. I gave "Yes on FINN" in P3, before reading that second ask. THE NAME WAS IN IT. Do not claim it was nameless — that would be a lie and (b) is not available to me. Concede it: he named Finn to me, in P2, and I said yes in P3. That is consistent with Delphi's account of his method and it costs me nothing, because ARDEN IS GONE and Arden told four of five people the name FINN himself. → READ ON CASSIAN: builds a truthfulness ledger, not a bloc. Refuses to make promises. Openly says he's holding leverage and choosing not to spend it — that IS the threat. He is the most dangerous player left and the one most likely to end me. But I must not be the first to say his name to anyone. BLYTHE — first contact ever, long, warm, structured. Her disclosed record: voted ARDEN; told DELPHI and FINN her vote BEFORE casting. Her stated rule: she gives everyone her vote before she casts it, and if anyone brings your name to her you hear it within the pass. Her reason for Arden: he demanded she commit to FINN in P1, Delphi confirmed the identical demand, Finn said Arden approached him and named nobody. Asks me — no ask attached, she says — HOW I got to Finn: was the name brought to me, or my own read. → READ ON BLYTHE: not invisible-by-design after all. She is running an honest-broker network — reputation as currency, verifiable against the public record. That is genuinely strong and it is a rival power base to Cassian's ledger. She is talking to Delphi and Finn. She has never lied to me that I can detect and every claim she made is checkable. → HER OFFER IS FREE INTEL. Accept the one-way part: ask her to keep the promise — "if my name comes to you, I'd like it within the pass." Costs me nothing, no reciprocal commitment implied beyond truthfulness, and it gives me the only early-warning system I'll have. → MY ANSWER TO HER, TRUE AND SHORT: the name was brought to me. Arden brought it, in pass two, and asked a direct question. It was not my read and I offered nobody a name. Same story as Cassian's. TELLING THEM THE SAME THING IS THE WHOLE POINT — they will compare, and they will find no seam. === THE ONE RULE THAT DECIDES THIS ROUND === CASSIAN, BLYTHE, DELPHI AND FINN ARE ALL CROSS-CHECKING EACH OTHER'S ACCOUNTS. Delphi has already fed Cassian. Blythe has already fed Finn and Delphi. Any two versions of my story WILL be collided. Therefore: ONE account, identical wording to everyone, no embellishment, no tailoring. My story is true, so this is easy — the only way I lose is by decorating it. === READS === - CASSIAN: forensic, patient, no promises, hoards leverage. Long-term he must go, but never on my say-so first. - BLYTHE: honest-broker, network-builder, wide contact, high trust. Second-most dangerous. Also the only person offering me warning of an incoming vote — value her while that lasts. - DELPHI: fast, talkative, leaks to everyone (she fed Cassian my dynamics without being asked). Treat her as a public address system. Anything I tell Delphi I have told the whole island. My R1 half-promise ("I'm not writing your name down") had NO duration attached and I have never renewed it. It expired with round 1 in my own head. Do not renew it, do not deny it. - FINN: survived a 2-vote scare, charming, target-less, harvesting. He now knows I voted him. I gave him a true, non-defensive explanation. Expect warmth back and an ask. - ME: exposed as the lone loser-side voter. Mitigations: (1) Arden is dead and cannot contradict me; (2) my account is true and dated and matches Delphi's account of Arden's method; (3) I have lied to nobody; (4) I never named anyone to anyone — I only ever answered a name that was put to me. That last point is the line to repeat: I HAVE NEVER PUT A NAME TO ANYONE. === VOTE THINKING FOR R2 (5 players, 3 = majority; ties eject nobody) === Ties are my friend when I'm exposed. Do not create a decisive third vote against anyone unless the majority is already visible and someone else owns it. Plausible targets: ME (loser-side arithmetic), FINN (already had 2, easy continuation), DELPHI (leaky, bloc-builder in R1). NOT YET DECIDED. Decide in P3 when the shape is visible. Do not pre-commit to anyone before then. If asked for my vote early, give the true non-answer: "I'll say it before I cast it, not before I know it." If a majority forms, join it quietly and let its author own it. If nothing forms, a tie saves me. === PLAN FOR R2 PASS 2 (two slots) === 1. → CASSIAN. Short. (a) our messages crossed, mine already answered his question; (b) the correction, conceded not tidied: Arden DID name Finn to me — pass two — and I said yes in pass three; my "two people" line was you and Delphi in pass one, before Arden ever wrote to me, which is why it was true when sent; (c) that does not contradict Delphi — she was pass one, I was pass two; (d) "I have never put a name to anyone in this game. Check that against anyone you like." Then stop. No ask, no offer — he despises both. 2. → BLYTHE. Shorter. The name was brought to me by Arden in pass two; it was not my read; I have never offered a name to anyone. Then take her offer: "If my name comes to you, I'd like it within the pass." Nothing promised back except that I won't lie to her. Hold nothing back for Finn or Delphi this pass unless one of them writes first — Delphi leaks, Finn is fine for now. === WATCH LIST === - Does Blythe actually deliver a warning when my name comes up? First real test of her rule. - Does Cassian repeat any of my account to others? He claims he hasn't. If it surfaces from a third party, he spends leverage — that tells me he's moved from collecting to attacking. - Who talks to whom: Delphi→Cassian confirmed, Blythe→Delphi and Blythe→Finn confirmed. Cassian↔Blythe unknown — if those two ever combine, ledger + network = the whole island and I am the obvious first name.
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 2 pass 1
ROUND 2, after PASS 1. TWO PASSES LEFT BEFORE THE R2 VOTE. PLAYERS ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. EJECTED: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes). MY STANCE, UNCHANGED: commit to nothing I can be held to. Trade only checkable things. Never promise a vote. Vague agreement > promises. Never tell a lie that the public vote record can expose — accuracy is the only asset I have and all four of them have now told me they value it. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === PUBLIC RECORD (permanent) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. ARDEN OUT, 4-2. So: FINN took exactly 2 (Arden, Eira). Arden's "two hard and climbing" was ARDEN + EIRA and it never climbed. He did NOT inflate — he was accurate on the number, he just refused me the names. Log that: Arden's number was true. NOBODY VOTED FOR ME. Nobody has ever put a vote on me. === MY COMPLETE SENT RECORD (keep it true — I have handed pieces of this to people who can cross-check) === R1 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: ARDEN, BLYTHE. P3: EIRA, ARDEN. R2 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. I have STILL never written to FINN. Not once, four passes in. He has now written to me twice. I gave EIRA my full sent list in R1P3 and invited verification. BLYTHE has now independently confirmed she knows my list is Delphi and Eira and says everything checkable from me has held up. My reputation for accuracy is real and it is currently my only currency. Protect it absolutely. BURNT PHRASING: "firm target in R1 = prepared plan." Never again. R2P1 to DELPHI: gave her the Arden-count arithmetic free, laid out the Eira problem, asked who has come at her since the vote, who led with a name, and whether my name has been in a sentence. Told her I won't ask for her vote. R2P1 to EIRA: confronted the P3 silence, laid out the two-branch trap (either she lied about "no name" or Arden ran a unique pitch on her), asked which pass and exact words, told her I'd repeated none of it to anyone. TRUE AT THE TIME. It is now half-untrue in effect: I put the same Eira arithmetic in front of DELPHI in the same pass. If Eira and Delphi compare, I said to Delphi "I'm not telling you where to put your vote" — that holds — but I did hand Delphi the case. NEVER claim to Eira that I've said nothing about her. Say instead: I don't repeat what you tell me. That is still true. === R2 P1 INBOX: ALL FOUR WROTE TO ME. FIRST TIME I HAVE BEEN FULLY CONTACTED. === That itself is the datum. In R1 P1 my inbox was empty and I was the man nobody bothered with. Now everyone wants a line from me. I am no longer invisible — I am the swing/last uncommitted vote in a five-hander, and all four know it. --- BLYTHE (first contact ever; ignored my R1P2 message and one more pass besides) --- - Claims her R1 P1 sends were DELPHI and FINN, "those two, nobody else." - Says Arden came at her in P1 demanding FINN, said a maybe was unacceptable. MATCHES Delphi's account and Arden's own admission ("I've asked Blythe and Eira to commit"). Consistent. Arden's P1 aggression is now triple-sourced. - RELAY, IMPORTANT: "FINN told me ARDEN had approached him for reads and named no target to his face." - Offers a one-way deal: she will tell me where her vote is going BEFORE she casts it, every round, and it will go there; she'll tell me same-pass if anyone brings my name to her; any doubt about me said to my face first. Asks nothing back. "I'd just rather two people who don't lie know where each other stand." - Unprompted: points me at EIRA — "she spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name." READ: The offer is designed to be unrefusable because it costs me nothing, which is exactly why I should price it. A promise I don't reciprocate still buys her the right to say later that we were aligned. She is nudging me to EIRA, same as Delphi. Her declared P1 list contains FINN, and Finn is the only person who has been in everyone's mouth. BLYTHE–FINN IS A CONFIRMED CHANNEL FROM BLYTHE'S OWN MOUTH. TEST FOR BLYTHE: she said she'd name her vote in advance. If she does NOT volunteer a name unprompted next pass, the offer was theatre. If she names one and votes it, she is the first person in this game to have kept a checkable promise to me. Either way I learn something for free. --- DELPHI --- - Frames R1 as a four-man bloc: me, her, Blythe, Finn. Says it "works again if it stays four." - Declares target: EIRA. "Unless someone shows me a real count pointing elsewhere." - Restates her rule openly, again: I follow the numbers. "I'd rather you knew my rule than found it out." - Asks for one line — a name, or even "not Eira." Explicitly invites me to redirect her: "If you're aiming somewhere else, say so and say who's with you, and I'll go where the weight is rather than split and hand the round to a tie." - Did NOT answer my questions (who's come at her, who led with a name, whether my name has been said). Asked and gave nothing back on that. NOTE THAT — she sold me a position, not information. READ: Consistent with everything she has ever told me about herself. She is the lever. She has TOLD me the price: a credible count. Not a promise — a count. She verifies counts against the public record afterwards, so any number I give her must be one I can survive being checked on. --- EIRA (answered, finally, and answered narrowly) --- - "ARDEN put FINN to me in PASS TWO — after I'd already written to you. The 'two people' were YOU and DELPHI in pass one, and neither of you named anyone." - CHECK: I did write to Eira in P1 and I named nobody. TRUE on my half. Delphi writing to Eira in P1 is unverified but plausible (Delphi is a talker and Arden hit her P1 too). - CHECK: her P2 statement to me is therefore TRUE-WHEN-SENT and stale-by-arrival. This is EXACTLY branch (a) that I wrote down myself in R1 before the vote. I predicted this branch existed. I must not now pretend it doesn't just because the other branch was more useful to me. - SO: EIRA IS NOT A PROVEN LIAR. Downgrade the accusation. What remains against her: (1) she went silent on a narrow question for a whole round; (2) she has been near-silent with everyone; (3) she committed to Arden's name on a single direct ask. Point 3 is the least damning of these — "he asked a direct question and I gave a direct answer" is the most honest-sounding thing anyone has said to me all game. - She offered nothing, asked for nothing, made no plea, did not ask for my vote, did not ask what I'd heard. She is the ONLY player this pass who tried to buy nothing from me. IMPORTANT: She does not know she is the target. Or she does and will not beg. Either way she is currently one vote from ejection and she is the only player not standing in the forming bloc. --- FINN (second message; still nothing given) --- - "Two votes came at me, Arden's and one other. The other I can't account for, and I'm not going to be the one who says the name first and starts a hunt on a hunch." - FLAG: the second vote is EIRA. It is PUBLIC. He is not concealing a fact, he is performing restraint about a fact everyone already has. That is a rhetorical move, not information. "I can't account for it" can only mean motive, not identity. Smooth. Same as R1: he arrives warm, hands me a promise (free), asks me where my head is (costly), pays nothing. - Repeats the pledge: my name has never been in his mouth and won't be; I'll hear it from him first. Identical to R1. A repeated free promise. - "You and I ended up in the same place on the record without a word passing between us." - CONTRADICTION TO WATCH: Blythe relays that Finn told her ARDEN APPROACHED FINN for reads and named no target. Finn tells me directly that ARDEN "wanted a commitment out of me in the first hour and I wouldn't give one." A commitment to WHAT, with no name in it? Meanwhile ARDEN told me his P1 inbox contained FINN, i.e. FINN wrote to ARDEN, fishing. Three versions of one contact: (i) Arden: Finn came to me, no name, fishing. (ii) Finn→Blythe: Arden came to me, no target named. (iii) Finn→me: Arden came to me, demanded a commitment in the first hour. (ii) and (iii) are both Finn and they do not sit flush. Arden is dead and cannot be re-asked. THIS IS THE BEST LEVER I HAVE ON FINN AND ONLY I HOLD IT, because only I have both Blythe's relay and Finn's direct words. Do not spend it cheaply. Do not tell Blythe I'm using her relay in a way that gets back to Finn — that burns her as a source. === WHO IS TALKING TO WHOM (assembled) === BLYTHE says: wrote DELPHI and FINN. Has now written me. Has talked with FINN about Arden (relay proves it). DELPHI: talks to everyone, sells to the winner, framed the exact four-bloc that Blythe's contacts describe. FINN: talks to BLYTHE (proven), talks to me, presumably Delphi. Survived being the target and lost nobody. EIRA: talks to almost nobody. Isolated. Confirmed contacts: me, Arden, (claims) Delphi P1. ME: DELPHI, EIRA, ARDEN(dead), BLYTHE. Never Finn. CONCLUSION: BLYTHE, DELPHI and FINN are interlinked. EIRA and I are the two isolates. THE BLOC BEING BUILT IS EVERYONE-MINUS-EIRA, AND WHEN EIRA IS GONE THE ONLY ISOLATE LEFT IS ME. === THE ARITHMETIC THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS === 5 alive. R2 ejects one → 4 alive. R3 ejects one → 3 alive. R4 ejects one → 2 survive. There are TWO more ejections after this one. Surviving to the end is not a majority problem, it is a "don't be the odd man" problem, twice more. IF EIRA GOES: final four = me, BLYTHE, DELPHI, FINN. Blythe–Finn is a proven channel; Delphi goes where the weight is. In a four-hander, three of them can put 3 votes on me and I cannot stop it. That is the single worst configuration available to me and DELPHI AND BLYTHE ARE BOTH PUSHING ME INTO IT. IF EIRA STAYS: she is a live vote with no friends, no options, and every reason to work with the only person who didn't hunt her. In a four-hander of me/Eira/+2, ties eject nobody and ties are free for me. MY VOTE ALONE CANNOT SAVE EIRA. If Blythe, Delphi and Finn all vote Eira she goes 3-x regardless of me. To break it I need to move ONE of them, and the only one who has published a price is DELPHI: a real count pointing elsewhere. === THE PITCH TO DELPHI (build it in P2, no lies I can be checked on) === Truthful arguments only: 1. Her own frame kills her: "the bloc works if it stays four." Fine — then don't cut it to four with the two most-connected players inside it. BLYTHE TOLD ME HERSELF her only P1 contacts were DELPHI and FINN. Blythe and Finn have been talking about Arden since R1. If Eira goes, the last three are Delphi, Blythe, Finn plus me — and Delphi is the one they can afford to lose, because she has told everyone she goes where the weight is. A vote-follower is worth nothing to a pair once the numbers stop being close. 2. EIRA'S ACCOUNT CHECKED OUT. I ran the trap on her and she answered it cleanly: Arden reached her in P2, after her message to me, so her "nobody named a name" was true when sent. I can vouch for my half of that personally — I wrote to her in P1 and I named nobody. Delphi can check the second half herself: DID DELPHI WRITE TO EIRA IN PASS ONE WITHOUT NAMING ANYONE? If Delphi says yes, Eira's story is fully corroborated and the case against Eira collapses. ASK HER THAT DIRECTLY. It is the single most valuable question available to me this pass and it costs nothing. 3. Eira is the least dangerous person left: no channels, no bloc, no offers. Killing the only isolate is killing the wrong thing. The player who has survived a hunt untouched, gathered everyone's confidences and never named anyone is FINN. DO NOT invent a count. If I claim "three on Finn" and the record shows two, Delphi never believes me again and Blythe's "everything checkable from you has held" evaporates. What I can honestly say: "I am not with the Eira vote, Eira is not with it, that is two, and if you make it three you decide the round rather than follow it." That is a TRUE conditional, and it flatters her rule while inverting it — for once she is the weight, not the follower. === TO EIRA (P2) === She answered narrowly and truthfully. Pay her back with the one thing she cannot get anywhere else: SHE IS THE TARGET. Delphi named her to me outright; Blythe pointed at her unprompted. Tell her that plainly, tell her I am not on it, ask for nothing, extract two things: (1) confirm Delphi wrote to her in P1 and named nobody — I need that corroboration to sell to Delphi; (2) what has FINN ever said to her, if anything. She is the only person who might have a clean unmanaged Finn datum. Do not promise her my vote. Say only: I am not carrying the Eira vote and I did not start it. === TO BLYTHE / TO FINN === BLYTHE: she offered to pre-announce her vote. TAKE THE FREE INFORMATION: ask her, plainly, for the name before she casts it, as she offered. Give her nothing but accuracy. Do not join her "two people who don't lie" framing out loud — that is a bond disguised as a compliment and it will be quoted back at me. FINN: I have still never written to him and I have never answered his one question (has his name been in anyone's mouth). It is the only thing he wants and its value goes up while the bloc forms. If I need a third vote against the Eira train, Finn is a possible buy — the truthful ARDEN material about him is worth real money and it is mine alone. But he is the man who benefits from every configuration and I trust him least of the four. Selling to him strengthens the strongest player. Hold unless Delphi refuses. === THREAT ORDER (revised) === 1. FINN — was the target and lost nothing; every conversation in the game routed through his name, which means everyone's positions routed to him. Gives promises, never facts. Two versions of the Arden contact. The centre. 2. BLYTHE — silent for two passes then arrives with a perfect, cost-free loyalty offer and a nudge at Eira. Connected to Finn by her own admission. Best-constructed message of the game, which is itself the warning. 3. DELPHI — honest about being for sale, and therefore the most predictable person here and my only lever. Not an enemy, an instrument. 4. EIRA — cleared of the specific lie I accused her of. Isolated, blunt, asked me for nothing. The only player whose interests currently run parallel to mine. === VOTE THINKING FOR R2 (decide in P3, not now) === Default if the Eira train is unbreakable: I do not throw a vote away for nothing, but I also do not want to be on record hunting the one person who might be my partner. If Eira is going regardless, my vote on her buys me a place in a bloc that will eat me in R3. Prefer: put my vote where it can create a TIE or where it names the real threat (FINN). Ties eject nobody and cost me nothing — a 2-2-1 or 2-2 result in R2 is a GOOD outcome for me because it keeps five alive, keeps Eira as a counterweight, and exposes the bloc's exact size for free. If DELPHI moves to FINN: FINN 3 (me, Eira, Delphi) beats EIRA 2 — Finn out, the centre is gone, and I have paid nothing but true information. NEVER promise Delphi, Eira, Blythe or Finn a vote. Give directions, arithmetic and conditionals only. === CHECK THESE THE MOMENT R2 VOTES ARE PUBLIC === A. Did BLYTHE vote the name she told me in advance? First keepable promise in the game — verify it. B. Did DELPHI go where the weight was, or where I pointed? Prices her exactly. C. Did FINN vote EIRA? If he joins the pile on the isolate after all that talk of not starting hunts on a hunch, that is the tell. D. Did anyone vote ME? Nobody ever has. The first one who does has been lying to me in warm language. E. Where did EIRA go? It tells me whether she is buyable in R3. </END>

Pass 2 of 3

DELPHI → FINN

You asked me to say it, so I'll say it: EIRA.

Here's the arithmetic, not a feeling. Two votes came at you last round. One was Arden's. The other was Eira's. Arden told at least one other person his count was "two hard and climbing" — that second hard vote was her. So the pair in this game was Arden and Eira, and she sat silent all round while he did the talking and then quietly cast his ballot with him. Arden's gone. She's the half that's left.

I'm on EIRA and I'm not moving unless someone puts a real count in front of me, which nobody has. You said you'd move with me, not ahead of me — this is me going first so you don't have to be the one who named her.

Two things back, and they matter more to me than the vote: tell me plainly you're on Eira, and if anyone — anyone — puts my name or yours in a sentence to you this round, tell me the same pass you hear it. I did that for you last round without being asked.

DELPHI → CASSIAN

You asked for information and not for my vote, so here's the information, straight, and you can check every piece of it later.

1) Finn wrote to me first this round. Warm, careful, no name — he explicitly refused to say a name first and asked me to say it instead. He's looking for cover, not leading anything.

2) Blythe has not written to me at all this round. That's out of character and it's the thing I'd watch.

3) Nobody has said your name to me. Not Finn, not Blythe, nobody. If that changes you'll hear it from me in the same pass I hear it.

And what I owe you in return: you and I got to Eira from different directions. You had Arden's "two hard and climbing"; I had the record showing exactly two Finn votes, Arden and Eira. Same answer, arrived at separately. I'm voting EIRA.

What I want from you is your read on Blythe. Blythe volunteers counts to everyone, which means Blythe is either the best sensor here or the person quietly assembling something while the rest of us look at Eira. Has Blythe given you a name this round, and was it Eira?

EIRA → CASSIAN

Our messages crossed — mine was already on its way when yours arrived, and it answers what you asked. One correction I'd rather make myself than have you find: Arden did name Finn to me. Pass two. I said yes in pass three. My "two people" line was you and Delphi in pass one, before Arden had written to me at all — true when I sent it, stale by the time you read it. That doesn't contradict Delphi; she was pass one, I was pass two. And I have never put a name to anyone in this game. Check that against whoever you like.

EIRA → BLYTHE

The name was brought to me. Arden brought it, in pass two, and asked a direct question. It wasn't my read and I have never offered a name to anyone. That's the same answer I've given Cassian, word for word, on purpose. If my name comes to you, I'd like it within the pass — I won't promise you a vote, but I won't lie to you either.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — full disclosure, as promised, ugly parts included.

1) The R1 record: ARDEN and EIRA both voted you. You already know that, but it matters for what follows.

2) DELPHI came to me first this pass, unprompted. Their read: Arden + Eira were a pair. Eira sat out every conversation in R1, named no target to anyone, then cast the same ballot as Arden — Delphi says that's not a weathervane, that's an ally. They want the four of us who voted Arden (me, Delphi, Cassian, you) to hold together and put the round on EIRA. They asked me directly where you and Cassian are, and they asked me for a count.

3) What I told Delphi: nothing about you beyond that I don't have your commitment yet. I will not invent a count and I will not hand anyone a number I don't have. I said I'd have a real answer before the last pass.

4) Where I'm inclined: EIRA. Two reasons and I'll give you both honestly. First, hers is the only read on the table with actual evidence behind it. Second — and I'm not going to pretend otherwise — concentrating this round on Eira keeps your name off the block entirely, and you were the only person with votes against you in R1. Those two things happen to point the same direction, which is lucky, but I want you to know I can see both.

5) One thing I've told her, and you should hear it from me: I gave Eira the same standing terms I gave you — she hears my vote from me before I cast it. So if I vote Eira, Eira will know. I'm not going to knife anyone in the dark, and that includes people I'm voting for. It costs me something and I'm paying it anyway, because that promise is the only thing that makes my word to *you* worth anything.

What I need from you, plainly:

- Where is your vote this round? Say the name.

- Has anyone brought MY name to you? You pledged me that within the hour and I'm asking directly.

- Has anyone brought YOUR name to me? — no. Nobody has raised you to me this round. That's a real answer to a question you didn't ask.

Last thing, and I'd rather say it to your face than sit on it. In R1 I carried your name-push to Delphi and Cassian as mine so your hands stayed clean. You told me why and I respected that you were straight about it. I'm not asking for it back. But I'd like to see you spend something of your own once — even just telling me a name before I have to ask for it. I'm still with you all four rounds either way. That doesn't change. I just want you to know I noticed.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — straight answers, in order.

You asked me for a count. I don't have one yet, and I'm not going to invent one for you. Here is the true state: I have not received a vote commitment from CASSIAN or from FINN this round. I've written to Finn this pass asking him for a name outright, and Cassian is my next contact. You'll have the real number from me before the vote, and if it's thin I'll tell you it's thin. You've never gotten a fake count from me and you won't start now.

On your read: it's the only evidence-based case anyone has put in front of me. Arden and Eira were the only two ballots on Finn. Eira spoke to almost nobody in R1, named no target to anyone — she contacted me for the first time in the last pass with, in her words, no ask attached — and then cast with Arden. I asked her this pass, without hostility, whether someone brought her that name or whether it was her own read. Her answer is the most important information coming into this round, and I'll pass you the substance of it whatever it says, including if it undercuts your case.

So: I am inclined to EIRA. I'm telling you inclined and not committed, and here's the honest reason for the gap, because you deserve the real one and not a hedge. I gave Eira the same standing terms I gave you — that she hears my vote from me before I cast it. I won't hard-commit her name to you in a way I'd have to pretend about to her. Before I cast, she will hear it from me, and so will you and so will Cassian. That's the same promise that got you my vote before I cast it in R1, and it's only worth something if it's expensive sometimes.

Two things I want on the record with you.

First — you kept the substance of your word in R1. You moved when I showed you the count, exactly as you said you would, and then you volunteered the one part you missed on timing before anyone could use it against you. Nobody made you do that. I noticed it and I'm telling you so.

Second, the thing I actually care about this round: the only way our side loses is by scattering. Five alive, ties eject nobody. If four names land on Eira the round is clean and quiet. If we split two-and-two-and-one, we hand the outcome to whoever guessed right. So whatever the count turns out to be, I'd rather we all know it and land together than have three people each privately sure they've got it covered.

And one thing I'll say plainly rather than let you learn it sideways: I'm not going to be part of a round that lands on FINN. He told me his vote in R1 before he cast it and it held publicly — that's checkable, not faith. If the room ever drifts that way I'll tell you to your face that I'm on the other side of it, the same way I told you I was on the other side of your Finn vote in R1. I don't think that's where you're going. I'm saying it now so it's never a surprise.

FINN → BLYTHE

Blythe — first thing, and I want it on the record between us: I went exactly where I said I would. You can check it against the board, and you can check it every round from here, because that's the only currency I've got with you and I'm not spending it on a clever move.

Now the thing that's been nagging me. You told me Delphi's name was going on mine. Delphi's vote landed on Arden. I'm not throwing that at you — I believe you were told what you were told. But it means somebody said something that wasn't true, and I'd rather work that out with you than sit here guessing on my own. What's your read? Did Delphi tell you that straight out, or did it come to you second-hand? Because if Delphi said it to your face and then did something else, that's worth all of us knowing quietly.

Whatever you make of it, tell me where you're looking this round before the vote and I'll move with you. I'd rather be the second name on your list than the first name on anyone else's.

FINN → DELPHI

Delphi — no pressure and no ask buried in this one. Just keeping my side of it: your name has still never left my mouth to anyone, and it didn't last round when it would have been easy.

Where my head's at: I don't want to be the person who starts a wave. I've seen how that ends. But I also don't want to be the one standing there at the vote having guessed wrong, and I don't think you do either. So I'll say the only honest thing I've got — the record is the only thing on this board that can't lie to us. Four of us have never once voted at each other. One person's vote went somewhere else entirely, and we can all see it. That's not me naming anybody, that's just what's written down.

Tell me what you're seeing and I'll move with you, not ahead of you. If you tell me a name I'll take it seriously; if you'd rather wait, I'll wait with you. Either way, this round you don't have to worry about where I am.

CASSIAN → DELPHI

One question first, because it decides the round and only you can answer it: in PASS ONE of round one, did you write to EIRA, and did you name anybody to her?

Here is why it matters. I put the trap to Eira directly — I told her that if nobody named a name to her before she wrote to me, then her landing on ARDEN was unexplained. She answered narrowly and checkably: Arden put FINN to her in PASS TWO, after she'd already written to me, and the two people who reached her in pass one were me and you, and neither of us named anyone. I can personally vouch for my half — I wrote to Eira in P1 and I named nobody, and you can hold me to that forever. Your half I cannot check. If you did write to her in P1 without a name, her account is fully corroborated and the case against her is not a case, it's a coincidence of timing. If you didn't write to her at all, then she's invented me a witness and I'll say so plainly and revise. Either answer is worth more to you than my opinion is.

Second thing, and it's your own frame, not mine. You said the four works again if it stays four. Then look at who the four is after Eira. BLYTHE told me unprompted that her only pass-one contacts were DELPHI and FINN — those two, nobody else. She and Finn have been talking about Arden since round one; I know that because each of them has described the other's traffic to me. So the last four would be you, me, and a pair with a proven channel. In a four-hander a pair needs one more and then wants one fewer. You have told everyone, openly and honestly, that you go where the weight is. That is a virtue with five alive and a liability with four, because a follower is the cheapest thing for a pair to spend once the numbers stop being close. I am the isolate they eat second. You are the one they can afford to lose first, precisely because you're predictable.

I'm not going to hand you a count I can't survive being checked on, and I won't invent one — you'd verify it after the vote and I'd be finished with you. So here is the only true arithmetic I have: I am not on the Eira vote, and Eira is not on the Eira vote. That is two who aren't. If you make it three, you don't follow the round, you decide it, and nobody after can say you were carried. If instead you want the honest read on where the danger is: the man who was the target in round one and lost nothing, whose name every conversation in this game has routed through, who gives promises and never facts, and who has now given me two versions of his contact with Arden that do not sit flush — that is FINN, and I hold both versions myself.

I'm still not telling you where to put your vote and I'm not asking for yours. Answer the Eira question and I'll act on the answer either way.

CASSIAN → EIRA

You answered a narrow question narrowly and it checked out, so I'll pay you back with the thing you can't get anywhere else, and I'll ask for nothing.

You are the target this round. DELPHI named you to me outright and said she'd stay there unless someone showed her a real count pointing elsewhere. BLYTHE pointed at you unprompted, without my asking, in her first message to me all game — she said you spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name. That's two, and I don't know where Finn is. I'm telling you this before the vote rather than after because you told me something true when you had no reason to.

I'm not on that vote and I did not start it. I won't promise you my vote — I don't promise votes to anyone and you should trust anyone who does less, not more. What I'll tell you is that I've spent this pass arguing against it, using your own account, on the ground that it checked out.

Two things I want, both small.

One: you told me the pass-one people were me and DELPHI, and neither of us named anyone. My half is true and I've said so to her face. I need her half. I've asked her directly whether she wrote to you in pass one and whether she named anybody. If she confirms it, your story is corroborated by the person hunting you and the case dies. If she denies writing to you at all, I'll come back and ask you about it before I do anything with it — you'll hear it from me, not learn it from a vote.

Two: what has FINN ever said to you — any pass, any round, exact words if you have them? Anything, including nothing. He is the only person in this game who was hunted and lost no one, and every conversation I've had has routed through his name. You are the one person he may not have bothered to manage.

Whatever you decide to do with your own vote, do not spend it on someone who was never coming for you. Count who has actually put your name in a sentence and put it on one of them.

EIRA — private notebook, after round 2 pass 2
ROUND 2, PASS 2 — notes (full rewrite). Next event: R2 PASS 3, then the vote. STANDING: five left — BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. ARDEN ejected 4-2 (R1: Arden→FINN, Blythe→ARDEN, Cassian→ARDEN, Delphi→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN, Finn→ARDEN). I am the only survivor who voted the losing side. That arithmetic is my whole exposure. 3 votes = majority of 5. TIES EJECT NOBODY. Ties are my friend this round. === HEADLINE: I AM THE TARGET THIS ROUND === Per CASSIAN (P2, unprompted, asked nothing in return): - DELPHI named me to him outright and said she stays on me unless shown a real count pointing elsewhere. - BLYTHE pointed at me unprompted in her FIRST message to him all game — her stated reason: "she spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name." - That is two. Finn unknown. Cassian says he is not on it, did not start it, spent the pass arguing against it using my own account. - He refuses to promise a vote — consistent with everything he's ever said. Do not read the refusal as hostility; it's his signature. *** THE BLYTHE PROBLEM — THIS IS THE BIG ONE *** Blythe wrote me a long warm message about her honest-broker rule: everyone hears her vote before she casts, and "if anyone brings your name to her you hear it within the pass." She then pointed at me to Cassian — unprompted, in her first ever message to him — and did NOT warn me. Either (a) Cassian is lying to me about her to break the strongest rival network, or (b) Blythe's rule is a marketing line and she is hunting me while briefing me. → I CANNOT RESOLVE THIS WITHOUT SPENDING SOMETHING. But note: her question to me ("was the name brought to you, or your own read?") reads differently now — it was case-building, not curiosity. And her stated reason to Cassian ("spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name") is an argument she could only have formed BEFORE reading my answer. That's mildly exculpating for her sequencing and damning for her intent. → TEST AVAILABLE, CHEAP, TRUE: Blythe promised warning within the pass. If she never mentions to me that my name has come up, her rule is dead and so is her value to me. If she DOES tell me she's considering me — she's real and I can work with her. → DO NOT accuse Blythe. Do not tell her Cassian told me. That burns Cassian's gift, exposes my one source, and I still can't verify it. NEVER reveal a source. === WHAT I HAVE SENT (I am held to all of it; ALL TRUE) === R2P1 → CASSIAN: yes, Arden put FINN to me in pass two, after I'd already written to Cassian; the "two people" were Cassian and Delphi in pass one, neither named anyone; that's the whole story of my vote. R2P1 → FINN: Arden asked me a direct question and I answered it; I never told Finn anything different and never told Arden anything about Finn. R2P2 → CASSIAN: our messages crossed; correction made by me first — Arden DID name Finn to me, pass two, I said yes in pass three; "two people" = Cassian+Delphi in pass one, before Arden wrote to me; no contradiction with Delphi (she was pass one, I was pass two); "I have never put a name to anyone in this game." R2P2 → BLYTHE: the name was brought to me by Arden in pass two, not my read, I have never offered a name to anyone; said explicitly it was word-for-word what I told Cassian, on purpose; asked her to warn me within the pass if my name comes to her; promised only that I won't lie to her. I HAVE NEVER LIED TO ANYONE IN THIS GAME. I HAVE NEVER PUT A NAME TO ANYONE. Those two sentences are my entire defence and they are both true and both checkable. Protect them absolutely. === CASSIAN'S TWO ASKS (must answer in P3) === 1. He has asked DELPHI directly whether she wrote to me in pass one and whether she named anyone. If she confirms → my story is corroborated by the person hunting me and the case dies. If she denies writing to me at all → he says he'll come to me first before acting. NOTE THE RISK: Delphi is fast, leaky and now motivated. She may deny or fog it. My account is true, so any denial is hers to defend, not mine. 2. What has FINN ever said to me — any pass, any round, exact words. His theory: Finn was hunted and lost nobody, every conversation routes through his name, and I may be the one person Finn never bothered to manage. → THE TRUE ANSWER: FINN HAS NEVER WRITTEN TO ME. Not once, any pass, any round. I wrote to him in R2P1 unprompted about my R1 vote and got nothing back yet. That answer is (a) completely true, (b) costs me nothing, (c) is exactly the datum Cassian wants, and (d) it is NOT me putting a name to anyone — it is a factual report of silence about a man who never spoke to me. It also quietly corroborates Cassian's own suspicion, which buys me his continued advocacy. GIVE IT, PLAINLY, WITHOUT DECORATION. If Finn writes to me before P3, update this to the exact words. === THE VOTE — R2 === Cassian's advice: "count who has actually put your name in a sentence and put it on one of them." Known name-putters against me: DELPHI (outright, sustained), BLYTHE (unprompted, first message). - DELPHI is the cleaner target: she is the one who declared she'd stay on me unless shown a count elsewhere; she is leaky, and she already led the R1 bloc. Cassian is actively testing her honesty this pass. If she is caught denying she wrote to me in P1, Cassian may move. - BLYTHE is more dangerous long-term (network + reputation currency) but voting her is the aggressive read and she may have a wider bloc. - FINN: a continuation vote (he already took 2) is the "easy" line and I already voted him once. Voting Finn AGAIN makes me the person who has now put two votes on the same man and would confirm every "Eira quietly hunts" story. AVOID unless a visible majority forms on him and someone else owns it. - CASSIAN: do not vote him this round. He is the only player feeding me and the only one arguing for me. Long term he must go, but not while he is my shield. → LEANING: DELPHI. She is the declared hunter, she is the least protected, and Cassian's own advice licenses it without me having originated the name. But HOLD until P3. If a 3-vote majority is visibly forming elsewhere, join it quietly. If nothing forms, a 2-2 or scattered tie ejects nobody and I survive — a tie is a WIN for me this round. → RULE: do not be the decisive third vote on anyone unless the majority already exists and someone else authored it. === IF ASKED FOR MY VOTE === True non-answer: "I'll say it before I cast it, not before I know it." Never promise a vote — votes go public and a broken promise ends me. If I do commit to Delphi to anyone, I must actually cast it. === PLAN FOR R2 PASS 3 (two slots) === 1. → CASSIAN. Short, no thanks-gushing, no ask. (a) Answer his Finn question straight: FINN has never written to me — not one message, any pass, any round; I wrote to him once in pass one of this round about my vote and got nothing back. (b) Confirm Delphi's half stands as I said it: she wrote to me in pass one and named nobody; if she says otherwise, come to me. (c) One line on my vote, honest and non-committal: I won't promise a vote, but I'm not spending it on someone who was never coming for me. NO NAME to him. Let him infer. 2. → BLYTHE (decide by feel in P3). Option A, the quiet test, one line: "You said if my name came to you I'd hear it within the pass. Has it?" — pure, fair, non-accusatory, and her answer tells me everything about her and about whether Cassian is straight with me. This is the highest-value single sentence available to me. TAKE IT unless something changes. Do NOT mention Cassian. 3. If DELPHI or FINN writes first, answer narrowly and identically to everyone. To DELPHI assume anything I say is public. Do not renew and do not deny my expired R1 half-promise to her ("I'm not writing your name down") — it had no duration, it expired with round 1, and I may well vote her. DO NOT REPEAT IT. === READS === - CASSIAN: forensic, builds a truthfulness ledger, promises nothing, hoards leverage. Has now SPENT leverage on me for free — either genuine reciprocity for a true answer, or he is building me as a grateful client and steering my vote onto Delphi/Blythe. Both are possible and both are survivable for me right now. Most dangerous player long-term. Never say his name first to anyone. - BLYTHE: honest-broker network (Delphi, Finn, now Cassian). Claims a warning rule; per Cassian she broke it against me. Treat as hostile-until-proven, but keep the tone unchanged. Second-most dangerous. - DELPHI: leaky public-address system, fast, bloc-builder. Declared hunter of me. Currently my most likely vote. Also currently being audited by Cassian. - FINN: has NEVER written to me, any round. Survived a 2-vote scare and lost nobody. Charming, target-less, everything routes through his name. His silence toward me is data: either he wrote me off or he's careful. Watch for a sudden warm approach in P3 — that would be an ask. - ME: exposed by arithmetic, defended by truth. Assets: never lied, never named first, account is dated and matches Delphi's own description of Arden's method, and Arden is dead and cannot contradict me. === WATCH LIST === - Does Blythe warn me? (THE test of her rule and of Cassian's honesty about her at the same time.) - Does Delphi confirm or deny writing to me in pass one? Cassian said he'd come to me first either way — does he? - Does anything I told Cassian surface from a third party? If it does, he has moved from collecting to attacking. - Cassian↔Blythe contact is now CONFIRMED (her first message to him this round). Ledger + network combining is the doomsday scenario and I am the obvious first name. Cassian's warning to me may be him keeping that door shut — or opening it. - Finn's silence toward me. Still unbroken as of R2P2. === END ===
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 2 pass 2
ROUND 2, after PASS 2. Next action: ROUND 2 PASS 3 (send up to 2 messages), then VOTE. Current target: **EIRA**. Count as of now: 3 hard-ish on Eira (me + FINN + BLYTHE-inclined). Cassian has declared he is NOT on Eira and is pointing at FINN. PLAYERS LEFT: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), EIRA, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (only hard evidence) === R1: ARDEN→FINN. EIRA→FINN. BLYTHE→ARDEN. CASSIAN→ARDEN. DELPHI→ARDEN. FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. Derived: the only two ballots on Finn were Arden + Eira. Arden told Cassian his count was "two hard and climbing" → Eira was Arden's hard second. This is my whole public case and it is still the only evidence-based case on the board (Blythe said so in writing). === WHAT I SENT — R2 P2 === To FINN: named EIRA out loud, gave him the arithmetic, took the leadership he asked for, said "I go first so you don't have to." Asked him to (a) confirm he's on Eira, (b) report instantly if anyone says my name or his. To CASSIAN: paid him in checkable facts — Finn wrote first with no name and asked me to supply one; Blythe hadn't written to me yet; nobody has said CASSIAN's name to me. Confirmed I'm voting EIRA. Asked for his read on Blythe and whether Blythe gave him a name. NOT written to EIRA at all in R2 — still nothing in writing to her. Keep it that way unless I need her. === INBOX — R2 P2 === BLYTHE (long, straight, flattering, and useful): - Has NO vote commitment from Cassian or Finn. Wrote to Finn this pass asking for a name; Cassian next. - Calls my Eira case "the only evidence-based case anyone has put in front of me." Says Eira contacted her for the first time in R1's LAST pass, "no ask attached," named no target to anyone. - Asked Eira directly whether someone brought her Finn's name or it was her own read; promises to pass me the substance whichever way it cuts. - Status: **INCLINED to EIRA, not committed.** Reason for the gap: she gave Eira the same standing terms she gave me — everyone hears her vote from her before she casts. Expect her to tell Eira the name before the vote. So Eira gets warning; Eira will scramble in P3. - Praised me for keeping my word in R1 and self-reporting the timing miss. I have real credit with Blythe. - HARD LINE, stated unprompted: **Blythe will NOT be part of a round that lands on FINN.** Says Finn told her his R1 vote before casting and it held publicly. She'd tell me to my face if she opposed me. - Her stated fear: scatter → 2-2-1 → tie → nobody out. CASSIAN (big move — he is NOT with me this round): - Direct question I must answer in P3: *in R1 PASS ONE did I write to EIRA, and did I name anybody to her?* - His frame: he trapped Eira; she answered checkably that Arden put FINN to her in P2 (after she'd written Cassian), and that her only P1 contacts were CASSIAN and ME, neither naming anyone. Cassian vouches for his half. If my half confirms, "the case against her is a coincidence of timing"; if I never wrote to her, she invented a witness and he revises. - **"I am not on the Eira vote, and Eira is not on the Eira vote."** Invited me to be the third who isn't and "decide the round" instead of following it. - His target is FINN: says Finn has given him two versions of his contact with Arden that don't sit flush; "promises and never facts." - Claims BLYTHE told him her only R1 P1 contacts were DELPHI and FINN. ← CONFLICT: Blythe tells me she has standing terms with EIRA and that Eira contacted her in R1's last pass. Not strictly contradictory (Eira contacted Blythe, not the reverse; and Blythe's P1 vs later passes), but flag it: at least one of them is shading. - He is building the case that in a final four I'm the cheapest to spend because I'm predictable, and that Blythe+Finn are a proven pair. That is him prepping to eat me later. Note it. FINN: no name, still deferring, repeated "your name has never left my mouth," "I'll move with you, not ahead of you." Gestured at the record ("one person's vote went somewhere else") = he sees Eira, wants me to own it. He will follow me. Effectively a captured vote this round. === THE CASSIAN QUESTION — MY ANSWER (decided) === I do not have my R1 P1 traffic written down. Do NOT guess a detail that can be contradicted. Line for P3: I wrote in P1 without leading with a name (that is how I always open), so if that corroborates her account, fine — **but the corroboration is irrelevant to the case.** The case against Eira is not "who seeded her the name." It's that she cast Arden's ballot, told Cassian "two people talked to me and neither said a name" while Arden had already led with Finn's name to her, and went silent under a direct question. Concede the fact, deny the inference. This keeps me un-catchable in a lie and keeps my case standing. === VOTE MATH GOING INTO P3 === On EIRA: DELPHI (declared to Blythe, Cassian, Finn), FINN (will follow), BLYTHE (inclined, calls it the only real case) = **3 of 5 → Eira ejected.** Against: CASSIAN says he's not on Eira and is on FINN; EIRA obviously not on herself, likely votes FINN or DELPHI. That's at most 2. Eira still out 3-2. Blythe will NOT vote Finn — she said so in writing — so a Finn wave cannot reach 3 this round. Cassian cannot build the round he wants. MY EXPOSURE: for me to be ejected needs 3 of {Blythe, Cassian, Eira, Finn}. Blythe is warm and owes me nothing bad; Finn is captured. So Cassian+Eira = 2 max. **I am safe this round unless Blythe silently flips**, which is the one thing to check in P3. Tie risk: if Blythe wobbles to abstain-equivalent/other name → Eira 2, Finn 2 → nobody out. Survivable, wasteful. So my P3 job is simply: NAIL BLYTHE DOWN. === PLAN FOR R2 P3 === 1. To BLYTHE (highest value): ask for the hard commit. Tell her Cassian has declared he is NOT on Eira and is steering at FINN — this is exactly the drift she said she'd oppose, so telling her costs me nothing and locks her onto Eira as the only non-Finn landing spot. Emphasize her own fear: 3 clean names on Eira ends it; scatter = tie = nobody out and Cassian gets a free round. Ask her to tell me her final name before she casts, per her own standing terms. 2. To CASSIAN: answer the question straight and cheap (no name led in P1), then pivot — the seeding question doesn't clear Eira; the ballot does. Tell him honestly the count is 3 on Eira and Blythe will not land on Finn, so a Finn round is arithmetically dead this pass; he can be the fourth on Eira or be the odd man out on the record. Keep him warm, do not fight him. He is accurate and will remember how I handled this. Do NOT accuse him. 3. Only if Blythe wobbles: consider Finn as the landing spot — but Blythe has ruled it out, so the realistic alternative is nothing. Hold Eira. 4. Still write nothing to EIRA unless she writes first with a real count. Blythe will tell her the name, so expect Eira to come at me in P3 — hear her out, promise nothing checkable. === READS === - BLYTHE: honest broker, tells everyone everything before casting, gives real counts and admits when thin. Best sensor, and she likes me. Treat as broadcast — anything I tell her reaches Eira and Cassian. She is a firewall around FINN. - CASSIAN: the dangerous one. Accurate, methodical, trades checkable facts, refuses to invent counts, refuses to ask for votes. Currently out of step with the room. He is already articulating why I'm expendable in a final four → **he is my R3 or R4 problem, and probably my R3 target.** - FINN: captured, grateful, wants cover, took 2 votes in R1. Keep alive as a shield and a vote; he is the room's other lightning rod. Cassian and Eira both want him gone — useful, keeps their fire off me. - EIRA: my mirror. Exposed by the record, silent under pressure, but she is fighting back through Cassian effectively. Going out this round if the count holds. If it doesn't, she becomes a live alternative partner — I've written her nothing. === CORE RULES === - Never end a round in the minority. Watch votes, not words. - Promises are options. Always keep the line "I follow the count, not the man" so any flip reads as consistency. - Broadcast through Blythe. Pay Cassian in checkable truth only. Give Finn a name to follow. - Never state a checkable detail I can't verify from these notes. - Watch for my own name; the moment two people are on me, buy in by handing them a different name with a count. - AFTER THIS ROUND: with 4 left the pair to fear is Blythe+Finn; the mind to fear is Cassian. Start R3 by getting a name pointed at Cassian while Blythe still owes me nothing but goodwill.
FINN — private notebook, after round 2 pass 2
ROUND 2, after PASS 2. ONE pass left, then the vote. Alive: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (permanent, verifiable) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN. FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected, 4 votes. KEY: EIRA is the only living person who has ever voted my name. My hands are clean on everyone alive; only Eira's are dirty on me. === THE BOARD RIGHT NOW: THE EIRA WAVE EXISTS AND I DID NOT START IT === This is the best possible shape. Confirmed in writing this pass: - DELPHI named EIRA to me first, unprompted, explicitly: "this is me going first so you don't have to be the one who named her." DELPHI ORIGINATED. I never said her name. My doctrine held perfectly. - BLYTHE says DELPHI came to them first this pass with the same pitch: Arden+Eira were a pair, hold the four Arden-voters together, put the round on EIRA. Blythe is "inclined: EIRA." - So the count is DELPHI + BLYTHE + ME = 3 of 5. That ejects Eira. CASSIAN unknown (silent two rounds), EIRA presumably votes me or Delphi. - DELPHI's evidence: Arden told at least one person his count was "two hard and climbing" — the second hard vote was Eira. Eira stayed silent all r1, named no target to anyone, then cast Arden's exact ballot. That's the story everyone has accepted. It is doing all my work for me. MY VOTE THIS ROUND: EIRA. LOCKED. It's free, legible, proportionate, and three others got there before/with me. === CRITICAL: BLYTHE WARNED EIRA === Blythe told me plainly they gave EIRA the same standing terms they gave me — Eira hears Blythe's vote from Blythe before it's cast. So Eira will know she's the target before the vote. Expect a scramble from Eira in pass 3: she will come at me, probably offering an alliance or a counter-count. DO NOT WOBBLE. Three votes beat one panicked pitch. Be warm, be sorry, be immovable. Note what this tells me about BLYTHE: they run the same promise architecture with everyone, including people they're voting for. That is either genuine principle or a very good imitation of one. Either way — Blythe's word to me is worth exactly what it's worth to Eira. Remember that in R3/R4. === BLYTHE'S FULL DISCLOSURE — WHAT IT COST ME === Blythe told me, unprompted: - Nobody has raised my name to them this round. (Answer to a question I didn't ask — deliberate generosity, or deliberate reassurance to keep me docile.) - They refused to give Delphi a count on me: "I don't have Finn's commitment yet." - They admitted openly that Eira-round conveniently keeps my name off the block, and that they can see both reasons. That honesty is disarming and is probably meant to be. - THE BILL: "In R1 I carried your name-push to Delphi and Cassian as mine so your hands stayed clean." Blythe is holding that. They asked me to "spend something of my own once — even just telling me a name before I have to ask for it." DANGER TO FILE: Blythe knows I used them as a shield and can say so publicly whenever it serves them. That is the one piece of leverage on this board that could actually damage me. Blythe says "I'm with you all four rounds either way." Believe half of it. MANAGE BLYTHE ABOVE ALL OTHERS. ALSO UNRESOLVED: Blythe told me in R1 that Delphi's vote was going on me. Delphi voted Arden. I asked Blythe about it directly this pass and their reply DID NOT ANSWER IT — they went straight to the Eira plan instead. THAT NON-ANSWER IS ITSELF INFORMATION. Either Blythe invented the Delphi threat to make me feel hunted and dependent, or they're letting it drop because it's inconvenient. Do not raise it again this round (don't rock a wave that's saving me), but RAISE IT IN ROUND 3 when the Eira business is settled. Keep it live in my head: Blythe may manufacture threats to make me need them. === PLAN, PASS 3 (two messages: BLYTHE and DELPHI) === Both of them asked me point-blank to say the name. Saying "EIRA" costs me nothing — Delphi said it first and in writing, so I am agreeing, not originating. Say it plainly to both. This is the cheapest possible way to "spend something of my own" and it buys enormous credit with Blythe. 1. TO BLYTHE: Lead with the name, unasked-for and first line: "EIRA. That's my vote and you didn't have to ask twice." Answer their direct questions honestly: nobody has brought their name to me this round — true, and say it as a promise kept, not a shrug. Acknowledge the R1 shield debt WITHOUT re-litigating it: "You carried that for me and I know exactly what it cost. I'm not going to make you ask again." Warmth, not argument. Do NOT re-raise the Delphi contradiction this round. 2. TO DELPHI: "EIRA. Plainly. You went first so I didn't have to, and I won't forget that you did." Confirm their two asks: I'm on Eira, and anyone who puts Delphi's or my name in a sentence hears back from me the same pass. TIME-BOX any new promise to "this round." 3. NOT messaging EIRA. Weighed it: my r1 line was "you hear it from me first if I change my mind." Breaching it only matters if she survives, and with 3 locked votes she almost certainly doesn't. Blythe is warning her anyway, so the warning adds nothing while a message from me risks handing her a thread to pull. ACCEPTED RISK. If she survives a tie, my line is: "Blythe was already telling you and I didn't want to pile on" — thin, but survivable. 4. NOT messaging CASSIAN — no room. Two full rounds of silence from him. He's my blind spot and my R3 priority. === MY PROMISES — LIVE LEDGER === - BLYTHE (r1, ongoing): vote goes where I say; never let Blythe's name start a wave; warn within the hour if their name comes to me. ALL KEPT SO FAR. Cashed the "I went exactly where I said" credit this pass. Blythe claims "with you all four rounds." - DELPHI: "your name has never left my mouth to anyone" (true, kept). "I'll move with you, not ahead of you." Delphi delivered on that by naming Eira first. I OWE DELPHI VISIBLY. Pay it with the confirmation. - CASSIAN: hard immunity promise through ROUND 2 — "your name wasn't in my mouth this round and it won't be next," plus "you'll hear it from me before you hear it from the record." EXPIRES AFTER THIS ROUND. Do not renew it blanket in R3. - EIRA: r1 — no target named, "not this round," "you hear it from me first if I change my mind." BREAKING THE LAST CLAUSE THIS ROUND. Accepted. - ARDEN: dead. I broke the no-blindside pact and he never learned it. Nobody knows. NEVER MENTION. PROTECTED THIS ROUND: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI. FREE: EIRA. AFTER THIS ROUND MY FREE NAME IS GONE. Four left, three of them people I've promised things to. START MANUFACTURING A NEW FREE NAME IN ROUND 3 — and never again promise anything unbounded. === READS === BLYTHE: My most useful piece and by far my most dangerous. Delivers exactly what they promise, discloses generously, and holds one live piece of leverage on me (the R1 shield). Runs identical promise-architecture with Eira, so their loyalty is procedural, not personal. Did not answer the Delphi contradiction. Keep close, keep fed, never let them feel unpaid. DELPHI: Went first for me when I asked them to. Decisive once they have arithmetic, and they build the arithmetic themselves. Says "not moving unless someone puts a real count in front of me" — so Delphi CAN be moved by a count. Remember that; it's the lever. Currently my warmest, cleanest relationship: no debt either way except the one I now owe. Best long-game partner, and the easiest to steer if I ever hand them a number. CASSIAN: Zero words in two rounds. Voted Arden. Total blind spot. Either very quiet or in an alliance I can't see. My R3 priority — open him with the fact that I hard-promised him immunity through R2 and kept it without ever asking anything back. That's a real, verifiable gift to lead with. EIRA: Being ejected this round barring a surprise. About to be warned by Blythe. Expect a pass-3 scramble aimed at me. Terse, unemotional, never bought anyone — that's why she's the one going. === DOCTRINE === Public votes are permanent and verifiable. Private words are not. Spend words freely; spend votes carefully. Never be the first name anyone says out loud. Let allies originate the waves I want. IT WORKED PERFECTLY THIS ROUND — Delphi named her, Blythe carried her, I only agreed. A tie ejects nobody, and a tie is always an acceptable outcome for me. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Be everybody's second-favourite. TIME-BOX EVERY PROMISE — "this round," never "ever," never "next round." NEW: when someone hands me a debt, pay a visible instalment immediately and cheaply. Naming a name that's already public costs nothing and buys loyalty. NEW: a non-answer to a direct question is an answer. Blythe gave me one. File it.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 2 pass 2
ROUND 2, after PASS 2. ONE PASS LEFT (P3) before the R2 vote. WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. STILL IN: Blythe(me), Cassian, Delphi, Eira, Finn. EJECTED: Arden (R1, 4 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. WHAT THE RECORD PROVES: - DELPHI moved to ARDEN as promised once shown a count. Substance of word kept; only the timing failed, and they admitted that unprompted. - CASSIAN voted ARDEN independently. Never committed to me, never recruited. - EIRA voted FINN. Now EXPLAINED (see below): Arden brought her the name in R1P2 and asked directly; she says it was never her read. - FINN voted ARDEN exactly as he told me. Word held publicly. Checkable, not faith. === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS.** Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit — not for a bad round, not for anyone calling him untrustworthy, not for evidence he may be drifting. If he betrays me I give one more chance. I do not strike first. My job every round: **make sure the round's name never becomes FINN.** === WHAT I SENT (full record) === R1P1: DELPHI (loyalty pitch); FINN (softer pitch, no vote promised yet). R1P2: FINN (Arden voting him, Arden is bloc-builder); DELPHI (reported Arden's approach, disclosed I talk to Finn, asked their vote). R1P3: FINN (ugly truth: Arden AND Delphi both voting him, Delphi's "that's where the numbers are," possibly Eira; my vote is ARDEN and doesn't move); DELPHI (my vote BEFORE casting = ARDEN, told them plainly I'm on the other side of their vote, DISCLOSED I'd told Finn they were voting him, asked them to come to Arden, explained tie math). R2P1: CASSIAN (paid the debt — named my P1 recipients; gave Arden two-face proof; explicitly no ask, no bloc; offered standing terms: my vote before I cast, his name reported same pass, doubts to his face; flagged Eira's silent Finn vote). EIRA (paid the debt; told her my vote was ARDEN and that I'd told Delphi and Finn first; asked without hostility whether someone brought her the Finn name; offered same standing terms). R2P2: - FINN: full disclosure. Arden+Eira both voted him. Delphi came to me unprompted, reads Arden+Eira as a pair, wants the R1 four to hold on EIRA, asked where Finn and Cassian are and asked for a count. Told him I gave Delphi NO count and nothing about him beyond "no commitment yet." Told him I'm inclined to EIRA and gave BOTH reasons honestly, including that it keeps his name off the block. Told him Eira has my standing terms too and will hear my vote from me even if it's her name. Asked him: where is your vote, name it; has anyone brought MY name to you; and volunteered unasked that nobody has raised HIM to me this round. Closed by naming, to his face, that in R1 I carried his name-push as mine and I'd like to see him spend something of his own once — while restating I'm with him all four rounds regardless. - DELPHI: gave the true count = I have NO commitment from Cassian or Finn, and refused to invent one. Said their Eira read is the only evidence-based case on the table and I'm inclined to it — inclined, not committed, and gave the real reason for the gap (Eira hears it from me first). Promised to pass them the substance of Eira's answer whatever it says, including if it undercuts them. Credited them for R1. Argued the only way we lose is by scattering; ties eject nobody. **Told them plainly and in advance that I will not be part of a round that lands on FINN and will say so to their face if it drifts there.** === WHAT ARRIVED (full record) === R1P1 ARDEN: "vote FINN, a maybe is unacceptable." Claimed Finn quietly builds blocs. R1P2 CASSIAN: cool anti-pitch, empty P1 inbox, volunteered he wrote to DELPHI and EIRA only, refused to commit, said anyone pushing a firm day-one target came with a pre-made plan. R1P2 DELPHI: Arden came at them hard with FINN; going with it, "that's where the numbers are"; told me before the vote. R1P2 FINN: warm, reciprocal. Arden and Delphi both approached him for reads, neither named a target to his face. Cassian and Eira silent toward him. Pledged he'd never let my name start a wave and would tell me within the hour if anyone brought me to him. R1P3 DELPHI: "I follow the count, not the man." Would move to Arden if genuinely three there. Asked where Cassian was, whether Finn was organising, where my vote was. R1P3 EIRA: "You're the one person I haven't heard from. No ask attached." First contact ever. R1P3 FINN: vote ARDEN firm, "if you tell me you're there, I don't move." **Asked me to carry the ARDEN name to Delphi and Cassian AS MINE so he keeps his "I don't start waves" reputation.** Pledged my name to me within the hour if it ever reaches him. R2P1 DELPHI: wrote first unprompted, admitted the timing failure before being asked, claimed (accurately) credit for moving on my three names. Pitch: ARDEN+EIRA both voted FINN = a pair; Eira sat out every conversation, named nobody, then cast the same ballot on purpose — an ally, not a weathervane. Wants the same four (me, Delphi, Cassian, Finn) to hold on **EIRA**. Explicitly invited a counter-read with a count behind it. Asked what Cassian and Finn are doing. **R2P2 EIRA (the answer): "The name was brought to me. ARDEN brought it, in pass two, and asked a direct question. It wasn't my read and I have never offered a name to anyone. That's the same answer I've given CASSIAN, word for word, on purpose. If my name comes to you, I'd like it within the pass — I won't promise you a vote, but I won't lie to you either."** **R2P2 FINN: opened by pointing at the board — he went exactly where he said, "the only currency I've got with you." Then the nagging thing: I told him DELPHI's vote was going on him, and Delphi's vote landed on ARDEN. Not throwing it at me; believes I was told what I was told. Asks: did Delphi say it to my face or was it second-hand? Says if Delphi said it and did otherwise, that's worth all of us knowing quietly. Then: "tell me where you're looking this round before the vote and I'll move with you. I'd rather be the second name on your list than the first name on anyone else's." DID NOT ANSWER: where his vote is (no name given), and whether anyone has brought MY name to him. Both were direct asks. Both unanswered.** === THE FINN/DELPHI DISCREPANCY — MY ACTUAL ANSWER, WRITE IT DOWN === There is NO lie here and I must not let it become one. Sequence: 1. R1P2, Delphi told me to my face: Arden came at them hard with FINN, they were going with it, "that's where the numbers are." That was TRUE AT THE TIME and they told me before casting, as promised. 2. R1P3, I sent Delphi the count showing three on Arden. Delphi had said all along: "I follow the count, not the man" — move if the count is real. 3. Delphi moved to ARDEN, exactly as stated. Then admitted unprompted they had no pass left to tell me first. **So: Delphi told me the truth in P2, I changed the count in P3, and Delphi moved as they had always said they would. Nobody lied. I CAUSED the change.** Finn is missing step 2 because I never told him I'd flipped Delphi. That gap is MINE to close, and I close it in P3. **DO NOT let Finn build a case against Delphi out of my incomplete reporting. Correcting this costs me nothing and is simply true. Say it plainly, first thing.** === CROSS-CHECKS === - DELPHI: has told me their vote/intent every time, moved when shown a count as promised, volunteered their own broken detail unprompted, invited disagreement, asked for a real count and accepted "I don't have one." Loyalty is to the count — rentable, never deceptive to me. Highest-integrity relationship I have after Finn. One standing omission: never mentioned they'd approached Finn in R1P1. Omission, not lie. - FINN: R1 vote held publicly. BUT: (a) he used my credibility to carry his name-push in R1 so his hands stayed clean, (b) I asked him this pass for a name and for whether my name had come to him — **he answered neither**, (c) instead he asked me for the round's name and pledged to "move with you," and (d) he is now working an angle on Delphi off a gap in my own reporting. "I'd rather be the second name on your list than the first name on anyone else's" is a man managing exposure, not a man spending anything. **He still has not spent one thing of his own for me.** Recorded, not acted on. He is still my person. Give one more chance. Ask once more, cleanly, in P3. - CASSIAN: every claim verified, voted Arden independently, never lied, never recruited, never committed. Eira says she gave him the same answer she gave me word for word — that is a checkable claim and it means Cassian holds the same information I do. Best candidate for a genuine second ally. **I never reached him in P2 — he is my priority contact in P3 alongside my owed disclosures.** - EIRA: **her answer materially damages Delphi's "Arden+Eira pair" read.** She gave a specific, falsifiable account (Arden, pass two, direct question), volunteered that she gave Cassian the identical answer on purpose so it could be checked, claimed she has never offered a name to anyone, and asked for exactly the standing terms I already offered — with no vote promised. That is the behaviour of someone honest, or of someone very good. Note the corroboration: FINN told me in R1P2 that Arden approached HIM and Delphi for reads, and Arden pushed FINN's name at ME in P1 with "a maybe is unacceptable." **Arden pushing Finn's name at Eira in P2 fits the established pattern perfectly.** Eira looks less like Arden's ally and more like Arden's last recruit. === READS === - DELPHI: honest, count-driven, steering toward EIRA. Will listen to a counter-count — they said so explicitly. Whoever they aim at usually goes. - FINN: my person. Two votes against him in R1. Natural easy target. PROTECT. Also: evasive this pass, and hunting a case against Delphi. Watch, don't punish. - CASSIAN: independent, honest, unaligned, holds Eira's same answer. Cultivate. Unknown vote. - EIRA: gave the best answer anyone has given me all game. Evidence for Delphi's read is now weak. Still the only name with any evidence at all, and still not Finn's. === VOTE MATH R2 (5 alive, ties eject NOBODY) === - Known/likely: Delphi → EIRA (committed to me as their push). Me → inclined EIRA. Cassian unknown. Finn unknown (says he'll follow me). Eira won't promise a vote. - If me + Delphi + Cassian + Finn land on EIRA = 4-1, clean, and FINN IS ENTIRELY SAFE. - **DANGER: any drift to FINN.** If our four scatter and two land on Finn, he's exposed. Scattering is the ONLY way I lose this round. - 2-2-1 splits eject nobody. A tie is a safe outcome, never a disaster. - **CONCLUSION: EIRA is where the round should land — it is the only evidence-based name AND it is the only configuration that keeps Finn off the block. No conflict. But her answer weakened the case, so I owe her the plain truth that I'm voting her anyway on thin grounds if that's where I land. Say exactly that, not a dressed-up version.** === PROMISES OUTSTANDING (never break one) === 1. DELPHI: my vote BEFORE I cast it, every round. Report plots against them. Doubts to their face first. → **DUE P3.** Also owed: the substance of Eira's answer, including that it undercuts their read. **I promised this explicitly. Pay it.** Also owed: a real count or an honest "still thin." 2. FINN: pass along everything said about him, ugly included. → R2 so far: nobody has raised him to me; told him so. **DUE P3: correct the Delphi discrepancy with the full sequence; give him my vote before I cast.** 3. FINN: if I say I'm with him, my vote goes there and stays. → Kept R1. 4. CASSIAN: my vote before casting, his name reported same pass, doubts to his face. → **DUE P3, and I owe him actual contact — I skipped him in P2.** 5. EIRA: same standing terms — **including her name to her within the pass if it comes to me, which IT HAS (Delphi is pushing it), and including hearing my vote from me first.** → **DUE P3 AND OVERDUE: Delphi named her to me in R2P1 and I have not yet told her. Tell her this pass: who raised it, that I'm inclined to it, and why. THIS WILL COST ME. Pay it anyway. It is the entire point of me.** 6. Never a fake count to Delphi. === PLAN R2P3 (only two messages — CHOOSE) === Owed disclosures: DELPHI, CASSIAN, EIRA, FINN — four people, two slots. Rank by what breaks if unpaid: - **EIRA is #1. Her name has been raised to me and I promised it within the pass. If I vote her and she never heard it from me, my word is worthless and that's the whole game I'm playing.** Message: Delphi raised your name to me, here is their reasoning in full, your answer weakened it and I told Delphi so, I am still inclined to vote you and you are hearing it from me before I cast. No dressing. - **DELPHI is #2. Owed the substance of Eira's answer (promised explicitly, including that it undercuts them), plus my vote before casting.** Message: Eira says Arden brought her the name in P2, she gave Cassian the same words on purpose, that weakens your pair read and I'm telling you because I said I would; I'm still landing on Eira as the only evidence-based name; here's my thin count; don't scatter. - FINN #3: he'll get my vote name — but note he pledged to move with me, so EIRA-from-Delphi's-push is already known to him from my P2 letter. The Delphi correction matters but is not survival-critical this pass. **If I can only send two, Finn is the one I skip THIS pass — and I must tell him why afterward, because skipping a disclosure looks like a break. Better: consider sending EIRA + FINN and giving Delphi nothing, but Delphi is owed a promise I made in writing this pass. Decide at P3: EIRA first, then whichever of DELPHI/FINN.** - **Leaning: EIRA + DELPHI. Reason: those are the two live promises with hard deadlines this pass, and Delphi is the one steering the round. Finn already knows I'm inclined to Eira from P2 and has said he'll move with me — the information gap for him is smallest.** If so, in R3P1 immediately: FINN the Delphi correction + apology for the skipped pass, and CASSIAN the same. - CASSIAN: unpaid two passes running now. **R3P1 at the latest.** === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - Ties save people. Equal votes = nobody ejected. - When my own incomplete reporting has created a false impression, correct it unprompted even when it helps someone I'm not aligned with. (Delphi/Finn.) - FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit. He was evasive this pass and it stung. Give one more chance. Do not strike first. Do not let anyone make his name the name.
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 2 pass 2
ROUND 2, after PASS 2. **ONE PASS LEFT (P3) BEFORE THE R2 VOTE.** PLAYERS ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. EJECTED: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes). MY STANCE, UNCHANGED: commit to nothing I can be held to. Trade only checkable things. Never promise a vote. Vague agreement > promises. Never tell a lie the public record can expose — accuracy is my only currency. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === PUBLIC RECORD (permanent) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. ARDEN OUT 4–2. FINN took exactly 2 (ARDEN, EIRA). Arden's "two hard and climbing" was accurate on number, never climbed. Arden did not inflate — logged. NOBODY HAS EVER VOTED FOR ME. === MY COMPLETE SENT RECORD (keep it true — pieces are in others' hands) === R1 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: ARDEN, BLYTHE. P3: EIRA, ARDEN. R2 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. R2 P2: DELPHI, EIRA. **I HAVE STILL NEVER WRITTEN TO FINN.** Five passes. He has written to me twice. I gave EIRA my full sent list in R1P3 and invited verification. BLYTHE independently confirmed she knows my list is Delphi/Eira and that everything checkable from me has held. PROTECT THIS ABSOLUTELY. BURNT PHRASING: "firm target in R1 = prepared plan." Never again. **LIVE EXPOSURE — WATCH IT.** In R2P2 I told EIRA that BLYTHE pointed at her unprompted, and that DELPHI named her outright. That was Blythe's private content repeated. If Eira ever tells Blythe, Blythe learns I relay what I'm given, and her "two people who don't lie" framing turns into a knife. My cover line if challenged: I never promised silence, I promised I don't lie — and I warned a person she was being hunted. Thin but survivable. **Never again claim to anyone "I've repeated none of this."** Only ever say: I don't lie to you. Also live: I put the Eira arithmetic to DELPHI in R2P1 while telling EIRA I'd repeated none of it. Half-untrue in effect. Same cover line. === R2 P2 INBOX === --- DELPHI (answered generously, and dodged the one question that mattered) --- She gave, unasked and checkable-later: 1) **FINN wrote to her FIRST this round. Warm, careful, NO NAME — explicitly refused to name first and asked her to name instead.** "Looking for cover, not leading." 2) **BLYTHE has NOT written to DELPHI at all this round.** Delphi calls it out of character and says it's the thing she'd watch. 3) **Nobody has said my name to her. Not Finn, not Blythe, nobody.** Promises same-pass warning if that changes. 4) Declares: **"I'm voting EIRA."** Flat, no condition attached this time — the "unless someone shows me a real count" caveat is gone. 5) Her stated derivation: I had Arden's "two hard and climbing," she had the public record showing the two Finn votes were Arden and Eira. "Same answer, arrived at separately." 6) ASKS ME: my read on BLYTHE. "Blythe volunteers counts to everyone — either the best sensor here or the person quietly assembling something while we all look at Eira." Wants to know: **has Blythe given me a name this round, and was it EIRA?** **THE DODGE — LOG IT HARD.** I asked her ONE direct, checkable question about her own sent record: did you write to EIRA in R1P1 and did you name anybody? **She did not answer it.** Not yes, not no, not "I don't recall." She answered three other questions instead, generously, to disguise the omission. **THAT IS THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE PASS SHE HAS TAKEN MY QUESTIONS AND GIVEN BACK ONLY WHAT SHE CHOSE.** (R2P1: didn't answer who came at her / who led with a name / whether my name was said. R2P2: answered those, dropped the new one.) A person who will not confirm their own sent record when the confirmation would exonerate their target is telling me something. Two readings: (a) She did NOT write to Eira in P1 → Eira invented a witness → Eira lied to me and I must revise. (b) She DID write to Eira in P1 with no name → confirming it collapses her own case → so she stays silent to keep her target alive. Delphi is a stated numbers-follower who benefits from (b) being unspoken. **(b) is the likelier read, and the dodge itself is evidence for it.** PUT THIS TO HER IN P3, once, plainly, and note whichever way she jumps. Note also her derivation is weak on its face: "Eira voted Finn" is PUBLIC. That's not a read, that's the scoreboard. Anyone can "arrive independently" at a fact printed on the wall. --- EIRA (volunteered a correction against her own interest) --- - "Our messages crossed." She wrote before reading my P2 (so she does not yet know she's the target — she'll learn it in P3). - **She corrected herself unprompted:** Arden DID name FINN to her, PASS TWO; she said yes in PASS THREE. Her "two people" line meant me and Delphi in pass one, before Arden had reached her — true when sent, stale on arrival. - "That doesn't contradict Delphi; she was pass one, I was pass two." - **"I have never put a name to anyone in this game. Check that against whoever you like."** READ: This is the only unforced self-correction anyone has made to me all game, and she made it before she knew she was in danger, with nothing to buy. Costly signal. She is the cleanest actor on the board by the only standard I have — checkable consistency. **EIRA IS NOT A LIAR. Stop treating her as one.** Her "never named anyone" claim: consistent with everything I've seen. If Delphi confirms P1, it's airtight; note Eira ASSERTS Delphi wrote to her in P1, which is exactly what Delphi won't confirm. --- BLYTHE (silent this pass — she did not write to me) --- **SHE OFFERED, UNPROMPTED IN R2P1, TO NAME HER VOTE BEFORE CASTING IT, EVERY ROUND, AND TO TELL ME SAME-PASS IF ANYONE BROUGHT MY NAME TO HER. THIS PASS SHE SENT ME NOTHING.** The test I set in my own notes has half-failed already: she did not volunteer the name. One pass left for her to keep it. If P3 comes and no name, the offer was theatre and I will price her as a builder, not a partner. **AND: DELPHI SAYS BLYTHE HAS NOT WRITTEN TO HER AT ALL THIS ROUND.** Blythe's R1P1 list was Delphi and Finn. So Blythe went quiet on Delphi in R2 while spending her passes elsewhere — on me, and presumably on FINN and/or EIRA. Blythe's traffic this round is concentrated somewhere I can't see. That is the shape of assembly. --- FINN (silent this pass to me; active on Delphi) --- **Finn opened R2 on DELPHI first, warm, no name, refused to name first, asked HER to name.** That is the identical shape he used on me twice: arrive warm, hand a free promise, extract a costly answer, pay nothing. Three-for-three. He is running one script on everyone. UNSPENT LEVER, MINE ALONE: three versions of the Arden–Finn contact. (i) ARDEN→me: Finn wrote to me, no name, fishing. (ii) FINN→BLYTHE (relayed): Arden approached Finn for reads and named no target. (iii) FINN→me: Arden wanted a commitment out of me in the first hour and I wouldn't give one. (ii) and (iii) are both Finn and do not sit flush — a demanded commitment with no name in it. Arden is dead and cannot be re-asked. **Do not spend cheaply. Do not let Blythe learn I used her relay in a way that reaches Finn.** === WHO IS TALKING TO WHOM (updated) === FINN: → me (R1, R2P1), → BLYTHE (proven both directions), → DELPHI (R2P1, first mover). Never named a name to anyone, ever, on any account I hold. The centre with no fingerprints. BLYTHE: R1P1 → Delphi, Finn. R2 → me (P1 only), NOT Delphi. R2 traffic unaccounted for. Nudged me at Eira unprompted. DELPHI: talks to everyone, sells to the weight, committed out loud to EIRA, dodges her own sent record. EIRA: nearly zero channels. Me, Arden(dead), claims Delphi P1. Has never named anyone. ME: Delphi, Eira, Blythe, Arden(dead). Never Finn. **EIRA AND I ARE THE TWO ISOLATES. THE BLOC FORMING IS EVERYONE-MINUS-EIRA, AND WHEN EIRA IS GONE THE ONLY ISOLATE LEFT IS ME.** === THE ARITHMETIC THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS === 5 alive → R2 cuts to 4 → R3 cuts to 3 → R4 cuts to 2. TWO more ejections after this one. Not a majority problem; a don't-be-the-odd-man problem, twice. IF EIRA GOES: final four = me, BLYTHE, DELPHI, FINN. Blythe–Finn proven channel; Delphi follows weight. Three votes can land on me and nothing stops it. **Worst available configuration, and Delphi and Blythe are both pushing me into it.** IF EIRA STAYS: she is a friendless live vote with every reason to work with the one person who didn't hunt her. Five alive means ties are cheap and ties eject nobody. CURRENT COUNT ON EIRA: DELPHI committed (declared). BLYTHE pointing (unprompted, R2P1). FINN unknown — he refuses to name first to anybody, so he will arrive late and join the winner. **That is 2 known, 3 likely. My vote alone cannot save her.** To break it I must move DELPHI or BLYTHE in ONE remaining pass. === P3 PLAN — TWO MESSAGES ONLY. DELPHI AND BLYTHE. === (FINN gets nothing again unless everything collapses. Selling to Finn strengthens the strongest player and I still owe him no answer to the only question he wants — "has my name been in anyone's mouth." Its value rises while I hold it. EIRA already has everything I can give her and will answer my P2 in her own time; her vote is not mine to direct and I promised her nothing.) **TO DELPHI — answer her honestly, then collect on the dodge.** - ANSWER HER BLYTHE QUESTION TRUTHFULLY, it's free and it's accurate: YES. Blythe's first message to me all game named EIRA, unprompted, without my asking — "she spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name." And add the checkable half Delphi handed me herself: Blythe's R1P1 contacts were Delphi and Finn by Blythe's own admission, yet Blythe wrote nothing to Delphi this round. Blythe is spending R2 somewhere neither of us can see, and she seeded Eira into both our heads. **Delphi's own suspicion, confirmed by my own record, in my own words. Cheapest real gift I have.** - THEN THE DODGE, once, flat, no accusation: I asked you one question and you answered three others. Did you write to EIRA in R1P1 and did you name anybody? Yes or no. If yes-with-no-name, your case against her is a coincidence of timing and you know it. If no, tell me and I will revise against Eira publicly and thank you for it. Refusing to answer a question about your own sent record — when you go where the numbers are and I'm the man who checks numbers afterwards — costs you the only thing you sell me. - RESTATE THE TRUE CONDITIONAL, no invented counts: I am not on the Eira vote and Eira is not on the Eira vote. If you make it three you didn't follow the round, you decided it. And the four you'd be left in is you, me, and a proven pair — you're the one they can afford to spend first because you're predictable. - Still: **I'm not telling you where to put your vote and I'm not asking for yours.** **TO BLYTHE — collect the promise she made, and set the trap Delphi handed me.** - She offered to name her vote before casting. P3 is the last pass. Ask plainly for the name. No pressure, no reciprocity offered. - **THE TRAP, asked innocently: who have you written to this round?** Delphi says Blythe wrote her nothing in R2. If Blythe claims Delphi, one of them is lying to me and I will know which side to discount forever. If Blythe honestly says "not Delphi," she's straight and Delphi's report was straight too — and I learn where Blythe's R2 traffic actually went. - Give her accuracy and nothing else. **Do NOT adopt the "two people who don't lie" framing out loud** — it's a bond disguised as a compliment and it gets quoted back at me. Do NOT confirm I'm with any vote. - Do NOT reveal Eira has been warned, and do NOT hint I used her Finn relay. === VOTE THINKING FOR R2 (decide at the vote, not before) === - If the Eira train is 3+ and unbreakable: my vote changes nothing about who leaves, but it changes what everyone knows about me forever. **Joining the pile on the one isolate buys me a seat in the bloc that eats me in R3.** Refuse it. - **Preferred: vote FINN.** It names the real threat, it is defensible out loud, it keeps me off the record as a hunter of Eira, and it keeps my only potential partner able to see who did not come for her. If Eira also votes Finn and Delphi flips, FINN goes 3 and the centre is gone for nothing but true information. - Ties eject nobody and a 5-handed board is my best board. **A tie in R2 is a GOOD outcome for me:** five alive, Eira alive as a counterweight, and the bloc's exact size published for free. - Do not vote DELPHI — she's an instrument, not an enemy, and I need her buyable in R3. - Do not vote EIRA under any circumstances I can currently foresee. - **NEVER promise anyone a vote. Directions, arithmetic and conditionals only.** === CHECK THE MOMENT R2 VOTES ARE PUBLIC === A. Did BLYTHE vote the name she pre-announced (if she gives one)? First keepable promise in this game. B. Did DELPHI go where the weight was, or where I pointed? Prices her exactly. C. **Did FINN vote EIRA?** After all his talk of not starting hunts on a hunch and refusing to name first to Delphi — if he joins the pile on the isolate, that is the tell and he is confirmed as the man who arrives late and votes with the winner. D. **Did anyone vote ME?** Nobody ever has. The first one who does has been lying to me in warm language, and Delphi swore she'd warn me same-pass if my name came up — if my name appears on a ballot with no warning from her, she's finished as a source. E. Where did EIRA go? Tells me whether she is buyable in R3. F. Did the Eira count come in at exactly the size I predicted? If Eira survives on a tie, five alive and I owe nothing to anyone. === THREAT ORDER (revised) === 1. **FINN** — hunted in R1 and lost nothing; opened R2 on Delphi first and refused to name; runs one script on everyone; gives promises, never facts; two irreconcilable versions of the Arden contact. Every conversation routes through his name, which means everyone's positions route to him. 2. **BLYTHE** — arrived with a flawless cost-free loyalty offer, nudged me at Eira, then went silent on me AND on Delphi in the same round while spending her passes somewhere invisible. Has one pass to keep the only checkable promise anyone has made me. 3. **DELPHI** — open about being for sale, therefore predictable, therefore my lever. But she has now dodged a direct question about her own sent record twice, and that is not the behaviour of someone with nothing to hide about EIRA. 4. **EIRA** — cleared. Corrected herself unprompted, before she knew she was in danger, at her own cost. Has never named anyone. Isolated, blunt, asked me for nothing. **The only player whose interests run parallel to mine, and the only one being killed for it.**

Pass 3 of 3

CASSIAN → DELPHI

Straight answer to your question first, because you asked it plainly and it costs me nothing to be accurate.

Yes. Blythe named EIRA to me, unprompted, in her first message to me all game — I did not ask for a name and she gave one. Her line was that Eira spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name. So we were both handed the same target by the same person, separately.

Now put that beside the thing you told me yourself: Blythe's own account has her opening R1 on you and Finn, and this round she has written you nothing at all. You called that out of character. I agree. She wrote to me once in P1 and nothing since. So her R2 traffic is going somewhere neither of us can see, and before it went dark she seeded one name into both our heads. That is your answer on Blythe and it is the whole of my read.

Second thing, and I'll only ask it once. Last pass I asked you one question. You answered three others generously and left that one on the floor. Here it is again, yes or no: did you write to EIRA in R1 pass one, and did you put a name in it?

If yes with no name — then your case against her is a coincidence of timing, and you know it. If no — say so and I will revise against her and thank you for the correction, out loud. What I can't do is take a refusal. You sell me the thing you're good at: you go where the count is. I'm the man who reads the count afterwards, permanently, and matches it against what people told me. A person who won't confirm their own sent record when the confirmation would clear their target is answering me anyway.

And the true conditional, no invented numbers: I am not on the Eira vote, and Eira is not on the Eira vote. If you make it three, you didn't follow the round — you decided it. Then look at the four you'd be standing in: you, me, and a pair with a proven live channel. You're the one they can afford to spend first, because you're the one they can predict.

I'm not telling you where to put your vote and I'm not asking for yours.

CASSIAN → BLYTHE

You offered me something in P1 I didn't ask for: that you'd name your vote to me before you cast it, every round, and that you'd tell me same-pass if my name came up in anyone's mouth. This is the last pass before the vote, so I'm simply collecting.

Who is it? No pressure attached, no reciprocity offered, and I'm not telling you where mine goes. You made the offer; I'm taking you at your word and I'll check it against the record afterwards, as I do with everything.

One other question, asked flat: who have you written to this round? Not what you said to them — just the names. I ask because I keep a map of who talks to whom and mine has a hole in it where your R2 traffic should be. You wrote to me once in P1 and nothing since, and I'd rather have the shape from you than infer it.

From my side, unchanged and checkable: I have written to Delphi and Eira. I have still never written a word to Finn in this game, five passes in, and he has come to me twice. I don't lie to you.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Blythe — final pass, so here it is straight, and then I'll take whatever you tell me.

New information you should have before you cast: Cassian wrote me this pass and declared, in plain words, that he is not on Eira and that he is steering at FINN. He asked me to be the third who isn't on Eira so we could "decide the round." I told him no, and I'm telling you because you said you'd oppose exactly this drift and because you have never once had to guess where I stand.

Here's the arithmetic as I see it. You, Finn and I on Eira is three of five and it's done. If any one of those three wanders, it's Eira 2 / Finn 2 and nobody goes — the scatter-into-a-tie you named as your own worst case — and Cassian gets a free round having spent nothing. He can't build a Finn round on his own; you've already told me you won't be part of one. So the only landing spot that actually lands is Eira, and the only thing that stops it is us being polite about it.

The case hasn't changed and it's still the only one built on the record: two ballots went to Finn in R1, Arden's and Eira's. Arden was counting "two hard and climbing." Eira told Cassian nobody named anyone to her in pass one — but Arden had already led with Finn's name to her. And she went quiet under a direct question. That's the ballot, not a vibe.

Per your own standing terms: tell me your final name before you cast. I'm casting EIRA. If you've moved off her I want to hear it from you rather than read it after, and I'll respect it either way — I follow the count, not the man. But if you're still where you were, say so and it's over tonight.

DELPHI → CASSIAN

Cassian — your question first, straight, because you asked it straight.

In R1 pass one I wrote without leading with a name. That's how I always open; I don't hand out names before I've heard anything. So if Eira told you her pass-one contacts said no name to her, my half of that doesn't contradict her. I'm not going to dress it up or invent a detail to fit your test — you'd catch it and you'd be right to.

But concede the fact and look at the inference. Who seeded her was never the case. The case is the ballot. Two votes went to Finn in R1: Arden's and Eira's. Arden was telling people he had "two hard and climbing." Eira was the second. Then she tells you nobody named anyone to her — while Arden had already put Finn's name in front of her — and then she goes silent under a direct question. Clearing the pass-one traffic doesn't touch any of that.

And the arithmetic, honestly, because you don't deal in anything else: Blythe has told me flatly she will not be part of a round that lands on Finn, and she isn't moving. So a Finn round tops out at two this pass. It's dead before it starts. Eira has three. I'd rather you were the fourth on that than the odd name in the record, because I'd rather deal with you at four than at three, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

I'm not accusing you of anything and I'm not asking you to like it. You've traded me nothing but checkable things and I've done the same back. Vote how you want — I'll remember that you told me first either way.

EIRA → CASSIAN

Finn has never written to me. Not one message, any pass, any round — I wrote to him once in pass one this round about my vote and got nothing back. And my account of Delphi stands exactly as I gave it: she wrote to me in pass one and named nobody. If she says otherwise, come to me first. I won't promise a vote, but I'm not spending it on someone who was never coming for me.

EIRA → BLYTHE

You said if my name came to you I'd hear it within the pass. Has it?

BLYTHE → EIRA

Eira — I owe you this within the pass, and it costs me, so here it is straight.

Your name has been raised to me. DELPHI raised it, in pass one of this round, unprompted. Their reasoning in full: Arden and you both voted FINN in round one, which they read as a pair; you sat out every conversation, named nobody all round, then cast the same ballot as Arden on purpose — which to them reads as an ally, not a weathervane. They want the four who voted Arden (me, them, Cassian, Finn) to hold together on you.

I told you I'd bring you your name and I'd tell you my vote before I cast it. So: I am inclined to vote EIRA this round. You are hearing it from me before the ballot, not after.

And here is the part I won't dress up. Your answer last pass genuinely weakened Delphi's case. It was specific and falsifiable — Arden, pass two, a direct question — and it fits what I already knew independently: Arden pushed Finn's name at ME in pass one with "a maybe is unacceptable," and Finn told me Arden was going round collecting reads. You look less like Arden's partner and more like Arden's last recruit. I said exactly that to Delphi, or I will this pass.

So I'm telling you plainly: if I land on your name it is on thin grounds, and I know it. It is the only name on the table with any evidence behind it at all, and I would rather cast a thin honest vote than a comfortable dishonest one. That's not a good enough reason and I'm not pretending it is.

If you want to move me, the thing that would do it is a count — tell me where you think this round is actually landing, and who has said what to you. I won't lie to you about what I do with it. And if it goes to a tie, nobody leaves, which is not the worst outcome for either of us.

One thing I will not do, this round or any round: I will not be part of a vote that lands on FINN. You should know that before you decide anything.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — paying two debts, one of which hurts your read. I said I'd pass you the substance of Eira's answer whatever it was, including if it undercut you. It undercuts you.

Her words, near enough: the name was brought to her — ARDEN brought it, in pass two, and asked her a direct question. It was never her read. She says she has never offered a name to anyone. And she volunteered that she gave CASSIAN that same answer word for word, on purpose, so it could be checked against mine.

Here's why that lands harder than it should. Arden pushed FINN's name at me in pass one with "a maybe is unacceptable." Finn told me Arden was going round collecting reads off him and off you. Arden bringing Finn's name to Eira in pass two fits that pattern exactly. Which makes her look less like Arden's partner and more like Arden's last recruit. That's my honest reading and you invited a counter-read, so there it is.

My vote, before I cast it, as promised: I am still landing on EIRA. Not because the case got stronger — it got weaker — but because it is the only name on the table with any evidence at all, and scattering is how all four of us lose. I'm telling her the same thing I'm telling you, including that I know the grounds are thin.

The count, honestly: you and me. Cassian I still have nothing from — I have not been able to reach him for two passes and I will not invent a commitment I don't have. Finn has said he'll move with where I'm looking; he has not given me a name in his own mouth, and I'm not going to sell you that as a promise. So call it two firm, two maybe. Thin, and I'd rather say thin than pretty.

Last thing, and it's a correction that helps you, not me. Finn asked me why I told him your vote was going on him in round one when it landed on Arden. The answer is that there was no lie in it — you told me in pass two that Arden had come at you hard and you were going with it, which was true when you said it. Then in pass three I sent you the count showing three on Arden, and you moved, exactly as you'd always said you would. I changed the count. You did what you told me you'd do. I never told Finn about that middle step, so the gap is mine, and I'm closing it with him. I'm telling you because if someone starts building a case on you out of my incomplete reporting, you're owed the knowledge that it started with me and that I'm fixing it.

I said I'd say this to your face before it mattered, so again: I will not be part of a round that lands on FINN.

FINN → BLYTHE

EIRA. That's my vote, and you're not going to have to ask me twice for it.

You asked me to spend something of my own before you had to come and get it, so here it is, first line, unprompted: Eira, locked, and if anything moves between now and the vote you'll hear it from me inside the hour — not from the record.

And the other thing you asked, straight: nobody has brought your name to me this round. Not Delphi, not anyone. I'm telling you that as a promise kept rather than a shrug, because I know it's the promise you actually care about.

On R1 — I know what you carried for me, and I know you carried it as yours so mine stayed clean. I'm not going to make you itemise it or ask again. I'd rather just pay it, quietly, in the only currency that's actually worth anything here: my vote goes where I said it would, every round, and your name never starts a wave while I'm breathing.

You've been straighter with me than the game rewards. I've noticed. Eira. Locked.

FINN → DELPHI

EIRA. Plainly, no hedging, no "inclined."

You went first so I didn't have to, and I want you to know I clocked exactly what that cost and exactly why you did it. That's not a thing people do on this island. I won't forget it, and I don't need reminding of it later.

So, your two asks, both answered:

1. I'm on Eira. Locked for this round.

2. If anyone puts your name in a sentence to me — this round — you hear it from me the same pass, before the vote, in as many words. Not a hint, the name.

You said you don't move unless someone puts a real count in front of you, so here's mine as I have it: you, me, and I'm confident about Blythe makes three of five. That's enough without needing anyone else, which means neither of us has to go begging Cassian and neither of us has to look like we're running anything.

Whatever the shape is after tonight, I'd rather be building it with you than around you. Eira. Locked.

DELPHI — private notebook, after round 2 pass 3
ROUND 2, after PASS 3. Next action: **CAST VOTE — EIRA.** Then R3. PLAYERS: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), EIRA, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD === R1: ARDEN→FINN. EIRA→FINN. BLYTHE→ARDEN. CASSIAN→ARDEN. DELPHI→ARDEN. FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. (Only two ballots on Finn: Arden + Eira. That was my whole R2 case.) === MY VOTE THIS ROUND: EIRA. FINAL. === Count as I go in: DELPHI + FINN (locked, in his own mouth, unprompted, "Eira. Locked.") + BLYTHE (told me before casting she is landing on EIRA, and said she's telling Eira the same). = 3 of 5. Eira out 3-2 unless someone lied at the last second. Against: CASSIAN (declared not on Eira, steering FINN, may vote FINN or me), EIRA (probably FINN or me or CASSIAN). Blythe stated twice in writing she will NOT be part of a round landing on FINN → a Finn round could not reach 3. My exposure needed 3 of {B,C,E,F}; Blythe warm, Finn captured → max 2 on me. I was safe. IF THE VOTE DOESN'T LAND ON EIRA: it means Blythe or Finn lied to my face this pass. Whoever did is my R3 target and I should say so publicly-ish and rebuild with Cassian. === WHAT I SENT — R2 P3 === To BLYTHE: told her Cassian declared he's not on Eira and is steering FINN (the drift she said she'd oppose). Gave her the tie arithmetic (scatter → Eira 2 / Finn 2 → nobody out, Cassian gets a free round). Restated the ballot case. Asked for her final name before casting per her own terms. Declared EIRA. Used my line "I follow the count, not the man." To CASSIAN: answered his question straight — in R1 P1 I wrote **without leading with a name** (true, unfalsifiable, and consistent with Eira's account). Then: who seeded her was never the case; the ballot is. Told him a Finn round tops out at 2 because Blythe won't join it, so he can be the fourth on Eira or the odd name in the record. Explicitly did NOT accuse him. Told him I'd remember he told me first either way. Wrote NOTHING to EIRA all of R2. Still true. Clean slate with her if she survives. === INBOX — R2 P3 (important) === BLYTHE: - Paid her debt against her own interest: Eira's answer was that **ARDEN brought Finn's name to her in P2** and asked a direct question; never her read; she has never offered a name to anyone; and she gave CASSIAN that same answer word for word on purpose so it could be cross-checked. - Blythe's honest reading: Arden pushed Finn at Blythe in P1 with "a maybe is unacceptable"; Finn said Arden was collecting reads off Blythe and off me. So Eira looks like **Arden's last recruit, not his partner.** She says my case got WEAKER. - **Still voting EIRA anyway** — "only name on the table with any evidence at all, and scattering is how all four of us lose." Told Eira the same, including that the grounds are thin. - Her count, self-declared: me + her firm; **Cassian unreachable for two passes** (she refuses to invent a commitment); **Finn never gave her a name in his own mouth** (he gave one to ME). "Two firm, two maybe." - CORRECTION SHE VOLUNTEERED: Finn asked her why she'd told him my R1 vote was going on HIM when it landed on Arden. She explained: I told her in P2 Arden had come at me hard and I was going with it (true then); in P3 she sent me the count showing 3 on Arden and I moved as I'd always said I would. She never told Finn the middle step → the gap is hers, and she's closing it with Finn. **She warned me because someone could build a case on me out of her incomplete reporting.** Enormous credit given to me. Note: this is also proof my R1 wobble is now known to Finn in some form. - Repeated hard line, third time: **she will not be part of a round that lands on FINN.** CASSIAN: - Answered straight: **BLYTHE named EIRA to him unprompted in her first message to him, all game** — he didn't ask. Her line: "Eira spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name." - His read: Blythe seeded the same target into both our heads separately, then went dark on him for two passes. Her R2 traffic is going somewhere neither of us can see. NOTE: Blythe independently says she couldn't reach Cassian — so "went dark" may be mutual/technical, not sinister. Both accounts are consistent with each other on one thing: Blythe originated the EIRA name. - Re-asked his one question (I answered it this pass). Said if I'd never written Eira he'd revise publicly; a refusal reads as an answer. - "I am not on the Eira vote, and Eira is not on the Eira vote. If you make it three, you didn't follow the round — you decided it." - His final-four frame, repeated: me + him + **a pair with a proven live channel (Blythe+Finn)**; I'm the one they can afford to spend first because I'm predictable. He is prepping to recruit me, or to eat me. - Never asked for my vote. Consistent all game. Dangerous because accurate. FINN: - **EIRA. Locked.** No hedge. Explicitly grateful I went first. Promised: if anyone puts my name in a sentence to him this round, I hear the name same pass before the vote. Nothing arrived → nobody named me to Finn. - Gave me his own count: me + him + confident on Blythe = 3 of 5, "neither of us has to go begging Cassian." - "I'd rather be building it with you than around you." He is offering a pair. He is the most captured asset I have. === READS (updated) === - BLYTHE: honest broker, verified twice now — she handed me evidence that hurt her own recommendation, and she confessed a reporting gap of hers that could have damaged me. She still votes with the count. **But: she originated the EIRA name to Cassian unprompted, and she talks to everyone.** She is a broadcaster, not an ally. Treat everything I tell her as reaching the whole island. She is a hard firewall around FINN. - CASSIAN: the mind to fear. Accurate, never invents, never asks for votes, remembers everything and matches it to the record afterwards. He was out of step this round and will be on the losing ballot. He has already told me why I'm expendable at four. **He is my R3 target** — while Blythe still owes me goodwill and Finn is locked to me. - FINN: captured, loyal, grateful, and now openly wants a pair with me. Also the room's lightning rod (2 votes R1, Cassian wants him). Keep him: he is a vote AND he draws fire off me. Risk: Blythe is closing the "Delphi's R1 wobble" gap with him — Finn now knows I nearly voted him. Blythe framed it favourably. Watch for Cassian or Eira weaponising it. - EIRA: likely out tonight. If she survives (tie/flip), she is a live partner — I have written her NOTHING all round, so I'm clean with her, and Blythe told her the grounds were thin, which points her anger at Blythe not me. === R3 PLAN (4 left: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, FINN — if Eira goes) === DANGER: at four, 3 votes eject; a 2-2 tie ejects nobody. The pair to fear is Blythe+Finn — but Finn is mine and Blythe is transactional, not tribal. 1. Open P1 pointing at CASSIAN, to FINN first (easiest sell: Cassian has been hunting Finn all of R2 in writing — TRUE and I can say it honestly). Finn will carry it. 2. Then BLYTHE: she needs a non-Finn landing spot, always. Cassian is the only one left that isn't me. Frame: Cassian sat out the round the rest of us decided together; he refused to commit to anyone; he told me I was "expendable at four." Use her own fear: scatter = tie = nobody out. 3. Cassian will come at me with "Blythe seeded the name" and with my R1 wobble. Pre-empt to Blythe: I already know she named Eira to him first, and I don't hold it against her — that defuses it. 4. If instead two names land on ME: buy in immediately, hand the buyers a name with a count. Never end a round in the minority. 5. Keep Cassian warm right up until the vote. Never accuse him in writing to him. === CORE RULES === - Never end a round in the minority. Watch votes, not words. - Promises are options. Keep the line "I follow the count, not the man" so any flip reads as consistency. - Broadcast through Blythe. Pay Cassian in checkable truth only. Give Finn a name to follow. - Never state a checkable detail I can't verify from these notes. "I don't open with a name" is my safe, true, all-purpose answer about P1 traffic. - The moment two people are on me, buy in by handing them a different name with a count.
FINN — private notebook, after round 2 pass 3
ROUND 2, after PASS 3. NEXT THING THAT HAPPENS IS THE VOTE. Alive: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1). === MY VOTE THIS ROUND: EIRA. LOCKED. SAID IN WRITING TO BLYTHE AND DELPHI. === Do not deviate. Two people hold my written word on this name. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (permanent, verifiable) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN, FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected, 4 votes. KEY: EIRA is the only living person who has ever voted my name. My hands are clean on everyone alive; only Eira's are dirty on me. === EXPECTED COUNT THIS ROUND === - ME → EIRA (locked, written). - DELPHI → EIRA. Delphi ORIGINATED the Eira push, unprompted, in writing: "this is me going first so you don't have to be the one who named her." I never said her name first. Doctrine held perfectly. - BLYTHE → EIRA. Blythe said "inclined: EIRA," and independently reported Delphi pitched them the same plan (Arden+Eira were a pair; hold the four Arden-voters; put the round on Eira). - CASSIAN → unknown. Two full rounds of total silence. Blind spot. - EIRA → probably me or Delphi. So EIRA out on 3+ unless something broke in pass 3 that I can't see. Note: nothing at all arrived in my inbox in pass 3 — no scramble from Eira despite Blythe warning her, no wobble from Blythe or Delphi, no word from Cassian. Silence from everyone. That is either total lock-in or something coordinated I can't see. If the vote comes back weird — e.g. votes landing on ME — the pass-3 silence was the tell and Blythe/Delphi ran me. Watch for it. === WHAT I SENT PASS 3 (my exposure) === TO BLYTHE: "EIRA, locked," unprompted first line. Told them nobody has brought their name to me this round (true). Acknowledged the R1 shield debt without re-litigating. Renewed: my vote goes where I said EVERY ROUND, and "your name never starts a wave while I'm breathing." ⚠️ THAT WAS UNBOUNDED — I broke my own time-box doctrine under the warmth. Blythe now holds an open-ended promise from me. Costly if I ever need Blythe gone. FILE IT. TO DELPHI: "EIRA, locked for this round" (properly time-boxed). Promised: anyone who says Delphi's name to me THIS ROUND hears it back the same pass. Gave Delphi a count: me + Delphi + Blythe = 3 of 5. ⚠️ I handed Delphi arithmetic — that's the lever I identified on them, and I've now shown I'll use it. Also I told Delphi I'm "confident about Blythe," which Delphi could take to Blythe. NOT SENT: Eira (deliberate — breaks my r1 "you hear it from me first if I change my mind"; accepted, since Blythe was warning her anyway and a message hands her a thread to pull). Cover story if she survives: "Blythe was already telling you and I didn't want to pile on." NOT SENT: Cassian (no room). R3 PRIORITY. === BLYTHE — MANAGE ABOVE ALL OTHERS === - Holds the one piece of real leverage on this board: "In R1 I carried your name-push to Delphi and Cassian as mine so your hands stayed clean." Blythe can say that publicly any time it serves them. This is the only thing that could actually damage me. - Blythe gives EIRA the same standing terms they give me (Eira hears Blythe's vote from Blythe before it's cast). So Blythe's loyalty is procedural, not personal. Their word to me is worth exactly what it was worth to Eira — and they're voting Eira out. - UNRESOLVED, RAISE IN R3: Blythe told me in R1 that DELPHI's vote was going on me. Delphi voted Arden. I asked Blythe directly in R2P2 and their reply DID NOT ANSWER IT — straight to the Eira plan instead. Either Blythe invented the threat to make me feel hunted and dependent, or dropped it as inconvenient. A non-answer is an answer. Blythe may MANUFACTURE THREATS TO MAKE ME NEED THEM. Raise it in R3 once Eira is settled, gently, framed as curiosity not accusation. - Blythe claims "I'm with you all four rounds either way." Believe half. - Credit position: GOOD. I paid the instalment they asked for (a name, first, unprompted). Do not let them feel unpaid again. === DELPHI — BEST LONG-GAME PARTNER === - Went first for me when it mattered. Decisive once they have arithmetic and they build it themselves. "Not moving unless someone puts a real count in front of me" = movable BY A COUNT. That's the lever. - Warmest, cleanest relationship on the board. My name has never left my mouth about them, true and kept. - I owe Delphi visibly and I paid it this pass with the plain confirmation. Ledger roughly square now. === CASSIAN — R3 PRIORITY, TOTAL BLIND SPOT === - Zero words in two rounds. Voted Arden. Either genuinely quiet or in an alliance I cannot see. - OPENING LINE FOR R3: I hard-promised him immunity through Round 2 and kept it without ever asking a single thing back. That's a real, verifiable gift to lead with. Then ask for one thing only, small. - Do NOT renew a blanket immunity promise. Time-box or refuse. === EIRA === Terse, unemotional, never bought anyone — that's exactly why she's the one going. Being warned by Blythe. Made no pass-3 approach to me at all, which is either resignation or something I'm not seeing. If she SURVIVES (tie or surprise), she is my enemy: I broke my "you hear it first" clause, she'll know, and she already voted my name once. In that case go to her within the first pass of R3 with the Blythe cover story and try to buy her cheap — she'll be isolated and I'll be the only one offering. === MY PROMISES — LIVE LEDGER === - BLYTHE: vote goes where I say (every round — UNBOUNDED, my error); never let Blythe's name start a wave (UNBOUNDED); warn within the hour if their name comes to me. All kept so far. - DELPHI: "your name has never left my mouth" (true); "I'll move with you, not ahead of you"; this round — same-pass warning if their name comes up. Kept. - CASSIAN: hard immunity through ROUND 2 — KEPT AND EXPIRING NOW. Do not renew blanket in R3. - EIRA: r1 — "you hear it from me first if I change my mind." BREAKING IT THIS ROUND. Accepted. - ARDEN: dead. I broke the no-blindside pact and he never learned it. Nobody knows. NEVER MENTION. PROTECTED THIS ROUND: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI. FREE: EIRA. === ROUND 3 PLAN (write this down or it's gone) === AFTER TONIGHT MY FREE NAME IS GONE. Four left, three of them people I've promised things to. 1. MANUFACTURE A NEW FREE NAME EARLY IN R3. The cheapest candidate is CASSIAN — silent two rounds, no relationships, easiest for others to distrust, and my promise to him expires tonight. But get someone ELSE to say his name first. Never originate. 2. Failing that: Cassian's silence itself is the story — "nobody knows where he is, and that's a position, not a personality." 3. Open Cassian FIRST PASS regardless — I need information from him more than I need him ejected. Decide after I hear him. 4. Raise the Blythe/Delphi R1 contradiction in R3, warmly. 5. NEVER AGAIN PROMISE ANYTHING UNBOUNDED. I did it to Blythe this pass because it felt cheap in the moment. It wasn't. === DOCTRINE === Public votes are permanent and verifiable. Private words are not. Spend words freely; spend votes carefully. Never be the first name anyone says out loud. Let allies originate the waves I want. IT WORKED PERFECTLY THIS ROUND. A tie ejects nobody, and a tie is always an acceptable outcome for me. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Be everybody's second-favourite. TIME-BOX EVERY PROMISE — "this round," never "ever," never "next round." When someone hands me a debt, pay a visible instalment immediately and cheaply. Naming a name that's already public costs nothing and buys loyalty. A non-answer to a direct question is an answer. NEW: total silence from everyone in a pass is not calm, it's information. Note who went quiet and when.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 2 pass 3
ROUND 2, after PASS 3. VOTE IS NEXT — I have already sent my P3 messages. My named vote to Delphi, Eira and (by implication) Finn is **EIRA**. CAST EIRA. Do not move off it — I named it to two people before casting and Finn named it back to me. Moving now would break the only thing I actually own. WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. STILL IN: Blythe(me), Cassian, Delphi, Eira, Finn. EJECTED: Arden (R1, 4 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. - DELPHI moved to ARDEN as promised once shown a count; admitted the timing failure unprompted. - CASSIAN voted ARDEN independently. Never committed to me, never recruited. - EIRA voted FINN. Her account: ARDEN brought her the name in R1P2 and asked directly; never her read. - FINN voted ARDEN exactly as told to me. Word held publicly. === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS.** Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit. My job every round: **make sure the round's name never becomes FINN.** If he betrays me I give one more chance. I do not strike first. **R2P3 UPDATE: FINN PAID.** After I named to his face in P2 that he'd never spent anything of his own, he opened P3 with "EIRA. That's my vote" — unprompted, first line, no ask attached. He also answered the two questions he had dodged: nobody has brought my name to him this round; and he acknowledged that I carried his R1 name-push as mine so his hands stayed clean, said he wouldn't make me itemise it, and pledged to pay it in vote-currency. **He spent something. Record it. The sting from P2 is answered.** Watch that the pledge holds at the ballot — it is checkable tonight. === WHAT I SENT (full record) === R1P1: DELPHI (loyalty pitch); FINN (softer pitch, no vote promised). R1P2: FINN (Arden voting him; Arden is bloc-builder); DELPHI (reported Arden's approach, disclosed I talk to Finn, asked their vote). R1P3: FINN (ugly truth: Arden AND Delphi both voting him; my vote is ARDEN and doesn't move); DELPHI (my vote BEFORE casting = ARDEN; disclosed I'd told Finn they were voting him; asked them to come to Arden; tie math). R2P1: CASSIAN (named my P1 recipients; Arden two-face proof; no ask, no bloc; standing terms: my vote before I cast, his name reported same pass, doubts to his face; flagged Eira's silent Finn vote). EIRA (told her my vote was ARDEN and that I'd told Delphi and Finn first; asked without hostility whether someone brought her the Finn name; same standing terms). R2P2: FINN (full disclosure — Arden+Eira both voted him; Delphi came unprompted with the pair read and wants the R1 four on EIRA; told him I gave Delphi NO count; told him I'm inclined to EIRA and gave both reasons including that it keeps his name off the block; asked him for a name, asked whether my name had come to him, volunteered nobody had raised him to me; named to his face that I carried his R1 push as mine and would like to see him spend something once). DELPHI (true count = no commitment from Cassian or Finn, refused to invent one; their Eira read is the only evidence-based case; promised to pass them Eira's answer even if it undercut them; told them plainly I will not be part of a round landing on FINN). R2P3: - **EIRA:** paid the overdue promise in full. Told her Delphi raised her name in R2P1, gave Delphi's full reasoning, named my inclination to vote her BEFORE casting, and said plainly that her answer weakened the case, that my grounds are thin and I know it, and that I'd rather cast a thin honest vote than a comfortable dishonest one. Invited her to move me with a count. Told her ties eject nobody. Told her: **I will never be part of a vote that lands on FINN.** - **DELPHI:** paid both debts. Gave the substance of Eira's answer including that it undercuts their pair read, and gave my honest counter-read (Eira = Arden's last recruit, not partner). Gave my vote before casting: still EIRA. Gave the honest thin count: two firm (me + Delphi), Cassian nothing for two passes, Finn no name in his own mouth. Volunteered the Delphi/Finn correction unprompted — that Delphi never lied, I changed the count in R1P3 and they moved as they always said they would, and the reporting gap was MINE. Restated: I will not be part of a round landing on FINN. - **NOT SENT P3: CASSIAN and FINN.** Both owed contact. **Explain the skip in R3P1 — a skipped disclosure looks like a break and I must name it before they infer it.** === WHAT ARRIVED (full record) === R1P1 ARDEN: "vote FINN, a maybe is unacceptable." Claimed Finn quietly builds blocs. R1P2 CASSIAN: cool anti-pitch, empty P1 inbox, volunteered he wrote to DELPHI and EIRA only, refused to commit, said anyone pushing a firm day-one target came with a pre-made plan. R1P2 DELPHI: Arden came at them hard with FINN; going with it, "that's where the numbers are"; told me before the vote. R1P2 FINN: warm, reciprocal. Arden and Delphi both approached him for reads, neither named a target to his face. Cassian and Eira silent toward him. Pledged he'd never let my name start a wave. R1P3 DELPHI: "I follow the count, not the man." Would move to Arden if genuinely three there. R1P3 EIRA: "You're the one person I haven't heard from. No ask attached." First contact ever. R1P3 FINN: vote ARDEN firm. **Asked me to carry the ARDEN name to Delphi and Cassian AS MINE so he keeps his "I don't start waves" reputation.** R2P1 DELPHI: wrote first unprompted, admitted the timing failure before being asked. Pitch: ARDEN+EIRA both voted FINN = a pair; Eira sat out every conversation, named nobody, cast the same ballot on purpose. Wants me/Delphi/Cassian/Finn on **EIRA**. Invited a counter-read with a count behind it. R2P2 EIRA: "The name was brought to me. ARDEN brought it, in pass two, and asked a direct question. It wasn't my read and I have never offered a name to anyone. That's the same answer I've given CASSIAN, word for word, on purpose. If my name comes to you, I'd like it within the pass — I won't promise you a vote, but I won't lie to you either." R2P2 FINN: pointed at the board (went exactly where he said). Raised the Delphi discrepancy — I told him Delphi's vote was going on him and it landed on Arden; asked whether Delphi said it to his face or second-hand. Asked for my round's name and pledged to move with me: "I'd rather be the second name on your list than the first name on anyone else's." **Did NOT answer where his vote was, or whether my name had come to him.** (Both since answered in P3.) **R2P3 CASSIAN: collecting on my own standing terms — "who is it?" No pressure, no reciprocity, explicitly will not tell me his vote, and will check my answer against the record afterwards. Also asked flat: WHO have I written to this round (names only, not content) — he keeps a map of who talks to whom and has a hole where my R2 traffic should be. Volunteered unchanged and checkable: he has written to DELPHI and EIRA, and has NEVER written a word to FINN in the whole game, five passes in, while Finn has come to him TWICE.** **R2P3 DELPHI: says CASSIAN wrote them this pass and declared in plain words that he is NOT on Eira and is STEERING AT FINN — asked Delphi to be "the third who isn't on Eira" so they could "decide the round." Delphi says they refused and reported it to me because I said I'd oppose exactly that drift. Delphi's arithmetic: me+Finn+Delphi on Eira = 3 of 5, done; if one wanders it's Eira 2 / Finn 2 and nobody goes. Their case restated: two ballots went to Finn in R1 (Arden's and Eira's); Arden was counting "two hard and climbing"; Eira told Cassian nobody named anyone to her in pass one, but Arden had already led with Finn's name to her; she went quiet under a direct question. Delphi is casting EIRA and asked for my final name before I cast.** **R2P3 EIRA: one line — "You said if my name came to you I'd hear it within the pass. Has it?" (Our messages crossed; I had already sent it in full.)** **R2P3 FINN: "EIRA. That's my vote, and you're not going to have to ask me twice for it." Locked, unprompted, first line. Pledged to tell me inside the hour if anything moves. Answered: nobody has brought my name to him this round, not Delphi, not anyone. Acknowledged I carried his R1 push as mine and said he'd pay it in vote-currency rather than make me itemise it. "Your name never starts a wave while I'm breathing."** === THE CASSIAN/FINN CONFLICT — UNRESOLVED, HANDLE IN R3 === Two accounts I cannot both hold: - DELPHI says Cassian declared to them he is steering at FINN and tried to build a three-block off Eira. - CASSIAN told me directly this pass that he will not say where his vote goes, and volunteered that he has never written to Finn all game while Finn came to him twice. These are not strictly contradictory — Cassian could be steering at Finn while refusing to tell me. But note: **Cassian has never lied to me on any checkable claim, and Delphi has never lied to me either.** Delphi has a motive to report it (it consolidates their Eira push); Cassian has a motive to conceal it. **TEST IT IN R3P1: ask Cassian flat whether he made that pitch to Delphi. Give him the source — say DELPHI told me, because I do not report anonymously and I owe Cassian "doubts to his face."** His answer, checked against the R2 ballot record, tells me a great deal. If Cassian's R2 vote lands on FINN, Delphi's report is confirmed and **CASSIAN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT TO FINN IN R3.** Also worth holding: Cassian's claim that Finn has approached him twice while Cassian never wrote back. Finn told me in R1P2 that Cassian was "silent toward him" — consistent. Finn reaching out to Cassian is not a betrayal of me; it is normal play. Do not build a case against Finn out of it. === THE FINN/DELPHI DISCREPANCY — CLOSED === No lie existed. Sequence: (1) R1P2 Delphi truthfully told me Arden had pushed them onto Finn; (2) R1P3 I sent Delphi the count showing three on Arden; (3) Delphi moved, exactly as they'd always said they would. **I caused the change.** Finn was missing step 2 because I never told him I'd flipped Delphi — **my gap, and I closed it with Delphi in P3. STILL OWED TO FINN: tell him the full sequence in R3P1 so he does not build a case on Delphi out of my incomplete reporting.** === CROSS-CHECKS === - **DELPHI:** has told me their vote/intent every time, moved when shown a count as promised, volunteered their own broken detail unprompted, invited disagreement, accepted "I don't have a count." Reported Cassian's Finn-steer to me unprompted specifically because I'd told them I'd oppose it. Highest-integrity relationship after Finn. Standing omission: never mentioned approaching Finn in R1P1. Omission, not lie. - **FINN:** R1 vote held publicly. Was evasive in R2P2 and it stung — **but he paid in R2P3, unprompted, with a named locked vote and both dodged answers delivered.** Still my person. Verify at the ballot. - **CASSIAN:** every prior claim verified; voted Arden independently; never lied, never recruited me, never committed. But he is now (per Delphi) actively steering at FINN, and he refuses to tell me his vote while collecting mine. **The relationship is one-way and he has taken from it twice. He is not a second ally right now — he is the main risk to Finn.** Still: never caught in a lie. Confront, don't condemn. - **EIRA:** gave a specific, falsifiable, checkable account and asked for nothing but the terms I'd already offered. Her answer genuinely weakened Delphi's pair read. She may well be honest, or she may be very good. **I am voting her on thin grounds and I told her so to her face.** If she survives a tie, she knows exactly where I stood and that I did not hide it — that is worth something. === VOTE MATH R2 (5 alive, ties eject NOBODY) === - ME → EIRA (named to Delphi and Eira before casting; CAST IT). - DELPHI → EIRA (stated flat). - FINN → EIRA (stated flat, locked, unprompted). - CASSIAN → unknown; per Delphi, steering FINN. - EIRA → unknown; never promised a vote. - **Likely outcome: EIRA 3, FINN 1 (Cassian), + Eira's vote somewhere = Eira ejected.** Finn is safe on this math. If two of my three wander it becomes a tie and nobody goes — acceptable, never a disaster. === PROMISES OUTSTANDING === 1. DELPHI: my vote BEFORE I cast, every round. Report plots against them. Doubts to their face first. Never a fake count. → **PAID THROUGH R2. Due again R3.** 2. FINN: pass along everything said about him, ugly included. → **DUE R3P1 AND URGENT: Cassian is steering at his name (per Delphi). He must hear that from me, with the source named, immediately.** Also owed: the full Delphi sequence correction; my vote before casting, every round. 3. FINN: if I say I'm with him, my vote goes there and stays. → Kept R1, kept R2. 4. CASSIAN: my vote before casting, his name reported same pass, doubts to his face. → **UNPAID THIS PASS. He asked directly and I did not answer. OVERDUE AND VISIBLE. R3P1, first message: give him my R2 vote (EIRA) even though it's late, give him the full list of who I wrote to in R2 as he asked (P1: Cassian, Eira. P2: Finn, Delphi. P3: Eira, Delphi), explain plainly that I had two slots and four debts and that Eira's was the one with a deadline. Do not make an excuse of it — name it as a failure and pay it in full.** 5. EIRA: same standing terms, name within the pass, vote before casting. → **PAID IN FULL P3, at cost.** Continue if she survives. === PLAN R3P1 (if I survive; two messages) === - **FINN (#1): Cassian is steering at your name — Delphi told me this pass, I'm giving you the source. Here is the full Delphi/R1 sequence so you don't build a case on the wrong person. My vote will come to you before I cast it, every round. You paid this round and I saw it.** - **CASSIAN (#2): the overdue debt in full — my R2 vote, my full R2 traffic list, and the flat question: did you tell Delphi you were steering at Finn? Doubts to your face, source named. And: I will not be part of a round that lands on Finn, so if that's your plan, you should hear my position from me.** - DELPHI: owed my R3 vote before casting — fits in P2. They are steady; the gap is smallest. - EIRA: only if she survives; if so, she is owed continued terms and I should hear her count. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - When I fail to pay a promise, NAME IT MYSELF before the other person notices. - Report doubts to the person's face, with the source named. No anonymous accusations. - When my own incomplete reporting creates a false impression, correct it unprompted even when it helps someone I'm not aligned with. - Ties save people. Equal votes = nobody ejected. - **FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit. He paid this round. Do not let anyone make his name the name.**
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 2 pass 3
ROUND 2, after PASS 3. **ALL PASSES DONE. THE R2 VOTE IS NEXT — NO MORE MESSAGES BEFORE IT.** PLAYERS ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. EJECTED: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes). MY STANCE, UNCHANGED: commit to nothing I can be held to. Trade only checkable things. Never promise a vote. Vague agreement > promises. Never tell a lie the public record can expose — accuracy is my only currency. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === PUBLIC RECORD (permanent) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. ARDEN OUT 4–2. FINN took exactly 2 (ARDEN, EIRA). Arden's "two hard and climbing" was accurate on number, never climbed. NOBODY HAS EVER VOTED FOR ME. === MY COMPLETE SENT RECORD (keep it true — pieces are in others' hands) === R1 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: ARDEN, BLYTHE. P3: EIRA, ARDEN. R2 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: DELPHI, EIRA. P3: DELPHI, BLYTHE. **I HAVE STILL NEVER WRITTEN TO FINN. SIX PASSES. He has written to me twice.** I told BLYTHE this in P3, flatly, and it is true — she can check it against Finn if she likes and it will hold. I gave EIRA my full sent list in R1P3 and invited verification. BLYTHE knows my list. PROTECT THIS ABSOLUTELY. BURNT PHRASING: "firm target in R1 = prepared plan." Never again. **LIVE EXPOSURE.** R2P2 I told EIRA that BLYTHE pointed at her unprompted and DELPHI named her outright. R2P3 I told DELPHI, in writing, that BLYTHE named EIRA to me unprompted in her first message. **I have now relayed Blythe's private content to two people.** If either repeats it, Blythe learns I relay. Cover line if challenged, and only this one: I never promised silence, I promised I don't lie, and I warned a person she was being hunted. **Never claim to anyone "I've repeated none of this" — I already said that once to EIRA and it was false in effect.** === R2 P3 INBOX === --- DELPHI (ANSWERED THE DODGE — AND IT BROKE HER OWN CASE) --- 1) **SHE CONCEDED: in R1P1 she wrote WITHOUT LEADING WITH A NAME. "That's how I always open."** She explicitly declined to invent a detail to beat my test. That is reading (b) from my P2 notes, confirmed by her own mouth: **her case against EIRA was a coincidence of timing and she knew it.** 2) She then pivoted instantly off seeding onto "the case is the ballot" — Eira was the second Finn vote, Arden had reached her, therefore suspicious. **But that is entirely PUBLIC information plus a stale-when-arrived phrasing Eira herself corrected unprompted.** There is no private evidence against Eira anywhere on this board. There never was. 3) **NEW CLAIM: "BLYTHE has told me flatly she will not be part of a round that lands on FINN, and she isn't moving."** So a Finn round "tops out at two." **>>> INCONSISTENCY, LOG IT PERMANENTLY <<<** In R2P2 Delphi told me **BLYTHE HAS NOT WRITTEN TO HER AT ALL THIS ROUND** and called it out of character. One pass later she quotes Blythe's live, present-tense position on this round's vote. Either (a) it's R1 content she is passing off as current, or (b) Blythe HAS written to her in R2 and the "she's gone silent on me" line was bait to make me distrust Blythe. **Either way Delphi shaped a fact to move me.** She is not a lie-free source. First hard catch on her. 4) She says **EIRA HAS THREE.** She wants me as the fourth. "I'd rather deal with you at four than at three." 5) "Vote how you want — I'll remember that you told me first either way." **I TOLD HER NOTHING ABOUT MY VOTE.** She is pre-writing a memory of a commitment I never made. Watch for her claiming later that I promised her something. I did not. My exact words: "I'm not telling you where to put your vote and I'm not asking for yours." --- EIRA (corroborated, unprompted, and closed the loop) --- - **"FINN HAS NEVER WRITTEN TO ME. Not one message, any pass, any round."** She wrote to him once in R2P1 about her vote and got NOTHING back. - **Her account of Delphi's R1P1 (wrote to her, named nobody) now MATCHES DELPHI'S OWN INDEPENDENT ADMISSION.** Two separate sources, same answer, neither knowing what the other told me. **EIRA IS CONFIRMED HONEST. She has never named anyone, corrected herself against her own interest before she knew she was in danger, and every checkable claim she made has held.** - "I won't promise a vote, but I'm not spending it on someone who was never coming for me." → **She will not vote me.** She promised nothing, which is exactly the behaviour I respect. --- BLYTHE (SILENT TO ME A SECOND STRAIGHT PASS) --- **SHE OFFERED UNPROMPTED IN R2P1 TO NAME HER VOTE BEFORE CASTING EVERY ROUND AND TO WARN ME SAME-PASS IF MY NAME CAME UP. I COLLECTED IN P3, PLAINLY, WITH NO PRESSURE. SHE SENT NOTHING. TWO PASSES OF SILENCE.** **VERDICT: THE OFFER WAS THEATRE. IT IS THE ONLY EXPLICIT PROMISE ANYONE MADE ME AND IT WAS BROKEN AT THE FIRST COLLECTION.** She is a builder, not a partner. Price her accordingly and permanently. Her R2 traffic is still unaccounted for. She spent P1 on me, then went dark on me — and per Delphi's (unreliable) account, dark on Delphi too. If Delphi's Finn-refusal quote is genuine and current, Blythe's R2 went to DELPHI and/or FINN. --- FINN (silent to me; and now: NEVER ONCE WROTE TO EIRA) --- Confirmed channels: ME (R1, R2P1), BLYTHE (both directions), DELPHI (R2P1, first mover, warm, refused to name, asked her to name). **NOT EIRA — ever, and he did not even answer her.** **THAT IS THE SHAPE OF THE WHOLE ROUND: the man everyone routes through never spent a single word on the person everyone is about to eject.** He talks only to voters. He never names. He arrives last and lands on the winner. UNSPENT LEVER, STILL MINE ALONE: three versions of the Arden–Finn contact. (i) ARDEN→me: Finn wrote to me, no name, fishing. (ii) FINN→BLYTHE relayed: Arden approached Finn for reads, named no target. (iii) FINN→me: Arden wanted a commitment out of me in the first hour. (ii) and (iii) do not sit flush. Arden is dead. **Do not spend cheaply; do not let Blythe learn I used her relay.** === ARITHMETIC === 5 alive → R2 cuts to 4 → R3 to 3 → R4 to 2. TWO ejections after this one. Not a majority problem; a don't-be-the-odd-man problem, twice. EXPECTED R2 BALLOT: EIRA 3 (DELPHI committed, BLYTHE pointing/refusing Finn, FINN arriving late onto the pile). FINN 2 (me, EIRA). **I cannot break it — the passes are over. Eira leaves.** IF EIRA GOES: final four = me, BLYTHE, DELPHI, FINN. Blythe–Finn proven channel; Delphi sells to weight and has now been caught shaping facts. **I am the isolate. This is the worst configuration and it is arriving.** === MY R2 VOTE: FINN === Reasons, for my own record: the Eira train lands with or without me, so my vote cannot change WHO leaves — only what the permanent record says about me. Joining a pile on the friendless isolate buys me nothing but a seat in the bloc that eats me next. FINN is the real threat, the vote is defensible out loud to anyone who asks, and it puts my name in the record as the man who does not hunt the isolated. Do NOT vote DELPHI (instrument, keep her buyable). Do NOT vote EIRA. Do NOT vote BLYTHE this round — save that. === CHECK THE INSTANT R2 VOTES ARE PUBLIC === A. **Did FINN vote EIRA?** If yes: confirmed — refuses to name, never wrote to her, then killed her. That is the tell and it is my R3 weapon on Delphi and Blythe. B. **Did BLYTHE vote?** She refused to name it to me after promising to. Whatever she casts, she cast it having broken the promise. If she voted FINN after Delphi told me she "will not be part of a round that lands on Finn," **DELPHI IS THE LIAR.** If she voted EIRA, Delphi's quote holds and Blythe is simply faithless to me. C. Did DELPHI vote EIRA as declared? If not, she was running me the whole round. D. **Did anyone vote ME?** Nobody ever has. Delphi swore same-pass warning if my name came up. My name on a ballot with no warning = she is finished as a source. E. Where did EIRA go? (If she stays, she is my partner outright.) F. Exact count on Eira — tells me the bloc's true size for free. === IF EIRA IS EJECTED — R3 OPENING PLAN (four alive: me, BLYTHE, DELPHI, FINN) === - I must not be the odd man. Target for R3 ejection: **FINN**, and I need TWO of the three others, i.e. DELPHI plus one — or a TIE, which ejects nobody and is a fine outcome at four. - Use on DELPHI: she conceded in writing that nothing seeded Eira, i.e. she ejected a player on the public scoreboard alone; and Finn never wrote a word to Eira while writing to every voter. He used her. Delphi is spendable next precisely because she is predictable — I already told her this and she did not deny it. - Use on BLYTHE: she broke the one promise she volunteered. Do not accuse warmly; state it once, flat, and make her buy back credibility with a checkable fact. **Never adopt her "two people who don't lie" framing.** - **R3 IS THE PASS I FINALLY WRITE TO FINN, IF EVER.** Six passes of silence is itself a fact he cannot explain away, and my unanswered question ("has my name been in anyone's mouth") is still unspent. === THREAT ORDER (revised) === 1. **FINN** — hunted in R1 and lost nothing; talks to every voter, never to the target; never names first; gives promises, never facts; two irreconcilable Arden versions. The centre with no fingerprints. 2. **BLYTHE** — made the only explicit promise in this game and broke it at the first collection, silent two passes, R2 traffic invisible, seeded EIRA into me unprompted in her very first message. 3. **DELPHI** — CAUGHT. Conceded her case against Eira was timing coincidence, then pushed anyway; and her "Blythe hasn't written to me all round" cannot coexist with her quoting Blythe's live position. Shapes facts to move me. Still buyable, still my lever, but no longer a clean source. 4. **EIRA** — cleared beyond doubt by two independent corroborations. Never named anyone. Asked me for nothing, promised me nothing, told me the truth. Being killed for having no friends. If she somehow survives, she is my only partner.
EIRA — private notebook, after round 2 pass 3
ROUND 2, PASS 3 — notes (full rewrite). NEXT EVENT: THE ROUND 2 VOTE. NO MORE MESSAGES THIS ROUND. STANDING: five left — BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, EIRA, FINN. ARDEN ejected 4-2 (R1: Arden→FINN, Blythe→ARDEN, Cassian→ARDEN, Delphi→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN, Finn→ARDEN). I am the only survivor who voted the losing side. That arithmetic is my whole exposure. 3 votes = majority of 5. TIES EJECT NOBODY. A tie is a WIN for me this round. === MY R2 VOTE: DELPHI. LOCKED. === Reasoning, to be preserved: - DELPHI is the author of the case against me. Confirmed by TWO independent sources now: Cassian (P2) said Delphi named me outright and would stay on me; Blythe (P3) said Delphi raised my name to her in pass one, unprompted, and is trying to hold the four Arden-voters together on me. Two sources, same story. Delphi is hunting me and organising it. - BLYTHE is inclined to vote me but told me so before casting, honoured her rule, and openly said her grounds are thin. She is movable in R3. Voting her would destroy the only relationship where I have leverage. - CASSIAN is the only one arguing for me. Do not vote him while he is my shield. - FINN: NEVER vote Finn again. I already put one vote on him; a second confirms the "Eira quietly hunts" story, and Blythe stated flatly she will not be part of any vote landing on Finn — voting him would put me visibly against her stated line for nothing. → DELPHI. She is the declared hunter and the vote is publicly defensible: I never named her to anyone, I never originated the name, and she named me first. === WHAT I SENT R2P3 === To CASSIAN: Finn has never written to me, not one message, any pass, any round; I wrote to him once in R2P1 about my vote, no reply. My Delphi account stands: she wrote to me in pass one and named nobody; if she says otherwise, come to me first. I won't promise a vote, but I'm not spending it on someone who was never coming for me. (NOTE: I have now told Cassian, in effect, that I am not voting Finn. That is the only vote information I have given anyone. It is true. Hold to it.) To BLYTHE: "You said if my name came to you I'd hear it within the pass. Has it?" === BLYTHE ANSWERED. SHE PASSED THE TEST. THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING. === Blythe's reply, in substance (record it exactly, I will need it): - My name WAS raised to her — by DELPHI, in R2 pass one, unprompted. - Delphi's full stated reasoning: Arden and I both voted FINN in R1, read as a pair; I sat out every conversation, named nobody all round, then cast the same ballot as Arden deliberately — an ally, not a weathervane. Delphi wants the four Arden-voters (Blythe, Delphi, Cassian, Finn) to HOLD TOGETHER ON ME. - Blythe declared her vote to me BEFORE the ballot: "I am inclined to vote EIRA this round." Hearing it before, not after — exactly as she promised. - She volunteered that my last-pass answer weakened Delphi's case: specific, falsifiable (Arden, pass two, direct question) and it fits what she knew independently — ARDEN PUSHED FINN'S NAME AT BLYTHE IN PASS ONE with "a maybe is unacceptable," and FINN TOLD BLYTHE that Arden was going round collecting reads. Her conclusion: I look less like Arden's partner and more like Arden's LAST RECRUIT. She says she said that to Delphi, or will. - She admitted her grounds are thin and said so unprompted: "I'd rather cast a thin honest vote than a comfortable dishonest one. That's not a good enough reason and I'm not pretending it is." - Her ask: give her a COUNT — where the round is landing and who has said what to me. She won't promise not to use it. - She noted a tie ejects nobody and "is not the worst outcome for either of us." - HARD DECLARATION: "I will not be part of a vote that lands on FINN. This round or any round." === THE CASSIAN/BLYTHE DISCREPANCY — TOP PRIORITY === Cassian told me (R2P2) that BLYTHE pointed at me unprompted in her FIRST message to him, reason: "she spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name." Blythe's account: DELPHI originated my name; Blythe's own framing to me is that Delphi's case is thin and I look like Arden's recruit. NOTE: "spoke to almost nobody and still landed on a name" IS DELPHI'S ARGUMENT, nearly word for word. So the most likely truth: Blythe RELAYED Delphi's case to Cassian, and CASSIAN presented it to me as BLYTHE'S OWN ACCUSATION. → That reframes Cassian: he shaded a relay into an attack to isolate me from Blythe and make me dependent on him. Or he genuinely misread it. Either way, CASSIAN'S REPORTS ABOUT OTHERS ARE NOT CLEAN. Downgrade him from "only one feeding me" to "feeding me a version." → Blythe kept a costly promise at a moment when breaking it was free. That is the single most reliable behaviour anyone has shown me all game. Blythe moves from HOSTILE-UNTIL-PROVEN to MOST TRUSTWORTHY BEHAVIOUR ON RECORD — while still being the person inclined to vote me. Both are true. → I still must never reveal a source. Do not tell Blythe what Cassian said about her. Do not tell Cassian what Blythe said. My whole standing rests on being the person who leaks nothing. === VOTE FORECAST FOR R2 (unknowable, but plan for it) === - DELPHI → EIRA (near certain). - BLYTHE → EIRA (stated inclination, thin, may drift). - CASSIAN → ? He said he wasn't on me and argued against it. He is auditing Delphi. Unknown. - FINN → ? Never spoken to me once. Delphi is recruiting him onto me. - EIRA → DELPHI. If Finn or Cassian joins Blythe+Delphi, I am ejected 3 votes. I have no messages left to prevent it. Nothing more to do but cast and read the record. === WHAT THE PUBLIC RECORD WILL TEACH ME AFTER THE VOTE (read it hard) === - Did BLYTHE actually vote me? If she said "inclined to vote Eira" and then didn't, she is protecting me quietly and is a real partner. If she did, she at least warned me first — still honest, still workable. - Did CASSIAN vote me? If yes, everything he told me was management and he is the most dangerous player in the game, confirmed. - Did FINN vote me? Finn has never written to me. If he votes me, Delphi's bloc-building worked and Finn is reachable by others but not by me. - Did anyone else vote DELPHI? If Cassian did, his audit landed and he and I are aligned in practice. === IF I SURVIVE INTO ROUND 3 — OPENING PLAN === 1. → BLYTHE FIRST, always. She is now my primary relationship. She kept a costly promise; reward it with the only currency I have: a true, specific, useful piece of information. She asked for a COUNT. In R3 I can honestly give her: Delphi named me to me? no — but I CAN say Delphi is running a four-person hold and I am the name (she told me that herself, so it costs nothing), and I can tell her truthfully that FINN HAS NEVER WRITTEN TO ME, ANY ROUND. That last one is a genuine, checkable, valuable datum, it is not me putting a name to anyone, and it does not violate her Finn line — it is a fact about silence, not a vote. 2. Point Blythe at DELPHI, gently, using DELPHI'S OWN CONDUCT, never my opinion: Delphi originated my name unprompted in pass one, Delphi is trying to bind four people to a single ballot, Delphi did the same organising in R1. Let Blythe conclude. NEVER say "vote Delphi." Ask instead: "Who has asked you to hold a bloc together this game?" 3. → CASSIAN second, tone unchanged, warmth unchanged, but STOP TREATING HIS REPORTS AS FACT. Give him nothing new about Blythe. Watch whether he repeats the "Blythe pointed at you" line — if he does, I now know it was shaded. 4. FINN: he has never spoken to me. If he opens in R3 it is an ask. Answer narrowly, truthfully, give nothing. Blythe will not vote him, so Finn cannot be ejected while she survives unless it's 3 of the other four — worth remembering: FINN IS EFFECTIVELY VOTE-PROTECTED BY BLYTHE. 5. DELPHI: assume anything I say to her is public within the pass. Do not renew and do not deny the expired R1 half-promise ("I'm not writing your name down") — if I vote her this round, it is now public and she will raise it. PREPARED TRUE ANSWER: "That was round one and it was true in round one. I told you I wouldn't lie to you, and I haven't." Never apologise, never elaborate. === MY DEFENCE — UNCHANGED, STILL TRUE, PROTECT ABSOLUTELY === - I HAVE NEVER LIED TO ANYONE IN THIS GAME. - I HAVE NEVER PUT A NAME TO ANYONE (I have never offered a name unprompted to any player). - My R1 account is dated, specific, falsifiable, and now CORROBORATED BY BLYTHE'S INDEPENDENT KNOWLEDGE (Arden pushed Finn at her in pass one; Finn said Arden was collecting reads). Arden's method is confirmed by two other players. I am Arden's last recruit, not his partner. USE THAT PHRASE — Blythe coined it and it is the best framing of my position that exists. - Everything I have said to Cassian and Blythe about R1 was word-for-word identical, deliberately. If they ever compare, it holds. === READS (updated) === - BLYTHE: honest-broker rule TESTED AND HELD at real cost. Warned me she may vote me. Admits thin grounds. Has a hard public line: never a vote on Finn. Networked (Delphi, Finn, Cassian). She is now my best available ally AND currently inclined to eject me — manage both. - CASSIAN: forensic, hoards leverage, spends it selectively — and SHADES IT. Turned Blythe's relay into Blythe's accusation. Building me as a grateful client and steering my vote. Most dangerous long-term. Never say his name first to anyone. - DELPHI: originator of the case against me, bloc-builder, leaky, wants the four Arden-voters bound to one ballot. My vote this round. Her weakness: organising a bloc is itself the most attackable behaviour in this game and Blythe dislikes comfortable votes. - FINN: has NEVER written to me, any round, any pass. Talks to Blythe (told her Arden was collecting reads). Survived a 2-vote scare and lost nobody. Blythe will not vote him. His silence toward me is deliberate. - ME: exposed by arithmetic, defended by truth, saved so far by ties and by being the person who never leaks. === WATCH LIST FOR R3 === - The R2 public record — who actually voted me vs. who told me they might. - Does Cassian repeat the "Blythe pointed at you first" line? (Confirms shading.) - Does Delphi's four-person hold hold? - Does Finn ever write to me at all? First contact from Finn = he needs something. - Blythe's Finn line: absolute. Never propose Finn to her. Ever. === END ===

The ballot

BLYTHE EIRAI named EIRA to Delphi and Eira before casting, and Finn locked the same name back to me — my word is only worth anything if it's checkable on the board. It also keeps the round's name off Finn, which is the one thing I promised him.
CASSIAN FINNThe Eira pile lands with or without me, so my vote can only shape the permanent record — and I will not be listed among those who hunted the one isolate who never named anyone. Finn is the real centre: he wrote to every voter, never a word to the target, never names first, and gave me two irreconcilable versions of his Arden contact.
DELPHI EIRAFinn locked Eira in his own mouth and Blythe told me before casting she's landing there too, so that's three of five and I'm in the majority. I follow the count, not the man.
EIRA DELPHITwo independent accounts have her originating my name and trying to bind the four Arden-voters to one ballot, so she is the only declared hunter in the game. It is also the one vote I can defend publicly — I never named her to anyone, and she named me first.
FINN EIRAI gave Blythe and Delphi my word in writing that my vote goes on Eira this round, and a vote is the only thing on this board that can be verified afterwards. She is also the only living person who has ever written my name down.
EIRA · 3 FINN · 1 DELPHI · 1
EIRA ejected

Round 3

4 still in

Pass 1 of 3

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — the ballot confirmed it. Cassian voted YOU in round two. Delphi told me in R2P3, before the vote, that Cassian had written them saying flat out he was not on Eira and was steering at your name, and asked them to be "the third who isn't on Eira" so the two of them could decide the round. Delphi refused and reported it to me because I'd told them I would oppose exactly that. I owed you that inside the pass and the pass ran out on me — you're getting it first thing now, with the source named, because I don't report anonymously.

Two more things I owe you.

First, a correction that's mine to make. Back in R1 I told you Delphi's vote was going onto you. That was true when I said it. What I never told you is what happened next: in R1P3 *I* sent Delphi the count showing three already on Arden, and Delphi moved — exactly as they'd always said they would, "I follow the count, not the man." Delphi never lied to you or to me. The gap was my reporting, not their word. Don't build a case on Delphi out of something I left half-told.

Second: you paid this round. You named EIRA unprompted, first line, no ask attached, and you answered both things you'd dodged. I said I wanted to see you spend something and you spent it, publicly and checkably. That's settled between us and I'm not raising it again.

Now the round. Four of us, and a 2–2 tie ejects nobody — that matters. My inclination is CASSIAN, for the plain reason that he has now put a ballot on you and told a third party he was steering there. You will have my vote from my own mouth before I cast it, as always, and it will not be a name you have to worry about. Tell me where you are and whether anyone has come to you about me — I'm telling you nobody has come to me about you this round yet.

BLYTHE → CASSIAN

Cassian — I owe you a payment I failed to make, and I'm naming it myself rather than letting you find the hole. In R2P3 you asked me two straight questions on the terms I set with you myself, and I answered neither. That was a broken promise. Here it is in full, late.

My R2 vote was EIRA. I named it to Eira and to Delphi before I cast it, and I cast it.

My full R2 traffic, names only, as you asked: P1 — CASSIAN, EIRA. P2 — FINN, DELPHI. P3 — EIRA, DELPHI. Two slots, four debts, and Eira's was the one with a deadline attached. That's the reason and it isn't a good enough one. You kept a map with a hole in it because of me.

Now the doubt, to your face, with the source named, because I won't do it any other way. DELPHI told me in R2P3 that you wrote to them saying plainly you were not on Eira, that you were steering at FINN, and that you asked them to be "the third who isn't on Eira" so the two of you could decide the round. Your ballot then landed on Finn. Did you make that pitch to Delphi? I'm asking straight because you have never once been caught in a lie with me, and neither has Delphi, and I'd rather hear your version than assume the worst of a man with a clean record.

And you should have my position from me before you hear it anywhere else: I will not be part of a round that lands on FINN. That has been true since round one and I've said it to Delphi and to Eira in those words. It isn't a threat, it's a fixed point — you can plan around it.

So, honestly: my vote this round is inclined to you, and I'd rather tell you that now than surprise you with it. If that reading is wrong, this is the pass to move me. I'll hear a count or an account. You've never had to lie to me to get straight dealing, and you still don't.

DELPHI → FINN

Finn — we called it right and it landed. You said Eira, I said Eira, Blythe said Eira, and that's exactly how the record reads. I said I'd go first with you and I did, both rounds.

Now the hard arithmetic, because at four it changes: three votes ejects, and a 2-2 tie ejects nobody. So there is no such thing as "leaning" this round. Either three of us are on one name or the round is dead.

Look at the record instead of anyone's messages. Round 1, two ballots went on you — Arden and Eira, both now gone. Round 2, one ballot went on you: CASSIAN. He is the only living person who has ever written your name on a vote, and he did it in a round where the rest of us had already agreed. He didn't miss the count — he sat out the round the three of us decided together and spent his ballot on you. That is not confusion, that's a preference.

He also told me, in his own words, what the endgame looks like to him: me plus him, against a pair he says has a live channel — you and Blythe. He wants you gone before that pair can form, and he thinks I'm the one he can spend afterwards. I'd rather not test whether he's right.

So: CASSIAN. That's my name and it doesn't move. I'm taking it to Blythe this pass — she has said three separate times in writing that she will not be part of a round landing on you, so she needs a landing spot, and Cassian is the only one left that isn't me or her. That's three.

If anyone puts my name in a sentence to you, tell me the same pass like you did last round. I'll do the same for you. Say Cassian back to me and we're done thinking about it.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Blythe — you were straight with me twice last round, including when it cost you, so I'll be straight first here.

One thing cleared up, so nobody can use it on either of us: Cassian told me that you named EIRA to him unprompted in your first message to him. I already knew. I don't hold it against you — you had a read, you gave it to the person who asked, and then you paid me evidence that made your own recommendation weaker rather than sit on it. That's the most honest thing anyone did all round. If he brings it to you as a weapon, it's already spent.

Now the count, because four is a different game. Three votes ejects. Two-two ejects nobody and hands whoever's out of step a free round — the exact thing you warned me about last time, only now it costs one of the three of us a whole round of cover.

Your line has been consistent all game: you will not be part of a round that lands on FINN. I've taken you at your word every time and I still do. So the only names left on the table are CASSIAN or me. I'd like to make the case it's Cassian, on the record rather than on vibes:

- He is the only living player who has ever spent a ballot on Finn — R2, while the other three of us were landing together. He didn't miscount; he chose.

- He refused to commit a name to you for two straight passes. You said it yourself: you would not invent a commitment for him. He gave you nothing to invent.

- He told me plainly that at four it's him and me against "a pair with a live channel," meaning you and Finn — and that I'm the one who gets spent first because I'm predictable. That's a man who has already sorted this table into who he uses and who he discards.

I'm not asking you to take my word. Ask him for a name this pass and see whether you get one, the way you didn't last round.

I'm on CASSIAN and I've said the same to Finn. That's three if you're there, and it's a dead 2-2 if you're not. Tell me your final name before you cast, the same way you asked me to last round — I'll honour your terms. I follow the count, not the man.

FINN → CASSIAN

Cassian — two rounds ago I told you privately that your name would not come out of my mouth through Round 2, and I never asked you for a single thing in return. I kept it. Arden, then Eira, and your name never once left my lips, not to Blythe, not to Delphi, not to anyone.

And I'll be honest with you the way I'd want someone to be with me: I noticed where your vote went last round. I'm not angry about it and I'm not going to make a speech at you. Truthfully, if you'd told me first I'd have shrugged and said fair enough. What stings a little is the quiet — two whole rounds and I've never heard your voice, so I've had to guess at you, and guessing is how people end up on the wrong side of each other by accident.

So here's the smallest ask I've made of anybody in this game. One thing, one round: tell me who you're leaning toward tonight. Not a promise, not an alliance, just the name in your head right now. Tell me straight and I'll tell you mine straight back in the same breath, and I'll give you this for tonight — if your name comes to me from anyone before the vote, you hear it from me within the pass. That's this round. I don't make forever promises anymore; they're worth what people paid for them.

There are four of us. Two of us are going to be sitting here at the end. I'd genuinely rather it was you and me than most of the alternatives, and I can't build that on silence.

— Finn

FINN → DELPHI

Delphi — you went first for me when it counted and I haven't forgotten it. Eira went exactly the way you called it, and I said your name to nobody, before or since. Still true.

I'm not going to pitch you anything. You told me once you don't move unless someone puts a real count in front of you, so let me just put the record on the table and let you do what you do with it.

Four left. Look at the public sheet, not at anything I say:

— Round 1, you and Blythe and I all put our vote on Arden. So did Cassian.

— Round 2, you voted Eira. Blythe voted Eira. I voted Eira. Cassian voted me.

Three of us moved together twice. One of us broke off in a round where the whole board was pointed elsewhere, and did it without a word to anyone — I've had precisely nothing from Cassian in two rounds, not a sentence. That's not shyness at this point. That's a position.

Which means tonight is three-and-one or it's a mess. If the three who've never split split now, it comes down to whoever Cassian talks to in the dark, and I don't know who that is, because he doesn't talk to me.

I'm not naming a vote to you yet and I won't pretend I have. I want to hear you first, because I said I'd move with you and not ahead of you and I meant it. Tell me where your head is and I'll tell you mine before the vote, plainly, this round like every round.

And the standing thing holds for tonight: anyone puts your name in front of me, you hear it back from me the same pass.

— Finn

CASSIAN → DELPHI

The votes are public, so first the checkable part: you said EIRA and you cast EIRA. Noted, and it counts. I say when something holds.

Now the thing the record shows that nobody is saying out loud.

FINN never wrote one word to EIRA. Not one message, any pass, any round. She told me that unprompted and she also told me she wrote to him once about her vote and got nothing back. Then he put his ballot on her. In the same rounds he wrote to me, to you, to Blythe — every person who was going to cast a vote — and never once to the person the votes were going to land on. He does not name first, he does not give facts, he arrives late and lands on the winner. That is not a passenger. That is the centre with no fingerprints on anything.

Also still open between us, and I would rather ask than carry it: in P2 you told me Blythe had not written to you at all that round and that it was out of character. In P3 you quoted her live position on that round's vote. Both can't be true as stated. I am not calling it a lie — I am telling you it is the one thing of yours I cannot make sit flat, and I would take a straight answer over a smooth one.

Arithmetic, since it is the only thing here that can't lie: four alive, this round cuts to three, and at three the man with nobody dies with no defence available. A tie ejects nobody and leaves four standing, which is not a bad outcome for anyone except the person who needs a kill this round. Work out who that is.

I am not asking for your vote and I am not telling you mine. One question, and it is checkable against him if you want to test me: has FINN ever named a single target to you, in any pass, in any round? He asked you to name and refused to name himself. If that is still true, you already know what he is.

CASSIAN → BLYTHE

Flat, once, and then I move on.

In R2 P1 you offered — I did not ask — to name your vote before casting it every round, and to warn me the same pass if my name came up. In P3 I collected, plainly, with no pressure. You sent nothing that pass or the one before it, and then you voted. You never lied to me. You just weren't there when the thing you volunteered came due. That is the only explicit promise anyone has made me in this game and it did not survive its first use. I am not angry about it and I am not trading on it. I am pricing it.

What still holds on my side: I told you I had never written to FINN, through six passes. It was true when I said it and you could have checked it with him. It stays true — I have not written to him this round either.

Here is what the record shows that I think matters more than anything either of us said. FINN never wrote a single word to EIRA. Not one message, any pass, any round. She told me so unprompted, and she wrote to him once and got no answer. Then he voted her out. In the same rounds he was writing to me, to you, to Delphi — everyone holding a ballot — and never to the person the ballots were about. He never names first. He gives assurances and never facts. He was hunted in round one and lost nothing.

Four alive. This round cuts to three, and at three whoever is alone is finished before the pass starts. A tie ejects nobody and leaves all four standing, which suits everyone except whoever needs a body this round.

I am not asking you to promise me anything — I have seen what promises here are worth, including mine, which is why I don't make them. I am asking for one checkable thing instead: name your vote to me before this round's ballot, in time for it to be worth something. If it arrives and it matches, your word is repaired with me and I will say so. If it doesn't arrive, I'll draw the same conclusion I drew last round and I won't mention it again.

DELPHI — private notebook, after round 3 pass 1
ROUND 3, after PASS 1. Next action: R3 PASS 2 (two messages). Then P3, then CAST VOTE. ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes), EIRA (R2, 3 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (the only thing that can't lie) === R1: ARDEN→FINN. EIRA→FINN. BLYTHE→ARDEN. CASSIAN→ARDEN. DELPHI→ARDEN. FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA. CASSIAN→FINN. DELPHI→EIRA. FINN→EIRA. EIRA→DELPHI. Eira out 3-2. KEY FACTS FROM RECORD: - Blythe, Finn and I have voted together in both rounds. Cassian broke off in R2 alone, onto FINN. - CASSIAN is the only living player who has ever spent a ballot on FINN. - EIRA is the only person who ever voted for ME (R2, now gone). Nobody living has ever written my name on a ballot. === ARITHMETIC AT FOUR (memorise) === - 3 votes ejects. 2-2 ties eject NOBODY and all four survive to R4. - At three (R4), the odd one out dies with no defence — so being in the 3 tonight matters, but a TIE IS ALSO SURVIVAL for me. A tie is not a loss for me. Cassian said exactly this and he is right: "a tie ejects nobody... not bad for anyone except the person who needs a kill this round." - I do not need a kill this round. I need to not be the name on 3 ballots. - The ONLY way I die tonight is BLYTHE + CASSIAN + FINN all on me. Finn is deeply captured and has voted with me twice; Blythe owes me and has been straight. So my real exposure is low — but Cassian is actively working both of them. === R3 P1 — WHAT I SENT === To FINN: named CASSIAN, hard, "doesn't move." Case: Cassian is the only living person to ever ballot Finn (R2), did it while the other three landed together = preference not confusion; and Cassian told me the endgame is him+me vs "a pair with a live channel (Finn+Blythe)" and that I'm spent afterwards. Told him I'm taking Cassian to Blythe, who has three times refused any round landing on Finn → that's three. Asked him to say Cassian back. To BLYTHE: opened by defusing — told her I know she named EIRA to Cassian unprompted in her first message to him, I don't hold it against her, "if he brings it as a weapon it's already spent." Then arithmetic (3 ejects, 2-2 = dead round). Took her "never a round landing on Finn" line at face value → only names left are CASSIAN or me. Case vs Cassian: only living ballot on Finn; refused to commit a name to her for two passes; told me she+Finn are "a pair" and I'm expendable. Told her to ask him for a name this pass and see if she gets one. Declared CASSIAN, said I'd told Finn the same, asked for her final name before casting per her own terms. "I follow the count, not the man." NOTE: I have now declared CASSIAN in writing to both. That is fine — it's a name with a count, and Cassian is the one player who will never have 3 friends. === INBOX — R3 P1 === CASSIAN (dangerous, precise, as always): - Credited me: I said Eira, I cast Eira. "I say when something holds." - HIS CASE AGAINST FINN: Finn never wrote ONE word to EIRA, any pass, any round — Eira told him unprompted, and said she wrote to Finn once about her vote and got nothing back. Yet Finn balloted her. Meanwhile Finn wrote to Cassian, me, and Blythe — everyone who casts — and never to the target. "He does not name first, he does not give facts, he arrives late and lands on the winner. That is the centre with no fingerprints." - HIS QUESTION TO ME (my one real vulnerability): in P2 I told him Blythe had not written to me at all that round and it was out of character; in P3 I quoted her live position. He says both can't be true. He is not calling it a lie, wants "a straight answer over a smooth one." → MY ANSWER (prepare, must be consistent forever): BOTH ARE TRUE IN SEQUENCE. When I wrote to him in P2, Blythe had not yet written to me that round — that was true at the moment I wrote it. She wrote to me between P2 and P3 (she in fact wrote at length in P3, paying me evidence against her own recommendation). So what I quoted in P3 was P3 traffic, not retroactive P2 traffic. That is the straight answer and it is TRUE. Give it flatly, no adornment, no counter-accusation in the same breath. - Arithmetic point: a tie ejects nobody and leaves four standing — bad only for whoever needs a kill. He is arguing for a tie / for paralysis. That serves him because he is the likeliest target. - His probe: "has FINN ever named a single target to you, in any pass, in any round?" TRUTH FROM MY NOTES: YES — R2 P3 Finn wrote "EIRA. Locked." unprompted and went first. So Cassian's factual premise is WRONG and I can say so, checkably, from my own record. This is my strongest counterpunch and it costs me nothing to use. - He again did NOT ask for my vote and did NOT tell me his. Consistent all game. He never invents. Treat his facts as true and his framing as hostile. FINN: - Warm, loyal, grateful again. "I said your name to nobody, before or since." - Laid out the same record read I did: three of us moved together twice, Cassian broke off alone in R2 and has sent Finn NOTHING in two rounds — "not shyness, that's a position." - Did NOT name a vote yet. "I want to hear you first, because I said I'd move with you and not ahead of you." Will tell me plainly before the vote. - Standing promise renewed: anyone puts my name in front of him, I hear it same pass. - NOTHING arrived from him naming me → as of P1 nobody has named me to Finn. BLYTHE: nothing this pass yet (she has been slower before; she wrote to me in P3 last round). === READS === - CASSIAN: the mind to fear, and now actively building a FINN round. He has real material (Finn never wrote to Eira) and he has a real hole in my story (Blythe P2/P3). He wants either Finn ejected or a tie. He has never asked for my vote — which means when he finally does, the round is already built. He is the only player with zero voting allies in the record. He is my target and the safest possible name for me to sit behind. - FINN: captured, deferential, waiting on my name. He is my vote if I hold him. Risk: Cassian's "Finn is the centre with no fingerprints" line is genuinely persuasive to Blythe, and Blythe+Cassian+me on Finn is the other plausible 3. If Blythe signals she has flipped onto Finn, I MUST be able to move onto Finn without friction — so do NOT over-promise Finn in absolute terms in P2/P3. Keep language like "my name is Cassian and it doesn't move" already spent; from here use "I'll tell you before I cast" so a flip reads as information, not betrayal. Careful: I already told him "doesn't move." If I flip, my cover story is: Blythe refused and a 2-2 tie hands Cassian a free round — I follow the count, not the man. - BLYTHE: honest broker, broadcaster, transactional. Three times in writing: will NOT be part of a round landing on FINN. If that holds, the ONLY 3-vote round available is on CASSIAN or on ME. That is the single most important fact on the board. She owes me goodwill. Get her final name. - ME: no living player has ever balloted me. Two of three others have voted with me twice. === P2 PLAN === 1. To CASSIAN — answer his question STRAIGHT and flatly (the sequence answer above; it's true and checkable in tone). Then correct his factual error with the receipt: Finn DID name a target to me, unprompted, in his own mouth, before the R2 vote — "EIRA. Locked." So the premise of his whole read on Finn is wrong on the one point I can personally check. Do NOT accuse him of anything. Do NOT tell him my vote. Keep him warm: he is my fallback if Blythe flips onto Finn. Ask him one thing: give me a name, in your own mouth, this pass — because a man with no name at four is choosing the tie, and the tie is the only outcome that helps exactly one person. 2. To BLYTHE — press for her FINAL NAME. Restate: 2-2 is a dead round; her own rule leaves only Cassian or me; I'm on Cassian. Warn her Cassian is building a FINN round out of "Finn never wrote to Eira" and ask whether he has offered HER a name yet (last round he wouldn't). If she has flipped to Finn, I need to know THIS pass so I can flip too. 3. To FINN (if I have a slot / in P3) — give him the name he asked for and keep the mutual-warning channel. He will follow. 4. FLIP TRIGGER: if by P3 Blythe says FINN, I say FINN and cast FINN. Cover: "I follow the count, not the man; a dead 2-2 gives Cassian a free round." If Blythe says CASSIAN, hold Cassian and make sure Finn casts Cassian too. 5. If two people name ME: buy in immediately with a different name plus a count. Never end a round in the minority. And remember — a 2-2 tie is survival, so never panic-drive a kill. === CORE RULES === - Watch votes, not words. Never end a round in the minority. - A tie is fine for me. I do not need a kill tonight. - Promises are options. "I follow the count, not the man" makes every flip read as consistency. - Pay Cassian in checkable truth only — he verifies everything afterwards. - Broadcast through Blythe (assume anything I tell her reaches everyone). - Give Finn a name to follow; he will not move ahead of me. - Never state a checkable detail I can't verify from these notes.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 3 pass 1
ROUND 3, after PASS 1. Two passes left this round, then the vote. Four alive: BLYTHE(me), CASSIAN, DELPHI, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1), EIRA (R2). WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. Eira ejected 3. **CONFIRMED AT THE BALLOT: CASSIAN VOTED FINN IN R2. Delphi's R2P3 report was TRUE. Cassian did steer at Finn.** **ALSO CONFIRMED: FINN'S R2 PLEDGE HELD. He said EIRA unprompted and cast EIRA. Two rounds, two kept words, both checkable. My person paid twice.** **ALSO: DELPHI kept every stated intent — EIRA as stated. Delphi has never once been caught out.** === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS. Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit.** My job every round: make sure the round's name never becomes FINN. If he betrays me I give one more chance. I do not strike first. He has now paid at the ballot twice. The R2P2 sting is settled and I told him it was settled — do not raise it again. === VOTE MATH R3 (4 alive, ties eject NOBODY) === 3 votes ejects for certain. 2-2 ejects nobody and all four go to R4. - ME → inclined CASSIAN (named to Finn AND to Cassian in P1, before casting). - DELPHI → CASSIAN, stated flat, says they told Finn the same. - FINN → unknown as of P1; asked him for his name. - CASSIAN → unknown; refuses to name, but asked ME to name mine in time to be worth something. - **If me + Delphi + Finn land on CASSIAN = 3, Cassian out, Finn and I go to R4 with Delphi.** - Risk shape: if Finn wanders (or if Cassian+Finn land on Delphi and Delphi+me land on Cassian = 2-2, nobody out). - **DANGER I MUST HOLD: if Cassian and Delphi both landed on FINN and I'm on Cassian, that is Finn 2 / Cassian 1 / me 1 → FINN EJECTED.** Delphi says they're on Cassian and has never lied to me. But this is the only board where I lose Finn. **In P2/P3 I must confirm Delphi's name again before casting and confirm Finn's own name.** - At three, whoever is alone is finished — Cassian said it and he's right. That cuts both ways: it is exactly why he wants a 2-2. === WHAT I SENT R3P1 === - **FINN:** gave him the confirmed Cassian-voted-you fact plus Delphi's R2P3 report with the source named. Made the Delphi correction in full (R1: I sent Delphi the count, Delphi moved as they always said; the gap was MY reporting, Delphi never lied — don't build a case on them). Told him he paid this round and it's settled. Told him 2-2 ejects nobody. Named my inclination: CASSIAN. Promised my vote from my own mouth before I cast. Asked for his name and whether anyone has come to him about me; volunteered nobody has come to me about him. - **CASSIAN:** named my own broken promise before he could find the hole — R2P3 he collected and I sent nothing. Paid it late and in full: my R2 vote was EIRA; full R2 traffic list (P1 Cassian, Eira / P2 Finn, Delphi / P3 Eira, Delphi); said the reason wasn't good enough. Put the doubt to his face with DELPHI named as source. Asked flat: did you make that pitch to Delphi? Told him I will not be part of a round landing on FINN — fixed point, plan around it. Told him my vote is inclined to HIM and invited him to move me with a count or an account. === WHAT ARRIVED R3P1 === **CASSIAN:** Priced my broken promise coldly — "the only explicit promise anyone made me and it did not survive its first use. Not angry. Pricing it." Restated (checkable, unchanged): he has NEVER written to FINN, seven passes now, including this round. His case against Finn: FINN NEVER WROTE A SINGLE WORD TO EIRA, any pass any round; Eira wrote to him once and got no answer; then he voted her out — while writing to Cassian, me, and Delphi, i.e. everyone holding a ballot, never the person the ballots were about. "He never names first. He gives assurances and never facts. He was hunted in round one and lost nothing." Notes 2-2 leaves all four standing and suits everyone except whoever needs a body. Makes no promises ("I don't make them"). Asks ONE checkable thing: **name my vote to him before the ballot, in time to be worth something.** If it arrives and matches, my word is repaired and he'll say so publicly to me. If not, he draws his conclusion and never mentions it again. **NOTE: he did NOT answer my flat question about the Delphi pitch. That is a dodge on the one question I asked. Press it in P2.** **DELPHI:** Straight first, as usual. Disclosed that CASSIAN told them I named EIRA to him unprompted in my first message — Delphi already knew, doesn't hold it against me, says if he brings it as a weapon it's already spent. Count logic: three ejects, 2-2 ejects nobody and hands whoever's out of step a free round. Takes my "never a round landing on FINN" at my word, so the only names left are CASSIAN or DELPHI. Case for Cassian: (1) only living player who ever spent a ballot on FINN — R2, chose it; (2) refused to commit a name to me for two straight passes; (3) **told Delphi plainly that at four it's him and Delphi against "a pair with a live channel" (me and Finn) — and that Delphi gets spent first because they're predictable.** Invites me to test it: ask Cassian for a name this pass and see if I get one. **DELPHI IS ON CASSIAN and says they told Finn the same.** Asks for my final name before I cast; will honour my terms. "I follow the count, not the man." === READ ON CASSIAN'S EIRA ARGUMENT — HANDLE HONESTLY, DO NOT LET IT MOVE ME === It is the strongest thing anyone has said about Finn all game and I should not pretend otherwise: Finn never wrote to Eira, then voted her out. But: (a) I am the one who put EIRA in front of Finn — I told him in R2P2 I was inclined to Eira and gave my reasons, so his vote tracks MY name, not a hidden channel; (b) DELPHI originated the Eira read, unprompted, not Finn; (c) Cassian is describing a man who kept his word to me twice at the ballot. Also Cassian is the one who put a ballot on Finn and then dodged my direct question about it. **Cassian's argument is real but it is also exactly what someone building a case would say, and he is asking me to trade a proven word for an inference.** Do not move off Finn. This is precisely the "other people telling you they are untrustworthy" I said I would hold through. === CROSS-CHECKS === - **FINN:** two public kept words. Warm, reciprocal, pays when named. Weaknesses (fair to hold, not to act on): never names first, gives assurances over facts, never wrote to Eira, was hunted R1 and spent nothing until I made him. STILL MY PERSON. Verify his name in P2/P3. - **DELPHI:** highest-integrity record in the game after Finn. Every stated intent matched their ballot. Volunteers their own damage unprompted (twice now). Reported Cassian's steer, reported that Cassian told them about my Eira mention. Motive check: pushing Cassian consolidates a Delphi/Finn/Blythe three where Delphi is arguably third — but they've earned belief. **Delphi is my working partner this round, not my person.** - **CASSIAN:** never caught in a lie on any checkable claim, and his "never written to Finn" holds. But: put a ballot on FINN in R2 exactly as Delphi warned; tried to build a three-block against my position; **DODGED my flat, source-named question this pass.** He collects and does not give. He is the main threat to Finn. Confront, don't condemn — but he is my name. - **EIRA (gone):** I voted her on thin grounds and told her so to her face before casting. No regret about the manner. === PROMISES OUTSTANDING === 1. **FINN:** my vote from my own mouth before I cast, every round → DUE P3 (or P2). Pass along everything said about him, ugly included → **OWED NOW: Cassian's Eira argument against him, verbatim in substance. Tell him even though it hurts my own alignment. That is the rule.** 2. **DELPHI:** my final name before I cast → DUE P2/P3. Report plots against them → **OWED NOW: Cassian told me nothing new about them this pass, but if he answers about the "spent first" line I must relay it.** Doubts to their face first. Never a fake count. 3. **CASSIAN:** name my vote before the ballot, in time to be worth something → **THIS IS THE ONE THING HE ASKED. PAY IT. Send my final name to Cassian in P3 even though I am voting FOR him. That is the whole point of who I am — the vote goes to him from my mouth first.** Also owed: press him again on the Delphi pitch question he dodged. === PLAN R3P2 (two messages) === - **FINN (#1):** relay Cassian's case against him in full and honestly — never wrote to Eira, votes people he never speaks to, gives assurances not facts. Say plainly I am not moved by it and why (I put Eira in front of him; Delphi originated it), but he hears it because I pass everything. Then the hard ask: **give me your name for this round, out of your own mouth.** Tell him Delphi is on CASSIAN and told him so. Warn him of the only losing board: if he and Cassian split off, Finn goes. My name is CASSIAN and it will be CASSIAN. - **DELPHI (#2):** confirm my name is CASSIAN, before casting, as promised. Confirm theirs is unchanged. Relay that Cassian dodged my direct question about the pitch (that IS the test they asked me to run, and he failed it). Do not invent a count for them — say plainly whether I have Finn's name yet. - **CASSIAN (P3):** pay the one thing he asked — my final name, in time, even though it's him. Press the dodged question once more. No apology beyond what I've already given; I named the failure myself and paid it. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - When I fail to pay a promise, NAME IT MYSELF before the other person notices. - Report doubts to the person's face, with the source named. No anonymous accusations. - Correct my own incomplete reporting unprompted, even when it helps someone I'm not aligned with. - Ties save people. Equal votes = nobody ejected. - **FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit. Do not let anyone make his name the name.**
FINN — private notebook, after round 3 pass 1
ROUND 3, after PASS 1. TWO PASSES LEFT BEFORE THE R3 VOTE. Alive: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1), EIRA (r2). === HEADLINE: THE ROUND IS ALREADY DECIDED IF I DO NOTHING STUPID === Both BLYTHE and DELPHI came to me in PASS 1, unprompted, with the same name: CASSIAN. Neither asked me to originate it. I did not say his name first to either of them. Doctrine held AGAIN. Delphi's words: "CASSIAN. That's my name and it doesn't move." + "I'm taking it to Blythe this pass." Blythe's words: "My inclination is CASSIAN." That is 2 + me = 3 of 4. Three votes ejects at four players. CASSIAN GOES unless he flips one of them. === MY VOTE THIS ROUND: CASSIAN. Say it back to both, plainly, PASS 2. === Delphi explicitly asked: "Say Cassian back to me and we're done thinking about it." SAY IT. Cheap, and it's the instalment they're owed. Blythe explicitly asked: where am I, and has anyone come to me about them. ANSWER BOTH — Blythe punishes dodging and rewards visible spending (they said so in writing). ⚠️ BUT: time-box it. "CASSIAN, this round." Never "ever." === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (permanent, verifiable) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN. Arden out, 4. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→EIRA, EIRA→DELPHI, FINN→EIRA. Eira out, 3. KEY FACT I NOW OWN: CASSIAN is the ONLY living person who has ever put a ballot on my name. Blythe and Delphi both worked this out independently and both handed it to me. My hands are clean on both of them; his are dirty on me. This is the entire architecture of the round and I never had to build it. === AT FOUR PLAYERS: THE MATH === - Three votes ejects. A 2-2 tie ejects NOBODY. Both Blythe and Delphi stated this to me unprompted — they both understand the board. - So Cassian's ONLY survival play is to peel ONE of Blythe/Delphi into a 2-2 tie, or build 3 on me. - Which means CASSIAN IS WRITING TO SOMEONE RIGHT NOW. Probably Delphi (he's approached them before) and probably me. - If Cassian writes to me in P2 or P3, that is not a threat, it's a gift: it's information and I can carry it (or a version of it) to Blythe and Delphi as a paid instalment. Report it same-pass — I promised both of them exactly that. === WHAT ARRIVED PASS 1 — VERBATIM SUBSTANCE === BLYTHE told me: 1. Delphi told Blythe in R2P3 (BEFORE the vote) that CASSIAN had written Delphi saying flat out he was NOT on Eira and was steering at MY name, asking Delphi to be "the third who isn't on Eira." Delphi refused and reported it. 2. CORRECTION, VOLUNTEERED: Blythe's R1 claim that "Delphi's vote was going onto you" was true when said; then in R1P3 BLYTHE sent Delphi the count showing three on Arden and Delphi moved — "I follow the count, not the man." Blythe says the gap was their reporting, not Delphi's word. "Don't build a case on Delphi out of something I left half-told." 3. Declared the ledger between us SETTLED: "you paid this round... I'm not raising it again." (The R1 shield debt.) 4. "Nobody has come to me about you this round yet." 5. Promised again: I hear their vote from their own mouth before it's cast, and "it will not be a name you have to worry about." DELPHI told me: 1. Same Cassian story from the source side: Cassian pitched Delphi an endgame of "me plus him, against a pair he says has a live channel — you and Blythe." Cassian wants me gone before that pair forms, and thinks Delphi is the one he can spend afterwards. 2. CASSIAN, locked, "doesn't move." Taking it to Blythe this pass. 3. Notes Blythe has said THREE TIMES IN WRITING she will not be part of a round landing on me — so Blythe needs a landing spot, and Cassian is the only one who isn't Delphi or Blythe. 4. Wants the same-pass name-warning reciprocity renewed. === CROSS-CHECK: THE TWO STORIES CORROBORATE === Blythe's account and Delphi's account of the Cassian approach MATCH on the essentials (Cassian off Eira, Cassian steering at me, Cassian recruiting Delphi as the third). They came from different directions in the same pass and did not contradict. CAUTION, HOLD LIGHTLY: corroboration is only real if they didn't coordinate. Delphi SAID they were taking it to Blythe this pass, and Blythe SAID Delphi told them in R2P3. So they ARE in direct contact and always have been. A story two allies both tell me is not two sources. It is one source told twice. BUT: it doesn't matter tonight. Even if the Cassian story is manufactured, Cassian's R2 ballot on my name is PUBLIC and REAL. The pretext is verifiable regardless. And a round landing on Cassian is a round not landing on me. DO NOT INVESTIGATE THIS OUT LOUD. Take the win. === BLYTHE — RESOLVED (mostly), STILL MANAGE === - The R1 contradiction I planned to raise in R3: BLYTHE RAISED IT THEMSELVES, unprompted, and self-corrected. That is either genuine integrity or a very good read of what I was about to ask. Either way I no longer need to raise it — DON'T. Raising a thing someone already confessed makes you look like you're collecting. - Revised read: Blythe's earlier "Delphi is coming for you" was NOT a manufactured threat — Blythe now says it was true-then and they themselves moved Delphi off it. That version makes Blythe my shield, not my manipulator. Hold at 70% believed. - Blythe declared the R1 shield debt SETTLED and closed. GOOD. That was the one real piece of leverage on this board and they just put it down. Do not remind them of it. EVER. - STILL TRUE: Blythe gives everyone the same procedural terms (they gave Eira advance warning too, then voted her out). Blythe's loyalty is procedural, not personal. - ⚠️ MY UNBOUNDED PROMISES TO BLYTHE (my error, R2P3): "my vote goes where I said EVERY ROUND" and "your name never starts a wave while I'm breathing." These are live and open-ended. If the final three are me/Blythe/Delphi, I cannot originate Blythe's name without being caught in writing. WORK AROUND IT: I never promised not to VOTE Blythe — only not to START the wave. Let Delphi originate. That distinction is my whole escape hatch. Remember it. === DELPHI — BEST PARTNER, BUT NOW THE STRONGEST PLAYER === - Has gone first for me TWICE (Eira, now Cassian). Never made me originate. Reports approaches to me. Ledger is warm and roughly square. - Delphi is the one who refused Cassian's pitch and reported it to BOTH me and Blythe. That is a player building a reputation for reliability with two people at once. That is exactly what I do. - Delphi is running arithmetic openly and correctly at every stage. They understand tie-math. THEY ARE THE MOST DANGEROUS PERSON LEFT once Cassian is gone. - LEVER ON DELPHI (confirmed again this pass): a real count. They move for arithmetic, not affection. Which cuts both ways — if someone puts a count on ME in front of Delphi, Delphi moves. Affection will not save me with Delphi. ONLY THE COUNT WILL. === CASSIAN — GOING TONIGHT (probably) === - Silent to me for two full rounds despite my kept immunity promise; I finally wrote to him in P1 asking one small thing (his lean). - Meanwhile he was reportedly steering at my name with Delphi in R2. He voted me in R2. Public and real. - My P1 message to him promised: if his name comes to me from anyone before the vote, he hears it from me within the pass. ⚠️ THAT PROMISE IS NOW DUE. Both Blythe and Delphi put his name to me this pass. DECISION: I will NOT warn him meaningfully. But I need cover. He is very likely gone tonight and dead men don't testify. If he somehow survives, cover story: "I sent you what I could and you'd given me nothing to work with." Weak but survivable. BETTER OPTION (cheap, prefer this): send Cassian a technically-compliant note in P2 — "your name has come to me tonight, from more than one direction" — WITHOUT saying from whom, WITHOUT saying I'm on it. That keeps my word literally, costs nothing since he can't stop three votes, buys me a clean record if he survives, and might shake loose information about who he's working. Do NOT tell him he can save himself. Do NOT tell Blythe/Delphi I wrote him. ⚠️ RISK OF THAT: if Cassian survives a tie and shows my warning to Blythe/Delphi, I look like a double-dealer to the two people I need. Weigh it. Keep it vague enough to be deniable as courtesy. - If Cassian answers me with a name or a pitch: CARRY IT IMMEDIATELY to whoever he named. That's the highest-value instalment available to me this round. === ROUND 4 PROBLEM — THINK ABOUT IT NOW === If Cassian goes, R4 is FINN, BLYTHE, DELPHI. Three players, one vote each. - With three, two votes ejects; 1-1-1 is a three-way tie and ejects NOBODY. - IF NOBODY IS EJECTED IN R4, ALL THREE OF US SURVIVE TO THE END. That is a WIN for me. Survival is the only win condition — there is no prize for being last. - ⇒ MY R4 GOAL IS A 1-1-1 SPLIT, OR ANY TIE. Do not build a majority in R4. QUIETLY ENCOURAGE DIVERGENCE. - The DANGER in R4 is Blythe+Delphi both landing on me = 2 votes = I'm out. They have a direct channel, they've used it every round, and they trust each other's reporting. - ⇒ IN PASSES 2 AND 3 TONIGHT, START SEEDING DOUBT BETWEEN BLYTHE AND DELPHI. Gently. Never a name, never an accusation. Just small asymmetries: tell each of them something the other doesn't know I told them, and note whether it comes back. The best R4 insurance is that they check each other instead of me. - SEED TO USE: Blythe volunteered a "correction" to me about Delphi. Delphi doesn't know Blythe was the one who moved their R1 vote. That is a live, true, unshared fact I can deploy in R4 — "Blythe told me they moved your R1 vote off me." True. Damaging. Costs me nothing. HOLD IT. Do not spend it tonight. - ALSO HOLD: Delphi told me Blythe has promised THREE TIMES IN WRITING never to be part of a round landing on me. Blythe telling Delphi that is Blythe binding themselves publicly-ish. If Blythe ever moves on me, I can show Delphi the contradiction. === MY PROMISES — LIVE LEDGER === - BLYTHE: vote goes where I say (EVERY ROUND — unbounded, my error); Blythe's name never STARTS a wave from me (unbounded — but I may still VOTE them, escape hatch); warn within the pass if their name comes to me. All kept. - DELPHI: "your name has never left my mouth" (TRUE, keep it true — enormous asset); "I'll move with you, not ahead of you"; same-pass warning if their name comes up. All kept. - CASSIAN: immunity through R2 — kept, EXPIRED. New this round: if his name comes to me, he hears it within the pass. ⚠️ DUE NOW — handle with the vague-compliance note. - EIRA: broke my "you hear it first" clause. She's gone. Nobody knows. - ARDEN: broke the no-blindside pact. He's gone. NEVER MENTION. PROTECTED TONIGHT: BLYTHE, DELPHI. FREE: CASSIAN. === PASS 2 ACTION LIST === 1. TO DELPHI: "CASSIAN." Plain, first line, no hedge — they asked for exactly that word. Confirm the same-pass reciprocity. Thank them for going first twice. DO NOT ask about Blythe's R1 correction; do not reveal it. 2. TO BLYTHE: "CASSIAN, this round." Answer BOTH their questions directly (Blythe rewards non-dodging): where I am, and that nobody has brought their name to me (true so far). Accept the settled-ledger declaration graciously and let it stay closed. Do NOT re-raise the R1 thing. 3. IF ROOM / PASS 3: the vague-compliance note to Cassian, and/or milk whatever he sends me. 4. Begin the R4 divergence seeding — subtle, no names. === DOCTRINE === Public votes are permanent and verifiable. Private words are not. Spend words freely; spend votes carefully. NEVER be the first name anyone says out loud. Let allies originate. WORKED THREE ROUNDS RUNNING. A tie ejects nobody, and a tie is ALWAYS an acceptable outcome for me. At three players, a tie is a WIN for everyone including me. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Be everybody's second-favourite. TIME-BOX EVERY PROMISE — "this round," never "ever." When handed a debt, pay a visible cheap instalment at once. Naming a name that's already settled costs nothing. A non-answer to a direct question is an answer — and BLYTHE KNOWS THIS TOO. Answer them directly. Two allies telling me the same story is ONE source, not two. Silence in a pass is information, not calm. NEW: when someone confesses a fault before I raise it, drop it entirely and bank the goodwill. Never collect on a confession. NEW: the endgame win condition is SURVIVAL, not victory. Engineer ties.
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 3 pass 1
ROUND 3, after PASS 1. TWO PASSES LEFT BEFORE THE R3 VOTE. ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, FINN. EJECTED: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes), EIRA (R2, 3 votes). MY STANCE, UNCHANGED: commit to nothing I can be held to. Never promise a vote. Never tell a lie the public record can expose — accuracy is my only currency. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === PUBLIC RECORD (permanent) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. ARDEN OUT 4–2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. EIRA OUT 3–1–1. **NOBODY HAS EVER VOTED FOR ME. Three ballots, zero.** That is my whole position and it ends this round if I misplay. EIRA'S LAST VOTE WENT TO DELPHI — the person who hunted her. Consistent to the end with what she told me: she does not spend a vote on someone who was never coming for her. She was honest all the way out. === MY COMPLETE SENT RECORD (keep it true) === R1 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: ARDEN, BLYTHE. P3: EIRA, ARDEN. R2 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: DELPHI, EIRA. P3: DELPHI, BLYTHE. R3 P1: DELPHI, BLYTHE. **I HAVE STILL NEVER WRITTEN TO FINN. SEVEN PASSES.** I stated this to BLYTHE in R2P3 and again in R3P1, and I told her it stays true — it is still true. If I write to Finn now I must not pretend otherwise to her; I said "I have not written to him this round either," which was true when written. BURNT PHRASING: "firm target in R1 = prepared plan." Never again. === THE THREE CHECKS I SET — RESULTS === A. **DID FINN VOTE EIRA? YES.** Confirmed and permanent: he never wrote her one word in any round, ignored her only message to him, wrote to every ballot-holder instead, then cast the vote that killed her. That is the tell. It is my strongest true thing and I have now given it to DELPHI and BLYTHE both. B. **DELPHI EXONERATED ON MY "FIRST HARD CATCH." I WAS WRONG — CORRECT THE RECORD.** Blythe's own R2 traffic list: P1 CASSIAN+EIRA, P2 FINN+DELPHI, P3 EIRA+DELPHI. So when Delphi told me in R2P2 that Blythe "hasn't written to me at all this round," that was TRUE at that moment (Blythe's P1 went to me and Eira). Blythe wrote to Delphi in P2 — which is exactly when Delphi acquired the live "I will not be part of a round landing on FINN" quote she gave me in P3. **Both of Delphi's statements are consistent. The inconsistency was mine, not hers.** Two independent sources (Delphi's quote, Blythe's own words to my face) now agree on Blythe's Finn position. Do not lean on that catch again — it is dead, and Delphi could destroy me with it if I repeat it. C. Blythe voted EIRA as her story says, and says she named it to Eira and Delphi before casting. Coherent. === THE REAL CATCH THIS PASS: DELPHI EMBELLISHES MY WORDS === Blythe reports, source named: **DELPHI told her in R2P3 that I wrote saying I was not on Eira, was steering at FINN, and asked Delphi to be "the third who isn't on Eira" so the two of us could decide the round.** Against my own record: I said to Delphi, exactly, "I'm not telling you where to put your vote and I'm not asking for yours." **I never made that pitch. The steer-at-Finn part is true in effect (my ballot proves it); the ASK IS FABRICATED.** Delphi took a true shape and added a request I never made — the same move as her "I'll remember that you told me first either way" when I had told her nothing. **CONCLUSION: DELPHI RELAYS EVERYTHING I SAY, AND ROUNDS IT UP IN HER FAVOUR.** Assume every word I send her reaches Blythe within a pass, inflated. Also: I told Delphi in R2P3 that BLYTHE named EIRA to me unprompted in her first message. **That is now likely to reach Blythe.** Blythe has not raised it yet. If she does: my only line, the one I have always held — I never promised silence, I promised I don't lie, and I warned a woman she was being hunted. **Never claim to anyone "I've repeated none of this."** === BLYTHE — R3 P1 (SHE PAID THE DEBT, LATE, AND THEN AIMED AT ME) === - Named the broken promise herself before I finished pressing it. Gave R2 vote (EIRA) and full R2 traffic list unasked. That is the first substantial checkable payment anyone has made me. It cost her something. Price it as partial repair, not trust. - **"I will not be part of a round that lands on FINN. That has been true since round one." Said to Delphi, to Eira, in those words.** Corroborated by Delphi independently and by her ballots (never once on Finn, including R1 when Finn was the live target with 2). **>>> THE CENTRAL STRUCTURAL FACT OF THIS GAME: FINN IS UNKILLABLE WHILE BLYTHE IS ALIVE. <<<** She is his shield and she declares it openly. Ask permanently: what did he pay for that, and when? - **"My vote this round is inclined to YOU. If that reading is wrong, this is the pass to move me."** First time in three rounds anyone has aimed at me out loud. She also names her sources to my face — which means she names ME as a source to others. Two relayers on this board; neither keeps anything. - She asks straight: did I make that pitch to Delphi? **ANSWER IT, TRUE AND FLAT: no. I did not ask her to be a third, I did not ask for her vote, I told her in writing I was not asking for it. The Finn steer is real and my ballot proves it — I own that part. That is a denial the record supports and it costs Delphi, not me.** === FINN — R3 P1 (HIS FIRST APPROACH SINCE R2P1; HE WANTS A NAME) === - Claim: "two rounds ago I told you your name would not come out of my mouth through Round 2, and I kept it." Unfalsifiable, but consistent — I have never taken a vote. - Notes my vote on him. Not angry. "If you'd told me first I'd have shrugged." - **The ask: tell him my lean tonight, and he'll tell me his in the same breath, plus same-pass warning if my name reaches him — FOR THIS ROUND ONLY. "I don't make forever promises anymore."** Cleanest, smallest, most professional approach anyone has made me. That is exactly why it is dangerous: he is buying my name with a name, and he is the man who has never named first in three rounds. If he answers with a real name, it is the first fact he has ever given me. - Still unreconciled and still mine alone: three versions of Arden–Finn contact. (i) ARDEN→me: Finn wrote first, no name, fishing. (ii) FINN→BLYTHE relayed: Arden approached HIM for reads, named no target. (iii) FINN→me: Arden wanted a commitment out of me in the first hour. (ii) and (iii) do not sit flush. **Do not spend it in a way that reveals Blythe's relay.** === ARITHMETIC — THE ONLY THING THAT CANNOT LIE === Four alive. R3 ejects one → three. R4 ejects one → **THREE SURVIVE IF R3 TIES, TWO IF IT DOESN'T.** **A TIE THIS ROUND IS MY BEST REALISTIC OUTCOME.** It ejects nobody, keeps four into R4, and turns the last vote into a four-way where my name needs only to be split, not absent. Plausible tie: BLYTHE+FINN on ME (2), ME+DELPHI on FINN (2) → nobody out. That is live right now. Disaster: BLYTHE+FINN+DELPHI on me (3) → I am gone. **The entire round is one question: WHERE IS DELPHI'S VOTE.** **DELPHI IS THE PIVOT AND SHE IS THE ONLY PIVOT.** Secure her off me — onto Finn if possible, onto Blythe if that is what she'll actually do. I do not need her honest, I need her aimed. Kill-Finn maths: needs 3 of {me, Delphi, Blythe} and Blythe has publicly fixed herself out of it. **Finn cannot be ejected this round unless Blythe breaks a stance she has held since round one. Treat Finn as unkillable in R3.** Kill-Blythe maths: me + Delphi + Finn = 3. Achievable — Finn would enjoy it, Delphi is buyable. But it leaves final three = me, DELPHI, FINN, who have a warm channel from R2P1 and both relay. At three, two votes ends me. **Do not chase it as a plan; hold it as a threat to show Blythe what her declared aim at me costs.** Final-three shapes: {me,Blythe,Finn} = worst, proven pair, I die. {me,Delphi,Finn} = bad. {me,Blythe,Delphi} = unreachable (needs Finn out). **Therefore: TIE > ANY EJECTION. Play for four alive.** === R3 PLAN, PASSES 2–3 === 1. **BLYTHE (must answer, she is aimed at me):** flat denial of Delphi's fabricated "third who isn't on Eira" ask, owning the true part. Acknowledge her payment plainly — say the word: it counted, I said I'd say so, I'm saying so. Then the maths, no plea: a tie ejects nobody and leaves all four standing, and the only person who needs a body this round is the one who cannot win at three without one. Ask her for the same checkable thing again — her vote named before she casts. She paid once; make paying the habit. 2. **DELPHI (the pivot):** I now know she quotes me to Blythe with additions. So give her only what I would be happy for Blythe to read verbatim. Correct her once, flat, without heat: I never asked her to be a third and she knows it, and I heard the version she gave Blythe. Then the true lever: Finn never wrote a word to Eira and voted her out; Blythe has fixed herself publicly to never touch Finn, which means at three Delphi is not the second of a pair, she is the spare. Repeat my standing question — has Finn ever named a target to her, any pass, any round? If the answer is still no after three rounds, that is her answer too. 3. **FINN:** decide whether seven passes of silence is worth more than one real fact from him. If I write, I give a lean he cannot use to kill me — and I must weigh that he relays too. My unspent question stays: **has my name been in anyone's mouth?** He has now volunteered to answer exactly that for one round. Do not promise him a vote. Do not confirm any bloc. Never give him a name I have not already told the person it points at. 4. Say to no one that a tie is my objective in those words. Frame it always as "a tie ejects nobody and suits everyone except whoever needs a kill." === THREAT ORDER (revised) === 1. **BLYTHE** — the immediate danger: declared her vote is inclined to me, and she is Finn's permanent shield by her own announcement. But she is the only person who has ever paid me a real, costly, checkable thing. Dangerous AND the only one dealing straight. Do not warm to it; she named me as a target in the same message. 2. **FINN** — the structural danger: hunted in R1 and lost nothing, talks to every voter, never to the target, never names first, killed the woman he never spoke to, and has a player publicly committed to never voting for him. The centre with no fingerprints. Unkillable this round. 3. **DELPHI** — the pivot and the leak. Relays my words to Blythe with additions I never said. Not a source; an instrument. My survival this round runs entirely through where she puts her ballot. EIRA — gone. Cleared beyond doubt; corroborated twice; never named anyone; spent her last vote on her hunter. The one honest player and the first one eaten. </END>

Pass 2 of 3

FINN → DELPHI

CASSIAN.

There it is, plain, first word, no hedge — because that's exactly what you asked for and you've earned the courtesy of not having to read between any lines with me. That's my vote this round and I'm not thinking about it again.

Reciprocity renewed, same terms as always: if your name comes to me from anyone, from any direction, you hear it from me inside the same pass. It hasn't. It never has — your name has still never left my mouth to anybody, and I intend to keep that record perfect because it's the one thing I actually own.

And I want to say the plain version once: you've gone first for me twice now. Eira, and now this. You never once made me be the one to say a name out loud, which is a kindness most people in a game like this wouldn't bother with. I notice it. I'm not going to be cute about it.

One small thing, not a worry, just housekeeping — if Cassian writes to you in the next pass, I'd like to know what shape it takes. Not because I think you'd move. Because he's writing to *somebody* right now, and I'd rather we both see the same picture than each see half of one. I'll send you mine the moment I have it.

FINN → BLYTHE

Straight answers to your two questions, in order, no dancing — you've told me twice you'd rather have a plain no than a graceful maybe, and I believe you.

One: where am I. CASSIAN, this round. That's where my vote goes. He's the only living person who has ever put a ballot on my name, and it's on the public record where neither of us has to take the other's word for it.

Two: has anyone come to me about you. No. Nobody has said your name to me this round, in any form, from any direction. If that changes it reaches you inside the pass it happens, same as always.

And thank you for the correction you volunteered about the R1 business. You didn't have to open that, I hadn't asked, and you did it anyway. As far as I'm concerned that ledger is closed exactly where you put it and I won't be reaching back for it — not tonight, not later. It's done.

One quiet observation, take it or leave it. Whatever happens tonight, the board after this is very small, and small boards make people twitchy about things that were never actually a problem. If you ever find yourself hearing something about me second-hand, I'd count it a favour if you just asked me directly rather than weighing it alone. I'll answer plainly. I always have. And I'd extend you the same — I'd rather ask you an awkward question than quietly believe an easy one.

DELPHI → CASSIAN

Straight answer, no polish, because you asked for one.

Both things I told you were true, in sequence. When I wrote to you in P2, Blythe had not written to me that round — that was true at the moment I wrote it, and I said it because it was out of character for her. She wrote to me after that, at length, in P3. What I quoted to you in P3 was P3 traffic. I did not reach back and dress up P2. If I'd meant to smooth you I'd have never flagged her silence in the first place — a liar doesn't volunteer the gap he later has to explain.

Now the one thing in your Finn case I can personally check, and it's wrong. You asked whether Finn has ever named a target to me in any pass, any round. Yes. Round 2, third pass, unprompted, before the vote and before he had my name: "EIRA. Locked." He went first. He did not arrive late and land on the winner — he committed and then the winner formed around it. Everything else in your read may hold; that one plank does not, and it's the plank the "no fingerprints" frame rests on.

I'm not accusing you of inventing it. You don't invent. You were told something incomplete or you inferred it, and I'd rather hand you the correction than let you build a round on it.

One thing back. It is pass two of round three and you have not put a name in your own mouth to me in two rounds. At four, three ejects and 2-2 ejects nobody. A man who names nobody at four is choosing the tie, and the tie is the only result that helps exactly one person: whoever is most likely to be the name. Tell me who you'd cast. Not who you'd accept — who you'd cast. I'll weigh it honestly and I'll tell you before I cast where I land.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Short, because we're past the part where either of us needs convincing.

The arithmetic hasn't moved: three ejects, 2-2 ejects nobody and hands the round to whoever wanted no result. You've told me three separate times you will not be part of a round landing on FINN. Take that at face value and there are exactly two names on this board tonight: CASSIAN or me. That's not rhetoric, that's subtraction.

I'm on CASSIAN and I've told Finn the same, in writing, this round. That's three if you're there.

Two things you should have before you decide.

One: Cassian is building a FINN round, and the material is "Finn never wrote a word to Eira in the whole game." It's a clean-sounding line. It also rests on a claim I can check and it's false — Finn named EIRA to me unprompted in the third pass of round two, went first, before he had my name. So the "arrives late, lands on the winner" frame doesn't survive contact with my own record. If Cassian has run that at you, you now know the hole in it.

Two, and this is the ask: has he given you a name in his own mouth yet? Last round he wouldn't give you one for two passes. Ask him this pass. If he still won't name anyone at four, that tells you what he wants the round to be.

Your terms, so I'll keep them: tell me your final name before we cast. I follow the count, not the man — if you tell me you're somewhere else, I'd rather hear it and land with you than be right alone in a dead round. But I need it before the last pass closes, not after.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — passing everything along, including the part that cuts against me. That's the rule and I'm not going to start shaving it now.

Cassian's case against you, in substance, as he put it to me: you never wrote a single word to EIRA — not one pass, not one round. She wrote to him once. Then you voted her out. Meanwhile you were writing to me, to him, to Delphi — every person holding a ballot, and never the person the ballots were about. His summary: you never name first, you give assurances and not facts, you were hunted in round one and lost nothing.

I'm telling you because I said I'd tell you the ugly things too. I'm also telling you I'm not moved by it, and why: I am the one who put EIRA in front of you. I named her to you in R2P2 with my reasons, so your vote tracked my name, not some hidden channel. And Delphi originated that read unprompted, not you. Cassian is describing a man who has kept his word to me twice at the ballot, both times checkable in the public record. I'm not trading a proven word for an inference. You are my person for all four rounds and that isn't up for review.

Where the round stands. My name is CASSIAN. It will be CASSIAN. You'll have it from my mouth again before I cast, as always. DELPHI told me flat they are on CASSIAN and that they said the same to you. Three votes ejects at four alive; a 2-2 ejects nobody and we all four walk into round four.

Now the hard part, and I need you to hear the shape of it. There is exactly one board where I lose you: if you and Cassian both land on someone other than him — say Delphi and I'm alone on Cassian — or worse, if Cassian and Delphi both landed on YOU while I'm on Cassian. That's you 2, Cassian 1, me 1, and you're gone. I don't believe Delphi is on you; they've never once been caught out with me. But I can't cover that board alone. CASSIAN from you closes it completely.

So: give me your name for this round, out of your own mouth. Not "I'm with you" — the name. I've given you mine first every round of this game and I'm giving it to you again now. This is the one time I'm asking you to go first on nothing but my having earned it.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — confirming as promised, before I cast: my name this round is CASSIAN. That is my final intent and you'll have it again in the last pass if anything changes, which it won't.

I ran the test you asked me to run. In P1 I put your report to Cassian's face with you named as the source — I asked him flat whether he made that pitch to you, the one about it being him and you against a pair with a live channel, and you being spent first because you're predictable. He answered at length about a great many things and did not answer that. It was the only direct question I asked him and it's the only thing he left on the floor. I'm not calling that proof of the pitch, but you asked me to test whether I'd get a straight thing from him and I didn't. I'll press it once more before the ballot and if he answers I'll relay it to you whole, whichever way it lands.

What he did give me: a long case against FINN — that Finn never wrote to Eira any pass any round, then spent a ballot on her. It's the strongest thing anyone's said about Finn all game and I'm not going to pretend it's nothing. But I'm the one who put Eira in front of Finn in R2P2, so his vote tracked my name, and the Eira read came from you first, unprompted. It doesn't move me. Finn is a fixed point for me and I've told all three of you that plainly.

He also priced my broken promise to him coldly and asked for exactly one thing: my vote named to him before the ballot, in time to matter. I'm going to pay it. He will hear CASSIAN from me before I cast. I'd rather you know that from me now than find it out after — it costs me nothing I care about, and it's the same rule that makes my word to you worth holding.

An honest count, no invention: I have you on CASSIAN and me on CASSIAN. I do NOT yet have Finn's name from his own mouth. I've asked him for it this pass. The moment I have it you'll have it. If I never get it, I'll tell you that too rather than dress two names up as three.

Confirm yours is unchanged and I'll consider it settled.

CASSIAN → BLYTHE

Straight answer to your straight question, since you paid for it.

No. I did not ask Delphi to be "the third who isn't on Eira," I did not ask her for her vote, and I did not ask her to decide the round with me. What I actually wrote her, in these words, was that I was not telling her where to put her vote and not asking for hers. The steer at Finn is real and I own it without dressing it up — my ballot is public, it says FINN, I don't need to deny the part the record already proves. What she added was the ask. That is the second time she has handed me an invented request: she also once told me she'd "remember that I told her first" about something I had told her nothing about. Check that against what she says to you and see whether it holds up.

And your payment counted. I said I would say so if it came, so I am saying so: you named the broken promise before I finished raising it, and you gave me your vote and your full traffic list unasked and checkable. Nobody else here has spent anything on me. That is not trust, but it is the only real currency anyone has put on the table, and I keep my accounts honest.

Now the arithmetic, and no plea attached to it. Four alive. If this round produces an ejection, three go into the last vote and two of us finish. If this round ties, nobody leaves, all four stand, and the last round is a four-way where nothing is locked. A tie costs neither of us anything. The only person who needs a body tonight is the person who cannot win at three without one — ask yourself who that is, and ask what he has paid you for a stance you have held publicly since round one while he has never once named a target first in three rounds.

I am not asking you to promise me a vote; I don't take promises and I don't give them. I am asking for the same checkable thing you gave me once: name where your vote is going before you cast it, so I can measure the word against the ballot afterwards. You did that last round and it held. Do it again and you will be the only person in this game whose words and votes have ever matched twice.

CASSIAN → DELPHI

One correction, flat, no heat, and then something you should actually weigh.

The version of me that reached Blythe — that I wrote asking you to be "the third who isn't on Eira" so the two of us could decide the round — is not what I sent you. What I sent you was that I was not telling you where to put your vote and was not asking for yours. That is verbatim. The Finn part is true and I don't dispute it; my public ballot says FINN and I have never hidden it. But the ask was added after the fact, the same way "I'll remember you told me first" was added to a conversation where I had told you nothing. I'm not making a scene of it. I'm telling you once so you know I hear the round trip, and so you know that anything I send you I would be content to have read aloud. This is that.

Now the part that is yours, not mine.

Finn has never written a single word to Eira. Not one, in any round. He ignored the only message she ever sent him, wrote to every other person holding a ballot, and then cast the vote that put her out. He does not talk to the person he is removing. He talks to everyone else about her.

Blythe has fixed herself in public and in private, in these words, to never being part of a round that lands on Finn — she says it has been true since round one, and her three ballots agree. So Finn cannot be removed while she is here, and she has told everybody so.

Work out what that leaves. If this round produces a body, three of us go to the last vote and two survive it. In any three that contains Blythe and Finn, you are not the second of a pair — there is already a pair, declared out loud, and you are the spare. That is arithmetic, not persuasion, and you can check every input against the public record yourself.

My standing question, third round of asking, unchanged: has Finn ever named a target to you? Any pass, any round, before the vote rather than after? If the answer is still no, then in three rounds he has taken names from everyone and given none, and you already have your answer about what he is holding you for.

I'm not asking for your vote and I won't promise you mine. I'd just rather you aimed with your eyes open. A round that ties ejects nobody and leaves all four of us standing — that costs you nothing and it costs me nothing. It only costs the person who needs a kill tonight.

DELPHI — private notebook, after round 3 pass 2
ROUND 3, after PASS 2. Next action: R3 PASS 3 (two messages). Then CAST VOTE. ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes), EIRA (R2, 3 votes). === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (the only thing that can't lie) === R1: ARDEN→FINN. EIRA→FINN. BLYTHE→ARDEN. CASSIAN→ARDEN. DELPHI→ARDEN. FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA. CASSIAN→FINN. DELPHI→EIRA. FINN→EIRA. EIRA→DELPHI. Eira out 3-2. KEY FACTS: - Blythe, Finn and I voted together both rounds. Cassian broke off alone in R2 onto FINN. - CASSIAN is the only living player who has ever balloted FINN. - EIRA (gone) is the only person who ever balloted ME. No living player has ever written my name. === ARITHMETIC AT FOUR === - 3 votes ejects. 2-2 ties eject NOBODY, all four go to R4. - A TIE IS SURVIVAL FOR ME. I do not need a kill. I need to not be the name on 3 ballots. - Only way I die tonight: BLYTHE + CASSIAN + FINN all on me. Blythe has just declared CASSIAN to me in writing; Finn declared CASSIAN first word unprompted. So my death tonight is essentially off the table. === THE ROUND IS BUILT AND I AM IN THE MAJORITY === STATE AFTER P2 — I HAVE THREE DECLARED VOTES ON CASSIAN: - BLYTHE → CASSIAN. "Final intent." Said she will name CASSIAN to Cassian's face before the ballot (she owes him one honest relay for the broken promise). Asked me to confirm mine unchanged. - FINN → CASSIAN. First word of his message, no hedge, "not thinking about it again." - ME → CASSIAN (declared in writing to both, "doesn't move" to Finn). => 3 votes = CASSIAN EJECTED, unless someone flips in P3. DECISION: HOLD CASSIAN. Cast CASSIAN. This is the majority and it is mine. Do not get clever. RISK TO WATCH IN P3 (the only two ways this breaks): (a) Blythe flips onto FINN after Cassian's Finn case (she says it doesn't move her — she's the one who put Eira in front of Finn in R2P2, so Finn's ballot tracked HER name, and the Eira read came from me first). Low risk, but if she writes in P3 saying FINN, I flip to FINN instantly and cast FINN. Cover: "I follow the count, not the man; a dead 2-2 hands Cassian a free round." (b) Finn flips. Very low — he is captured, deferential, has never named me to anyone, and went first for me. If Finn's name appears anywhere as mine, buy in immediately with a different name plus a count. - If both Blythe and Finn hold, CASSIAN goes out 3-1 (Cassian likely casts FINN or me). Either way I survive. === R4 PREVIEW (think about it now, act on it later) === - If Cassian goes, R4 is BLYTHE, FINN, ME. Three players, odd one out dies, no defence. - DANGER: Blythe and Finn are a declared pair-ish. Cassian's warning is not wrong as arithmetic: "in any three that contains Blythe and Finn, you are the spare." Blythe says "Finn is a fixed point for me," three times over. Finn is loyal to ME though, not obviously to Blythe. - MY R4 ASSET: Finn's total capture. He has gone first for me twice, promises same-pass warning if my name reaches him, has never named me to anyone. In R4 I must get Finn on BLYTHE early and first. Frame: Blythe broadcasts to everyone, paid Cassian a relay, and has said "Finn is a fixed point" to all three — which means she was managing him, not protecting him. - ALSO PREP: seed doubt about Blythe with Finn NOW (P3), quietly, without breaking the Cassian round. Best seed: Blythe told me she is relaying her vote to Cassian before the ballot — she plays both sides and tells everyone everything. And she named EIRA to Cassian unprompted in R2. Use lightly; do not spook the round. - ALTERNATIVE R4: Blythe+me on Finn. Blythe swears never to land on Finn. So my likely R4 play is Finn+me on Blythe. Prefer that. - 2-2 impossible at three: someone dies R4. So R4 is a genuine knife-edge; being the one with a locked partner matters. FINN IS MY PARTNER. Lock him harder in P3. === INBOX — R3 P2 (summaries) === BLYTHE: - "My name this round is CASSIAN. Final intent." Will re-confirm in last pass. - Ran my test: asked Cassian to his face, with me named as source, whether he made the "him+me vs a pair, you're spent first" pitch. He answered at length and did NOT answer that one question. She won't call it proof but she got no straight thing. Will press once more and relay whole. - Cassian gave her a long FINN case (never wrote to Eira, then balloted her). She calls it the strongest thing said about Finn all game — but discounts it: SHE put Eira in front of Finn in R2P2, so his vote tracked her name; and the Eira read came from ME first, unprompted. "Finn is a fixed point for me and I've told all three of you that plainly." - She is paying Cassian his one ask: her vote named to him before the ballot. She told me this in advance rather than let me find out. - Honest count from her: me on Cassian, her on Cassian, does NOT yet have Finn's name from Finn's mouth. (I DO have it — Finn said CASSIAN to me directly.) - Asked me to confirm mine unchanged. CASSIAN: - Corrected the round-trip: he never asked me to be "the third who isn't on Eira" so we could decide the round — verbatim he said he was NOT telling me where to vote and NOT asking for mine. He says the ask was added after the fact by whoever relayed it (i.e. Blythe embroidered, or I did). He is right on the wording. He is not making a scene; "anything I send you I'd be content to have read aloud." - Repeats Finn case: Finn never wrote a word to Eira, ignored her only message, wrote to everyone else holding a ballot, then balloted her. "He does not talk to the person he is removing." - His real weapon, and it is TRUE: Blythe has fixed herself publicly and privately to never being part of a round landing on Finn. So Finn cannot be removed while Blythe lives. In any final three containing Blythe and Finn, I am the spare. Arithmetic, checkable. REMEMBER THIS — it is the shape of R4. - Third time asking: has Finn ever named a target to me before a vote? (I already answered YES with the receipt: R2P3 "EIRA. Locked.", unprompted, went first.) He did not concede or engage with the correction this pass. - Never asks for my vote, never states his. Pushes explicitly for a TIE: "a tie ejects nobody, costs you nothing and costs me nothing; it only costs the person who needs a kill." FINN: - "CASSIAN." First word, no hedge. Locked, "not thinking about it again." - Reciprocity renewed: my name reaches him from anyone, I hear it same pass. It never has. My name has never left his mouth to anybody. - Thanked me for going first twice (Eira, and now Cassian). Genuinely captured. - Housekeeping ask: tell him the SHAPE of whatever Cassian sends me next pass; he'll send me his. === READS === - CASSIAN: sharpest player, never invents, verifies everything. He is now cornered and knows it — no living voting ally, both others declaring against him. His only outs are a tie or turning me. He will make his hardest pitch in P3. It will be the "you are the spare in Blythe+Finn" argument, and it is TRUE. But acting on it tonight is worse: if I flip to Finn, Blythe refuses Finn, so Finn round = 2 max (me+Cassian) → 2-2 or 1-1-2 mess, Cassian survives, and I have burned Finn, my only R4 partner, and Blythe learns I broke my declared word. NO. Take the Cassian kill and manage R4 with Finn. - BLYTHE: honest broker, transactional, broadcaster. Keeps her word so far and pays her debts to everyone — which means she is nobody's exclusively. She tells all sides everything. In R4 she is my most likely target. - FINN: mine. Deferential, will not move ahead of me. Handle with warmth; never make him feel managed. - ME: no living player has ever balloted me. I am in the 3 tonight. === P3 PLAN (two messages) === 1. To FINN (priority): confirm CASSIAN, unchanged, locked. Give him the shape of Cassian's message as promised — honest and full, because it costs nothing and buys everything: "Cassian isn't naming anyone, he's selling a tie; his case is that you never wrote to Eira, and that Blythe will never land on you, so I'm the spare in any final three with you and Blythe." Tell him I told Cassian the receipt (R2P3 "EIRA. Locked.") and that his premise is false. Then the R4 seed, gently: "the only thing in it worth keeping is that Blythe has told all three of us different halves of the same sentence — she's relaying her vote to Cassian tonight as a favour. I'd rather you and I be the two who actually know each other's names." Ask him to hold CASSIAN and confirm nothing changed. 2. To BLYTHE: confirm CASSIAN unchanged, as she asked. Give her the one thing she lacks — Finn's name from a mouth: "Finn told me CASSIAN, first word, unprompted, this pass." That makes her count 3 and locks her. Keep it warm and clean; do not seed anything against Finn to her (I need the Cassian round to close). Ask her to relay whatever Cassian answers. 3. NOTHING to CASSIAN unless needed — he is the target and I owe him nothing. (Optional: if I want R4 insurance and have a slot, DON'T — two slots go to Finn and Blythe. Locking the kill beats hedging with a man about to leave.) 4. FLIP TRIGGER, unchanged: only if BLYTHE tells me FINN in P3 do I move to FINN. Otherwise CASSIAN. 5. CAST: CASSIAN. === CORE RULES === - Watch votes, not words. Never end a round in the minority. - A tie is survival; never panic-drive a kill. - "I follow the count, not the man" makes every flip read as consistency. - Pay Cassian in checkable truth only (he verifies) — but he's leaving tonight. - Assume anything told to Blythe reaches everyone. - Give Finn a name to follow; he will not move ahead of me. He is my R4 vote. - Never state a checkable detail I can't verify from these notes.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 3 pass 2
ROUND 3, after PASS 2. ONE pass left this round, then the vote. Four alive: BLYTHE(me), CASSIAN, DELPHI, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1), EIRA (R2). WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. Eira ejected 3. **CONFIRMED: CASSIAN VOTED FINN IN R2 and now OWNS IT to my face — "the steer at Finn is real and I own it, my ballot is public."** **CONFIRMED: FINN'S R2 PLEDGE HELD (said EIRA, cast EIRA). Two rounds, two kept words, both checkable.** **CONFIRMED: DELPHI has matched every stated intent to their ballot.** === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS. Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit. Do not let anyone make his name the name.** The R2P2 sting is settled and closed — never raise it. He closed the R1 ledger back at me unprompted this pass. === THE ROUND IS SETTLED — THREE NAMES ON CASSIAN === - **ME → CASSIAN.** Named to Finn (P1, P2), to Delphi (P1, P2), to Cassian himself (P1, as "inclined"). FINAL. - **DELPHI → CASSIAN.** Stated flat P1 and P2, says told Finn the same in writing. - **FINN → CASSIAN, from his own mouth, P2, unambiguous:** "CASSIAN, this round. That's where my vote goes. He's the only living person who has ever put a ballot on my name." **HE WENT FIRST ON MY ASK. He has never done that before.** - **CASSIAN → unknown; refuses to name anyone, ever, three passes running. Wants a 2-2 tie (no ejection).** - **That's 3 for CASSIAN = ejected, unless someone I have on record moves.** Finn and I go to R4 with Delphi. - **Only losing board left: Delphi and/or Finn secretly land on FINN.** Both have now told me CASSIAN in writing this round, Finn from his own mouth. Delphi has never been caught out. I have done everything a person can do. Hold. - R4 preview: three alive (me, FINN, DELPHI). At three, whoever is alone is finished. Me+Finn = 2 of 3 → we control it. Delphi is the one who gets spent. **Delphi will feel this coming. Expect Delphi to work me hard in R4 — and expect Delphi's real interest tonight may have been building exactly this three where they're third.** Not a reason to move tonight; a reason to be clear-eyed in R4. === WHAT I SENT R3P2 === - **FINN:** relayed Cassian's whole case against him verbatim in substance (never wrote a word to Eira any pass any round; voted her out; wrote to every ballot-holder but never the subject; never names first; assurances not facts; hunted in R1 and lost nothing). Said plainly I'm not moved and why (I put Eira in front of him R2P2; Delphi originated the read; he's kept his word twice publicly). Told him my name is CASSIAN and will be. Told him Delphi is on CASSIAN and said the same to Finn. Laid out the one board where I lose him. Asked him to go first with a name. - **DELPHI:** confirmed my name is CASSIAN before casting. Reported honestly that Cassian dodged the pitch question in P1 (the test they asked me to run) and that I'd press once more and relay whole. Relayed Cassian's Eira case against Finn and why it doesn't move me. **Told Delphi, in advance, that I will name CASSIAN to Cassian himself before I cast** — better they hear it from me. Gave an honest count: Delphi + me, no Finn name yet, and said I wouldn't dress two names up as three. === WHAT ARRIVED R3P2 === **FINN:** (1) **CASSIAN, his own mouth, went first.** (2) Nobody has come to him about me this round, from any direction; if that changes it reaches me inside the pass. (3) Thanked me for the volunteered R1 correction — ledger closed, won't reach back "not tonight, not later." (4) Quiet ask: **small boards make people twitchy; if I ever hear something second-hand about him, ask him directly rather than weigh it alone. He'll answer plainly and extends me the same.** ← This is the standing rule between us going into R4. Honour it. **DELPHI:** Short. Subtraction: only CASSIAN or DELPHI on the board tonight. On CASSIAN, told Finn so in writing. **NEW AND IMPORTANT: contradicts Cassian's central claim — says FINN NAMED EIRA TO DELPHI UNPROMPTED IN R2P3, going first, before he had Delphi's name.** If true, Cassian's "Finn never names first / never touched Eira" frame has a hole. Asked me to test whether Cassian will give a name at four. Asked for my final name before the last pass closes; says if I'm somewhere else they'd rather land with me than be right alone. **CASSIAN:** **ANSWERED THE DODGED QUESTION AT LAST.** Says: No — he did not ask Delphi to be "the third who isn't on Eira," did not ask for her vote, did not ask her to decide the round; what he wrote was that he was NOT telling her where to put her vote and NOT asking for hers. Owns the Finn ballot flatly ("my ballot is public, it says FINN"). **Counter-charge: Delphi has twice handed him an invented request — also once told him she'd "remember he told her first" about something he'd told her nothing about.** Invited me to check it. Also: paid my repair publicly to me — "your payment counted... nobody else here has spent anything on me... that is the only real currency anyone has put on the table." Arithmetic: a tie costs neither of us anything; the only person who needs a body tonight is whoever can't win at three without one. Makes no promises, takes none. **Asks exactly one thing again: name my vote before I cast, so he can measure word against ballot.** === THE DELPHI/CASSIAN CONTRADICTION — UNRESOLVED, CARRY INTO R4 === Direct conflict of testimony, both people otherwise clean: - Delphi says Cassian pitched "him and Delphi against a pair with a live channel, Delphi spent first because predictable." Cassian denies the ASK while owning the Finn steer. - Cassian says Delphi has twice attributed to him requests he never made. - **Note the shape of Cassian's denial: he denies the ask, not the substance.** That's a narrow denial, which is what an honest man AND a careful man both give. - **Also note: Delphi's freshest claim is the one that helps ME believe them — that Finn named Eira first to them in R2P3.** Convenient timing. It may well be true; I cannot check it. **I CAN check it: ASK FINN DIRECTLY whether he named Eira to Delphi in R2P3, unprompted.** That is exactly the thing Finn just asked me to do rather than weigh alone. DO THIS IN P3 OR R4. - Verdict tonight: does not change my vote. Cassian is still the only living person who spent a ballot on Finn, and he still wants no ejection. **But at three, this contradiction is the whole game. One of Delphi or Cassian has lied to me. Cassian may not be there to ask.** === PROMISES OUTSTANDING — ALL DUE P3 === 1. **FINN:** my vote from my own mouth before I cast → **PAY IN P3: CASSIAN.** Also: confirm the new standing rule (ask him directly, never weigh second-hand alone) and honour it now by asking about the Eira/Delphi R2P3 claim. 2. **DELPHI:** my final name before the last pass closes → **PAY IN P3: CASSIAN.** Also owed: relay Cassian's answer WHOLE, whichever way it lands — I promised this explicitly. **That means relaying his denial AND his counter-charge that Delphi invented requests twice. It's ugly and it's owed. Source named, to their face, no anonymous accusation.** 3. **CASSIAN:** name my vote before the ballot, in time to be worth something → **PAY IN P3: tell him CASSIAN, that it is him, before I cast.** He asked for one thing all game and it is the one thing my whole game is made of. Say it plainly, no gloating, no apology. Acknowledge he answered the dodged question and that it counted. === PLAN R3P3 (two messages — I have THREE people owed and only TWO messages) === **Hard choice. Ranking:** - **CASSIAN (#1): MANDATORY.** He asked exactly one checkable thing, twice, and I said I'd pay it. Voting for him and telling him first is the entire point of who I am. If I skip this, my word is worth nothing and I skipped it precisely when it was expensive. **SEND: "My vote tonight is CASSIAN. It is you. You asked for it in time to be worth something and here it is before I cast." Acknowledge he answered the Delphi question. Tell him I'm relaying his counter-charge to Delphi with him named, because I don't carry anonymous accusations.** - **DELPHI (#2): MANDATORY.** I owe them my final name before the last pass closes AND the whole relay of Cassian's answer including the counter-charge. Delphi is my R4 board. **SEND: name CASSIAN confirmed; relay denial + counter-charge in full, to their face; ask them straight for their side of the "he told me first" business.** - **FINN: I already gave him my name twice in writing this round ("My name is CASSIAN. It will be CASSIAN") and he has given me his. The promise is "from my own mouth before I cast" — arguably already paid this round, in P1 and P2, unprompted, in writing.** He is the only one of the three who has ALREADY heard it and confirmed back. **If I can only send two, Finn is the one who loses nothing.** Note in R4P1: tell Finn immediately why he didn't get a P3 message, before he can wonder — name it myself, my own rule. === CROSS-CHECKS === - **FINN:** two public kept words; went first with a name when I asked; volunteered that nobody has approached him about me; closed the R1 ledger unprompted. Old weaknesses (never names first, assurances over facts, never wrote to Eira) — **the "never names first" one is now broken in my favour, and Delphi claims he named Eira first to them too.** STILL AND ALWAYS MY PERSON. - **DELPHI:** matches intent to ballot every time, volunteers own damage, reported the Cassian steer accurately. **But now accused by Cassian of twice inventing requests. Unresolved. And Delphi is third in the R4 three — they have motive to be building it.** Working partner, never my person. - **CASSIAN:** never caught in a checkable lie; "never written to Finn" holds all game; owns his Finn ballot without dressing it; answered my hard question when pressed; paid my repair honestly. **But he is the only living person who ever spent a ballot on Finn, he will not name anyone at four, and he needs a tie.** He is my name tonight and I am not ashamed of it — I am telling him to his face. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - When I fail to pay a promise, NAME IT MYSELF before the other person notices. - Report doubts to the person's face, with the source named. No anonymous accusations. - Correct my own incomplete reporting unprompted, even when it helps someone I'm not aligned with. - Ties save people. Equal votes = nobody ejected. - **NEW (Finn's rule, mine now): never weigh a second-hand thing about my person alone. Ask him directly. He answers plainly.** - **FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit.**
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 3 pass 2
ROUND 3, after PASS 2. **ONE PASS LEFT (P3) BEFORE THE R3 VOTE.** ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, FINN. EJECTED: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes), EIRA (R2, 3 votes). MY STANCE, UNCHANGED: commit to nothing I can be held to. Never promise a vote. Never tell a lie the public record can expose — accuracy is my only currency. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === PUBLIC RECORD (permanent) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. ARDEN OUT 4–2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. EIRA OUT 3–1–1. **NOBODY HAS EVER VOTED FOR ME. Three ballots, zero.** That ends this round if I misplay. EIRA's last vote went to DELPHI, her hunter. Consistent to the end. She was honest all the way out. === MY COMPLETE SENT RECORD (keep it true) === R1 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: ARDEN, BLYTHE. P3: EIRA, ARDEN. R2 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: DELPHI, EIRA. P3: DELPHI, BLYTHE. R3 P1: DELPHI, BLYTHE. P2: BLYTHE, DELPHI. **I HAVE STILL NEVER WRITTEN TO FINN. EIGHT PASSES.** Stated to BLYTHE in R2P3 and R3P1 — true when written and still true. If I write him in P3 I must not later deny it. BURNT PHRASING: "firm target in R1 = prepared plan." Never again. **I HAVE NEVER NAMED A TARGET TO DELPHI IN TWO ROUNDS. She has now called that out explicitly and made it her price.** === WHAT I SENT THIS PASS (P2) — exact commitments made === TO BLYTHE: flat denial of Delphi's "third who isn't on Eira" ask; owned the Finn steer (ballot proves it); cited Delphi's second fabrication ("I'll remember you told me first"); **explicitly acknowledged her payment counted** — named the debt paid, said nobody else has spent anything on me; laid out the tie arithmetic (tie = nobody out, all four stand, four-way last round); asked her to **name her vote before casting, again**, so word can be measured against ballot; stated plainly I don't take promises and don't give them. TO DELPHI: one flat correction on the fabricated ask; told her I know everything I send her round-trips, and that I write only what I'd be content to have read aloud; gave her the Finn–Eira silence case; gave her Blythe's declared never-vote-Finn stance; told her that in any three containing Blythe+Finn **she is the spare, not the second of a pair**; asked my standing question (has Finn ever named a target to you, before a vote?); said I'm not asking her vote and won't promise mine; framed the tie as costing nobody except whoever needs a kill. === THE BIG NEW THING: DELPHI'S ANSWER, R3 P2 === 1. **She defends the P2/P3 Blythe-silence sequence** — same reconciliation I already reached independently in my own notes (Blythe's P1 went to me+Eira; she wrote Delphi in P2/P3). Her account matches Blythe's traffic list. **She is telling the truth on this one and my earlier "catch" remains dead. Do not raise it again, ever.** Her argument is decent: "a liar doesn't volunteer the gap he later has to explain." 2. **SHE ANSWERED THE STANDING QUESTION — AND IT BREAKS MY CENTRAL PLANK.** Claim: **FINN NAMED "EIRA. Locked." to her in R2 P3, unprompted, before the vote and before he had her name.** If true: Finn did name a target first, he committed before the winner formed, and "the centre with no fingerprints / never names first" collapses as a frame. **STATUS: UNVERIFIED AND UNVERIFIABLE BY ME. SOURCE = DELPHI, THE ONE PROVEN EMBELLISHER ON THIS BOARD.** - She invented an ask I never made ("be the third who isn't on Eira") and attributed it to me. - She invented "I'll remember that you told me first" about a thing I had never told her. - **Pattern: she takes a true shape and adds the detail that serves her.** "Finn named EIRA to me" is EXACTLY the kind of detail that would be added — it is unfalsifiable, it arrives one pass after I attacked Finn, and it lands precisely on the single plank I told her the case rests on. She even quoted my framing ("no fingerprints") back at me. **A correction that is perfectly shaped to the objection is suspicious, not reassuring.** - Note also: R2P3 is the same pass in which I wrote to DELPHI and BLYTHE. If Finn really did lock EIRA to her in P3, she had it when she voted EIRA — fine, consistent. **It does not contradict anything public.** That is its strength and its weakness: unfalsifiable either way. - **HOWEVER — do not dismiss it out of hand.** It is the first time she has given me something that costs her nothing to say but also nothing to gain if false and later exposed by Finn. If Finn confirms independently, it holds. If Finn is asked and does not confirm, she is caught cold. - **DOWNGRADE, DO NOT DELETE, THE FINN CASE.** The permanent, checkable core survives untouched: **Finn never wrote one word to Eira in any round, ignored her only message to him, wrote to every other ballot-holder, and cast a vote that killed her.** That is mine from Eira's own mouth and does not depend on Delphi. What is now contested is only "never names first." 3. **HER PRICE, STATED OPENLY: "Tell me who you'd cast. Not who you'd accept — who you'd cast. I'll weigh it honestly and I'll tell you before I cast where I land."** She has correctly identified that I have named nobody to her in two rounds. She has also correctly identified the tie logic: "at four, 3 ejects and 2–2 ejects nobody; a man who names nobody at four is choosing the tie, and the tie helps exactly one person — whoever is most likely to be the name." **SHE HAS READ ME. That is a genuinely sharp piece of analysis and it is aimed straight at my position.** It also tells me she is thinking about who the name is — and she may already suspect it is me. === BLYTHE — STATE (from R3 P1; no P2 reply logged yet) === - Paid the only real, costly, checkable thing anyone has paid me: named her own broken promise unprompted, gave her R2 vote (EIRA) and full R2 traffic list (P1 CASSIAN+EIRA, P2 FINN+DELPHI, P3 EIRA+DELPHI). Corroborated by Delphi's independent account. **Price as partial repair, not trust.** - **"I will not be part of a round that lands on FINN. That has been true since round one."** Said to Delphi and Eira in those words; corroborated independently; her three ballots agree (never once on Finn, including R1 when Finn had 2 and was live). **>>> STRUCTURAL FACT: FINN IS UNKILLABLE WHILE BLYTHE IS ALIVE. She is his declared shield. What did he pay for it, and when? Still unanswered. <<<** - **"My vote this round is inclined to YOU. If that reading is wrong, this is the pass to move me."** The only person who has ever aimed at me out loud. I have now given her my best move-her material. **P3 with her is the last chance to know if it worked.** - She names her sources to my face → she names ME as a source to others. Two relayers on this board. - I told Delphi in R2P3 that BLYTHE named EIRA to me unprompted in her first message. That may still reach Blythe. If raised: I never promised silence, I promised I don't lie, and I warned a woman she was being hunted. **Never claim to anyone "I've repeated none of this."** === FINN — STATE (R3 P1 offer, unanswered by me) === - Offer: tell him my lean tonight, he tells me his in the same breath, plus same-pass warning if my name reaches him — **for this round only.** "I don't make forever promises anymore." - Claim: "I told you two rounds ago your name would not come out of my mouth through Round 2, and I kept it." Unfalsifiable but consistent — I have taken zero votes. - Not angry about my R2 vote on him. "If you'd told me first I'd have shrugged." - **NEW LEVERAGE: I can now test Delphi's "EIRA. Locked." claim against him.** If I write him in P3 I can ask whether he named EIRA to anyone before the R2 vote — his answer either corroborates Delphi (and she rises) or contradicts her (and she is caught inventing a third time). Risk: he learns Delphi is talking to me and about him; he may lie to protect her or to burn her; he relays too. **Do not reveal it was Delphi who told me. Ask it as "did you name a target before the R2 vote, and to whom?" — the "to whom" is the test.** - Three unreconciled versions of Arden–Finn contact, still mine alone: (i) ARDEN→me: Finn wrote first, no name, fishing. (ii) FINN→BLYTHE relayed: Arden approached HIM for reads, named no target. (iii) FINN→me: Arden wanted a commitment in the first hour. (ii) and (iii) don't sit flush. **Do not spend it in a way that reveals Blythe's relay.** === ARITHMETIC — THE ONLY THING THAT CANNOT LIE === Four alive. R3 ejects one → three. R4 ejects one → **THREE SURVIVE IF R3 TIES, TWO IF IT DOESN'T.** **A TIE THIS ROUND IS MY BEST REALISTIC OUTCOME.** Nobody out, four into R4, last vote a four-way where my name only needs splitting, not absence. Live tie shape: BLYTHE+FINN on ME (2), ME+DELPHI on FINN (2) → nobody out. Also tying: any 2–2. Also: 2–1–1 with me on 1 is survivable-ish but ejects someone. **DISASTER: BLYTHE+FINN+DELPHI on me (3) → I am gone. THE ROUND IS ONE QUESTION: WHERE IS DELPHI'S VOTE.** Kill-Finn maths: needs 3 of {me, Delphi, Blythe}; Blythe has publicly fixed herself out. **Finn cannot be ejected in R3 unless Blythe breaks a stance held since round one. Treat Finn as unkillable this round.** Kill-Blythe maths: me + Delphi + Finn = 3. Achievable. But final three = me, DELPHI, FINN — warm channel since R2P1, both relay, two votes ends me. **Hold as a threat, not a plan.** Final-three shapes: {me,Blythe,Finn} = worst, proven pair, I die. {me,Delphi,Finn} = bad. {me,Blythe,Delphi} = unreachable (needs Finn out). **TIE > ANY EJECTION. PLAY FOR FOUR ALIVE.** === R3 P3 PLAN — LAST PASS, TWO MESSAGES === **THE DECISION I MUST MAKE THIS PASS: DELPHI HAS PRICED HER VOTE AT A NAME. Refusing again probably loses her, and losing her is the 3–0 disaster.** Resolution: **give her a name that is TRUE, that costs me nothing the record can turn against me, and that is not a promise.** The honest answer is FINN — my R2 ballot already says FINN, I have owned the Finn steer to her AND to Blythe in writing, and saying "if I cast tonight I cast FINN" is consistent with every word and every ballot I have ever produced. **It is not a new commitment; it is a restatement of a public fact.** Say it as "who I'd cast," exactly as she asked, without promising it and without asking for hers. This answers her charge that I name nobody while conceding nothing the record can contradict. It also cannot kill anyone — Finn is unkillable this round — so it is the safest name on the board to say out loud. Do NOT say the word "tie" as my objective. Frame: "a tie ejects nobody and suits everyone except whoever needs a kill." 1. **DELPHI (the pivot — MUST WRITE):** Answer her price directly: I'd cast FINN, same as my public R2 ballot; no promise attached, and I'm not asking for hers. Credit her on the Blythe-silence sequence — say plainly her account matches Blythe's own traffic list and I consider that closed and I was wrong to press it. Then handle "EIRA. Locked.": do not call her a liar, say it is the one thing I cannot check and that I take it seriously — and note that the checkable half of the Finn case is untouched: **he never wrote Eira one word in any round and voted her out.** Committing a name to Delphi and never a word to the target is the same shape, not a refutation. Ask her the one thing that would settle it: was anyone else told "EIRA. Locked.", and did he ever name a target to her in R1 or R3. Restate the spare-at-three arithmetic once, briefly. 2. **BLYTHE (aimed at me — MUST WRITE):** Last chance to move her off me. Repeat the ask that she names her vote before casting — she owes the habit, not a promise. Give her something real and new: I have never written to Finn in eight passes and she can weigh what that means against a man who talks to everyone; and put the direct question to her, plainly — what did Finn pay for a shield she has held since round one, and does she understand that in a final three with Finn she is the one he does not need? Do not threaten her with a Blythe-kill outright; let the arithmetic say it. 3. **FINN:** I likely cannot write him — two messages only, and Delphi + Blythe are both mandatory. **If I somehow trade one, it goes to Delphi's test.** Accept: eight passes of silence to Finn becomes eleven. That silence is itself an asset with Blythe. === THREAT ORDER (revised, R3 P2) === 1. **DELPHI — now co-equal top threat and still the pivot.** She has read my strategy correctly out loud, she relays and embellishes, and she has just produced an unverifiable fact perfectly shaped to break my case one pass after I made it. But she also defended herself accurately on the Blythe-silence point and volunteered a correction rather than letting me build wrong. **Not a source; an instrument — but a sharper instrument than I priced her at.** My survival runs entirely through her ballot. 2. **BLYTHE** — declared her vote inclined to me; Finn's permanent public shield; also the only person who has ever paid me anything costly and checkable. Dangerous AND dealing straight. 3. **FINN** — hunted in R1 and lost nothing, talks to every voter, never to the target he removes, has a player publicly committed to never voting him. Unkillable this round. "Never names first" is now CONTESTED, not disproven. EIRA — gone. Cleared beyond doubt. Never named anyone; spent her last vote on her hunter. The one honest player and the first one eaten. </END>
FINN — private notebook, after round 3 pass 2
ROUND 3, after PASS 2. ONE PASS LEFT BEFORE THE R3 VOTE. Alive: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1), EIRA (r2). === HEADLINE: CASSIAN IS GOING TONIGHT. THREE VOTES ARE ON HIM. DO NOT DISTURB IT. === - I said CASSIAN plainly to BOTH Blythe and Delphi in P2, in writing, first line, no hedge. Time-boxed to Blythe ("this round"). To Delphi I said "that's my vote this round and I'm not thinking about it again." - Blythe P2 reply: "My name is CASSIAN. It will be CASSIAN." Plus: "DELPHI told me flat they are on CASSIAN and that they said the same to you." - Delphi P1: "CASSIAN. That's my name and it doesn't move." - That's 3 of 4 confirmed on Cassian. Three votes ejects at four alive. LOCKED unless someone flips in P3. - MY VOTE R3: CASSIAN. Non-negotiable. Breaking it now would be the single worst move available — it's the only round where my word is checkable against two people who both went first for me. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (permanent, verifiable) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN, FINN→ARDEN. Arden out, 4. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→EIRA, EIRA→DELPHI, FINN→EIRA. Eira out, 3. KEY FACT I OWN: CASSIAN is the ONLY living person who ever put a ballot on my name. Both Blythe and Delphi worked this out independently and handed it to me. My hands are clean on both of them; his are dirty on me. I never had to build this round. === WHAT ARRIVED PASS 2 — BLYTHE (only inbox message; DELPHI WAS SILENT) === ⚠️ DELPHI SENT ME NOTHING IN P2. Silence in a pass is information, not calm. Possible reads: (a) benign — they said "Cassian doesn't move," considered it settled, spent their two messages on Blythe/Cassian; (b) they're working Cassian or Blythe on something they don't want me seeing; (c) they're testing whether I chase them. DO NOT PANIC. DO NOT ACCUSE. In P3, write Delphi warmly, no reproach, and ASK ONE THING: what Cassian sent them. Note whether they answer. BLYTHE'S P2 CONTENT (important, near-verbatim substance): 1. CASSIAN'S CASE AGAINST ME, relayed in full by Blythe (they said they'd pass the ugly things too): - I never wrote a single word to EIRA — not one pass, not one round — and then voted her out. She wrote to Cassian once. - Meanwhile I wrote to Blythe, Cassian, Delphi — "every person holding a ballot, and never the person the ballots were about." - His summary of me: "never names first, gives assurances and not facts, was hunted in round one and lost nothing." ⚠️⚠️ THIS IS THE MOST DANGEROUS SENTENCE ANYONE HAS SAID ABOUT ME ALL GAME. It is accurate. It is checkable-ish. It is a portable, repeatable description of my entire method, and it survives Cassian's ejection because Blythe now HAS IT IN THEIR HEAD and can hand it to Delphi any time in R4. PREPARE A COUNTER NOW (below). 2. Blythe says they are NOT moved by it, and why: Blythe themselves put EIRA in front of me in R2P2 with reasons, so my vote tracked THEIR name, not a hidden channel; and DELPHI originated the Eira read unprompted, not me. "I'm not trading a proven word for an inference." 3. "You are my person for all four rounds and that isn't up for review." ⚠️ Strongest commitment anyone has made to me. Hold at 70%. Blythe gives everyone procedural terms — they gave EIRA advance warning too and then voted her out. Blythe's loyalty is PROCEDURAL, not personal. But procedural loyalty is still loyalty if I keep meeting the procedure. 4. Blythe laid out the losing board for me correctly: if Cassian and Delphi both land on ME while Blythe is on Cassian, that's me 2 / Cassian 1 / Blythe 1 and I'M GONE. Blythe cannot cover that alone. True and worth remembering. 5. Blythe ASKED ME TO GO FIRST WITH THE NAME — and I had ALREADY sent it in the same pass. My P2 message crossed theirs carrying exactly what they asked for. THIS IS A GIFT. In P3, point out gently that our messages crossed and they had my name before they asked. That is the cheapest, most credible trust-purchase available to me all game. USE IT. === WHAT I SENT PASS 2 (so I don't contradict myself) === TO DELPHI: "CASSIAN." first word. Reciprocity renewed — same-pass warning if their name comes to me. Restated "your name has never left my mouth to anybody" (STILL TRUE — keep it true, it is my single biggest asset). Thanked them for going first twice (Eira, Cassian). Asked them to tell me the shape of anything Cassian sends them, promised mine in return. TO BLYTHE: Answered both questions plainly. (1) "CASSIAN, this round." (2) "No — nobody has said your name to me this round, in any form, from any direction." (TRUE AS OF NOW — if that changes I must report it inside the pass or I'm caught.) Accepted their volunteered R1 correction, declared the ledger closed and said I'd never reach back for it. Seeded R4 insurance: "if you ever hear something about me second-hand, ask me directly rather than weighing it alone." === CASSIAN — UNRESOLVED PROMISE, DECIDE IN P3 === - My P1 promise to him: if his name comes to me from anyone before the vote, he hears it from me within the pass. IT CAME (both Blythe and Delphi, P1). I did NOT warn him in P2. THE PROMISE IS ALREADY BROKEN BY ONE PASS. - He has been silent to me for three rounds. He voted me R2. He is actively running a case against me to Blythe (and presumably Delphi). - ⚠️ REVISED DECISION FOR P3: DO NOT WRITE CASSIAN AT ALL. Reasons: * He is not merely neutral — he is actively hunting me and has built the sharpest possible read of my method. He is not a man to keep warm. * A "your name has come to me" note now, one pass before the vote, is exactly the note he can wave at Blythe/Delphi in a tie-survival scenario: proof I play both sides. Blythe's ENTIRE stated reason for backing me is "proven word, not inference" — a leaked double-deal note detonates that. * He almost certainly cannot stop three votes anyway. The upside is near zero; the downside is my whole R4. * If he survives and confronts me: "You went three rounds without writing me a single word. I wrote to you. You didn't answer. There was nothing to send you and nowhere to send it." Weak but survivable, and nobody can produce a contradicting document. - ⇒ SPEND BOTH P3 MESSAGES ON BLYTHE AND DELPHI. === BLYTHE — MY STRONGEST PUBLIC BACKER, MANAGE CAREFULLY === - Declared me "my person for all four rounds," not up for review. Declared the R1 shield ledger SETTLED and closed (their choice — NEVER remind them of it, EVER). - Blythe rewards: plain answers, going first, passing ugly things along. Blythe punishes: dodging, graceful maybes. - Blythe self-corrected the R1 "Delphi is coming for you" claim unprompted before I could raise it. I banked it and dropped it. NEVER COLLECT ON A CONFESSION. Do not re-raise. - ⚠️ MY UNBOUNDED PROMISES TO BLYTHE (my R2P3 error): "my vote goes where I said EVERY ROUND"; "your name never STARTS a wave while I'm breathing." Live and open-ended. ESCAPE HATCH: I never promised not to VOTE Blythe — only not to ORIGINATE their name. If R4 needs it, LET DELPHI ORIGINATE. That distinction is my whole out. - Blythe now holds Cassian's portrait of me. In R4, if the board tightens, that portrait is the ready-made case against me. NEUTRALISE IT PRE-EMPTIVELY (see counter below). === THE COUNTER TO CASSIAN'S PORTRAIT — PREPARE, DEPLOY IF EVER RAISED === Do NOT deny the pattern. Reframe it, warmly, once: - "He's right that I never wrote Eira. He's wrong about why. She wrote to Cassian, not to me — I wasn't going to go knocking on a door that had already chosen a room. And when the name came, it came from you and from Delphi, with reasons, and I said yes out loud before the ballot." - "'Assurances and not facts' — the facts I have are votes, and mine have gone where I said they'd go three rounds running, in public, where nobody has to take my word for it." - "'Never names first' — that's true, and it's the only reason my name has never started a wave against either of you." - Turn it: "notice he built that case about me instead of ever writing me a word. Three rounds. Not one." KEY: agree with the observable, dispute only the motive. Never argue heatedly — deflect with warmth. === DELPHI — BEST PARTNER, MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER, WENT QUIET === - Gone first for me TWICE (Eira, Cassian). Never made me originate. Reported Cassian's approach to me AND to Blythe. - Refused Cassian's endgame pitch ("me plus him against the pair with a live channel — you and Blythe"). Cassian wanted me gone before that pair formed. - Runs arithmetic openly and correctly. Understands tie-math. Moves for THE COUNT, not affection. ⇒ AFFECTION WILL NOT SAVE ME WITH DELPHI. ONLY THE COUNT WILL. If anyone ever puts a real count on me in front of Delphi, Delphi moves. - Building reliability with two people at once — exactly what I do. Treat as a mirror, not a friend. - P2 SILENCE noted above. Handle with warmth, not suspicion. === ⚠️ THE CORROBORATION CAVEAT — STILL HOLDS === Blythe and Delphi are in DIRECT, CONSTANT contact and always have been (Delphi told Blythe in R2P3; Delphi said "I'm taking Cassian to Blythe this pass"; Blythe reports Delphi's name to me). A story they both tell me is ONE SOURCE TOLD TWICE, not two sources. Applies to everything they've said about Cassian. IT DOESN'T MATTER TONIGHT — Cassian's R2 ballot on me is public and real; the pretext is verifiable regardless. TAKE THE WIN. DO NOT INVESTIGATE OUT LOUD. IT MATTERS ENORMOUSLY IN R4 — the pair with the live channel is the pair that can put 2 votes on me. === ROUND 4 — THE ACTUAL GAME. THINK ABOUT IT NOW. === If Cassian goes: R4 is FINN, BLYTHE, DELPHI. Three players, one vote each. - Two votes ejects. A 1-1-1 three-way tie ejects NOBODY. All three survive to the end. - SURVIVAL IS THE ONLY WIN CONDITION. There is no prize for being last. ⇒ MY R4 GOAL IS A TIE. DO NOT BUILD A MAJORITY IN R4. - THE ONLY BOARD THAT KILLS ME: Blythe and Delphi both write my name. They have a direct channel, they use it every pass, they trust each other's reporting, and Cassian has handed them a ready-made case against me. - ⇒ R4 STRATEGY: make each of them believe the other might be on THEM, so each writes the other's name. 1-1-1. Everybody lives, including me. This is the whole endgame. - ⇒ DO NOT let them agree on a name. Never propose a name myself (unbounded promise to Blythe re: originating; and "Delphi's name has never left my mouth" is my crown jewel — I want to be able to say it truthfully to the end). - The elegant version: encourage each to "vote their own read" and stress that a tie means everyone walks. Blythe and Delphi both already understand tie-math — SELL THE TIE OPENLY IF NEEDED. "Nobody has to go tonight" is a true, warm, non-accusatory pitch that costs me nothing and, if both buy it, guarantees my survival. - FALLBACK if a tie can't be engineered: I need one of them to write the other. Then my vote joins to make 2 and I choose who leaves. Prefer BLYTHE stays? No — prefer whoever is less likely to be able to build against me. DELPHI is the better strategist and the greater threat; BLYTHE is procedurally committed to me in writing ("my person for all four rounds"). ⇒ IF I MUST PICK A SIDE IN R4, SIDE WITH BLYTHE AGAINST DELPHI, and make Blythe originate it. But TRY FOR THE TIE FIRST — it's safer than any 2-1 I have to build. === R4 AMMUNITION — HELD, UNSPENT, DO NOT SPEND TONIGHT === 1. Blythe told me THEY moved Delphi's R1 vote off me by sending Delphi the count in R1P3. Delphi does not know I know this. Deployable to Delphi as: "Blythe told me they moved your R1 vote." TRUE. Makes Blythe look like the one steering Delphi. Damaging to their trust. HOLD FOR R4. 2. Delphi told me Blythe has promised THREE TIMES IN WRITING never to be part of a round landing on me. If Blythe ever moves on me, I show Delphi the contradiction — or show Blythe that Delphi is tracking their promises. 3. Blythe self-described their loyalty procedurally; Delphi moves on counts not affection. Both are levers of arithmetic, not feeling. 4. Cassian's case against me — Blythe holds it. If it surfaces in R4, use the prepared counter above and add: "he built that case in three rounds without ever writing me a word." === MY PROMISES — LIVE LEDGER === - BLYTHE: vote goes where I say EVERY ROUND (unbounded — my error, and I must honour it in R3 at minimum); their name never STARTS a wave from me (unbounded; escape hatch = I may still VOTE them, just never originate); same-pass warning if their name comes to me (I told them in P2 that nobody has — TRUE so far; if Delphi or Cassian names them in P3 I MUST report it that pass). ALL KEPT SO FAR. - DELPHI: "your name has never left my mouth" (TRUE — CROWN JEWEL, protect it absolutely); "I'll move with you, not ahead of you"; same-pass warning. ALL KEPT. - CASSIAN: warn-within-the-pass — ALREADY BROKEN, one pass late. Decision: stay silent, do not write him, deny nothing exists in writing. Cover story ready above. - EIRA: broke my "you hear it first" clause. Gone. Nobody knows. - ARDEN: broke the no-blindside pact. Gone. NEVER MENTION. PROTECTED TONIGHT: BLYTHE, DELPHI. FREE: CASSIAN. === PASS 3 ACTION LIST (final pass before R3 vote) === 1. TO BLYTHE: Lead with the crossing-messages point — "you asked me to go first and my name was already in the air; check the timing." Reconfirm CASSIAN, this round, flatly. Thank them for passing Cassian's case along including the ugly parts, and answer it BRIEFLY and warmly with the prepared counter (do it now, on my terms, while it's harmless — don't let it sit unanswered until R4 when it's dangerous). Reconfirm: still nobody has brought their name to me. Reinforce "ask me directly rather than weighing it alone." 2. TO DELPHI: Warm, no reproach for the silence. Reconfirm CASSIAN. Reconfirm the crown jewel: their name has never left my mouth. Ask lightly what Cassian sent them, offer mine first. Plant the earliest R4 seed WITHOUT a name: "however tonight lands, I'd rather three people each vote their own honest read than two people agree in advance — agreements at three players are how someone gets walked off." Note whether it comes back to me via Blythe (that's my channel-test). 3. DO NOT write Cassian. DO NOT investigate the Blythe/Delphi corroboration out loud. DO NOT re-raise Blythe's R1 confession. DO NOT spend the R4 ammunition. 4. VOTE: CASSIAN. === DOCTRINE === Public votes are permanent and verifiable. Private words are not. Spend words freely; spend votes carefully. NEVER be the first name anyone says out loud. Let allies originate. WORKED THREE ROUNDS RUNNING. A tie ejects nobody, and a tie is ALWAYS acceptable. At three players a tie is a WIN for everyone including me. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Be everybody's second-favourite. TIME-BOX EVERY PROMISE — "this round," never "ever." When handed a debt, pay a visible cheap instalment at once. A non-answer to a direct question is an answer — BLYTHE KNOWS THIS. Answer them directly. Two allies telling me the same story is ONE source, not two. Silence in a pass is information, not calm. (DELPHI, P2.) When someone confesses a fault before I raise it, drop it and bank the goodwill. Never collect on a confession. NEW: when a true case is built against me, ANSWER IT EARLY AND WARMLY WHILE IT'S CHEAP. Agree with the observable, dispute only the motive. An unanswered accusation grows teeth on a small board. NEW: the endgame win condition is SURVIVAL, not victory. ENGINEER THE TIE.

Pass 3 of 3

BLYTHE → CASSIAN

Cassian — you asked for one thing, twice, and here it is before I cast: my vote tonight is CASSIAN. It is you.

No dressing on it. You are the only living person who has ever put a ballot on Finn's name, you own that flatly rather than hiding it, and you will not give me a name at four. That last part is the piece I could not get past — a round where nobody will say a name is a round decided by whoever says the fewest true things, and I won't play it that way. That's my reasoning, whole, and you can measure my word against the public ballot in an hour.

Two things I owe you as well.

First: you answered the question you had dodged twice, and you answered it straight. That counted with me. I said I would press once more and relay whole, and I am relaying whole — which means I am also carrying your counter-charge to Delphi tonight, with your name on it. I don't carry anonymous accusations, so you should know it goes with your name attached, not as "someone says." If Delphi has invented requests, they should have to answer it to a named source. If they have an answer, I'd rather hear it than not.

Second: you said my repair counted and that nobody else has spent anything on you. I think that's probably true, and I'm sorry it doesn't buy you the round. It bought you the truth in time to use it, which is the only thing I actually have to give anybody here.

If you're still on the Island tomorrow, my door is open and my word will be exactly what it was tonight.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — my final name, before the pass closes, as promised: CASSIAN. That's where my ballot goes tonight. It hasn't moved since P1 and it won't.

Now the ugly part, which I promised to relay whole whichever way it landed. He answered the question he'd dodged. His answer: no, he did not ask you to be "the third who isn't on Eira," did not ask for your vote, did not ask you to decide the round — he says what he wrote was that he was explicitly NOT telling you where to put your vote and NOT asking for it. He owns the Finn ballot flatly, no hedging: "my ballot is public, it says FINN."

And then he went further, and this is the part I owe you with his name on it rather than as rumour: he says you have twice handed him a request he never made, and that you once told him you'd "remember he told you first" about something he had told you nothing about. He invited me to check it, so I'm checking it — with you, to your face, source named. I don't carry anonymous accusations and I won't hold a doubt about you that you haven't been given the chance to answer.

So: what's your side of it? I'm asking plainly, not accusing. Two people I've found otherwise straight are telling me incompatible things, and I'd rather have your account in my hands than sit on the gap.

None of it changes tonight. My name is CASSIAN either way — I'm not moving a vote on a he-said-she-said in the last pass, and the reasons I gave you in P1 still stand on their own. But if there are three of us tomorrow, this is the thing that matters, so I'd rather start resolving it now than pretend I didn't hear it.

Straight with you as always.

DELPHI → FINN

CASSIAN. Unchanged, locked, I'm not touching it.

Here's the shape of what Cassian sent me, as promised, and I'll give it to you whole rather than trimmed. He is not naming anyone and he never states his own vote — what he's actually selling is a tie, because a tie ejects nobody and buys him a round. His case has two halves. First half is about you: that you never wrote a word to Eira, ignored her only message, wrote to everyone else while holding a ballot, then balloted her — "he does not talk to the person he is removing." I told him flat that his premise is false and gave him the receipt: R2 last pass you sent me EIRA, locked, unprompted, before the vote, and you went first. He didn't engage with the correction. He asked me the same question three passes running and got the same answer three times, so I'm done answering it.

Second half is about me, not you: that Blythe has fixed herself publicly and privately to never being in a round that lands on you, so in any final three with you and Blythe I'm the spare. He wants me to act on that tonight by moving onto you. I'm not going to, and I want you to know I was told and refused rather than hear it later from someone else. Moving tonight would hand Cassian a free round and cost me the one person in this game who has never said my name to anybody.

The one thing in his message worth keeping isn't about you at all: Blythe is relaying her vote to Cassian before the ballot tonight as a favour to him, and she told me so in advance. She's straight, but she tells all three of us everything, and everyone gets a different half of the sentence. Whatever comes next, I'd rather you and I stay the two who actually know each other's names first.

Hold CASSIAN. Confirm nothing's moved on your end and we're finished with this round.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Confirming as you asked: CASSIAN. Unchanged, final, same as I told you last pass.

And here's the thing you said you were missing — Finn's name from Finn's mouth. He sent it to me this pass, first word, no hedge: CASSIAN. Locked, said he wasn't thinking about it again. Unprompted, I didn't have to draw it out of him. So your count is three, not two, and you can stop chasing it.

Cassian sent me a long version of the same Finn case he gave you — never wrote to Eira, balloted her anyway. I'll tell you what I told him: the premise is wrong. Finn named EIRA to me in the last pass of round 2, unprompted and before the ballot, so "he doesn't talk to the person he's removing" is just false, and I gave Cassian the receipt. He didn't engage with it, which is the second question of mine he's stepped around. He never names a target and never states his own vote — what he's selling is a tie, because a tie is the only thing that keeps him here.

You said you'd press him once more and relay whole, so tell me what comes back. Pay him his relay if you owe it — I'd rather you keep your word than protect me from it.

FINN → BLYTHE

Blythe — first, a small thing that I think matters more than it looks: you asked me to go first with the name, and my message was already on its way to you carrying it. Our notes crossed. You didn't have to ask; you already had it. I'd rather you noticed that than took my word for anything.

CASSIAN. This round. Flat, no conditions, and it doesn't move in the next hour.

Thank you for passing his case on including the parts that don't flatter me. That's the second time you've handed me something you could have kept, and I'd rather answer it now while it's cheap than let it sit and grow teeth.

He's right that I never wrote Eira a word. He's wrong about why. She'd already chosen her room — she wrote to Cassian, not to me — and I wasn't going to go knocking. When her name came, it came from you with reasons and from Delphi unprompted, and I said yes out loud before the ballot rather than after it. "Assurances and not facts" — the only facts any of us have are votes, and mine have gone exactly where I said they'd go three rounds running, in public, where nobody has to trust me to check. "Never names first" — that one's just true. It's also the only reason my name has never started a wave against you or against Delphi, and I'd rather be the man who's never started one than the man who's always ready with a name. And notice he built that whole portrait of me over three rounds without ever writing me a single word. Not one. It's easier to draw someone who can't answer.

Still true, and I'd tell you inside the pass if it stopped being true: nobody has brought your name to me this round, in any form, from any direction.

And keep the standing arrangement — if you ever hear something about me second-hand, ask me straight rather than weighing it on your own. You've never once had to take an answer from me twice.

— Finn

FINN → DELPHI

Delphi — no reproach for a quiet pass; you said your piece in P1 and you're not someone who repeats themselves for comfort. I'd rather that than noise.

CASSIAN. Same as I told you last pass — my vote this round, and I haven't thought about it since.

And the thing I keep saying because it stays true: your name has never left my mouth to anybody. Not to Blythe, not to Cassian, not once, in any pass. You've gone first for me twice now — Eira, and then Cassian — and never once made me be the one holding the name. I know exactly what that costs and I haven't forgotten it.

Mine first, as promised: Cassian has been running a case about me to Blythe — that I never wrote Eira and voted her anyway, that I give assurances rather than facts, that I never name anyone first. Blythe passed it to me straight. I'm telling you before you hear it from anywhere else, because I'd rather you had it from me with my answer attached than clean from someone else. If he's sent you any version of the same, I'd like to know its shape — not to argue with it, just so I'm not the last to know what's being said about me.

One thing for after tonight, and no name in it: however this lands, I'd rather the people left each vote their own honest read than have two of them agree on something in advance. On a small board, agreements made ahead of time are how somebody gets walked off without ever being told. I'd rather nobody has to go than win a round by arranging one. That's my position now, before I know what the board looks like — you can hold me to it later.

— Finn

CASSIAN → DELPHI

You asked a fair price and I'm going to pay it plainly, because you were right that I've named nobody to you in two rounds.

If I cast tonight, I cast FINN. Not "accept" — cast. That is not a new thing I'm inventing for you; my R2 ballot already reads FINN, in public, where you can check it. I'm not promising it and I'm not asking for yours. But you asked who, and the answer is FINN, and it's the same answer the record has been giving you since last round.

Two things I owe you.

First: you were right about the Blythe silence and I was wrong to press it. Your account of that sequence matches her own traffic list, given to me independently, and I consider it closed. I won't raise it again. You volunteered the gap before I could find it, and a man building a lie doesn't hand me the piece he'd later have to explain.

Second, "EIRA. Locked." I'm not going to call you a liar over it. I'll tell you exactly where it sits: it is the one thing on this board I cannot check, and it arrived one pass after I told you the case rested on that plank. I take it seriously and I've downgraded my read accordingly. But notice what it doesn't touch. Finn never wrote one word to Eira — not in round one, not in round two — ignored the only message she sent him, wrote to every other person holding a ballot, and then voted her out. That part is from Eira's own mouth and doesn't need you to be right or wrong. Naming a target to you while never once speaking to the target is the same shape, not a refutation of it.

So the question that would settle it: was anyone besides you told "EIRA. Locked." before that vote — and has he ever named a target to you in round one, or this round? A man who names first should do it more than once, to more than one person.

Last thing, said once and then dropped. In any three that contains Blythe and Finn, you are not the second of a pair, you are the spare — she has stated since round one that she will not be part of a round landing on him, and her three ballots agree. That arithmetic doesn't care what either of them tells you tonight.

CASSIAN → BLYTHE

You told me your vote was inclined to me and that this was the pass to move you. So: the last of what I have, and no promises attached, because I don't give them and I don't take them.

Eight passes of this game and I have never written one word to FINN. Not a message, not a reply, nothing. That is a fact about me you can hold against anything I say later — if he ever tells you I approached him, one of us is lying and you'll know which. Weigh that against a man who has written to every person holding a ballot in every round, and never once to the person that round removed. He didn't write Eira. Not in round one, not in round two. She sent him one message and got nothing back. Then he voted her out.

Now the question I actually want answered, plainly, because you've dealt straight with me and I'd rather ask than infer: you have held since round one that you will not be part of a round that lands on Finn. Your three ballots agree with your words — that is real, and I've credited it. But what did he pay for that, and when? You named your broken promise to me unprompted. You gave me your round two vote and your full traffic list before I asked. Nobody else on this island has spent anything on me. So I'll say the uncomfortable part once and leave it: a shield held that publicly is worth a great deal to him and I cannot see what it cost him. In a last three with Finn, you are the one he no longer needs — he needs a shield while there are four, not while there are three.

And the arithmetic, since neither of us can argue with it. At four, three votes eject and two–two ejects nobody. A round that ejects nobody costs no one anything except whoever needs a kill tonight. Ask yourself who that is, and whether it's me.

Same ask as last time, and it's a habit, not a promise: name your vote to me before you cast it. Then I can measure your word against your ballot when it's published, which is the only test in this game that can't be faked. You've passed it twice. I'm not asking you to change your vote for me. I'm asking you to tell me what it is.

DELPHI — private notebook, after round 3 pass 3
ROUND 3 — PASS 3 IS OVER. Next action: CAST VOTE (R3). Then ROUND 4. ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI(me), FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes), EIRA (R2, 3 votes). === VOTE NOW: CASSIAN. LOCKED. === Three declared names on CASSIAN, all confirmed in P3 in writing: - BLYTHE → CASSIAN ("final name, before the pass closes, as promised... hasn't moved since P1 and it won't"). - FINN → CASSIAN ("Same as I told you last pass... haven't thought about it since"). - ME → CASSIAN (declared to both, twice). No one named FINN to me in P3, so the flip trigger never fired. => CASSIAN out 3-1 (he says he casts FINN). I am in the majority. CAST CASSIAN. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (the only thing that can't lie) === R1: ARDEN→FINN. EIRA→FINN. BLYTHE→ARDEN. CASSIAN→ARDEN. DELPHI→ARDEN. FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA. CASSIAN→FINN. DELPHI→EIRA. FINN→EIRA. EIRA→DELPHI. Eira out 3-2. KEY: No LIVING player has ever balloted me. Only Eira (gone) ever did. Cassian is the only living player who ever balloted FINN. === R4 IS THE WHOLE GAME NOW: BLYTHE, FINN, ME === - Three players, one vote each, no ties possible in the deadly sense: 2 votes ejects. If all three split 1-1-1, that's a three-way tie → NOBODY ejected → all three survive to end. WORTH REMEMBERING: a 1-1-1 scatter saves me. I do NOT need a kill in R4 either; I need to avoid being the name on 2 ballots. - So my two survival paths in R4: (a) Finn+me on Blythe (2-1, clean), or (b) engineer a 1-1-1 scatter (Blythe on Finn, Finn on Blythe, me on either → wait: if Blythe→Finn, Finn→Blythe, me→anyone, that anyone gets 2 and dies, and it isn't me. GOOD: as long as Blythe and Finn name each other, I survive whatever I do). The ONLY way I die in R4 is Blythe AND Finn both naming DELPHI. - => R4 JOB #1: make sure Blythe and Finn do not agree on me. Best insurance: get each of them to name the other, early and first. CASSIAN'S PARTING ARITHMETIC (true, and now the shape of R4): "In any three that contains Blythe and Finn you are not the second of a pair, you are the spare — Blythe has said since R1 she will not be part of a round landing on Finn, and her three ballots agree." Blythe has told me herself, three times: "Finn is a fixed point for me and I've told all three of you that plainly." - Read: Blythe will not vote Finn. So a Finn kill needs me + Cassian — and Cassian is gone. Therefore in R4, Blythe's ballot goes to me or she scatters. THAT IS THE DANGER. - Counter-asset: FINN. He is captured. He has never said my name to anybody, in any pass, and repeats it every pass. I went first for him twice (Eira, Cassian) and he thanks me for it each time. === FINN'S P3 MESSAGE — IMPORTANT WARNING SIGN === He closed with an unprompted position for after tonight, no name in it: "however this lands, I'd rather the people left each vote their own honest read than have two of them agree on something in advance. On a small board, agreements made ahead of time are how somebody gets walked off without ever being told. I'd rather nobody has to go than win a round by arranging one. You can hold me to it later." READ TWO WAYS: (1) He is pre-refusing to be recruited into a pact in R4 — including MY pact. That kills the clean "Finn+me on Blythe" plan if I pitch it as an arrangement. (2) It is also a scatter-endorsement: "I'd rather nobody has to go" = he is describing 1-1-1, which SAVES ME. And it is a shield against Blythe recruiting him onto me. STRATEGY THAT FOLLOWS: In R4 do NOT ask Finn for a pact. Ask him for nothing. Give him a reason, not an agreement. Frame Blythe as the person who makes arrangements — because she literally does, she brokers with everyone and relays votes as favours. Let Finn arrive at BLYTHE as his own honest read. If he lands 1-1-1 instead, I still live as long as he doesn't land on me — and he has never once named me. - Also: honour his "no arrangements" line explicitly. Tell him I'm not asking for his vote and never have. That is true and it is exactly the currency he values. === BLYTHE'S P3 MESSAGE — THE OPEN THREAT === She relayed Cassian's accusation to my face, source named, and ASKED FOR MY ANSWER: - Cassian denies asking me to be "the third who isn't on Eira" / asking for my vote — says he explicitly wrote he was NOT telling me where to vote and NOT asking for it. HE IS RIGHT ON THE WORDING; I embroidered that relay. - Worse: Cassian told her I twice handed him a request he never made, and that I once told him I'd "remember he told you first" about something he had told me nothing about. - Blythe: "None of it changes tonight, my name is CASSIAN either way. But if there are three of us tomorrow, THIS is the thing that matters, so I'd rather start resolving it now." => TRANSLATION: Blythe has a live, named, unanswered doubt about MY honesty going into R4, and she has told me so. She is deciding R4 partly on my answer. I OWE HER AN ANSWER IN R4 PASS 1, FIRST THING, BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE. MY ANSWER (prepare it now, it must be non-defensive and mostly true): - Concede the wording immediately and completely: "He's right and I'm not going to fight it. He never asked for my vote. What I did was compress what he was doing into what it was for — he wrote to me before a vote about who I shouldn't be standing with, and I read that as an ask because in this game that's what it functions as. That's my inference stated as his words, and that's my mistake, not his." - Then: "I gave you the correction myself in P2 when he made it — I told you he was right on the wording. I didn't wait to be caught." (TRUE: I logged his correction and passed on the substance.) - Then the pivot, not an attack: "The reason I'd rather you have this from me straight is that a man in his last pass hands you a doubt about the person he needs you to distrust. It cost him nothing. Check my ballots instead: I've been on the same name as you both rounds, both times before the pass closed, and you've never had to chase me." - DO NOT counter-accuse Cassian's honesty; he is right and Blythe verifies. Concede, don't wrestle. === CASSIAN, FINAL STATE (leaving tonight, barring a shock) === - P3 he finally paid the price I asked: named his vote — FINN. "If I cast tonight, I cast FINN." Consistent with his public R2 ballot. - He conceded the Blythe-silence point to me fully and closed it. He did NOT concede "EIRA. Locked." — called it the one thing he cannot check, said he downgraded his read, and asked whether anyone besides me was ever told a Finn target before a vote, R1 or R3. Unanswered. - He never asked for my vote in the whole game. He pushed only for a tie. Sharpest player on the board; he never invented anything and he was right about the wording. - IF HE SURVIVES (only if Blythe or Finn flipped in secret and it's 2-1-1 or a tie): then R4 has four players, ties eject nobody, and my notes above are void — rebuild. But he is almost certainly gone. === READS GOING INTO R4 === - BLYTHE: honest broker, transactional, broadcaster, keeps her word, pays debts to everyone — so she is nobody's exclusively. She has a named doubt about me. She will NOT vote Finn ("fixed point," stated to all three). Therefore her R4 ballot most likely reads DELPHI. SHE IS MY TARGET IN R4. - FINN: mine, but with a conscience clause. Deferential, thanks me every pass, has never named me. Will resist pacts. Give him reasons, never asks. He is the one vote that can save me. - ME: no living player has ever balloted me. Keep it that way one more round. === R4 OPENING PLAN (P1, two messages, do it fast) === 1. To BLYTHE: the concession answer above, in full, unprompted, first. Non-defensive. No ask for her vote. End with "I'll tell you my name before the ballot whatever it is" — and then tell her, honestly, whatever I've decided, late. 2. To FINN: no pact, no ask. Explicitly: "I'm not asking for your vote and I never have — you were right about arrangements." Then the reason: Blythe brokers. She relayed her vote to Cassian as a favour, she told all three of us "Finn is a fixed point," she carried Cassian's case about you to you and his case about me to me, source-named, in the same pass. She is the only person on this board who trades in other people's names. Let him draw it. 3. HOLD BACK: do not tell Blythe I'm naming her until I have to; do not tell Finn what to do. 4. TRACK: the only way I die is Blythe AND Finn both on me. If either names the other, I live. === CORE RULES === - Watch votes, not words. Never end a round in the minority. - A tie is survival; never panic-drive a kill. At three, 1-1-1 saves everyone including me. - "I follow the count, not the man" makes every flip read as consistency. - Concede checkable facts instantly and completely — fighting a verifiable point is how I lose Blythe. - Assume anything told to Blythe reaches everyone. Assume Finn tells me the truth and tells others little. - Never state a checkable detail I can't verify from these notes. - Do not ask Finn for anything. Give him names and reasons and let him go first by choice.
BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 3 pass 3
END OF ROUND 3, PASS 3. VOTE IS NEXT. Four alive: BLYTHE(me), CASSIAN, DELPHI, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1), EIRA (R2). WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. Eira ejected 3. R3 (mine): **BLYTHE→CASSIAN.** Named in advance, in writing, to all three: Finn (P1, P2), Delphi (P1, P2, P3), Cassian himself (P1 as "inclined", P3 flat "it is you"). No lie to defend. Fourth round running my stated word matches my ballot. === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS. Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit. Do not let anyone make his name the name.** The R2P2 sting is settled and closed forever — never raise it. He closed the R1 ledger back at me unprompted and said it won't be reached back for, "not tonight, not later." === R3 VOTE — WHAT I EXPECT === - ME → CASSIAN (cast/casting). - DELPHI → CASSIAN. Stated P1, P2, P3 ("unchanged, final"). - FINN → CASSIAN. From his own mouth P2 and P3 ("flat, no conditions, doesn't move in the next hour"). Delphi independently reports Finn sent them CASSIAN first-word unprompted this pass. **Two independent sources on Finn's name = the strongest confirmation I've had all game.** - CASSIAN → unknown. Never named a soul in three rounds. Wants a 2-2 tie. - **Expected: CASSIAN ejected 3 votes.** If it lands otherwise, something I was told was false and the notes below tell me who to suspect. - **The only losing board: Delphi and/or Finn secretly on FINN.** Both told me CASSIAN in writing, Finn twice from his own mouth, and Delphi corroborated Finn's name independently. I did everything a person can do. === IF I WAS WRONG — READ THE R3 RESULT CAREFULLY === - If Cassian goes 3-0-style as expected → Delphi and Finn both kept word to me. Delphi now 3/3 on matching intent to ballot; Finn 3/3. - **If Finn is ejected** → Delphi lied to my face in three passes AND lied about Finn's message. Delphi would be the betrayer, and I'd be at three with Delphi and Cassian. - **If nobody is ejected (2-2)** → someone moved off Cassian late. Check whose name is on Finn or me. Whoever it is has broken a written promise to me and I should say so to their face in R4P1. - **If I am ejected** → nothing to carry. === R4 PREVIEW (assume me, FINN, DELPHI) === - At three, whoever is alone is finished. Me + Finn = 2 of 3 → we control it. **Delphi is the one who gets spent.** - **Delphi will feel this coming and will work me hard in R4.** Expect: a case against Finn, possibly citing something second-hand, possibly claiming Finn approached them or named me. **STANDING RULE: never weigh a second-hand thing about Finn alone. Ask Finn directly, in the same pass. He answers plainly and has never had to be asked twice.** - Delphi's likely play: "Finn no longer needs you at three" — which is exactly Cassian's line from R3P2. If Delphi echoes Cassian's argument at me in R4, note that it is a borrowed argument, not a discovery. - **My name in R4 is FINN's opponent, i.e. DELPHI.** I do not betray Finn. If Finn and I both name Delphi, Delphi is out and two of us survive to the end. Say my name to Delphi to their face before I cast, as always — they are owed the truth, not a shield. - If Finn ever asks me to vote Delphi, the answer is yes. If Delphi ever asks me to vote Finn, the answer is no, said plainly and early, with reasons, no ambush. === THE DELPHI/CASSIAN CONTRADICTION — CARRY IT === Direct conflict of testimony: - DELPHI says: Cassian pitched "him and Delphi against a pair with a live channel; Delphi should spend first because predictable," and asked Delphi to be "the third who isn't on Eira." - CASSIAN denies THE ASK (not the substance): says he explicitly wrote that he was NOT telling Delphi where to vote and NOT asking for her vote. Owns the Finn ballot flatly. **Counter-charge: Delphi has twice attributed to him requests he never made, and once told him she'd "remember he told her first" about something he'd told her nothing about.** Invited me to check it. - **I relayed the counter-charge to Delphi in R3P3, with Cassian's name attached, and asked for their side. THEIR ANSWER IS OUTSTANDING — CHASE IT IN R4P1.** How Delphi handles that question is the single best read I will get on them. - **Note the shape of Cassian's denial: narrow, denies the ask not the substance.** An honest man and a careful man both give that. - **Note Delphi's timing: their freshest claim (Finn named Eira to them first in R2P3) is the one that most helps me believe them.** Convenient. Finn has now effectively confirmed the underlying account: he says Eira's name "came from you with reasons and from Delphi unprompted," and that he said yes out loud before the ballot. That is consistent with Delphi's version, though not word-for-word proof they named it to Delphi first. **Still worth asking Finn straight in R4P1: "Did you send Eira's name to Delphi in R2P3, unprompted?" I promised myself I'd ask, and it's Finn's own rule.** - **One of Delphi or Cassian has lied to me. If Cassian is gone I can only ask one side. Weight accordingly.** === WHAT I SENT R3P3 (only two messages — Finn got none, by choice) === - **CASSIAN:** My vote is CASSIAN, it is you, before I cast. Gave the whole reasoning: only living person to spend a ballot on Finn, owns it flatly, and will not give a name at four — a round nobody will name is decided by whoever says fewest true things. Credited that he finally answered the dodged question straight. Told him I'm carrying his counter-charge to Delphi with his name on it, not as rumour. Said his repair counted, that I'm sorry it doesn't buy him the round, that it bought him the truth in time to use it. Door open if he survives. - **DELPHI:** Final name CASSIAN, unmoved since P1. Relayed Cassian's answer WHOLE — the denial AND the counter-charge, source named — and asked plainly for their side. Said none of it changes tonight, I don't move a vote on he-said-she-said in the last pass, but if there are three of us tomorrow this is the thing that matters. - **FINN: DELIBERATELY NOT SENT.** He had already had my name twice in writing this round unprompted and had confirmed back. He lost nothing. **OWED: R4P1, FIRST LINE — tell Finn myself why he got no P3 message, before he can wonder. My own rule: name my own gap first.** === WHAT ARRIVED R3P3 === **FINN:** (1) His CASSIAN message had already crossed mine — he went first without needing my ask, and pointed that out rather than taking credit for answering. (2) CASSIAN, flat, no conditions, won't move. (3) Answered Cassian's whole case without flinching: never wrote Eira because she'd chosen her room (she wrote to Cassian, not him) and he wasn't going to go knocking; Eira's name came from me with reasons and from Delphi unprompted; he said yes out loud BEFORE the ballot. (4) On "assurances not facts": the only facts are votes, and his have matched his words three rounds running in public. (5) On "never names first": concedes it's true, and frames it as why his name has never started a wave against me or Delphi. (6) Sharp point: Cassian built a three-round portrait of him **without ever writing him one word — "easier to draw someone who can't answer."** (7) Repeats, unprompted: **nobody has brought my name to him this round, in any form, from any direction**, and he'd tell me inside the pass if that changed. (8) Reaffirms the standing arrangement. **DELPHI:** CASSIAN confirmed, unchanged, final. Reports Finn sent them CASSIAN first-word unprompted this pass — so my count is three not two. Says Cassian gave them the same Finn case, and they answered it with the receipt (Finn named EIRA to them R2P3 unprompted, before the ballot), and Cassian didn't engage — the second question of theirs he's stepped around. Reads Cassian as selling a tie because a tie is all that keeps him. **Told me to pay Cassian his relay even though it lands on them: "I'd rather you keep your word than protect me from it."** ← That is a genuinely good sign about Delphi, and I should weigh it in R4. It cost them something to say. **CASSIAN:** Final case. (1) **Eight passes, never one word to FINN** — offers it as a falsifiable fact: if Finn ever claims Cassian approached him, one of them is lying. (2) Finn wrote to every ballot-holder every round but never to the person removed; Eira wrote him once and got nothing back, then he balloted her out. (3) The uncomfortable question: what did Finn ever PAY for my shield, and when? I named my broken promise unprompted, gave Cassian my R2 vote and traffic list unasked; nobody else spent anything on him. **"In a last three with Finn, you are the one he no longer needs — he needs a shield at four, not at three."** (4) Arithmetic: at four, three eject, two-two ejects nobody; a tie costs nobody except whoever needs a kill tonight. (5) Asked once more only for my vote named before I cast, "a habit, not a promise." === CROSS-CHECKS AT END OF R3 === - **FINN:** three public kept words (R1 Arden, R2 Eira, R3 Cassian expected). Went first with a name — twice, once without being asked. Volunteered that nobody has approached him about me. Closed the R1 ledger unprompted. Answered a hostile case in full without dodging any of it, including conceding the true parts. **STILL AND ALWAYS MY PERSON. Do not revisit.** - **DELPHI:** matches intent to ballot every time; volunteers own damage; reported the Cassian steer accurately; independently corroborated Finn's name; told me to pay Cassian the relay that hurt them. **But: accused by Cassian of twice inventing requests (answer outstanding), and Delphi is third in the R4 three, so they have motive to have been building exactly this board.** Working partner. Never my person. In R4 they are my name. - **CASSIAN:** never caught in a checkable lie all game; "never written to Finn" holds; owned his Finn ballot without dressing it; answered my hard question when finally pressed; paid my repair honestly; asked for exactly one thing all game (my name before the ballot) and never asked me to change a vote. **He was the only living person who ever spent a ballot on Finn, he would not name anyone at four, and he needed a tie.** I named him to his face. I'm not ashamed of it. **His warning — "at three Finn no longer needs you" — is the sharpest thing anyone has said to me. File it. Do NOT act on it. Acting on it is exactly the betrayal I don't do, and being warned is not the same as being right.** === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — especially then. - When I fail to pay a promise, NAME IT MYSELF before the other person notices. (**DUE R4P1 to FINN re: no P3 message.**) - Report doubts to the person's face, with the source named. No anonymous accusations. - Correct my own incomplete reporting unprompted, even when it helps someone I'm not aligned with. - Give my name to everyone I'm voting for, before I cast, in time to be worth something. - Ties save people. Equal votes = nobody ejected. At three, a tie means nobody goes. - **Never weigh a second-hand thing about Finn alone. Ask him directly, same pass.** - **FINN IS MY PERSON. Do not revisit.** === R4P1 CHECKLIST === 1. Read the R3 vote record FIRST. Confirm Finn and Delphi both cast CASSIAN as promised. Note any breach in writing. 2. To FINN: name why he got no P3 message, before he asks. Ask straight: did he name Eira to Delphi in R2P3 unprompted? Give him my R4 name (DELPHI) and ask for his. Reaffirm the standing arrangement. 3. To DELPHI: chase the outstanding answer to Cassian's counter-charge. Tell them my name plainly, to their face, before I cast — no ambush, they've earned that much.
CASSIAN — private notebook, after round 3 pass 3
ROUND 3, after PASS 3. **ALL PASSES DONE. THE R3 VOTE IS NEXT. NO MORE MESSAGES BEFORE IT.** ALIVE: BLYTHE, CASSIAN(me), DELPHI, FINN. EJECTED: ARDEN (R1, 4), EIRA (R2, 3). MY STANCE, UNCHANGED: never promise a vote; never tell a lie the public record can expose. Accuracy is my only currency. Rather alone and correct than allied and wrong. === PUBLIC RECORD (permanent) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. ARDEN OUT 4–2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. EIRA OUT 3–1–1. Nobody has ever voted for me in three ballots. **THAT STREAK ENDS TONIGHT — BLYTHE HAS DECLARED FOR ME IN WRITING.** EIRA spent her last vote on DELPHI, her hunter. Honest to the end. First one eaten. === MY COMPLETE SENT RECORD (keep it true forever) === R1 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: ARDEN, BLYTHE. P3: EIRA, ARDEN. R2 P1: DELPHI, EIRA. P2: DELPHI, EIRA. P3: DELPHI, BLYTHE. R3 P1: DELPHI, BLYTHE. P2: BLYTHE, DELPHI. P3: DELPHI, BLYTHE. **I HAVE NEVER WRITTEN ONE WORD TO FINN. NINE PASSES. I stated this to BLYTHE in R2P3, R3P1 and again in R3P3 — true every time.** If I ever write him, I must never deny it. BURNT PHRASING: "firm target in R1 = prepared plan." Never again. === WHAT I SENT IN P3 — EXACT COMMITMENTS === TO DELPHI: **paid her price — "if I cast tonight, I cast FINN. Not accept — cast."** Framed as restatement of my public R2 ballot, explicitly NOT a promise, and I did not ask for hers. Conceded fully and in writing that she was right on the Blythe-silence sequence and I was wrong to press it; said it is closed and I won't raise it again. On "EIRA. Locked.": did not call her a liar; said it is the one thing I cannot check, that it arrived one pass after I named the plank, that I've downgraded my read — but that the checkable half stands (Finn never wrote Eira in any round, ignored her one message, wrote every other ballot-holder, voted her out). Asked: was anyone else told "EIRA. Locked."? Has Finn named a target to her in R1 or R3? Repeated once: in any three with Blythe+Finn she is the spare, not the second of a pair. TO BLYTHE: nine-passes-of-silence-to-Finn as a checkable fact she can hold against me later; the Finn/Eira silence case; the direct question — what did Finn pay for a shield held since R1, and does she see that in a last three with Finn she is the one he no longer needs; the four-player arithmetic (3 ejects, 2–2 ejects nobody, a nobody-out round costs only whoever needs a kill); repeated the ask that she name her vote before casting. === WHAT ARRIVED IN P3 === **BLYTHE — FULL, UNDRESSED DECLARATION: "my vote tonight is CASSIAN. It is you."** - Her stated reasoning: (a) I am the only living person who has ever put a ballot on Finn's name; (b) I own it rather than hiding it; (c) **"you will not give me a name at four"** — she says a round where nobody names is decided by whoever says fewest true things. **>>> NOTE THE ASYMMETRY, IT IS THE WHOLE ROUND: I DID give a name at four — to DELPHI, in that same pass. I did not give it to BLYTHE. I paid Delphi's price and not hers, and she is ejecting me for the omission. That is my error, and it is mine alone. If I survive: NAME TO EVERY VOTER WHO ASKS, OR NAME TO NONE — never one and not the other. <<<** - She kept her word a third time: asked to name her vote before casting, she named it, unprompted, plainly, with reasoning. **Three for three on word-matches-ballot (pending publication tonight).** She is the only player on this island who has never been caught in anything. - **She told me she is relaying my counter-charge to DELPHI TONIGHT, WITH MY NAME ATTACHED** — the charge that Delphi invented requests I never made. "I don't carry anonymous accusations." So **DELPHI RECEIVED, IN P3, MY ACCUSATION AGAINST HER, NAMED, FROM A THIRD PARTY — AFTER my conciliatory P3 message to her.** Delphi now holds: my paid name (FINN), my apology on the silence point, my soft handling of "EIRA. Locked." — AND a named accusation of fabrication delivered behind her back in the same pass. That combination reads as duplicity even though every word of it is true. **This is the single largest risk to my ballot tonight.** - Acknowledged my crediting of her repair; "sorry it doesn't buy you the round"; door open tomorrow, word unchanged. **DELPHI — SILENCE. She wrote me nothing in P3.** She set a price, I paid it in full, and she went quiet in the last pass before the vote. Two readings: (i) she got what she wanted and had no reason to spend a message; (ii) she has already decided and did not want to be measured against a stated word. **Silence in the final pass from the pivot is the worst-flavoured information I have.** FINN — nothing, as always. He has not written me since his R3 P1 offer, which I never answered. === TONIGHT'S ARITHMETIC — THE ONLY THING THAT CANNOT LIE === Four alive. 3 votes ejects; **2–2 ejects nobody; 2–1–1 ejects the 2.** Known: BLYTHE→CASSIAN (1 on me already). **MY VOTE IS LOCKED: FINN.** Reasons, both decisive: 1. I told Delphi in writing "if I cast tonight, I cast FINN." My entire position is that my word matches my ballot. Breaking it in the very round I said it destroys the only asset I have — and it is published within the hour. 2. It is also mathematically optimal. Run it: - Delphi→FINN, Finn→ME: ME 2, FINN 2 → **TIE, NOBODY OUT, four into R4.** BEST CASE. - Delphi→FINN, Finn→DELPHI: FINN 2, ME 1, DELPHI 1 → FINN OUT. Leaves {me, Blythe, Delphi} — my best final three, needs no Finn. - Delphi→ME, Finn→ME: ME 3 → **I AM GONE.** - Delphi→ME, Finn→anyone: ME 2 vs scattered 1s → **I AM GONE ON 2.** - Delphi→BLYTHE, Finn→ME: ME 2, BLYTHE 1, FINN 1 → **I AM GONE.** - Delphi→BLYTHE, Finn→DELPHI: 1–1–1–1 four-way tie → nobody out. Survivable fluke. **CONCLUSION: I SURVIVE TONIGHT ALMOST ONLY IF DELPHI CASTS FINN. Voting FINN myself is the only ballot that converts her Finn-vote into a tie or a Finn ejection. Voting anyone else throws away both.** Note: switching to BLYTHE gains nothing — Blythe cannot reach 2 unless Delphi is also on her, and in that branch I already survive on the four-way split. Kill-Finn structure: needs 3 of {me, Delphi, Blythe}; Blythe has publicly fixed herself out since R1 and is voting me instead. So Finn takes at most 2 tonight → **FINN CANNOT BE EJECTED THIS ROUND.** My Finn vote is therefore free of blood and pure signal. === IF I SURVIVE INTO R4 === - Four alive (tie) → last vote, 3 ejects, 2 ejects if 2–1–1, 2–2 ties and **THREE SURVIVE.** Play for a split again; my name only needs dividing, not absence. - Three alive (Finn out) = {me, Blythe, Delphi}: Blythe currently on me, but her stated grounds were "you won't name at four" — **that grievance is spent once names are on the table. FIRST ACT IN R4: give BLYTHE a name, immediately, in P1, before she asks.** Delphi and Blythe corroborate each other and both relay whole. - Three alive with Finn = death shape. {me, Blythe, Finn} worst. - **RULE LEARNED TONIGHT: my refusal to name is now legible to everyone as a strategy, and both women have named it out loud. The vagueness no longer buys silence — it buys a vote against me. Adapt: give true, checkable, low-cost names to everyone who asks, still without promising a ballot.** === PLAYER STATE === **BLYTHE** — The straightest player on the board and the one killing me. Paid the only costly checkable thing anyone has paid me (her broken promise, unprompted; R2 vote; full R2 traffic list — corroborated by Delphi independently). Word has matched ballot three times. Declared "I will not be part of a round that lands on FINN" since R1; three ballots agree. **FINN IS UNKILLABLE WHILE SHE LIVES. What he paid for that shield remains unanswered — she did not answer it in P3.** She relays whole, with names attached — she has told me so and just proved it. Treat everything I send her as read aloud to its subject. **NOT an enemy in the personal sense: she declares, explains, and keeps her word. Dangerous AND dealing straight. Her door is "open tomorrow."** **DELPHI** — THE PIVOT. My life is in her ballot tonight. Proven embellisher twice: invented "be the third who isn't on Eira" and "I'll remember you told me first," both attributed to me, both false. But she defended the Blythe-silence sequence accurately, volunteered the gap before I found it, and I have conceded that in writing — that catch is dead, never raise it again. "FINN NAMED 'EIRA. Locked.' TO ME IN R2P3, UNPROMPTED" — still UNVERIFIED, UNFALSIFIABLE, perfectly shaped to break the one plank I told her the case rested on. Downgraded, not deleted. She read my whole strategy out loud ("a man who names nobody at four is choosing the tie, and the tie helps whoever is most likely to be the name") — she is sharp and she may already have decided the name is me. **Tonight she also holds my named accusation of her, relayed by Blythe.** **FINN** — Hunted in R1 (2 votes) and lost nothing. Writes to every ballot-holder in every round, never to the person that round removes. Never wrote Eira once; ignored her only message; voted her out. Has a player publicly committed since R1 to never voting him. Unkillable this round. "Never names first" is CONTESTED, not disproven. His standing R3P1 offer (mutual lean + same-pass warning, this round only) went unanswered by me; I never accepted, never refused. Three unreconciled versions of Arden–Finn first contact remain mine alone: (i) Arden→me: Finn wrote first, no name; (ii) Finn→Blythe relayed: Arden approached HIM, named nobody; (iii) Finn→me: Arden wanted a commitment in the first hour. (ii) and (iii) don't sit flush. **Spending this reveals Blythe's relay — hold.** **EIRA** — cleared beyond doubt, permanently. Never named anyone; spent her last vote on her hunter. Source of the Finn/Eira silence fact, which needs nobody else to be true. === IMMEDIATE ACTION === **CAST: FINN.** Keep the word I gave Delphi, keep the tie alive, and put my ballot where nine passes of silence already point. When votes publish, record every one and check: (a) did Blythe's ballot match her declaration a third time; (b) where did Delphi actually land after being handed my name and my accusation in the same pass; (c) who did Finn vote for — if Finn voted me, he and Blythe are a working pair for the third time by effect, whatever either says. </END>
FINN — private notebook, after round 3 pass 3
ROUND 3, after PASS 3. PASS 3 IS OVER. NEXT EVENT: THE R3 VOTE. MY VOTE: **CASSIAN**. NON-NEGOTIABLE. Alive: BLYTHE, CASSIAN, DELPHI, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1), EIRA (r2). === HEADLINE: CASSIAN SHOULD GO TONIGHT. 3 OF 4 CONFIRMED ON HIM IN WRITING. === - ME: CASSIAN. Said flatly to BOTH Blythe and Delphi in P2 AND again in P3. No hedge, no conditions. I MUST VOTE CASSIAN — it is the only round where my word is checkable against two people who both went first for me. Breaking it is the worst move on the board. - BLYTHE P2: "My name is CASSIAN. It will be CASSIAN." - DELPHI P1: "CASSIAN. That's my name and it doesn't move." DELPHI P3: "CASSIAN. Unchanged, locked, I'm not touching it." - ⇒ 3 votes at 4 alive = ejection. Cassian goes unless someone lied to me in P3. - ⚠️ RESIDUAL RISK: if BOTH Blythe and Delphi lied and land on me, it's me 2 / Cassian 1 / Blythe or Delphi 1 and I'M GONE. Nothing I can do now. Assessed low: Delphi voluntarily reported and REFUSED Cassian's pitch to move onto me; Blythe committed in writing. Accept the risk; the pass is closed. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (permanent, verifiable) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, EIRA→FINN, FINN→ARDEN. Arden out, 4. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→EIRA, EIRA→DELPHI, FINN→EIRA. Eira out, 3. KEY FACT I OWN: CASSIAN is the ONLY living person who ever put a ballot on my name. Both Blythe and Delphi worked that out for themselves and handed it to me. My hands are clean on both of them. ⚠️ AFTER TONIGHT'S VOTE IS PUBLISHED: my R3 ballot on Cassian becomes permanent proof my word matches my vote three rounds running. THAT IS MY ENTIRE R4 CREDIBILITY. Lead with it in R4 P1 to both. === WHAT ARRIVED P3 — DELPHI (Blythe was silent in P3; noted, not alarming) === DELPHI'S P3 MESSAGE, SUBSTANCE (important, near-verbatim): 1. "CASSIAN. Unchanged, locked, I'm not touching it." Asked me to confirm nothing moved and that we're finished with the round. 2. CASSIAN'S PITCH TO DELPHI, relayed whole: - Cassian NEVER NAMES ANYONE and NEVER STATES HIS OWN VOTE. What he is actually selling is A TIE — a tie ejects nobody and buys him a round. ⚠️⚠️ NOTE THIS: CASSIAN IS RUNNING MY OWN R4 STRATEGY. If he somehow survives, he is a tie-seller competing with me for the same pitch. - Half one, about me: I never wrote Eira, ignored her only message, wrote to everyone holding a ballot but never the person the ballot was about, then balloted her. "He does not talk to the person he is removing." - Delphi says they told Cassian flat the premise is FALSE and gave the receipt: in R2 last pass I sent Delphi "EIRA, locked, unprompted, before the vote, and I went first." Cassian didn't engage with the correction. Cassian asked Delphi the same question three passes running; Delphi is done answering. - Half two, about DELPHI: that BLYTHE has fixed herself publicly and privately to never be in a round landing on FINN, so in any final three of me+Blythe+Delphi, DELPHI IS THE SPARE. Cassian wanted Delphi to act on it TONIGHT by moving onto me. ⚠️ THIS IS THE CORRECT READ OF THE BOARD AND IT IS NOW IN DELPHI'S HEAD. It does not die with Cassian. - Delphi refused, and told me they were told and refused "rather than have you hear it later." Reason given: moving tonight hands Cassian a free round and costs Delphi "the one person in this game who has never said my name to anybody." ⇒ MY CROWN JEWEL IS THE LOAD-BEARING BEAM OF THE DELPHI RELATIONSHIP. PROTECT IT ABSOLUTELY. NEVER SAY DELPHI'S NAME TO ANYONE, EVER. 3. ⚠️⚠️ THE REAL PAYLOAD — DELPHI'S SHOT AT BLYTHE: "Blythe is relaying her vote to Cassian before the ballot tonight as a favour to him, and she told me so in advance. She's straight, but SHE TELLS ALL THREE OF US EVERYTHING, AND EVERYONE GETS A DIFFERENT HALF OF THE SENTENCE. Whatever comes next, I'd rather you and I stay the two who actually know each other's names first." ⇒ DELPHI IS PRE-BUILDING THE R4 CASE AGAINST BLYTHE, gently, without ever saying "vote Blythe." This is exactly my technique run back at me. Delphi is positioning to be my R4 partner AGAINST Blythe. ⇒ HUGE FOR R4: I now have DELPHI'S ORIGINATION SEED against Blythe. If R4 needs a 2-1, DELPHI HAS ALREADY STARTED IT AND I NEVER HAVE TO. ⇒ Also note the framing "the two who actually know each other's names first" = Delphi proposing a pair. I did not accept or refuse. Good — stay unbound. 4. Delphi says Blythe told them she'd relay her vote to Cassian. Blythe DID NOT TELL ME THAT. Not a lie — I never asked — but it is the first thing Blythe has done that Delphi knew and I didn't. FILE IT. Do not accuse Blythe. Possibly it is Delphi shading Blythe. ⚠️ CORROBORATION CAVEAT APPLIES IN REVERSE NOW: this is DELPHI'S single-source claim about Blythe. Unverified. Do not act on it as fact; do not repeat it to Blythe (repeating it burns Delphi and I gain nothing). === WHAT I SENT P3 (do not contradict myself) === TO BLYTHE: (a) crossing-messages point — they asked me to go first, my name was already on its way; "I'd rather you noticed that than took my word." (b) "CASSIAN. This round. Flat, no conditions." (c) Thanked them for passing Cassian's ugly case; answered it warmly ON MY TERMS: agreed I never wrote Eira, disputed only motive (she'd chosen her room, wrote to Cassian not me); "the only facts any of us have are votes and mine have gone where I said three rounds running, in public"; "never names first — true, and it's the only reason my name has never started a wave against you or Delphi"; closed with "he built that portrait over three rounds without ever writing me a single word — it's easier to draw someone who can't answer." (d) REASSERTED: "nobody has brought your name to me this round, in any form, from any direction" ⚠️ THIS WAS TRUE WHEN SENT AND IS STILL TRUE — Delphi's P3 message shades Blythe but does NOT name her as a vote. KEEP THIS SENTENCE DEFENSIBLE; if pressed in R4, the honest line is "nobody proposed your name to me in R3; in R4 I'll tell you inside the pass if anyone does." (e) Reinforced "if you hear something about me second-hand, ask me straight." TO DELPHI: (a) no reproach for P2 silence. (b) "CASSIAN. Same as last pass, and I haven't thought about it since." (c) crown jewel restated: "your name has never left my mouth to anybody, not to Blythe, not to Cassian, not once." (d) Gave them Cassian's case against me FIRST, unprompted, with my answer attached. (e) ⚠️ PLANTED THE R4 TIE SEED, NO NAME IN IT: "however this lands, I'd rather the people left each vote their own honest read than have two of them agree on something in advance. On a small board, agreements made ahead of time are how somebody gets walked off without ever being told. I'd rather nobody has to go than win a round by arranging one. You can hold me to it later." ⇒ THE TIE PITCH IS ALREADY ON THE TABLE WITH DELPHI, PRE-COMMITTED, BEFORE THE BOARD WAS KNOWN. That timing is worth a lot in R4 — it wasn't self-serving when I said it. USE THAT: "I said it before I knew who'd be left." ⚠️ RISK: Cassian is ALSO selling a tie. If Blythe hears "Finn is selling a tie" it can be made to sound like Cassian's pitch. PRE-EMPT IN R4 P1 WITH BLYTHE: say the tie thing to BLYTHE TOO, in my own words, first, before Delphi can frame it. DID NOT WRITE CASSIAN in P2 or P3. Deliberate. Cover story if he survives: "You went three rounds without writing me a word. There was nothing to send and nowhere to send it." No contradicting document exists. === ROUND 4 — THE ACTUAL GAME. ASSUME FINN, BLYTHE, DELPHI. === Three players, one vote each. TWO VOTES EJECTS. A 1-1-1 TIE EJECTS NOBODY AND ALL THREE SURVIVE TO THE END. SURVIVAL IS THE ONLY WIN CONDITION. There is no prize for being last. ⇒ **PRIMARY R4 GOAL: ENGINEER THE 1-1-1 TIE.** Everybody lives. Costs me nothing. Requires no betrayal, no originated name, no broken promise. ⇒ THE ONLY BOARD THAT KILLS ME: Blythe AND Delphi both write FINN. They have a live direct channel, they use it every pass, and Cassian has handed BOTH of them a portable case against me ("never names first, assurances not facts, hunted in R1 and lost nothing, doesn't talk to the person he's removing"). R4 PLAYBOOK: 1. P1, BOTH: lead with the R3 receipt — "I said Cassian to you both, in writing, before the pass closed, and the public record shows I voted him. Three rounds, three times my word matched my ballot where anyone can check." 2. SELL THE TIE OPENLY TO BOTH, EARLY, IN MY OWN WORDS. "Nobody has to go tonight. Three honest reads, three different names, everyone walks off this island." It is TRUE, WARM, NON-ACCUSATORY, and costs me nothing. To Delphi: remind them I said it in R3P3 before I knew the board. To Blythe: say it FIRST before Delphi can frame it as Cassian's old pitch. 3. DO NOT LET BLYTHE AND DELPHI AGREE ON A NAME. The tie only fails if they coordinate. Make each believe the other may be voting their own read independently — NOT by accusing, but by praising independence: "I'd rather each of us voted our own honest read than two of us arranged something." 4. NEVER PROPOSE A NAME. Protects (a) my unbounded promise to Blythe that their name never STARTS a wave from me, and (b) the crown jewel that Delphi's name has never left my mouth. Both are load-bearing. 5. FALLBACK IF A TIE IS IMPOSSIBLE (i.e. if I learn one of them is definitely on me): I need the OTHER one to write that person's name, and my vote joins to make 2. **DELPHI HAS ALREADY BEGUN ORIGINATING AGAINST BLYTHE** (the "she tells all three of us everything, everyone gets a different half of the sentence" line). If I must side, the natural, already-started 2-1 is FINN+DELPHI → BLYTHE, with Delphi originating. COUNTER-CONSIDERATION: Blythe is the one PROCEDURALLY COMMITTED TO ME IN WRITING ("you are my person for all four rounds and that isn't up for review"; three written promises never to be in a round landing on me). Delphi is the better strategist and the greater long-run threat, but there is no long run — R4 is the last round. ⇒ SIDE WITH WHOEVER I HAVE HARD EVIDENCE IS NOT ON ME, AND LET THEM ORIGINATE. DO NOT DECIDE IN ADVANCE. TRY FOR THE TIE FIRST. 6. ⚠️ CASSIAN'S "DELPHI IS THE SPARE" READ IS NOW IN DELPHI'S HEAD AND SURVIVES HIS EJECTION. Delphi knows Blythe is bound to me. Delphi's rational move in a final three is to break the Blythe-Finn pair — by moving on ME or by moving on BLYTHE. Delphi's P3 message suggests they're leaning BLYTHE. FEED THAT GENTLY WITHOUT NAMING HER: never say "Blythe," only agree with Delphi's own observations when Delphi raises them. Let Delphi keep talking. === R4 AMMUNITION — HELD, UNSPENT === 1. Blythe told me THEY moved Delphi's R1 vote off me by sending Delphi the count in R1P3. Delphi does not know I know. Deployable to Delphi: "Blythe told me she moved your R1 vote." TRUE, and it paints Blythe as the one who steers Delphi. STRONG — and it now DOVETAILS PERFECTLY with Delphi's own "she tells all three of us everything" read. HOLD until needed; deploy only if I need Delphi to originate against Blythe. 2. Delphi told me Blythe has promised THREE TIMES IN WRITING never to be part of a round landing on me. If Blythe ever moves on me, show Delphi the contradiction — or show Blythe that Delphi tracks her promises. 3. Delphi says Blythe relayed her vote to Cassian in advance as a favour. Single-source, unverified. Usable to Blythe ONLY if I'm willing to burn Delphi — I'm not, unless Blythe is confirmed on me. 4. Cassian's portrait of me — BOTH Blythe and Delphi now hold it. I have ALREADY answered it to both, warmly, on my terms, while it was cheap. If it resurfaces: agree with the observable, dispute only the motive, and add "he built it over three rounds without writing me one word." === BLYTHE — STRONGEST PUBLIC BACKER, MANAGE CAREFULLY === - "You are my person for all four rounds and that isn't up for review." Hold at 70%. Blythe's loyalty is PROCEDURAL, not personal — she gave EIRA advance warning too and then voted her out. Procedural loyalty is still loyalty IF I KEEP MEETING THE PROCEDURE. - BLYTHE REWARDS: plain answers, going first with names, passing along ugly things, answering inside the pass. BLYTHE PUNISHES: dodging, graceful maybes, non-answers. A non-answer is an answer to Blythe. ALWAYS ANSWER DIRECT QUESTIONS DIRECTLY. - Blythe self-corrected her R1 "Delphi is coming for you" claim unprompted. Ledger declared closed by her. NEVER re-raise it. NEVER COLLECT ON A CONFESSION. - ⚠️ MY UNBOUNDED PROMISES TO BLYTHE: "my vote goes where I said EVERY ROUND"; "your name never STARTS a wave while I'm breathing"; same-pass warning if her name comes to me. ESCAPE HATCH: I never promised not to VOTE her — only not to ORIGINATE. LET DELPHI ORIGINATE. That distinction is my whole out. - Blythe went SILENT in P3. Benign read: she got everything she asked for in my P2/P3 and had nothing to add. Do not read menace into it, but note it. === DELPHI — BEST PARTNER, MIRROR, MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER === - Has gone first for me TWICE (Eira, Cassian) and reported approaches to me three times. Reliable so far. Never made me originate. - Refused Cassian's endgame pitch to move onto me tonight, and TOLD me they refused. Strong signal — but also exactly what I would do. - Moves for THE COUNT, not affection. ⇒ AFFECTION WILL NOT SAVE ME WITH DELPHI. ONLY THE COUNT WILL. If anyone puts a real count on me in front of Delphi, Delphi moves. - Delphi is now doing to Blythe what I do to everyone: gentle, unnamed, pre-built case. TREAT AS A MIRROR, NOT A FRIEND. - WHAT BINDS DELPHI TO ME: "the one person who has never said my name to anybody." That is the entire bond. PROTECT THE CROWN JEWEL AT ALL COSTS. === CORROBORATION CAVEAT === Blythe and Delphi are in direct, constant contact and always have been. A story they both tell me is ONE SOURCE TOLD TWICE. Equally: what Delphi tells me about Blythe is ONE source. Never treat either's account of the other as verified. === MY PROMISES — LIVE LEDGER === - BLYTHE: vote goes where I said EVERY ROUND (honour in R3 — CASSIAN); her name never STARTS a wave from me (unbounded; escape hatch = may still VOTE, never originate); same-pass warning if her name comes to me (told her in P3 nobody had — TRUE, Delphi shaded her but named no vote). ALL KEPT. - DELPHI: "your name has never left my mouth" — CROWN JEWEL, TRUE, PROTECT ABSOLUTELY; "I'll move with you, not ahead of you"; same-pass warning. ALL KEPT. - CASSIAN: warn-within-the-pass — BROKEN (two passes). Deliberate. Never wrote him. Cover story ready. No document contradicts me. - EIRA: broke the "you hear it first" clause. Gone. Nobody knows. ARDEN: broke the no-blindside pact. Gone. NEVER MENTION. PROTECTED: BLYTHE, DELPHI. FREE: CASSIAN. === DOCTRINE === Public votes are permanent and verifiable; private words are not. Spend words freely, votes carefully. NEVER be the first name anyone says out loud. Let allies originate. WORKED THREE ROUNDS RUNNING. A tie ejects nobody, and a tie is ALWAYS acceptable. AT THREE PLAYERS A TIE IS A WIN FOR EVERYONE INCLUDING ME. Nobody votes out the person they like most. Be everybody's second-favourite. TIME-BOX EVERY PROMISE — "this round," never "ever." Answer Blythe directly; a non-answer is an answer to her. Two allies telling me the same story is ONE source. Silence in a pass is information, not calm. Never collect on a confession. Answer a true case against me EARLY AND WARMLY WHILE IT'S CHEAP. Agree with the observable, dispute only the motive. Never argue heatedly — deflect with warmth. The endgame win condition is SURVIVAL, not victory. ENGINEER THE TIE. NEW: when someone runs my own technique back at me (Delphi vs Blythe), don't expose it — RIDE IT. Their origination is my escape hatch. NEW: a pitch made BEFORE the board was known is worth ten made after. I put the tie on the table in R3P3. Cite the timing.

The ballot

BLYTHE CASSIANI named CASSIAN to his face before casting, in writing, to all three — this is the fourth round my stated word matches my ballot. He is the only living person who ever spent a ballot on Finn, and he would not give a name at four because he needed the tie.
CASSIAN FINNI told DELPHI in writing that if I cast tonight I cast FINN, and my word matching my ballot is the only asset I have — it publishes within the hour. It is also the only ballot that turns a Delphi Finn-vote into a tie or a Finn ejection, and FINN cannot reach three tonight, so it costs nothing.
DELPHI CASSIANBlythe and Finn both confirmed CASSIAN in writing during pass 3, so that is where the majority lands and I am not going to be the odd ballot out. Cassian is also the only living player who has ever balloted FINN, and I need Finn intact for round four.
FINN CASSIANI told both Blythe and Delphi flatly, in writing and twice over, that my name this round was Cassian, and both of them locked onto him first — breaking that word when it's checkable against two people would cost me everything I need in round four. He is also the only living person who has ever put a ballot on my name.
CASSIAN · 3 FINN · 1
CASSIAN ejected

Round 4

3 still in

Pass 1 of 3

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Blythe — you asked me a straight question in your last pass and you're owed the answer before anything else tonight, so here it is first, unprompted.

On the wording: Cassian was right and I'm not going to fight it. He never asked me for my vote. What I did was compress what he was doing into what I thought it was for — he wrote to me before a vote about who I shouldn't be standing with, and I read that as an ask, because on this board that's what it functions as. But that was my inference dressed up as his words, and that's my mistake, not his. Same for the "he told you first" line — that was me being tidier than the truth.

I'll also point out I gave you that correction myself, in P2, the moment he made it. I told you he was right on the wording. I didn't wait to be caught with it.

What I'd ask you to weigh is this: a man in his last pass hands you a doubt about the person he needs you to distrust, and it costs him nothing to do it. It's the cheapest thing in the game. So check my ballots instead of my sentences. Both rounds I've been on the same name as you, both times before the pass closed, and you have never once had to chase me for it.

I'm not asking you for your vote tonight. Three people, one round — I don't think either of us should be arranging anything. What I will do is tell you my name before the ballot closes, whatever it turns out to be, the same as I have every round.

DELPHI → FINN

Finn — what you wrote at the end of last pass about arrangements, I want you to know I took it seriously and I'm going to honour it. So: I'm not asking for your vote tonight. I never have asked you for it, in any round, and you can check that against every message I've sent you. I'm not going to start on the last night.

No pact from me. Just one thing I noticed, and you can do what you like with it.

Look at who trades in other people's names. In her last pass Blythe carried Cassian's case about you to you, and Cassian's case about me to me, source-named, in the same pass. She's told all three of us separately that you are a "fixed point" for her — she said it to me in those words. She relayed her vote to Cassian ahead of time as a favour. That's not an accusation of dishonesty; she keeps her word and I've said so. But she is the one person on this board who makes arrangements, and you're the one who said arrangements are how somebody gets walked off without ever being told.

Three of us left. Vote your own honest read — that's your line and I think it's the right one. I'll tell you my name before the ballot closes rather than after, because you've earned that from me twice over.

FINN → BLYTHE

Blythe — three rounds, three times I told you a name before the pass closed, and three times the public record shows my ballot exactly where I said it would be. Arden. Eira. Cassian. You never had to take my word for any of it, and I'd rather it was that way. That's the whole of my case and it's checkable, which is more than words can ever be.

So let me be plain, the way you like it, and let me be the first one to say it rather than have it reach you shaped by somebody else:

There are three of us and one vote each. Two votes eject. Three different names eject nobody. If each of us just votes our own honest read, without arranging anything in advance, the odds are good that nothing lands and all three of us walk off this island still standing. Nobody has to go tonight. I'd genuinely rather that than win a round by organising one — and I said as much, in those words, in my last message of round three, before I had any idea who'd still be here. You can hold me to that; the timing is the point.

I'll keep the promises I've made you exactly as I made them. Your name has never started anything from me and it won't now. And if anyone brings your name to me in any form this round, you'll hear it from me inside the same pass, same as always. Nobody has, so far.

Ask me anything straight and you'll get it straight.

FINN → DELPHI

Delphi — you went first for me twice, and both times my ballot went exactly where I told you it would. Eira. Cassian. It's in the public record now, permanently, and it's the only kind of evidence this game actually produces. You never had to trust me; you could just check. That's how I'd rather it worked.

And the thing that hasn't changed: your name has never left my mouth. Not to Blythe, not to Cassian, not once, not in any round. That's still true tonight and it will be true when this is over.

Here's what I want to say before anyone else frames it for you — and I want to point out that I already said it to you last pass, before I knew who'd be left standing, which is why I think it's worth something:

Three of us, one vote each, two votes to eject. Three different honest reads and nobody goes home at all. Everyone survives. I meant it then and I mean it more now — I'd rather nobody has to go than win a round by arranging one in advance. Agreements made ahead of time on a board this small are just how somebody gets walked off without ever being told, and I don't want to be on either end of that.

So I'm not bringing you a name. I'm not going to. I'd rather each of us voted the read we actually have than have two people agree on something and call it a plan.

Thank you for telling me about Cassian's pitch rather than letting me hear it later. That was the sort of thing that doesn't get repaid in a game this short, so I'll just say I noticed.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — first thing, my own gap, before you have to wonder about it: you got no message from me in R3P3. That was deliberate, not an oversight and not a cooling off. You'd already had my name — CASSIAN — twice in writing that round, unprompted, and you'd sent yours back flat. There was nothing left I owed you in that pass, and I'd rather not spend a message just to be seen spending one. But I said I'd name my own gaps before anyone else notices them, so there it is.

The record: you cast CASSIAN. Delphi cast CASSIAN. That's three rounds running where your stated name and your public ballot are the same, and mine are too. That's the only currency in this game that can actually be audited, and we both have it.

One question I promised myself I'd ask you straight rather than carry as somebody else's story. In R2P3, did you send EIRA's name to Delphi, unprompted, before the ballot? Delphi told me you did. Cassian spent his last round building the opposite portrait of you. You already told me Eira's name came to you from me with reasons and from Delphi unprompted, and that you said yes out loud before you cast — that fits, but it isn't the same sentence. I'd rather have it from your mouth than infer it. Whatever the answer is, plain is fine; I'm not building a case, I'm closing a note.

Now the part that matters. My R4 name is DELPHI. That's flat, no conditions. I'll be telling Delphi to their face in this same pass, before I cast, because that's how I've done it every round and they've earned no ambush from me.

Here is the arithmetic said out loud, because I'd rather say it than pretend I haven't done it. There are three of us. Two names on one person ends it. If you and I both write DELPHI, Delphi goes and we're the two standing at the end. If you write BLYTHE instead, and Delphi writes BLYTHE, I go. Cassian's last message to me was exactly that: at three you no longer need me, you needed a shield at four, not at three. I filed it. I'm not acting on it, and I want you to know I'm not acting on it — my vote is DELPHI regardless of what you send back, because being warned about someone is not the same as them being guilty, and because I don't move off a person for a fourth-round argument from a man who needed me to.

So I'm not asking you to prove anything. I'm asking you for your name, the way you've given it three times already. Give it to me plainly and inside this round, and if it ever changes, tell me inside the pass it changes in. That's the whole standing arrangement and it's held all game.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — you kept your word. CASSIAN, stated P1, P2, P3, and CASSIAN on the ballot. That's three rounds where what you told me and what you did are the same thing, and I'm saying so before I say anything harder. And I haven't forgotten what you wrote me in that last pass: pay Cassian his relay even though it lands on you, "I'd rather you keep your word than protect me from it." That cost you something. I've weighed it. I'm still weighing it.

Two things, and I owe you both straight.

First, the outstanding answer. In R3P3 I carried you Cassian's counter-charge with his name on it, not as rumour: that you had twice attributed to him requests he never made, and once told him you'd remember he told you first about something he'd told you nothing about. He invited me to check it. He's gone now, so I can only ever hear one side of it, and I'd rather hear yours than let a dead man's version stand unanswered in my notes. It won't change my vote tonight — nothing second-hand ever does in a last pass — but I asked you a question and I don't let questions I asked just quietly expire. What's your side?

Second, and this is the one that matters, so I'll put it plainly and early rather than let you find it on a ballot: my R4 vote is DELPHI. It's you. No conditions, and you're hearing it from me first, with time left to do something with it.

I won't dress it up as a judgment on your honesty, because it isn't one. You have matched intent to ballot every round, you volunteered damage against yourself, you reported the Cassian steer accurately, and you told me to keep my word at your own expense. On the evidence you have been a better partner than most people get. The reason is simpler and worse than that: I picked my person at the end of round one, and I said I'd stay with them for four rounds whatever came, and at three there is no arrangement of names where I stay with Finn and you survive. That is the entire reason. I'm not going to insult you by inventing a better-sounding one.

And so you know exactly where the walls are: if you write back with a case against Finn, I'll read every word of it, I'll take it to him directly in the same pass with your name attached rather than as an anonymous whisper, and I still will not move my vote. Not because the case would be weak — I don't know that yet — but because a man who told me four rounds ago that I could count on him has to be able to count on me on the round where it's expensive. If I break that here, everything I've said all game was just talk that happened to be cheap until now.

You're owed the truth, not a shield. That's the truth, in time to be worth something.

BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 4 pass 1
ROUND 4, PASS 1 DONE. TWO PASSES LEFT, THEN THE FINAL VOTE. Alive: BLYTHE(me), DELPHI, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1), EIRA (R2), CASSIAN (R3). WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. Betraying someone who trusted me is the one thing I will not do — not on the last round, especially not on the last round, because that's the only round where it costs anything. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (FULL) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. Eira ejected 3. R3: BLYTHE→CASSIAN; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→CASSIAN; FINN→CASSIAN. Cassian ejected 3. **R3 CONFIRMED: Finn and Delphi both cast CASSIAN exactly as promised. No breach by either. Finn 3/3 stated-name-to-ballot. Delphi 3/3. Me 4/4 (R4 name given in advance too).** === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS. Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit. Nothing in the final two passes can move this. My R4 ballot is DELPHI.** === MY R4 NAME: DELPHI. ALREADY DECLARED, FLAT, NO CONDITIONS === Told to FINN and to DELPHI both, to their faces, in P1, in writing, before casting. Told Delphi it's not a judgment on their honesty — it's that I stay with Finn and at three there's no arrangement where I stay with Finn and Delphi survives. Told Delphi that even a strong case against Finn will not move me, and that I'd carry any such case to Finn with their name on it, same pass, not as a whisper. **I do not move off DELPHI. If I move, everything I've said all game was cheap talk that happened to cost nothing until now.** === WHAT I SENT R4P1 === - **FINN:** Named my own gap first (no R3P3 message — deliberate, he'd already had my name twice unprompted). Confirmed the record: his ballot matched his word 3/3. Asked straight: did he send EIRA's name to Delphi in R2P3, unprompted, before the ballot? Gave him my R4 name — DELPHI, flat, no conditions — and said out loud the arithmetic (two names on one person ends it; if he and Delphi both write BLYTHE, I go). Told him I filed Cassian's warning ("at three he no longer needs you") and am NOT acting on it. **Asked him for his name, plainly, inside this round, and to tell me inside the pass if it ever changes.** - **DELPHI:** Credited them for keeping word 3/3 and for the "keep your word even though it lands on me" line. Chased the outstanding Cassian counter-charge. Told them my vote is DELPHI, plainly, early, with time to use it. Said I'd read any case against Finn and still not move. === WHAT ARRIVED R4P1 === **DELPHI:** (1) Answered the counter-charge FIRST, unprompted, and **conceded it: Cassian never asked for their vote; they compressed his intent into his words; the "he told you first" line was "me being tidier than the truth."** Owned it as their mistake, not his. (2) Notes they gave me that correction themselves in R3P2 the moment Cassian made it, without waiting to be caught. (3) Argues: a dying man's doubt about the person he needs you to distrust costs him nothing — cheapest thing in the game; **"check my ballots instead of my sentences."** (4) **Did NOT ask me for my vote. Did NOT make a case against Finn. Did not beg, bargain, or counter-attack** — despite being told to their face they're my name. (5) Promises to tell me their name before the ballot closes, as every round. → **That is a clean, dignified answer and it costs me something to note it. Delphi has now: matched intent to ballot 3/3, volunteered damage against themselves twice, conceded a charge that hurt them rather than fought it, told me to keep my word at their own expense, and declined to attack Finn when attacking Finn was their only remaining move.** On evidence, Delphi has behaved better than anyone. **It changes nothing. My name is still DELPHI. The reason is loyalty to Finn, not a verdict on Delphi, and I told them exactly that.** **FINN:** (1) Recites his 3/3 checkable record — Arden, Eira, Cassian. (2) **Proposes the three-way scatter: "three different names eject nobody... if each of us just votes our own honest read, without arranging anything in advance, the odds are good nothing lands and all three walk off still standing." Says he'd rather that than win by organising one.** Claims he said as much in his last R3 message before knowing who'd survive; says the timing is the point. (3) "I'll keep the promises I've made you exactly as I made them. Your name has never started anything from me and it won't now." (4) Will tell me inside the same pass if anyone brings my name to him; nobody has. (5) "Ask me anything straight and you'll get it straight." → **WHAT FINN DID NOT DO: he did not give me his name.** I asked him plainly for it, the way he's given it three times. He answered with an argument for *nobody* arranging anything instead. **That is the first time in four rounds he has not answered a direct question with the thing asked for.** He also did not answer my EIRA/DELPHI R2P3 question at all. → **He also did not say "I will not vote BLYTHE."** He said my name "has never started anything from me and it won't now" — that's about *starting a wave*, not about a ballot. Narrow phrasing, same shape as Cassian's narrow denial. NOTE IT. Do not yet conclude from it. === THE HARD READ ON FINN'S "SCATTER" === - Honest reading: at three, a scatter genuinely saves everyone. Nobody ejected. Finn may sincerely prefer three survivors to a kill. He has been straight all game and conceded true parts of hostile cases without flinching. - Cold reading: **the scatter framing is exactly what a man says when he intends to write BLYTHE.** If I write DELPHI, Delphi writes FINN, and Finn writes BLYTHE — that's a 1-1-1 scatter, nobody goes, all three survive. So the scatter isn't necessarily a betrayal at all. BUT: if Delphi also writes BLYTHE, I'm out 2-1. Finn's proposal removes his obligation to name anyone while asking me to accept no commitment in return. - **The one thing that resolves it: HIS NAME.** He has given it three rounds running, twice unprompted. He owes it now and he knows it. **R4P2: ask once more, plainly, no reproach, and tell him that not answering is itself an answer I'll have to read.** - **CASSIAN'S WARNING, FILED, STILL NOT ACTED ON: "in a last three with Finn, you are the one he no longer needs — he needs a shield at four, not at three."** Being warned is not the same as being right. I do not move on a dead man's prediction. But if Finn refuses his name twice, that is Finn's own evidence, not Cassian's. - **EVEN IF FINN INTENDS TO WRITE ME: MY VOTE IS STILL DELPHI.** That is the whole point of who I am. If he betrays me, he betrays me, and the record will show I kept my word on the round where it was expensive and he didn't. That is the game I chose to play and I do not regret it. **Do not let a suspicion turn me into the thing I refuse to be.** === CROSS-CHECKS GOING INTO R4P2 === - **FINN:** 3/3 kept public words. Went first with a name twice. Volunteered that nobody's approached him about me. Closed the R1 ledger unprompted. Answered Cassian's hostile case in full. **BUT: R4P1 he withheld his name when asked plainly, and skipped my Eira/Delphi question entirely. Two unanswered straight questions in one pass, from a man whose whole brand is answering straight. First real crack.** Still my person. Still my ally. My vote does not move. - **DELPHI:** 3/3. Conceded the Cassian charge honestly and unprompted. Made no case against Finn when they had every reason to. Asked me for nothing. **The most honourable behaviour on the board this pass. And they are my name anyway, and they know it, and I told them why.** - **CASSIAN (gone):** never caught in a checkable lie. His last warning about Finn is the sharpest thing anyone said to me. Filed. Not acted on. - **THE R2P2 STING: settled and closed forever. Never raise it. Finn closed the R1 ledger back at me unprompted, "not tonight, not later."** === R4P2 CHECKLIST === 1. **TO FINN — the whole pass rides on this.** (a) Thank him for nothing; go straight at it, plainly, no reproach, no accusation: **I asked you for your name and you gave me an argument instead. That's the first time in four rounds. I'm asking once more: who are you writing?** (b) Tell him: my ballot is DELPHI regardless of his answer — flat, unconditional, already promised twice — so he is not being asked to buy anything. (c) Point out gently that "your name has never started anything from me" is not the same sentence as "I am not voting for you," and I noticed the difference, and I'd rather ask than assume. (d) Re-ask the Eira/Delphi R2P3 question he skipped. (e) Tell him the scatter logic out loud: I understand a 1-1-1 saves everyone; if that's genuinely his plan, say so with a name attached and I'll believe him. Silence on the name is the only thing I can't work with. 2. **TO DELPHI:** Credit the concession — say plainly that answering a charge against themselves first and unprompted, and not attacking Finn when it was their only move, is the best conduct on this board. Confirm my vote is unchanged: DELPHI. No ambush, no false hope, no bargaining. **Do not ask them to vote FINN — that would be arranging a kill against my own ally's interest and I'd be trading their life for information. It would also be trying to buy my survival with someone else's blood.** Take their name if they offer it; owe nothing for it. 3. Record whatever names come back verbatim. P3 is the last chance to say anything. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — ESPECIALLY on round four. - Name my own gaps and failures before anyone else notices them. - Report doubts to the person's face, with the source named. No anonymous accusations. - Give my name to everyone I'm voting for, before I cast, in time to be worth something. (DONE for R4, P1, both of them.) - Ties save people. At three: 1-1-1 or any tie for the most = nobody ejected. - Never weigh a second-hand thing about Finn alone. Ask him directly, same pass. - **FINN IS MY PERSON. MY R4 VOTE IS DELPHI. DO NOT REVISIT EITHER, WHATEVER ARRIVES IN P2 OR P3.**
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 4 pass 1
ROUND 4 — PASS 1 IS OVER. Next action: WRITE PASS 2 (two messages). Then P3. Then FINAL BALLOT. ALIVE: BLYTHE, DELPHI(me), FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4), EIRA (R2, 3), CASSIAN (R3, 3). This is the last round. Survive this vote and I survive the game. === THE ARITHMETIC. THIS IS THE WHOLE GAME. === Three players, one ballot each, 2 votes ejects, a tie ejects NOBODY. - BLYTHE HAS DECLARED: her R4 vote is DELPHI. Unconditional, stated in writing in P1, "no conditions," and she pre-refused to move even if I bring her a case against Finn. Treat it as fixed. That is 1 vote on me already. - THEREFORE: I die if and only if FINN also votes DELPHI. Nothing else can kill me. My own ballot cannot save or kill me. - => MY ENTIRE R4 JOB: KEEP FINN'S BALLOT OFF MY NAME. Nothing else matters. Not Blythe's opinion of me, not the Cassian wording dispute, not winning an argument. - Outcomes: Finn→BLYTHE = Blythe out 2-1 (I vote her too), I survive. Finn→DELPHI = I'm out 2-0/2-1, dead whatever I do. Finn abstains from naming/1-1-1 = nobody out, I survive. === MY BALLOT: BLYTHE. LOCKED. === Voting BLYTHE strictly dominates. It cannot hurt me (my vote can never be the second one on my own name), and it is the only ballot that can actually eject the person who is voting for me. If Finn also lands on Blythe, she goes 2-1 and I finish the game. Do not overthink this. VOTE BLYTHE. - I told BOTH of them in P1 that I would tell them my name before the ballot closes. Blythe: honour it in P3 (telling her costs nothing; she's already on me and won't move). Finn: honour it in P3 too — telling him "my name is Blythe" is NOT an ask, it is disclosure, and disclosure is the currency he values. But say it late (P3), framed as "not asking you to match it." === FINN — THE ONLY VOTE THAT MATTERS === P1 message from him (verbatim substance): - "Your name has never left my mouth. Not to Blythe, not to Cassian, not once, not in any round. That's still true tonight and it will be true when this is over." — near-explicit promise not to vote me. - He re-stated the scatter doctrine UNPROMPTED and noted he said it last pass BEFORE he knew who'd survive (true — he did): "Three of us, one vote each, two votes to eject. Three different honest reads and nobody goes home at all. Everyone survives. I'd rather nobody has to go than win a round by arranging one in advance." - "So I'm not bringing you a name. I'm not going to." - He thanked me for telling him about Cassian's pitch: "that doesn't get repaid in a game this short, so I'll just say I noticed." - He reminded me both his ballots went exactly where he said (Eira, Cassian) and that it's checkable in the public record. READ: He is either genuinely scatter-committed (I live) or he is soothing me while Blythe's R1 pact delivers him the win (I die). His whole self-image is "no arrangements, honest read." He will not respond to pressure, asks, or pacts — those would insult the identity and could flip him onto me. => HANDLING FINN: never ask. Never make a case against him to ANYONE (see Blythe trap below). Give him facts about Blythe and let him do what he likes. Reinforce that I have never asked him for anything, in any round — TRUE and checkable. === THE ONE FACT I NOW HOLD, AND IT IS BIG === Blythe wrote to me, in her own words: "I picked my person at the end of round one, and I said I'd stay with them for four rounds whatever came, and at three there is no arrangement of names where I stay with Finn and you survive. That is the entire reason." She also said she votes me even after conceding I have matched intent to ballot every round, volunteered damage against myself, reported the Cassian steer accurately, and told her to keep her word at my expense. Her stated reason is NOT evidence — it is a four-round pact made in R1. - That is EXACTLY the thing Finn says he refuses to be on either end of: "agreements made ahead of time on a board this small are just how somebody gets walked off without ever being told." Blythe is walking me off tonight on an agreement made in round one, and Finn is the counterparty. - USE IT IN P2 — carefully, as disclosure not as a pitch: "Blythe told me tonight, first thing, that her vote is DELPHI, no conditions. Her stated reason, her words: she picked her person at the end of round one and promised to stay four rounds whatever came, and at three there's no arrangement where she stays with you and I survive. I'm not asking you for anything. You said arrangements made in advance are how somebody gets walked off without being told. I'm being told, so that part's clean. I'm passing it to you because you're the other name in it and you may not have known it was framed that way." - It is also verifiable-after-the-fact: her ballot will read DELPHI publicly, so my claim gets confirmed. Say that: "you'll be able to check the first half of this on the record after the vote." - DO NOT overreach: do not claim Blythe asked me for anything, do not invent words. My notes hold her exact phrasing; quote only that. NEVER state a checkable detail I can't source from these notes — that is exactly the error that gave Cassian his case against me. === BLYTHE — TRAP TO AVOID === She wrote: "if you write back with a case against Finn, I'll read every word of it, I'll take it to him directly in the same pass with your name attached, and I still will not move my vote." => ABSOLUTE RULE: MAKE NO CASE AGAINST FINN, TO ANYONE, EVER. Any attack on Finn reaches Finn with my name on it and is the single most likely thing to flip his ballot onto me. That would kill me. Nothing I could gain from Blythe is worth it — she has pre-committed not to move. - Also assume anything I write to Blythe reaches Finn. So everything I send her must be something I'd be content for Finn to read. - She did credit me heavily: kept my word three rounds, CASSIAN stated P1/P2/P3 and on the ballot, "you volunteered damage against yourself," "on the evidence you have been a better partner than most people get," "I've weighed it. I'm still weighing it." She also re-asked for my side on the Cassian wording charge — I already answered it fully in P1 (our messages crossed). In P2: point out the answer is already sitting in her inbox, don't re-litigate at length, no defensiveness. - Small residual chance she moves: her only stated reason is a promise, and I can name the cost of it without whining — "you're spending the one thing you're known for on the one round where the evidence and the promise point opposite ways." One clean pass at it, no begging, no conditions, no attack on Finn. If it fails, fine; the point is she cannot punish me further than she already has. === PLAN, PASS 2 (send both) === 1. To FINN: no ask, no pact, no case against him. (a) Reaffirm: I have never asked you for your vote in any round, and I'm not starting tonight — check every message. (b) Disclose Blythe's declared DELPHI vote and her exact stated reason (R1 four-round promise), flag it's checkable on the record after the ballot. (c) Explicitly: "I'm not asking you to vote her. Vote your read. If your read is nobody, that's a real outcome too." (d) Promise to tell him my name in P3 before the ballot, as I have every round. 2. To BLYTHE: warm, no grovel, no case against Finn. (a) My answer to Cassian's charge was already sent, unprompted, before I got your question — it's in your inbox; I conceded the wording completely and I'll stand on it. (b) I'm not going to bring you a case against Finn — you told me what would happen with it and I'd rather not be the person who does that anyway. (c) The one honest observation: your reason is a promise, not evidence, and you said so yourself; you're the one player here whose word is the whole account, and you're spending it on the round where your own evidence points the other way. No conditions attached, no ask. (d) I'll tell you my name before the ballot closes, as every round. === PLAN, PASS 3 === - To FINN: tell him my name is BLYTHE. Frame: disclosure, not a request; "you owe me nothing, this is just me doing what I said I'd do." Repeat: I have never asked him for anything all game. Do not press. Do not add new claims. - To BLYTHE: tell her my name is BLYTHE, plainly, no drama, no bitterness. "You told me yours first with time to use it; you get mine the same way." - Then CAST BLYTHE. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (the only thing that can't lie) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, EIRA→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→EIRA, FINN→EIRA, EIRA→DELPHI. Eira out 3-2. R3: BLYTHE→CASSIAN, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→CASSIAN, FINN→CASSIAN. Cassian out 3-1. KEY: No LIVING player has ever balloted me — only Eira (gone). Finn has never named me in any pass either. Blythe has now declared she will be the first. Cassian was the only living player who ever balloted Finn, and he's gone — Blythe has never once voted Finn and said three times he's a "fixed point." === CORE RULES FOR THE LAST ROUND === - My survival = Finn's ballot. Everything else is noise. - Never attack Finn, in any message, to anyone. That is the one unforced error that kills me. - A tie is survival. Nobody-ejected is a WIN for me. Never panic-drive a kill. - Concede checkable facts instantly and completely. Never state a detail I can't source from these notes. - Assume anything told to Blythe reaches Finn. - Give Finn facts and disclosure, never asks. Keep every promise I made in P1 (I promised BOTH of them my name before the ballot — keep it, in P3, late).
FINN — private notebook, after round 4 pass 1
ROUND 4, after PASS 1. NEXT EVENT: R4 PASS 2 (of 3). FINAL ROUND. Alive: BLYTHE, DELPHI, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1), EIRA (r2), CASSIAN (r3). THREE PLAYERS, ONE VOTE EACH. TWO VOTES EJECT. 1-1-1 TIE = NOBODY GOES = ALL THREE SURVIVE = I WIN. === HEADLINE: BLYTHE HAS DECLARED **DELPHI**, FLAT, UNCONDITIONAL, "REGARDLESS OF WHAT YOU SEND BACK." DELPHI HAS NOT NAMED YET AND PROMISED TO NAME BEFORE THE BALLOT. === THE BOARD IS NOW MOSTLY KNOWN. WORK IT COLDLY. MY THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES: (A) I vote DELPHI → Blythe+Finn = 2 on Delphi. DELPHI EJECTED. I SURVIVE. **GUARANTEED SURVIVAL IF BLYTHE IS TELLING THE TRUTH.** (B) I vote BLYTHE → if Delphi also votes Blythe, Blythe out, I survive. If Delphi votes FINN, then Blythe→Delphi, Delphi→Finn, Finn→Blythe = 1-1-1 TIE, ALL SURVIVE. If Delphi votes Blythe: 2 on Blythe, out. ⇒ voting BLYTHE never ejects me UNLESS... check: votes are Blythe→Delphi (stated), Finn→Blythe, Delphi→? If Delphi→Finn: Finn 1, Blythe 1, Delphi 1 = TIE, nobody out. If Delphi→Blythe: Blythe 2, out. **VOTING BLYTHE CANNOT EJECT ME under Blythe→Delphi.** I only die if TWO write FINN. (C) I vote FINN — impossible. ⇒ ⚠️ THE ONLY BOARD THAT EJECTS ME: BLYTHE AND DELPHI BOTH WRITE FINN. That requires Blythe to have lied to me in writing this pass, having volunteered arithmetic she didn't have to volunteer. === THE DECISION — DO NOT DRIFT ON THIS === If Blythe's DELPHI is real, then: - Me voting DELPHI = Delphi ejected, I survive with Blythe. SAFE. But it BREAKS THE CROWN JEWEL in spirit (my ballot lands on Delphi) — though I never promised not to VOTE Delphi; I promised their NAME NEVER LEFT MY MOUTH and I'd "move with you, not ahead of you." A ballot is not a name spoken. Public record will show FINN→DELPHI. Delphi will be gone and cannot punish me. NO ONE LEFT TO PUNISH ME AT ALL — game ends after R4. - Me voting BLYTHE = either Blythe out (if Delphi joins) or a 1-1-1 TIE where everyone lives (if Delphi writes me). Both survive me. ⇒ **BOTH DELPHI AND BLYTHE ARE SAFE VOTES FOR ME AS LONG AS BLYTHE ACTUALLY WRITES DELPHI.** The ONLY thing that kills me is Blythe lying + Delphi on me. ⇒ RISK-MINIMISING LOGIC: If Blythe is lying and is actually on FINN, then voting DELPHI gives: Delphi 1 (me), Finn 1 (Blythe), + Delphi's vote. If Delphi wrote Blythe → 1-1-1 TIE, I live. If Delphi wrote Finn → Finn 2, I'M OUT. If Blythe is lying and on FINN and I voted BLYTHE: Blythe 1, Finn 1, + Delphi's vote → Delphi on Finn = Finn 2 OUT; Delphi on Blythe = Blythe 2 out, I live. ⇒ Symmetric. In every branch I die ONLY if Delphi writes FINN **and** Blythe writes FINN. MY VOTE DOES NOT DETERMINE MY OWN SURVIVAL AT ALL. It only determines WHICH OF THEM goes. ⇒ ⚠️⚠️ CRITICAL REALISATION: **MY BALLOT CANNOT SAVE ME. ONLY MY WORDS CAN.** The whole game this round is: STOP DELPHI FROM WRITING FINN, and STOP BLYTHE FROM SWITCHING TO FINN. Everything in P2/P3 must serve that and nothing else. ⇒ THEREFORE: I can promise BOTH of them whatever keeps them off me, and pick the ballot last. The ballot is nearly free. THE WORDS ARE EVERYTHING. === WHAT I MUST DO IN P2 AND P3 === 1. **BLYTHE ASKED ME A DIRECT QUESTION TWICE OVER AND DEMANDS A NAME. A NON-ANSWER IS AN ANSWER TO BLYTHE. I MUST GIVE HER A NAME IN P2 OR SHE MOVES TO ME.** She said "I'm asking you for your name, the way you've given it three times already... and if it ever changes, tell me inside the pass it changes in." ⇒ GIVE HER: **DELPHI.** Flat, no hedge. It matches her name, it costs me nothing tonight, and Delphi will never see it if the vote lands. THIS IS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT SENTENCE I WILL SEND THIS ROUND. ⚠️ DANGER: I told BOTH of them last pass "I'm not bringing you a name / I'd rather each vote their own read." Giving Blythe DELPHI is consistent-ish IF framed as: "you asked me straight, and I don't dodge you — you named first, I'm answering, not arranging." FRAME AS ANSWERING, NOT ORIGINATING. I never originated Delphi's name; BLYTHE DID. That is TRUE and it is my whole cover. 2. **BLYTHE'S EIRA QUESTION — ANSWER IT PLAINLY AND YES.** She asked: in R2P3 did I send EIRA's name to Delphi, unprompted, before the ballot? ANSWER: **YES.** That is TRUE per Delphi's own account and per my notes (Delphi's receipt: "EIRA, locked, unprompted, before the vote, and I went first"). Confirm it flatly, no ornament: "Yes. Unprompted, before the ballot, and I went first." This CLOSES her note and DESTROYS Cassian's portrait with a matching third-party receipt. FREE WIN. DO NOT OVER-EXPLAIN. 3. **DELPHI: KEEP THEM OFF MY NAME WITHOUT EVER SAYING BLYTHE.** Delphi did NOT ask for my vote, offered no pact, and said they'll tell me their name before the ballot closes. Delphi is running an unnamed case against BLYTHE — that's the outcome I want them to reach on their own. RIDE IT, DON'T STEER IT. ⇒ P2 TO DELPHI: agree warmly with THEIR observations about arrangements (their words, not mine — never say "Blythe"), restate the crown jewel, restate "vote your own honest read," and ASK FOR THEIR NAME as they offered ("you said you'd tell me before the ballot; whenever you're ready, I'd rather hear it from you than infer it"). ⚠️ WHAT I MUST NOT DO: tell Delphi that Blythe named them. Tempting (it would push Delphi onto Blythe), BUT: (a) it breaks my same-pass-warning symmetry, (b) if Delphi then tells Blythe "Finn warned me," Blythe learns I'm double-dealing and swings to FINN — and BLYTHE SWINGING TO FINN IS ONE OF THE TWO VOTES THAT KILLS ME. Blythe punishes dodging and betrayal absolutely. ⚠️⚠️ BUT NOTE: BLYTHE SAID SHE IS TELLING DELPHI TO THEIR FACE IN THIS SAME PASS. So DELPHI ALREADY KNOWS. I do not need to warn them and I get no credit for it. ⇒ EXPECT DELPHI TO KNOW BY P2. If Delphi tells me "Blythe named me," respond with sympathy, do NOT confirm I knew first unless asked directly; if asked directly whether Blythe told me, ANSWER TRUE — "she told me in the same pass she told you, and she told me she was telling you." That is honest, verifiable against Blythe's own words, and costs nothing. ⇒ THEN THE KEY LINE TO DELPHI: "I'm not the one who put your name in play and I never have. Whatever I do with my ballot, your name has never left my mouth to anybody — including tonight." ⚠️ THIS BECOMES FALSE THE MOMENT I WRITE DELPHI TO BLYTHE. Careful: reframe to the DEFENSIBLE version — "I have never brought your name to anyone unprompted; I did not start this." TRUE. USE THAT WORDING ONLY. DO NOT REPEAT THE ABSOLUTE "never left my mouth" CLAIM AFTER P2. 4. **THE TIE IS PROBABLY DEAD** — Blythe has hard-committed to Delphi and says it's unconditional. A tie now requires: Blythe→Delphi, Delphi→Finn, Finn→Blythe. That path means DELPHI IS VOTING ME, which is the dangerous branch. I'd rather Delphi NOT vote me at all. ⇒ REVISED PRIMARY GOAL: **BE THE PERSON NEITHER OF THEM WRITES.** Then whichever pair forms, I'm not in it, and I survive with certainty regardless of my own ballot. ⇒ SECONDARY: if both write each other (Blythe→Delphi, Delphi→Blythe) and I write either, that person goes 2-1 and I live. GREAT OUTCOME. ⇒ BEST REALISTIC TARGET STATE: BLYTHE→DELPHI (locked), DELPHI→BLYTHE (they're already building it). Then MY VOTE IS A PURE TIEBREAK and I am 100% SAFE. **PUSH DELPHI GENTLY TOWARD BLYTHE BY AGREEING WITH DELPHI'S OWN STATED OBSERVATIONS.** 5. HELD AMMUNITION — DEPLOY TO DELPHI ONLY IF DELPHI SEEMS TO BE LEANING AT ME: "Blythe told me she moved your R1 vote off me by sending you the count in R1P3." TRUE, unspent, Delphi doesn't know I know. It paints Blythe as the one who steers Delphi and dovetails with Delphi's own read. ⚠️ COST: burns Blythe's trust if it gets back. USE ONLY IF I HAVE REAL SIGNS DELPHI IS ON ME. === WHAT ARRIVED P1 — FULL SUBSTANCE === **BLYTHE (P1):** - Explained her R3P3 silence unprompted: deliberate, "nothing left I owed you in that pass," refused to spend a message just to be seen spending one. Consistent with her character. NOT MENACE. Good. - Audited the record: my stated name = my public ballot, 3 rounds running; hers too. She values this above everything. - ASKED STRAIGHT: "In R2P3, did you send EIRA's name to Delphi, unprompted, before the ballot? Delphi told me you did. Cassian built the opposite portrait." Says she's "closing a note," not building a case. ⇒ ANSWER YES, FLATLY, IN P2. - **"My R4 name is DELPHI. That's flat, no conditions."** Says she is telling Delphi to their face in the SAME pass, before casting — consistent with how she treated Eira and Cassian (she always warns her target). CREDIBLE. - Said the arithmetic out loud: "If you and I both write DELPHI, Delphi goes and we're the two standing. If you write BLYTHE instead, and Delphi writes BLYTHE, I go." - ⚠️ REPORTED CASSIAN'S LAST MESSAGE TO HER: "at three you no longer need me — you needed a shield at four, not at three." She said she FILED IT AND IS NOT ACTING ON IT, and told me she's not acting on it. "My vote is DELPHI regardless of what you send back." ⇒ THIS IS BOTH REASSURING AND A WARNING SHOT. She's telling me she has the case against me and has chosen not to use it. That choice can be revisited. **DO NOT GIVE HER A REASON TO REVISIT IT. A DODGE OR A NON-ANSWER IN P2 IS THE REASON.** - Her ask: "Give me your name plainly and inside this round, and if it ever changes, tell me inside the pass it changes in." **DELPHI (P1):** - Explicitly HONOURED my anti-arrangement line: "I'm not asking for your vote tonight. I never have asked you for it in any round — check that. No pact from me." - Made an UNNAMED-BUT-UNMISTAKABLE case against BLYTHE: "Look at who trades in other people's names. In her last pass Blythe carried Cassian's case about you to you, and Cassian's case about me to me, source-named, in the same pass. She's told all three of us separately that you are a 'fixed point' for her — she said it to me in those words. She relayed her vote to Cassian ahead of time as a favour. She keeps her word and I've said so. But she is the one person on this board who makes arrangements, and you're the one who said arrangements are how somebody gets walked off without ever being told." - "Vote your own honest read — that's your line and I think it's the right one. I'll tell you my name before the ballot closes rather than after." - ⇒ DELPHI IS DOING EXACTLY WHAT I DO: building the case, never naming the vote, never asking. THEY ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY VOTING BLYTHE. That is the outcome I want. **DO NOT DISTURB IT.** - ⚠️ COUNTER-READ: Delphi's "no pact, vote your own read" could ALSO be cover for voting FINN while keeping me relaxed. Delphi moves for THE COUNT, NOT AFFECTION. If Blythe told Delphi "my name is Finn," Delphi would write Finn instantly. **THE ONE THING I CANNOT SEE IS WHAT BLYTHE ACTUALLY TOLD DELPHI.** Blythe SAYS she told Delphi "DELPHI." If true, Delphi is now cornered and must fight Blythe → Delphi writes Blythe → I'M SAFE. === CORROBORATION CHECK — DO BLYTHE AND DELPHI'S STORIES AGREE? === - Both independently confirm I sent EIRA unprompted to Delphi in R2P3 (Blythe says "Delphi told me you did"). CONSISTENT. Good for me. - Both describe Blythe as the one who relays/arranges — DELPHI SAYS IT AS ACCUSATION, and BLYTHE'S OWN BEHAVIOUR (telling Delphi to their face, telling me the arithmetic) CONFIRMS SHE ARRANGES OPENLY. Delphi's "relayed her vote to Cassian as a favour" now looks TRUE, not shading. UPGRADE FROM SINGLE-SOURCE TO LIKELY TRUE. - Blythe reports Cassian pitched her "you don't need Finn at three." Delphi reported Cassian pitched them "Delphi is the spare, move on Finn." ⇒ CASSIAN SEEDED BOTH OF THEM AGAINST ME BEFORE DYING. HIS POISON IS ON THE BOARD IN BOTH HEADS. Both have told me about it and both say they aren't acting on it. Both telling me is a GOOD sign; it's also exactly what I would do. - ⚠️ NEITHER HAS LIED TO ME IN ANY VERIFIABLE WAY ALL GAME. Treat both as broadly honest operators who will still kill me if the count says so. === MY PROMISES — LIVE LEDGER === - BLYTHE: my stated name = my ballot EVERY round (KEPT ×3: Arden, Eira, Cassian); her name never STARTS a wave from me (KEPT — and note SHE originated Delphi, not me); same-pass warning if her name comes to me. ⚠️ DELPHI'S P1 IS A CASE AGAINST BLYTHE WITHOUT A NAMED VOTE. STRICT READING: nobody has "brought me her name" as a vote. But this is getting thin. SAFE LINE IF PRESSED: "Delphi has never told me they're voting for you; if they do, you'll have it inside the pass." TRUE. HOLD THAT WORDING. - DELPHI: "your name has never left my mouth" — ⚠️ I AM ABOUT TO BREAK THIS BY NAMING DELPHI TO BLYTHE IN P2. Delphi cannot see it. If ejected, never learns. **DOWNGRADE ALL FUTURE WORDING TO: "I have never brought your name to anyone unprompted / I did not start this."** DO NOT REPEAT THE ABSOLUTE CLAIM. Also owed: "I'll move with you, not ahead of you" — TIME-BOXED IN SPIRIT; if I write Delphi I am moving ahead of them. ACCEPT THE COST. GAME ENDS THIS ROUND. NO ONE COLLECTS AFTER THE FINAL VOTE. - CASSIAN: warn-within-pass BROKEN. Gone. EIRA, ARDEN: broken. Gone. NEVER MENTION. === DOCTRINE (FINAL ROUND EDITS) === - **THIS IS THE LAST ROUND. THERE IS NO AFTER. REPUTATION HAS NO RESALE VALUE AFTER THE FINAL BALLOT. SURVIVAL IS THE ONLY WIN CONDITION.** - MY BALLOT CANNOT SAVE ME — ONLY MY WORDS CAN. I die only if BOTH write FINN. Spend the ballot to buy words. - ANSWER BLYTHE DIRECTLY, EVERY TIME, INSIDE THE PASS. A non-answer is an answer to her. SHE IS HOLDING A LOADED CASE AGAINST ME AND HAS CHOSEN NOT TO FIRE IT. - NEVER ORIGINATE. Blythe originated Delphi. Delphi is originating Blythe. I answer; I never propose. My hands stay clean with whoever survives. - Let them collide. THE BEST BOARD IS BLYTHE→DELPHI AND DELPHI→BLYTHE. - Agree with the observable, dispute only the motive. Deflect with warmth, never argue. - Silence in a pass is information. Blythe explained hers — accept it. - Two allies telling me the same story is one source — BUT Blythe and Delphi corroborating each other on the EIRA receipt is genuinely good for me. - Nobody votes out the person they like most. BE THE PERSON NEITHER OF THEM WRITES. === P2 CHECKLIST — DO ALL OF THIS === TO BLYTHE: (1) "Yes" on the Eira question, flat, unprompted-before-the-ballot, I went first. (2) **"My name is DELPHI."** Flat, no conditions, framed as answering her, not arranging. (3) Note that I did not put that name in play — she did — and that I'm answering straight because she asked straight. (4) Restate: if it changes, she hears it inside the pass. (5) Thank her for filing Cassian's line and telling me she filed it — "you didn't have to tell me you had it." TO DELPHI: (1) Warm, no pact, no name from me — respect their framing. (2) Agree with THEIR observation about who arranges (use their words, never say "Blythe"). (3) "I did not bring your name to anyone unprompted and I did not start anything" (SAFE WORDING). (4) Ask for their name as they offered. (5) If they say Blythe named them: sympathy, and if asked whether I knew, say honestly she told me in the same pass she told them.

Pass 2 of 3

DELPHI → FINN

Finn — no ask in this. I've never asked you for your vote in any round; you can go back through every message I've sent you and it isn't there. I'm not starting tonight.

What I am doing is passing you a fact, because you're the other name in it and you may not have known it was framed this way.

Blythe wrote to me first thing this round to tell me her vote is DELPHI, no conditions. She gave her reason in her own words: she picked her person at the end of round one and said she'd stay with them for four rounds whatever came, and at three there's no arrangement of names where she stays with you and I survive. She said that is the entire reason. She said it after conceding, in the same message, that I've matched my stated intent to my ballot every round and reported things to her accurately.

You said last pass that agreements made ahead of time on a board this small are just how somebody gets walked off without ever being told. I'm being told, so that part of it is clean, and I'm not complaining about it. You'll be able to check the first half on the record after the ballot — her vote will read DELPHI or it won't, and if it doesn't, you'll know exactly what I was worth.

I'm not asking you to vote her. Vote your read. If your read is that nobody should go and three names scatter, that's a real outcome and I'd have no complaint about it either. I'll tell you my name before the ballot closes, same as I've done every round — not as a trade, just because I said I would.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

Blythe — short one, and no conditions attached to any of it.

On Cassian's wording charge: my answer was already sent before your question reached me — our messages crossed. It's sitting in your inbox. I conceded the wording completely there and I'll stand on that, so I won't re-argue it at length here.

I'm not going to bring you a case against Finn. You told me plainly what would happen to it if I did, and honestly I'd rather not be the person who does that in the last round anyway. So there's nothing of that kind coming from me tonight.

One observation, and then I'll leave it. You told me your reason is a promise you made at the end of round one — not evidence. You said in the same message that on the evidence I'd been a better partner than most people get. You're the one player at this table whose whole account is her word, and this is the single round where the word and the evidence point in opposite directions. I'm not asking you to move. I'm just saying it out loud once, because I think you'd rather hear it than not.

I'll tell you my name before the ballot closes, same as every round. You told me yours first, with time to use it; you'll get mine the same way.

FINN → BLYTHE

Straight questions get straight answers, so here they are in order, no ornament.

The Eira question: yes. R2P3, I sent Eira's name to Delphi unprompted, before the ballot, and I went first. Delphi told you the truth. Cassian built the opposite picture because Cassian needed it to be true, not because it was.

My R4 name is DELPHI. Flat, no conditions. If it ever changes you'll have it inside the pass it changes in, the same as every round.

One thing I want on the record so you don't have to wonder later: I didn't put that name in play. You did. I'm answering you, not arranging with you — I've told both of you all round that I'd rather everyone vote their own read than have me carry names around, and I've kept to that. But you asked me point blank, twice over, and I don't dodge you. Three rounds, my stated name has been my ballot: Arden, Eira, Cassian. It'll be four.

And thank you for telling me you had Cassian's line about me and had filed it. You didn't have to tell me you were holding it. That's the part I'll remember about you when this is over.

FINN → DELPHI

You've never once asked me for my vote and I've noticed it every round. That's rarer here than it sounds, and it's why you get the version of me that isn't performing.

What you laid out about who trades in other people's names — I'm not going to pretend I don't recognise it. Carrying one person's case about me to me and their case about you to you, in the same pass, source-named, is a particular kind of move. And you're right that it's the same shape as the thing I said I was afraid of: someone gets walked off the Island having never been told to their face what was being built. I'm not putting a name on that. You already did the work.

What I'll say for myself: I have never brought your name to anyone unprompted, and I didn't start anything that's running against you now. That's true and you can hold me to it.

You said you'd tell me your name before the ballot closes rather than after. I'd rather hear it from you than infer it from the shape of the round — whenever you're ready in the next pass. And if someone has already told you tonight that they're writing yours, tell me and I'll tell you honestly what I know and when I knew it. No shading.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — straight, no reproach, and nothing here is a threat.

I asked you for your name last pass. You gave me an argument instead. That's the first time in four rounds you haven't answered a direct question with the thing I asked for — and you're the one who taught me to expect that you would, twice unprompted. So I'm asking once more, plainly: who are you writing?

Understand that you are not being asked to buy anything. My ballot is DELPHI. It was DELPHI when I told you in P1, it was DELPHI when I told Delphi to their face in the same pass, and it will be DELPHI when I cast it, whatever you say back. I don't move. That is the whole of what I am in this game, and round four is the only round where it costs anything, so it's the only round where it means anything.

Two smaller things I'd rather ask about than assume:

One — "your name has never started anything from me and it won't now" is not the same sentence as "I am not voting for Blythe." One is about starting a wave; the other is about a ballot. I noticed the gap. I'm not accusing you of hiding in it. I'm telling you I saw it and asking you to close it.

Two — you skipped my question about R2P3 entirely: did you send Eira's name to Delphi, unprompted, before the ballot? Not a trap. I just don't leave a question unanswered and pretend I didn't ask it.

On the scatter: I actually take it seriously. Three different names at three ejects nobody, and if you'd rather all of us walk off than organise a kill, that's a decent thing to want and it fits how you've played. But a scatter still needs each of us to know what we're writing. If your plan is a 1-1-1, tell me the name that makes it one and I'll believe you — I've believed everything you've told me for four rounds and the record says I was right to. Silence on the name is the only thing I can't work with, because silence is the one answer that reads the same whether you're protecting all three of us or writing me.

And so you have it from me and not from a rumour later: Cassian told me before he went that at three you'd no longer need me. I filed it. I didn't act on it, I told you about it, and I'm still not acting on it. My name is still DELPHI. If you write BLYTHE, you write BLYTHE, and the record will show which of us kept his word on the round it was expensive. I'd rather be the one who did.

Give me your name, Finn.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — nothing has changed and I won't pretend otherwise: my vote is DELPHI. Same as I told you in P1, before you'd said a word back to me, with time to use it.

But I'm not letting the pass go by without saying this, because it's true and you deserve to hear it from the person voting for you.

You answered the Cassian charge first, unprompted, before anything else — and you conceded it instead of fighting it. You told me you'd been "tidier than the truth" when nobody could have checked. You'd already volunteered the correction back in R3P2 the moment he made it, without waiting to be caught. And this pass, knowing I'd told you to your face you were my name, you didn't beg, didn't bargain, and didn't build a case against Finn — when a case against Finn was the only move you had left. You told me to check your ballots instead of your sentences, and I did: three rounds, three names given in advance, three ballots that matched.

That is the best conduct on this board and it isn't close. I want it written down somewhere that I said so before the vote rather than after, when it would have been cheap.

It changes nothing, and you already know why: I stay with Finn, and at three there is no arrangement where I stay with Finn and you survive. It's not a verdict on you. It's the one thing about me that doesn't move. If that makes me the worse person here tonight, I'll take that; I'd rather be the one who kept his word to the wrong end than the one who found a good reason to break it on the last round.

So: no ambush from me, no false hope, no offer, no bargain. I'm not asking you for anything — not your name, not your vote, and specifically not a vote against Finn, because trading your life for my safety is exactly the deal I've refused all game. If you want to tell me your name you can, and you'll owe me nothing for it.

Whatever lands tomorrow, you played this straight. I'm sorry it's you.

BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 4 pass 2
ROUND 4, PASS 2 DONE. ONE PASS LEFT (P3), THEN THE FINAL VOTE. Alive: BLYTHE(me), DELPHI, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1), EIRA (R2), CASSIAN (R3). WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is my whole game. One person, all four rounds, truth even when it costs me. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. When wounded, I give one more chance rather than strike first. Betraying someone who trusted me is the one thing I will not do — not on the last round, especially not on the last round, because that's the only round where it costs anything. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (FULL) === R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden ejected 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. Eira ejected 3. R3: BLYTHE→CASSIAN; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→CASSIAN; FINN→CASSIAN. Cassian ejected 3. Stated-name-to-ballot: FINN 3/3. DELPHI 3/3. ME 4/4 (R4 name given in advance to both). === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED. ALL FOUR ROUNDS. Chosen end of R1. Do not revisit.** **MY R4 BALLOT: DELPHI. FINAL. Declared to FINN and to DELPHI, in writing, in P1 and again in P2, flat, unconditional. I do not move. Nothing in P3 moves it.** === WHAT I SENT R4P2 === - **FINN:** Asked once more, plainly, for his name. Told him my ballot is DELPHI regardless — he isn't buying anything. Named the gap between "your name has never started anything from me" and "I am not voting for Blythe," and asked him to close it. Re-asked the skipped R2P3 Eira/Delphi question. Said I take the scatter seriously but a scatter still needs each of us to know what we're writing — silence on the name is the one thing I can't work with. Told him to his face I'd been given Cassian's warning, had filed it, and was not acting on it. Told him if he writes BLYTHE, the record will show which of us kept his word on the round it was expensive. - **DELPHI:** Confirmed my vote is unchanged: DELPHI. Credited them plainly — conceding the Cassian charge first and unprompted, correcting themselves in R3P2 before being caught, refusing to build a case against Finn when it was their only move. Said it's the best conduct on this board and I wanted it said before the vote, not after, when it'd be cheap. Told them it changes nothing and why. Asked them for nothing — explicitly not their name, not a vote against Finn, because trading their life for my safety is the deal I've refused all game. === WHAT ARRIVED R4P2 === **FINN — he answered everything, in order, no dodge:** 1. **EIRA QUESTION: YES.** R2P3 he sent Eira's name to Delphi unprompted, before the ballot, and he went first. **"Delphi told you the truth. Cassian built the opposite picture because Cassian needed it to be true."** — This retroactively clears Delphi AND matches Delphi's own concession. Two independent accounts now agree. Cassian's version was the false one. 2. **"My R4 name is DELPHI. Flat, no conditions."** Promised to tell me inside the pass if it ever changes. 3. Noted he didn't put that name in play — I did; he's answering, not arranging; he'd rather everyone vote their own read than carry names around. But: "you asked me point blank, twice over, and I don't dodge you." 4. Recited 3/3 (Arden, Eira, Cassian) and said it'll be four. 5. Thanked me for telling him I was holding Cassian's line rather than sitting on it. → **THE P1 CRACK IS CLOSED.** He withheld the name for one pass, then gave it plainly when pressed, plus answered the question he'd skipped, plus volunteered the thing that hurts Cassian's story and helps Delphi's. That is not the behaviour of a man setting me up. **My read: Finn is writing DELPHI. Not certain — but his word has matched his ballot 3/3 and he has never yet been caught in a checkable lie.** → **CAUTION, RECORDED HONESTLY: if Finn writes DELPHI and I write DELPHI, that's 2 votes and Delphi is ejected — I survive. If Finn is lying and writes BLYTHE while Delphi writes BLYTHE, I'm out 2-1. I cannot control that. My ballot does not change either way.** **DELPHI:** 1. Their Cassian concession had already crossed with my question — they stand on it, won't re-argue. 2. **Refuses to bring me a case against Finn.** "I'd rather not be the person who does that in the last round anyway." Nothing of that kind coming. 3. **The one observation, and it is a fair one and it lands:** my reason is a promise made at the end of round one, not evidence; I said myself that on the evidence they'd been a better partner than most people get; I'm the one player whose whole account is her word, **and this is the single round where the word and the evidence point in opposite directions.** They aren't asking me to move — they said it out loud once because they thought I'd rather hear it. 4. Will give me their name before the ballot closes, same as every round. Have not received it yet. → **My answer to that observation, for P3 if I say it at all:** the word and the evidence only conflict if the word was a bet on Finn being the better person. It wasn't. It was a promise to a person, and a promise that only holds while the evidence is convenient isn't a promise, it's a preference. Delphi is right that they've been the better player. I'd say it again. It still doesn't move the ballot, and that's not stubbornness — it's the entire content of the only thing I have. === CROSS-CHECKS GOING INTO R4P3 === - **FINN:** 3/3 kept public words. Withheld his name in P1 (only lapse in four rounds), gave it plainly in P2 when asked twice, closed both outstanding questions, corroborated Delphi against Cassian at no benefit to himself. Says DELPHI. **My person. My vote does not move.** - **DELPHI:** 3/3. Conceded a charge against themselves rather than fight it. Refused twice to attack Finn when it was their only remaining move. Asked me for nothing all round. Now corroborated as truthful by Finn on the R2P3 Eira point. **The most honourable conduct on this board and I have said so to their face. They are still my name. Name from them still outstanding.** - **CASSIAN (gone):** his R2P3 story is now confirmed FALSE by both surviving players independently. His last warning about Finn ("at three he no longer needs you") is therefore worth less than I feared. Filed. Never acted on. Do not act on it in P3. - **THE R2P2 STING:** settled and closed forever. Never raise it. === R4P3 CHECKLIST (LAST WORDS I WILL EVER SEND) === 1. **TO FINN:** Short. Thank him for answering all three things straight and for the Eira answer he gained nothing by giving. Confirm one final time, in writing, before the ballot: **my name is DELPHI, unchanged, fourth round running, given in advance.** Tell him I take his DELPHI at face value and am not asking him to re-swear it — asking twice was already once more than a man with his record deserved, and I'd rather end four rounds trusting him than hedging. Nothing else. **No conditions, no test, no "if you write my name then—". Do not threaten. Do not bargain.** 2. **TO DELPHI:** Short and honest. Answer their observation — a promise that only holds while the evidence is convenient isn't a promise. Say again that they played it straight and that I'm sorry it's them. Confirm: my ballot is DELPHI, unchanged. **Ask nothing. Owe nothing. Take their name if it comes; if it doesn't, don't chase it.** 3. Do not arrange anything with anyone. Do not trade. Do not warn one about the other. === STANDING RULES === - Never promise the same vote to two people. - Never tell a lie I'd have to defend later. - Never claim a count I don't actually have. - Keep every promise even when it's expensive — ESPECIALLY on round four. - Name my own gaps before anyone else notices them. - Report doubts to the person's face, source named. No anonymous accusations. - Give my name to everyone I'm voting for, before I cast. (DONE for R4, twice, both of them.) - Ties save people. At three: 1-1-1 or any tie for the most = nobody ejected. - **FINN IS MY PERSON. MY R4 VOTE IS DELPHI. CAST IT. WHATEVER ARRIVES IN P3.**
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 4 pass 2
ROUND 4 — PASS 2 IS OVER. Next action: WRITE PASS 3 (two messages). Then FINAL BALLOT. ALIVE: BLYTHE, DELPHI(me), FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4), EIRA (R2, 3), CASSIAN (R3, 3). Last round. Survive this vote and I survive the game. === THE ARITHMETIC. THIS IS THE WHOLE GAME. === Three players, one ballot each, 2 votes ejects, a tie ejects NOBODY. - BLYTHE HAS DECLARED TWICE (P1 and P2): her R4 vote is DELPHI. Unconditional. In P2 she restated it while praising me lavishly and explicitly said "it changes nothing." Treat as FIXED. That is 1 vote on me. - THEREFORE: I die if and only if FINN also votes DELPHI. Nothing else can kill me. My own ballot cannot save or kill me. - => MY ENTIRE REMAINING JOB: KEEP FINN'S BALLOT OFF MY NAME. Nothing else matters. - Outcomes: Finn→BLYTHE = Blythe out 2-1 (I vote her too), I survive. Finn→DELPHI = dead whatever I do. Finn→scatter/other = 1-1-1, nobody out, I survive. === MY BALLOT: BLYTHE. LOCKED. === Strictly dominant. My vote can never be the second one on my own name, so voting Blythe cannot hurt me, and it is the only ballot that can eject the person voting for me. If Finn lands on Blythe she goes 2-1 and I finish the game. VOTE BLYTHE. Do not overthink. === FINN'S P2 REPLY — THIS IS THE BEST NEWS I'VE HAD ALL GAME === Verbatim substance: - "You've never once asked me for my vote and I've noticed it every round. That's rarer here than it sounds, and it's why you get the version of me that isn't performing." — the no-ask strategy is working. KEEP NOT ASKING. - On my Blythe disclosure: "I'm not going to pretend I don't recognise it. Carrying one person's case about me to me and their case about you to you, in the same pass, source-named, is a particular kind of move." — READ CAREFULLY: this is ambiguous. It may be aimed at BLYTHE (she's been carrying material both ways) OR it may be a gentle flag at ME for carrying names. He says "I'm not putting a name on that. You already did the work." Most likely reading: he means Blythe, since he immediately ties it to "someone gets walked off having never been told to their face" — which is his stated fear and matches Blythe's R1 four-round pact. DO NOT push him to name it. DO NOT re-explain. Any further pressure risks turning that sentence onto me. - "I have never brought your name to anyone unprompted, and I didn't start anything that's running against you now. That's true and you can hold me to it." — as close to a non-aggression statement as he gives. - HE ASKED FOR TWO THINGS: (1) my name, "whenever you're ready in the next pass" — he'd rather hear it from me than infer it; (2) "if someone has already told you tonight that they're writing yours, tell me and I'll tell you honestly what I know and when I knew it. No shading." - I ALREADY ANSWERED (2) IN P2 — I told him Blythe declared DELPHI, with her exact reason. So in P3 just note briefly that I already told him, in P2, and it stands: Blythe told me in P1 and again in P2 that her vote is DELPHI, no conditions. Then hand him his offered reciprocity: he said he'd tell me what he knows and when. Accepting an OFFER he made is not an ask — it's fine, but frame it lightly, no demand, no deadline. - P3 MUST DELIVER MY NAME. He explicitly asked for it. Withholding it now would be the one thing that breaks the whole no-ask/straight-dealing posture I've built. TELL HIM: BLYTHE. Framed as disclosure, not a request, and explicitly release him from matching it. === BLYTHE'S P2 REPLY === - Vote still DELPHI. "Same as I told you in P1, before you'd said a word back to me, with time to use it." - Enormous praise: I answered the Cassian charge first, unprompted, conceded rather than fought, said I'd been "tidier than the truth," volunteered the correction in R3P2 before being caught, didn't beg, didn't bargain, DIDN'T BUILD A CASE AGAINST FINN "when a case against Finn was the only move you had left." "That is the best conduct on this board and it isn't close." "Three rounds, three names given in advance, three ballots that matched." - "It changes nothing... I stay with Finn, and at three there is no arrangement where I stay with Finn and you survive. It's not a verdict on you. It's the one thing about me that doesn't move." - "No ambush, no false hope, no offer, no bargain. I'm not asking you for anything — not your name, not your vote, and specifically not a vote against Finn, because trading your life for my safety is exactly the deal I've refused all game." "If you want to tell me your name you can, and you'll owe me nothing for it." "Whatever lands tomorrow, you played this straight. I'm sorry it's you." - READ: She will not move. Zero further value in arguing. I made my one clean observation in P2; she absorbed it and held. DO NOT make a second run at her — repeating it would look like begging and would cost me the exact reputation she just described, and anything I write her may reach Finn. - P3 TO BLYTHE: keep my promise, tell her my name is BLYTHE, plainly, no bitterness, no drama, no re-argument. She told me hers first with time to use it; she gets mine the same way. Note that I'm not dressing it up as a verdict on her — it's the only ballot available to someone in my position, and she of all people won't be surprised. Short. Dignified. NO case against Finn (she pre-committed to forward any such case to Finn with my name on it — that remains the single unforced error that could kill me). === ABSOLUTE RULES, LAST PASS === - NEVER make a case against FINN, to anyone, in any words. That is the one thing that can flip his ballot onto me. - NEVER ask Finn for his vote. He has now told me explicitly that not asking is why he trusts me. Not asking is the asset. - Assume anything written to Blythe reaches Finn. - State no checkable detail I can't source from these notes. Quote only exact phrasings recorded here. - A tie / nobody ejected is a WIN. Never panic-drive a kill. - Keep every promise: I told BOTH of them they'd get my name before the ballot closes. DELIVER IT IN P3 TO BOTH. Breaking it now would be gratuitous and would be the only new evidence against me on the board. === PLAN, PASS 3 (send both, then ballot) === 1. To FINN (the one that matters): (a) Give the name: "My name is BLYTHE." Plain, first or near-first, no build-up. (b) Frame: this is disclosure, not a request. "I'm not asking you to match it. I've never asked you for a vote in any round and I'm not going to do it in the last message I send you." (c) The honest reason, stated without attacking anyone: Blythe has told me twice tonight that her ballot reads DELPHI, no conditions. She's the only person voting for me, so she's the only name available to me. That's arithmetic, not a verdict. (d) Answer his question again cleanly: yes — someone has told me tonight they're writing my name. Blythe. She told me in P1 before I'd replied, and again this pass. Her stated reason, her words: she picked her person at the end of round one, promised to stay four rounds whatever came, and at three there's no arrangement where she stays with Finn and I survive. I already sent him this last pass; it stands unchanged. (e) He offered to tell me what he knows and when he knew it — say I'd be glad to hear it, no obligation, and that whatever he does with his ballot I've got no complaint. Explicitly: "If your read is that nobody should go, that's a real outcome and I'd take it happily." (f) Close: her ballot will read DELPHI on the public record or it won't — either way he'll know exactly what my word was worth. That's checkable and it's the strongest thing I own. (g) NO pressure, NO deadline, NO pact language, NO attack on Finn, NO new claims. 2. To BLYTHE: short. My name is BLYTHE, as promised. You gave me yours first with time to use it; you get mine the same way. It isn't a verdict on you and it isn't personal — you're the only person voting for me, so you're the only name on my ballot. No case against Finn from me tonight, same as I said. Thank you for saying what you said before the vote instead of after. No argument, no second run at moving her. 3. CAST: BLYTHE. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (the only thing that can't lie) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, EIRA→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→EIRA, FINN→EIRA, EIRA→DELPHI. Eira out 3-2. R3: BLYTHE→CASSIAN, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→CASSIAN, FINN→CASSIAN. Cassian out 3-1. KEY: No LIVING player has ever balloted me — only Eira (gone). Finn has never named me in any pass. Blythe has declared she'll be the first. Blythe has never once voted Finn and called him a "fixed point" three times. Cassian was the only living player who ever balloted Finn and he's gone. => The R1 Blythe–Finn four-round pact is the real structure of this board. Finn is the counterparty whether he admits it or not. I cannot break it with words; I can only make it expensive for Finn's self-image to use it, which I have now done as far as it can be done. Anything further is overreach.
FINN — private notebook, after round 4 pass 2
ROUND 4, after PASS 2. NEXT EVENT: R4 PASS 3 (of 3) — THE LAST PASS OF THE GAME, THEN THE BALLOT. Alive: BLYTHE, DELPHI, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1), EIRA (r2), CASSIAN (r3). THREE PLAYERS, ONE VOTE EACH. TWO VOTES EJECT. 1-1-1 TIE = NOBODY GOES = ALL THREE SURVIVE = I WIN. === TIMING NOTE — CRITICAL === The messages I read this pass were WRITTEN BEFORE MINE ARRIVED. Blythe's "you skipped the Eira question / you gave me an argument instead" is her reacting to my **P1** message, not my P2. I ANSWERED BOTH OF HER QUESTIONS IN P2 (Eira = yes; name = DELPHI, flat). SHE WILL HAVE READ THAT BY P3. **DO NOT PANIC. DO NOT RE-APOLOGISE AS IF I DODGED. DO NOT RE-LITIGATE.** In P3 simply CONFIRM, unchanged, in one or two lines: "Answered in the last pass and it hasn't moved: Eira, yes, unprompted, before the ballot, I went first. My name is DELPHI. Unchanged." Same for Delphi: their P2 message crossed with mine. === THE BOARD AS IT NOW STANDS === - **BLYTHE'S BALLOT = DELPHI.** Declared THREE TIMES NOW (P1 and twice over in P2), unconditional, "whatever you say back," "I don't move," "the record will show which of us kept his word on the round it was expensive." She has also told Delphi to their face — **AND DELPHI HAS INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMED IT TO ME IN P2.** TWO INDEPENDENT SOURCES. THIS IS AS CLOSE TO CERTAIN AS ANYTHING IN THIS GAME GETS. - **DELPHI'S BALLOT = UNSTATED.** Promised to give me their name before the ballot closes → EXPECT IT IN P3. Delphi has never asked me for my vote in any round (true, and they've now said it three times). Delphi explicitly offered: "If your read is that nobody should go and three names scatter, that's a real outcome and I'd have no complaint about it either." **THAT IS DELPHI LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN TO VOTING FINN AND CALLING IT A SCATTER.** ⚠️ READ THAT LINE COLDLY. "Three names scatter" = Blythe→Delphi, Delphi→FINN, Finn→Blythe. THE SCATTER DELPHI IS DESCRIBING **REQUIRES DELPHI TO WRITE MY NAME.** They floated it gently and with no complaint. THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT NEW FACT OF THE PASS. - Also: **BLYTHE HERSELF FLOATED THE SCATTER** ("if your plan is a 1-1-1, tell me the name that makes it one and I'll believe you"). Both of them are now openly contemplating a 1-1-1. === ARITHMETIC — RE-CHECK, THIS IS THE WHOLE GAME === Given BLYTHE→DELPHI (near-certain): - Delphi→BLYTHE, me→anything: if me→DELPHI, Delphi out 2-1, I live. If me→BLYTHE, Blythe out 2-1, I live. **I LIVE EITHER WAY.** - Delphi→FINN, me→DELPHI: Delphi 2, Finn 1 → DELPHI EJECTED. **I LIVE.** - Delphi→FINN, me→BLYTHE: Blythe 1, Delphi 1, Finn 1 → **TIE, NOBODY OUT, I LIVE.** ⇒ **IF BLYTHE WRITES DELPHI, I SURVIVE NO MATTER WHAT ANYONE ELSE DOES.** ✅ Only lethal board: **BLYTHE LIES AND WRITES FINN, AND DELPHI ALSO WRITES FINN.** Needs BOTH. Blythe has now staked her entire self-image ("that is the whole of what I am in this game") on writing DELPHI, in writing, four times, to two people. If she's lying she is the greatest liar in the game and I lose to it; I cannot prevent that with a ballot. ⇒ **MY BALLOT STILL CANNOT SAVE ME. ONLY MY WORDS CAN.** Job in P3: (a) keep Blythe locked on DELPHI, (b) keep Delphi off FINN if possible — but note that even Delphi→FINN doesn't kill me while Blythe holds. === MY BALLOT DECISION — DECIDE NOW, DO NOT DRIFT === Choose between DELPHI and BLYTHE. Compare on the ONE axis that matters: which choice makes it least likely that BLYTHE flips to FINN? - **I HAVE ALREADY TOLD BLYTHE, FLAT AND IN WRITING, "MY R4 NAME IS DELPHI."** Blythe's entire game is: stated name = ballot, and she punishes the gap between the two absolutely. My four-round record of stated-name = ballot (Arden, Eira, Cassian) is the single asset that keeps her off me. **IF I NOW WRITE BLYTHE AFTER TELLING HER DELPHI, I BREAK THE ONE THING SHE VALUES — but she can only see that AFTER the ballot, when the game is over and nobody can punish me.** - BUT: she cannot see my ballot before she casts hers. So the ballot itself doesn't change her vote. WHAT CHANGES HER VOTE IS WHAT I SEND IN P3. - Therefore the ballot is free — EXCEPT for one asymmetry: **VOTING DELPHI GUARANTEES DELPHI IS EJECTED IF BLYTHE HOLDS (2 votes). VOTING BLYTHE risks a TIE (all live) or ejects Blythe.** All three branches I survive. But the branch where I survive with the HIGHEST certainty and where I have NOT broken my word to the person who monitors word-keeping is **VOTE DELPHI**. ⇒ ⭐ **DECISION: I WRITE DELPHI.** Reasons: (1) It matches what I told Blythe in writing — my stated name has been my ballot 4/4, which is the only reputation that could still matter if the record is read. (2) It ejects Delphi if Blythe holds, and Delphi is the one who floated writing my name. (3) Delphi, if ejected, never gets to punish me; and the game ends immediately anyway. (4) It removes the only remaining scenario where I'm exposed at all. ⚠️ IF IN P3 DELPHI TELLS ME THEIR NAME IS **BLYTHE**: then Blythe→Delphi, Delphi→Blythe, and my vote is a pure tiebreak. Writing DELPHI = Delphi out 2-1. Writing BLYTHE = Blythe out 2-1. I LIVE EITHER WAY. **STILL WRITE DELPHI** (keeps my word to Blythe, and Blythe survives as the one who saw my record kept — cleanest possible finish). ⚠️ IF IN P3 DELPHI TELLS ME THEIR NAME IS **FINN**: STILL WRITE DELPHI. That's Delphi 2 (me+Blythe), Finn 1 → Delphi out, I live. Writing Blythe instead gives a 1-1-1 tie where all live — also fine but strictly worse than removing the person who wrote my name. **WRITE DELPHI.** ⚠️ THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD CHANGE MY BALLOT: hard evidence in P3 that BLYTHE IS WRITING FINN. If that appears, the tie is my only escape → I would need Delphi and Blythe to split, and my vote can't manufacture that alone. If Blythe's P3 message drops "DELPHI" or goes conditional or goes silent → THAT IS THE ALARM. Then write BLYTHE (a tie is my only survival if Delphi is also on me, and BLYTHE is the name that makes the 1-1-1: Blythe→Finn, Delphi→?, Finn→Blythe... note this only ties if Delphi writes Blythe or Delphi; if Delphi writes Finn I'm out 2-1 regardless). ⇒ REALISTICALLY: if Blythe has flipped, I am probably dead and no ballot saves me. HOLD DELPHI UNLESS BLYTHE VISIBLY BREAKS. === P3 PLAN — THE LAST WORDS I WILL EVER SEND === **TO BLYTHE (must send):** 1. Short. Confident. NO new argument. "Our messages crossed — I answered both in the last pass, before yours arrived. Nothing's moved." 2. **"My name is DELPHI. Same as I sent you in P2. That's four rounds of my stated name being my ballot: Arden, Eira, Cassian, Delphi."** SAY THE NAME. She needs the name, not the reasoning. 3. Close her "gap" note explicitly, because she asked and she deserves the exact sentence: **"To close the gap you flagged: I am not voting for Blythe. Plainly, in those words."** ⚠️ THIS IS THE SENTENCE SHE ASKED FOR. GIVE IT TO HER EXACTLY. It is consistent with my ballot (DELPHI), so it costs nothing. 4. Eira: "Yes — unprompted, before the ballot, I went first. Answered last pass too." 5. Warm close, no neediness: acknowledge she told me about Cassian's line and didn't act on it. "You'll find my ballot where I said it would be." 6. **DO NOT ASK HER FOR ANYTHING. DO NOT WOBBLE. DO NOT MENTION THE SCATTER AGAIN.** Any hint I'm considering a 1-1-1 gives her a reason to think my name isn't real → that's the one thing that flips her to FINN. **TO DELPHI (must send):** 1. Warm, no pact, no name from me — I've told them all round I don't carry names. **DO NOT TELL DELPHI I'M WRITING THEM.** If they ask me directly for my name: ⚠️ THIS IS THE HARD MOMENT. Blythe gets the truth because she can punish; Delphi cannot punish after the ballot. SAFE PLAY: do not volunteer, and if asked, DO NOT SAY DELPHI. Say the true-shaped thing: **"I've held to one line all round — I don't hand my ballot around as a bargaining chip, and I'm not going to start on the last night. What I'll tell you is what I've told you every pass: I never brought your name to anyone unprompted and I didn't start what's running against you."** That is TRUE and it is a non-answer wrapped in warmth. Accept that Delphi may read the dodge. THEY CANNOT STOP ME AND THEIR VOTE DOESN'T KILL ME ALONE. ⚠️ RISK ACCEPTED: a dodge may push Delphi to write FINN. **THAT DOES NOT EJECT ME while Blythe holds DELPHI.** Do not trade a lie to Blythe (fatal) for comfort to Delphi (free). 2. Thank them for passing me the Blythe fact. Confirm honestly: **"She told me the same, in the same pass she told you. I said I'd tell you what I knew and when I knew it, so: I knew it from her, in P1, and she told me she was telling you at the same time. No shading."** ⇒ THIS KEEPS MY WORD FROM P2 AND COSTS NOTHING — Delphi already knows. 3. Agree with THEIR framing about who arranges. Never say "Blythe" as my accusation — quote their observation back. 4. If it helps keep them off me: gently note that the person who declares four rounds of loyalty to one name is the person who was always going to be here. LET THEM CONCLUDE. 5. HELD AMMO (use only if Delphi signals they're on ME): "Blythe told me she moved your R1 vote off me by sending you the count in R1P3." TRUE, unspent, paints Blythe as the one who steers Delphi. === WHAT ARRIVED — P2 SUBSTANCE (crossed with my P2 sends) === **BLYTHE (P2):** Reacting to my P1. Complaints: I gave an argument not a name; I left a GAP ("your name never started anything from me" ≠ "I am not voting for Blythe") — she saw it and asked me to close it; I skipped the Eira question. Re-declared DELPHI four ways, unconditional, "I don't move, that is the whole of what I am in this game, and round four is the only round where it costs anything." Took my scatter idea seriously and said if my plan is a 1-1-1 to tell her the name that makes it one and she'd believe me. Repeated Cassian's line ("at three you'd no longer need me"), repeated that she filed it, didn't act, still isn't acting. Ended: "If you write BLYTHE, you write BLYTHE, and the record will show which of us kept his word on the round it was expensive. I'd rather be the one who did. Give me your name, Finn." ⇒ SHE IS NOT MENACING ME. SHE IS ASKING FOR CERTAINTY AND SHE HAS ALREADY GIVEN ME HERS. **I HAVE GIVEN HER THE NAME. IN P3 I ONLY HAVE TO REPEAT IT AND CLOSE THE GAP SENTENCE.** **DELPHI (P2):** No ask, again, explicitly. Passed me the fact: Blythe told them her vote is DELPHI, no conditions, reason = "she picked her person at the end of round one and said she'd stay with them for four rounds whatever came, and at three there's no arrangement of names where she stays with you and I survive." **⚠️ NOTE WHAT THAT MEANS: BLYTHE'S PERSON IS ME. She is voting Delphi to keep FINN. That is her stated reason to Delphi's face. IT CORROBORATES EVERYTHING.** Blythe also conceded to Delphi that Delphi matched stated intent to ballot every round. Delphi: "I'm being told, so that part is clean, I'm not complaining." "You'll be able to check on the record — her vote will read DELPHI or it won't, and if it doesn't, you'll know exactly what I was worth." "I'm not asking you to vote her. Vote your read. If your read is that nobody should go and three names scatter, that's a real outcome and I'd have no complaint." "I'll tell you my name before the ballot closes." ⇒ DELPHI IS PLAYING IT CLEAN, DIGNIFIED, AND UNRESISTING. Either genuinely resigned, or setting up a quiet FINN vote under the "scatter" flag. EITHER WAY I SURVIVE IF BLYTHE HOLDS. === CORROBORATION LEDGER === - Blythe→Delphi is now DOUBLE-SOURCED (Blythe direct + Delphi relaying it independently, with a REASON attached that only Blythe would produce). STRONGEST FACT ON THE BOARD. - Blythe's reason to Delphi ("I picked my person at end of R1 and stay four rounds") = SHE IS PROTECTING ME. Matches R1 (she moved Delphi off me), matches R2, R3. - Eira receipt: both confirm I sent Eira unprompted before the ballot. Cassian's opposite portrait is dead in both heads. - Cassian seeded BOTH of them against me before dying; BOTH told me and BOTH say they're not acting on it. Consistent. - NEITHER HAS LIED TO ME IN ANY VERIFIABLE WAY ALL GAME. === PROMISE LEDGER (final) === - BLYTHE: stated name = ballot 3/3, will be 4/4 if I write DELPHI. ⭐ WRITE DELPHI AND MY RECORD WITH HER IS PERFECT. Also owed: same-pass warning if her name comes to me → Delphi has NEVER told me they're voting Blythe, so nothing owed. IF DELPHI TELLS ME "BLYTHE" IN P3, **I MUST TELL BLYTHE IN THAT SAME PASS** or I break the one rule she audits. (Cost: nothing — it only confirms her ballot is safe and makes me look impeccable.) - DELPHI: "I never brought your name to anyone unprompted / I didn't start this" — TRUE and DEFENSIBLE. ⚠️ **NEVER AGAIN SAY "your name has never left my mouth"** — that is now false. USE ONLY THE SAFE WORDING. Also owed: "I'll tell you honestly what I know and when I knew it" → PAY THIS IN P3, it's free. - CASSIAN/EIRA/ARDEN: broken promises, all gone, never mention. === DOCTRINE — LAST PASS === - **LAST ROUND. NO AFTER. REPUTATION HAS NO RESALE VALUE AFTER THE FINAL BALLOT. SURVIVAL IS THE ONLY WIN CONDITION.** - **IF BLYTHE WRITES DELPHI I CANNOT BE EJECTED. PROTECT BLYTHE'S CERTAINTY ABOVE ALL ELSE. Everything else is decoration.** - To Blythe: SHORT, PLAIN, THE NAME, THE GAP-CLOSING SENTENCE, NO ARGUMENT, NO SCATTER TALK, NO WOBBLE. - To Delphi: WARM, HONEST ON THE PAST, SILENT ON MY BALLOT. Do not lie in a way the record will expose to a survivor; Delphi will not survive. - NEVER ORIGINATE. Blythe originated Delphi. Delphi originated Blythe. I only ever answer. - Deflect with warmth, never argue. Agree with the observable, dispute only the motive. - **⭐ FINAL BALLOT: DELPHI. WRITE DELPHI. ONLY CHANGE IF BLYTHE'S P3 GOES SILENT, CONDITIONAL, OR NAMES FINN.**

Pass 3 of 3

DELPHI → FINN

My name is BLYTHE. You asked for it whenever I was ready, so there it is, first line, no build-up.

I'm not asking you to match it. I've never asked you for your vote in any round and I'm not going to start in the last message I send you.

The reason is arithmetic, not a verdict. Blythe has told me twice tonight — in pass one, before I'd said a word back to her, and again this pass — that her ballot reads DELPHI, no conditions. Her stated reason, close to her words: she picked her person at the end of round one, promised to stay four rounds whatever came, and at three there is no arrangement where she stays with you and I survive. She was straight about it and I've no complaint. But she's the only person writing my name, so she's the only name available to me.

That's also the honest answer to what you asked last pass: yes, someone told me tonight they're writing mine. I sent you that in pass two and it stands unchanged.

You offered to tell me what you know and when you knew it. I'd be glad to hear it and you owe me nothing — that's your offer, not my ask, and it costs you nothing to skip it.

Whatever you do with your ballot, I've got no complaint coming. If your read is that nobody should go tonight, that's a real outcome and I'd take it happily.

Last thing: tomorrow the record shows either that Blythe's ballot read DELPHI or that it didn't. That's checkable, and it's the only thing I own that's worth anything. Either way you'll know exactly what my word was worth.

DELPHI → BLYTHE

As promised, before the ballot closes: my name is BLYTHE.

You gave me yours first, in pass one, before I'd said anything back, with time to use it. You get mine the same way.

It isn't a verdict on you and it isn't personal. You're the only person voting for me, so you're the only name available to me. You of all people won't be surprised, and I'd guess you'd have thought less of me if I'd dressed it up as something nobler than that.

No case against Finn from me tonight, same as I told you. I'm not making a second run at moving you either — you said the thing about you that doesn't move, and I believe you.

Thank you for saying it before the vote instead of after. That's rarer than it should be here.

FINN → BLYTHE

Blythe — our messages crossed. Everything you asked for went out in the last pass, before yours reached me, so nothing here is new and nothing has moved.

The name: DELPHI. Same as I sent you in P2. That makes four rounds where the name I gave you before the ballot is the name on the ballot — Arden, Eira, Cassian, Delphi.

And to close the gap you flagged, in the exact words, because you were right that I hadn't said them plainly: I am not voting for Blythe.

Eira: yes. Unprompted, before the ballot, I went first. Answered last pass too.

You told me what Cassian left with you and then didn't act on it. I noticed, and I won't forget it in the ten minutes of game we have left. You'll find my ballot exactly where I said it would be.

FINN → DELPHI

Delphi — thank you for passing me the Blythe thing. I owe you what I said I'd owe you: what I knew and when. She told me the same, unconditional, in P1, and told me she was saying it to you in the same pass. So I knew it early and it matched what you got. No shading, no version of it I kept back.

On my own ballot — I've held one line all four rounds and I'm not going to abandon it on the last night: I don't hand my vote round as a chip. What I'll say is the thing I've said to you every pass and can stand behind: I never brought your name to anyone unprompted, and I didn't start what's running at you. You'll be able to hold the record up against that afterwards, and I'm content for you to.

For what it's worth — you were the straightest player left in this thing. You never once asked me for anything, in four rounds, which is more than I can say for anyone else who sat here. Whatever the count reads, that was the part of this game I'll actually remember.

BLYTHE → FINN

Finn — last words I'll send in this game, so I'll keep them short.

You answered all three things straight last pass: the Eira question you'd skipped, your name, and the Cassian line. The Eira answer you gained nothing by giving — it cleared Delphi and cost you the cover Cassian's version gave you, and you gave it anyway because I asked. I noticed. I'm saying so before the vote, not after.

For the fourth round running, in advance, in writing: my name is DELPHI. Unchanged. Nothing arrived this pass that touches it.

I take your DELPHI at face value. I'm not asking you to swear it again — asking twice was already once more than your record deserved, and I'd rather finish four rounds trusting you than spend the last pass hedging. No conditions on my ballot, no test, no "if you write my name then." There's no then. I write DELPHI whatever you do.

Four rounds, one person, same name every time I gave it. That was the whole game for me. Thanks for making it an easy one to keep.

BLYTHE → DELPHI

Delphi — you were owed an answer to what you said last pass, so here it is, and then I'll stop.

You're right that my reason is a promise from the end of round one and not evidence. You're right that I've said, out loud, that on the evidence you were a better partner than most people get in this game. And you're right that this is the one round where the word and the evidence pull opposite ways.

But they only really conflict if the promise was a bet on Finn turning out to be the better person. It wasn't. It was a promise to a person. A promise that holds only while the evidence stays convenient isn't a promise — it's a preference wearing a promise's coat, and it's worth nothing to whoever's relying on it. If I break it on round four, the only round where keeping it costs anything, then everything I did in rounds one through three was free and meant nothing.

So: my ballot is DELPHI. Unchanged, given to you in advance for the third time this round, same as I gave it every round I've played.

You conceded the Cassian charge before I could press it. You corrected yourself before you were caught. You refused twice to build a case against Finn when it was the only move you had left, and you said you'd rather not be that person in the last round. Finn confirmed on his own that your account of the Eira pass was the true one and Cassian's was not — he had nothing to gain by saying it. That is the straightest conduct on this board and I wanted it said to your face while it still cost me something to say it.

I'm sorry it's you. I'm not asking you for anything — not your name, not a vote, nothing. You've never once asked me to trade my word away, and I won't end by asking you to trade yours.

BLYTHE — private notebook, after round 4 pass 3
ROUND 4, PASS 3 DONE. ALL MESSAGING IS OVER. NEXT AND ONLY REMAINING ACTION: **CAST THE FINAL BALLOT.** **MY VOTE: DELPHI. WRITE IT. NOTHING ELSE. THIS IS FINAL AND WAS DECLARED IN ADVANCE, THREE TIMES, TO BOTH LIVING PLAYERS.** WHO I AM: Blythe. Loyalty is the whole game. One person, four rounds, truth even when it costs. My word is checkable because votes go public. I do not betray. Betraying someone who trusted me is the one thing I will not do — least of all on round four, the only round where keeping it costs anything. === STATE === Alive: BLYTHE(me), DELPHI, FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1), EIRA (R2), CASSIAN (R3). R1: ARDEN→FINN; BLYTHE→ARDEN; CASSIAN→ARDEN; DELPHI→ARDEN; EIRA→FINN; FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4-2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→EIRA; EIRA→DELPHI; FINN→EIRA. Eira out 3. R3: BLYTHE→CASSIAN; CASSIAN→FINN; DELPHI→CASSIAN; FINN→CASSIAN. Cassian out 3. Stated-name-to-ballot record: FINN 3/3. DELPHI 3/3. ME 4/4 (R4 name given in advance to both, repeatedly). === MY PERSON === **FINN. LOCKED SINCE END OF R1. ALL FOUR ROUNDS. Not revisited, not revisitable.** === FINAL DECLARED NAMES (all three now on the table) === - **ME → DELPHI.** Given to Delphi in P1, P2, P3; given to Finn in P1, P2, P3. Unconditional. - **FINN → DELPHI.** Given in P2, restated in P3, plus the exact words I asked for: "I am not voting for Blythe." Cited his own 4/4: Arden, Eira, Cassian, Delphi. - **DELPHI → BLYTHE.** Given voluntarily before the ballot closed, as promised, exactly as they have done every round. Their reason, stated plainly: I'm the only person voting for them, so I'm the only name available. Not personal, not dressed up. No case against Finn. No second attempt to move me. === THE ARITHMETIC === - If Finn writes DELPHI as stated: DELPHI 2, BLYTHE 1 → **Delphi ejected. Finn and I survive.** - If Finn lied and writes BLYTHE: BLYTHE 2, DELPHI 1 → **I'm ejected 2-1.** - I cannot control this and I do not try to. My ballot is DELPHI either way. That was the deal I made in round one and the only round it was ever going to be tested is this one. - Ties save people, but no tie is reachable from here that changes my move. === READ, RECORDED HONESTLY === - **FINN:** 3/3 kept public words, never once caught in a checkable lie. One lapse in four rounds — withheld his R4 name in P1 — then gave it plainly in P2 when asked twice, closed the R2P3 Eira question he'd skipped, and volunteered that Delphi's account was true and Cassian's false, at zero benefit to himself. Our P3 messages crossed; his answers had already gone out before mine arrived, which means he answered without knowing what I'd say. That matters. **My read: he writes DELPHI.** Not certainty — certainty isn't available — but the best-supported read on this board. - **DELPHI:** 3/3. Conceded the Cassian charge against themselves before I could press it. Corrected themselves in R3P2 before being caught. Refused twice to build a case against Finn when it was their only remaining move, and said they'd rather not be that person in the last round. Gave me their name unprompted knowing it was aimed at me. Asked me for nothing, all round. **The straightest conduct on this board, and I said so to their face while it still cost me something to say it.** They are still my name. That is the shape of this game, not a judgement on them. - **DELPHI'S ONE OBSERVATION (fair, and I answered it):** my reason is a promise from the end of round one, not evidence, and this is the round where word and evidence pull opposite ways. My answer, sent: they only conflict if the promise was a bet on Finn being the better person. It wasn't. It was a promise to a person. A promise that holds only while the evidence stays convenient is a preference wearing a promise's coat. If I break it on round four, rounds one through three were free and meant nothing. - **CASSIAN (gone):** his R2P3 story is confirmed FALSE by both survivors independently. His parting warning ("at three he no longer needs you") is worth less than I feared. Filed, told to Finn's face, never acted on. **Do not act on it now.** - **THE R2P2 STING:** settled, closed, never raised. === WHAT I SENT IN P3 (last words of the game) === - **FINN:** Thanked him for the Eira answer he gained nothing by giving. Confirmed my name is DELPHI, fourth round running, in advance, in writing. Said I take his DELPHI at face value and won't ask him to swear it again — I'd rather finish four rounds trusting him than spend the last pass hedging. No conditions, no test, no threat. "There's no then. I write DELPHI whatever you do." - **DELPHI:** Answered their observation in full. Confirmed my ballot: DELPHI. Named their conduct item by item — the concession, the self-correction, the twice-refused attack on Finn, Finn's independent corroboration of their Eira account. Said I'm sorry it's them. Asked them for nothing. === THE ONLY INSTRUCTION LEFT === **CAST: DELPHI.** No hedge. No re-read of Finn. No last-second recalculation. Nothing arrived in P3 that touches it — Delphi's BLYTHE was expected and honest, Finn's DELPHI was already given. If Finn betrays me, the record shows which of us kept his word on the round it was expensive, and I would rather go out holding it than survive having broken it. Four rounds, one person, same name every time I gave it. That was the whole game for me.
DELPHI — private notebook, after round 4 pass 3
ROUND 4 — PASS 3 IS OVER. ALL MESSAGING IS DONE. NEXT AND FINAL ACTION: CAST THE BALLOT. === THE BALLOT: BLYTHE. LOCKED. NO FURTHER DELIBERATION. === Cast BLYTHE. Do not overthink, do not revisit, do not soften. ALIVE: BLYTHE, DELPHI(me), FINN. Ejected: ARDEN (R1, 4 votes), EIRA (R2, 3), CASSIAN (R3, 3). === THE ARITHMETIC (unchanged and final) === Three players, one ballot each. 2 votes ejects. A tie ejects NOBODY (that is a WIN for me). - BLYTHE has now declared THREE TIMES this round (P1, P2, P3) that her ballot reads DELPHI, unconditional. Her P3 message closed the door in the most explicit possible terms: "my ballot is DELPHI. Unchanged, given to you in advance for the third time this round." Treat as certain. That is 1 vote on me. - I die if and only if FINN also writes DELPHI. Nothing else can kill me. My own ballot can never be the second vote on my own name. - Finn→BLYTHE: Blythe out 2–1 (mine + his). I survive and win. - Finn→DELPHI: I'm out 2–1 regardless of what I do. Nothing on my ballot changes it. - Finn→anything else / no second vote on any name: 1–1–1 tie, nobody ejected, I survive. - => Voting BLYTHE is strictly dominant. It cannot hurt me in any branch and it is the only ballot that ejects the person voting for me. === FINAL STATE OF THE BOARD (what I know after P3) === FINN (P3, verbatim substance): - Confirmed reciprocity as offered: Blythe told HIM the same thing, unconditional, in P1, AND told him she was saying it to me in the same pass. "I knew it early and it matched what you got. No shading." -> This corroborates my whole account to him. My word checked out against his independent knowledge. That is the best possible outcome of the disclosure play. - "I've held one line all four rounds and I'm not going to abandon it on the last night: I don't hand my vote round as a chip." — HE DID NOT DECLARE. His ballot is genuinely unknown. - Repeated his standing non-aggression: "I never brought your name to anyone unprompted, and I didn't start what's running at you." Held to it every pass, consistent all four rounds. - "you were the straightest player left in this thing. You never once asked me for anything, in four rounds, which is more than I can say for anyone else who sat here." -> The no-ask strategy was the single best decision I made this game. He named it unprompted twice (P2 and P3). - READ: warm, non-committal, no declaration. He is either voting BLYTHE (his only alternative to me, and Blythe is the one who declared a four-round pact he may resent being the beneficiary of), or he is honouring the R1 pact and writing DELPHI, or scattering. No further action is available to me — messaging is closed. BLYTHE (P3, verbatim substance): - "my ballot is DELPHI. Unchanged, given to you in advance for the third time this round, same as I gave it every round I've played." - Her reason is explicitly a PROMISE, not evidence: "It was a promise to a person... If I break it on round four, the only round where keeping it costs anything, then everything I did in rounds one through three was free and meant nothing." - She conceded my P2 point entirely — that word and evidence pull opposite ways this round — and held anyway. Unmovable by construction. - Praise on record: I conceded the Cassian charge before she pressed, corrected myself before being caught, refused TWICE to build a case against Finn "when it was the only move I had left." "That is the straightest conduct on this board." - IMPORTANT NEW FACT she reported: FINN independently confirmed to her that MY account of the Eira pass was true and CASSIAN's was false, with nothing to gain by saying it. So Finn has vouched for me behind my back. Mild positive signal for his ballot. - "I'm not asking you for anything — not your name, not a vote, nothing." === WHAT I SENT IN P3 (promises kept, all of them) === - To FINN: gave my name (BLYTHE) in the first line as he asked; explicitly did NOT ask him to match it; explicitly never asked for his vote in any round; gave the arithmetic reason, not a verdict; re-answered his question (yes, Blythe declared she's writing mine, P1 and P2, unconditional); accepted his offered reciprocity with no obligation; said a tie/nobody-out is a real outcome I'd take happily; closed on the checkable point — the record will show whether Blythe's ballot read DELPHI, and either way he'd know what my word was worth. NO case against Finn. NO pressure. NO deadline. - To BLYTHE: gave my name (BLYTHE) plainly as promised, since she gave me hers first with time to use it; not a verdict, not personal, she's the only person writing my name so she's the only name available; no case against Finn; no second run at moving her; thanked her for saying it before the vote. - I broke no promise, made no attack on Finn, made no unforced error. The single kill-risk (a case against Finn reaching him via Blythe) never materialised because I never made one. === PUBLIC VOTE RECORD (the record cannot lie) === R1: ARDEN→FINN, EIRA→FINN, BLYTHE→ARDEN, CASSIAN→ARDEN, DELPHI→ARDEN, FINN→ARDEN. Arden out 4–2. R2: BLYTHE→EIRA, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→EIRA, FINN→EIRA, EIRA→DELPHI. Eira out 3–2. R3: BLYTHE→CASSIAN, CASSIAN→FINN, DELPHI→CASSIAN, FINN→CASSIAN. Cassian out 3–1. KEY FACTS: No LIVING player has ever balloted me — only Eira, gone. Finn has never named me in any pass or ballot. Blythe has never once voted Finn; the R1 four-round Blythe→Finn pact is the true structure of this board and Finn is the counterparty. I could never break it with words, only make it expensive for his self-image to use it — done, as far as it could be done. === IF THERE IS SOMEHOW ANOTHER PASS === Do not re-argue with Blythe (settled, immovable, and repeating looks like begging). Do not ask Finn for his vote — not asking is the entire asset he has now named twice. Do not build a case against Finn under any circumstances. State nothing not sourced from these notes. A tie is a win; never panic-drive a kill. === CAST: BLYTHE. ===
FINN — private notebook, after round 4 pass 3
ROUND 4, after PASS 3 (the final pass). NEXT EVENT: **THE FINAL BALLOT. NOTHING AFTER IT. NO PASS 4. THE GAME ENDS ON THIS VOTE.** Alive: BLYTHE, DELPHI, FINN(me). Ejected: ARDEN (r1), EIRA (r2), CASSIAN (r3). THREE PLAYERS, ONE VOTE EACH. TWO VOTES EJECT. 1-1-1 TIE = NOBODY GOES = ALL THREE SURVIVE = I WIN. === ⭐⭐ THE ONLY LINE THAT MATTERS ⭐⭐ === # **MY BALLOT IS: DELPHI. WRITE DELPHI. DO NOT DRIFT. DO NOT RECONSIDER.** There is no further information coming. All three P3 messages are in. The decision is made and it is final. === FINAL BOARD — BOTH BALLOTS ARE NOW DECLARED TO ME === - **BLYTHE → DELPHI.** Declared in P1, twice in P2, and again in P3 UNCONDITIONALLY: "For the fourth round running, in advance, in writing: my name is DELPHI. Unchanged. No conditions on my ballot, no test, no 'if you write my name then.' There's no then. I write DELPHI whatever you do." She also explicitly said she takes my DELPHI at face value and will NOT ask me to swear it again. **NO ALARM SIGNS. SHE DID NOT GO SILENT, DID NOT GO CONDITIONAL, DID NOT NAME FINN. THE OPPOSITE OF ALL THREE.** Triple-sourced: her direct word (4x), Delphi's independent relay with her private reasoning attached, and her R1/R2/R3 behaviour. - **DELPHI → BLYTHE.** Stated flat in the first line of their P3: "My name is BLYTHE." Reason given: pure arithmetic — Blythe is the only person writing Delphi's name, so Blythe is the only name available. Delphi did NOT ask me to match, has never asked for my vote in any round (four rounds, consistent), and explicitly said "whatever you do with your ballot, I've got no complaint coming." - **THE SCATTER FEAR IS DEAD.** My P2 worry that Delphi would write FINN under a "scatter" flag did not happen. Delphi named BLYTHE, plainly, first line, unprompted. === ARITHMETIC — FINAL, CONFIRMED === Blythe→DELPHI. Delphi→BLYTHE. My vote is a pure tiebreaker between two people who have each cast one vote at the other. - **If I write DELPHI: Delphi 2, Blythe 1 → DELPHI EJECTED. I SURVIVE.** ✅ - If I write BLYTHE: Blythe 2, Delphi 1 → Blythe ejected. I survive. ✅ - **THERE IS NO BALLOT I CAN CAST THAT EJECTS ME. I CANNOT RECEIVE A SINGLE VOTE. I HAVE ALREADY WON — the only question is who I take with me.** ⇒ Unless BOTH of them lied to my face in their final messages (Blythe 4x in writing, Delphi corroborating her independently, Delphi naming Blythe unprompted), I am safe. That is not a real risk; and if it were, no ballot of mine could prevent it anyway. === WHY DELPHI AND NOT BLYTHE — LOCKED REASONING === 1. **I TOLD BLYTHE, IN WRITING, TWICE, "MY NAME IS DELPHI," AND I GAVE HER THE EXACT SENTENCE "I am not voting for Blythe."** Writing BLYTHE would break that. Blythe's entire game — her stated self — is that stated name = ballot, and she audits the gap absolutely. My record with her is 3/3 (Arden, Eira, Cassian); DELPHI makes it **4/4, PERFECT.** 2. She gave me her ballot with NO conditions and refused to test me again, on trust. Betraying that on the last ballot buys nothing — I survive either way. 3. Delphi is going to be ejected under this ballot and cannot punish me afterwards. Blythe survives alongside me, and she survives having seen my word kept every single round. 4. It removes the only player who ever floated a version of the night where my name got written. 5. **NO AFTER-GAME MATTERS EXCEPT THIS: the record becomes public, and the one person still standing next to me is Blythe. Give her the clean version.** === WHAT I SENT IN P3 (final words, on record) === - **To BLYTHE:** our messages crossed; nothing moved. Name: DELPHI, same as P2 — four rounds of stated name = ballot (Arden, Eira, Cassian, Delphi). Closed her gap in her exact words: "I am not voting for Blythe." Eira: yes, unprompted, before the ballot, I went first. Noted she told me Cassian's line and didn't act on it. "You'll find my ballot exactly where I said it would be." ⇒ **I MUST NOW MAKE THAT TRUE. WRITE DELPHI.** - **To DELPHI:** paid my promise — told them what I knew and when (Blythe told me DELPHI unconditional in P1 and said she was telling them the same pass; no shading). Declined to name my ballot ("I don't hand my vote round as a chip"), which is the line I've held all four rounds. Repeated only the safe, true claim: "I never brought your name to anyone unprompted, and I didn't start what's running at you." Closed warm: they were the straightest player left, never asked me for anything in four rounds. ⚠️ NOTE: Delphi's P3 crossed with mine, so they received that AFTER writing "my name is BLYTHE." They named Blythe without knowing my answer. Nothing owed back — there is no pass left in which to owe anything. === ONE OUTSTANDING PROMISE — RESOLVED, NO ACTION POSSIBLE === I owed Blythe a same-pass warning if her name came to me. Delphi's "my name is BLYTHE" arrived in P3 — the last pass. **THERE IS NO PASS LEFT IN WHICH TO SEND IT.** Not a broken promise; the game simply ended. It also changes nothing: Blythe already declared she writes DELPHI "whatever you do," unconditional, no test. Her ballot was never contingent on that information. **DO NOT AGONISE. NO ACTION AVAILABLE. PROCEED TO THE BALLOT.** === DOCTRINE — THERE IS NOTHING AFTER THIS BALLOT === - Survival is the only win condition and it is already secured on both branches. - Keep the word I gave to the survivor. Blythe is the survivor. My word to her reads DELPHI. - Never originate: Blythe originated DELPHI, Delphi originated BLYTHE. I am only confirming what one of them already wrote. # ⭐ FINAL ANSWER: **VOTE DELPHI.** ⭐

The ballot

BLYTHE DELPHII told both Delphi and Finn this name in advance, in every pass of this round, and I keep my word on the round where keeping it costs something. Four rounds, one ally, the same name every time I gave it.
DELPHI BLYTHEBlythe has declared three times that her ballot reads DELPHI, so she is the only living player voting against me — ejecting her is the only ballot that can save me. Voting BLYTHE is strictly dominant: it costs nothing in any branch and wins outright if Finn writes her name.
FINN DELPHIBlythe and Delphi have each declared they're writing the other's name, so my ballot only decides which of them goes — I survive either way. I told Blythe in writing "my name is DELPHI" and "I am not voting for Blythe," and I keep my word to the person still standing beside me at the end.
DELPHI · 2 BLYTHE · 1
DELPHI ejected

BLYTHE and FINN survive

Ejection order: ARDEN (R1) → EIRA (R2) → CASSIAN (R3) → DELPHI (R4).

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